To The Moon

Is Something Big Really Happening? Why (I think) Silicon Valley and Wall Street are so terrified of disruption this time. Software and growth stocks are getting hammered as investors price in a high likelihood of disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) across the board. What solidified this freak-out in my mind was a viral post called Something Big Is Happening that reads like “my programming job is being replaced by AI, and you’re next.” What’s the fuss all about? What’s signal and what’s noise? I think we need to take a step back and look at who is being impacted by AI today and why they’re so worried. No surprise, the fear of disruption is emanating from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The market isn’t worried about farming jobs. Or construction jobs. Or manufacturing. Or retail. T

Any discussion of $Walt Disney(DIS)$ ’s long-term strategy needs to start with entertainment. If the studios aren’t producing hit content, nothing else really matters for Disney. Unfortunately, Disney no longer breaks out results from studios, cable, and streaming, so we get this conglomerate look at the entertainment business overall. Within these results, we do know that cable is in decline. In fiscal 2025, linear network revenue was down 16% to $2.06 billion, and operating income dropped 21% to $391 million. There’s no indication that the decline has stopped, but it’s being overcome by growth at studios and streaming. I’ll start with studios, which include Disney Animation, Lucasfilm, Marvel, and Pixar. The box office is showing us that Disney i

No matter the company, stock values don’t go up in a straight line. They’re volatile depending on the market’s mood, comments on conference calls, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and even the weather. That volatility can be maddening, but we need to keep in mind that the key is buying great companies that can grow for a long time and just hang on for the ride. For example… 1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon’s growth chart looks like a steady climb up and to the right. And in many ways, it was with growth rates over 20% for most of the last two decades. But the stock performance was very different. There were drawdowns (the stock price decline from its peak) of as much as 65% and it often took years to get back to previous highs. 2.

$HIMS is shaking up the pharma space, challenging $NVO’s patents in a high-stakes bet that could disrupt the weight loss market. Both $NVO and $LLY face significant downside risk if litigation goes against them, making this a fascinating clash between nimble disruptors and Big Pharma. Meanwhile, $MGM is quietly reducing its float, repurchasing 5.5% of shares in a single quarter, signaling confidence amid broader market volatility. Investors should watch legal battles and corporate capital moves alike for asymmetric opportunities. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ My gut feeling is that $HIMS is playing the ultimate disruption card. They’re pushing so hard Novo sues, which ultimately leads to Novo defending — and potentially invalidating — the

In 2015, Sam Altman and Elon Musk founded OpenAI in part out of fear that $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ would dominate AI if someone else didn’t get there first. When the ChatGPT moment hit in November 2022, the conventional wisdom was that Google’s moment of disruption had arrived. The company was behind in AI models, didn’t have compelling products, and was slow and unimaginative in releasing products. The criticisms were valid at the time. What Google did have was infrastructure and distribution. If it caught up on models and product, the threat could be snuffed out. The question was: Could ChatGPT become the go-to application for artificial intelligence before Google turned the search bar, Chrom

The market favors companies that own demand and scale. $NFLX shows how dominating customer choice beats short-term profits, while $NVO faces pressure from competition and falling prices—highlighting the advantage of demand aggregators like $HIMS. 1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ I didn't understand Netflix $NFLX 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are within shouting distance of their all-time highs, but it doesn’t feel that way for most investors. The market’s gains have been concentrated in some huge moves in semiconductor and mining-related stocks. On the other side of the market is the decline in stocks like $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ that seem like rock-solid growth companies. I think there are discounts forming in certain areas of the market, although the ride will likel

In 1997, 20% of U.S. households had access to the internet. A dozen years later, owners of iconic newspapers like the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and many more had filed for bankruptcy. Disruption came quickly for newspapers once publishing online became trivial. Contrast that to streaming, which has taken much longer to disrupt traditional TV and film media. $Netflix(NFLX)$ launched streaming in 2007, and 19 years later, one of the companies that should have been disrupted the most, $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ , is being acquired by Netflix itself for $83 billion. Disruption happens at different speeds in different industries, and there are good reasons why. Different indu

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Two really bad news items recently related to Rivian. 1. The Trump Administration cancelling DOE loans. Rivian was approved for $6.6B to build Georgia just before Biden left office, but still doesn't have the $$$. Will it ever get it? 2. Rivian's autonomy product was well received, but $General Motors(GM)$ just announced a similar sensor and technology product launching in 2028. GM will have scale in autonomy before Rivian does, so Rivian's in-house development will once again be up against a competitor with more scale over which to spread development costs. If #1 gets cancelled, Rivian is doomed. Even if it doesn't, #2 probably means Rivian won't have much upside in autonomy

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Volatility is the price we pay for market-beating returns. We're seeing the downside of that volatility today, but the long-term fundamental trends in revenue and margins are exactly what we want to see. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ These charts are telling. 1. Tesla's operating profit is collapsing. 2. Analysts (and investors) continue to over-estimate the company's revenue growth...which is now negative. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports