There's been a series of incredibly bullish AI headlines, data points, commentary, and actual earnings results for the company and companies across the broader ecosystem over the past several months to a year. Meanwhile, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's share price and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 's performance are what they are.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Using weekend Wall Street moves to predict Monday's market is a bit like using Monopoly money to forecast forex. It might point in the right direction, but it's not the real thing.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Here's my take on the market. I believe we're still in a bull market, and I think the major indices will finish 2026 higher than current levels. I also expect the semiconductor sector to perform well for the rest of the year, with names like NVDA and AVGO ending 2026 above where they are now. However, I'm less convinced that some of the high-momentum names that have pulled back will fully recover this year. On my end, I'm holding my semiconductor positions, managing some of those momentum holdings, and gradually building positions in companies I believe are positioned to be AI winners. I'm also looking for shorter-term trading opportunities and aiming to exit those quicker.
$Intel(INTC)$ I'm getting the sense there could be a quick relief bounce before any further downside. I'm watching for a potential reversal around the 92 - 94 range. We might see that move play out soon.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The chart looks pretty rough, almost like something bears would love to see. It's not a pleasant sight to look at, honestly. But I think the eventual move higher will come, whether that's in a couple of months or by 2027. $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Honestly, it feels like the bears might be out of steam here. To me, there's a chance we could see a large-scale breakout with some momentum.