Bull case
• Reclaiming the 200-week MA is historically a major regime signal for Bitcoin.
• Spot ETF flows via iShares Bitcoin Trust and broader institutional access have structurally deepened demand.
• If macro liquidity stays supportive, $95K to $110K becomes reachable.
Bear case
• Crypto remains sensitive to rates, regulation and leverage flushes.
• A break below $80K could quickly reopen $68K to $60K retest risk.
My bias: higher probability that the bottom is in, but confirmation needs weekly closes above $80K.
How to play:
• Safer beta: iShares Bitcoin Trust
• Higher torque: Coinbase / Circle Internet Group
• Highest risk/highest upside: direct Bitcoin exposure
My pick: IBIT for core, COIN for upside optionality.
#Not proper financial advice.
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