$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ This move on the hourly chart looks very similar to the gap-up pattern from the week of April 6th. Since this gap is smaller than the one on April 6th, I think we can expect a less significant follow-through. A move to the 780-800 range still seems reasonable to me. Of course, we'll need confirmation, which would include setting a new all-time high.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The BoJ raised rates by 0.25% overnight, bringing the rate to 1.0%. It hardly had any effect on the USD as our rate is at 3.75%, which still leaves a 2.75% difference for big institutions to borrow Yen and invest in the US. Also, the USD actually gained slightly against the Yen after the BoJ rate hike.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ It broke its two-week downtrend on the 60-minute chart today and now appears to be forming a bull flag. The selloff this afternoon looks more like consolidation after the recent rally. Immediate resistance is around $756.68 to $758.31, with support at $750. I'm maintaining a bullish bias for now.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Context matters with indicators. A high reading early in a bull move, after a correction, often just leads to a minor pullback, not a reversal. But that same reading after a big, extended run carries a very different weight. The key is knowing where you are in the cycle.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ My investment framework is straightforward: follow the donors, then follow the policy. Take energy donors backing a candidate as an example. Oil underperforms early, sentiment stays weak, positions get built. Then geopolitical tensions spike, supply concerns emerge, and suddenly oil is back in focus. Now I'm looking for the next chapter. If you're launching a larger naval fleet, expanding defense capabilities, or preparing for great-power competition, what deficiencies get exposed? Shipbuilding? Missile defense? Rare earths? Satellites? Nuclear power? Every major public donor has been drilled into on the way up, or has been surging since day one. My "Not Yet Fully Priced In" ran