To The Moon

One of the reasons I default to “never” selling stocks is that we never know when a stock will move higher or what will drive the move.I try to find companies that can compound revenue and earnings over a long period of time because that long-term view is our advantage over the market. But that doesn’t mean the ride will be a straight line higher.Take $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as an example. The stock has been an incredible performer over the past two decades.But to realize those gains, you would have had to ride out drops of over 80% multiple times.How does selling play a role, even when we own phenomenal long-term stocks?Something Has ChangedIf the thesis on a stock I own has changed, it might be time to sell.I did this with previous Asymmetric Investing s

I think investors' misunderstanding of the autonomy market (valuing $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ etc like tech companies) comes down to software vs hardware.In software, you can ship something that's not perfect. But you build a user base and make it better over time, which is a flywheel of users and resources and distribution...ohh my! In hardware, you get one shot to get it right. If you design a plane that costs $1 per mile, but it crashes 5% of the time, you have no customers. A plane that costs $100 per mile but never crashes wins the market.In autonomy, safety is first. Pass that safety bar, and we can start t

While hedge funds may blow up on a regular basis, they have an incentive to do so.Hedge fund managers make money based on the returns they generate for their investors. And they attract money based on outsized returns that attract attention. Just beating the market by a narrow margin each year isn’t enough.Put it this way, it’s in a hedge fund’s interest to bet on “Red” at the roulette table and have a 49% chance of doubling their money and a 51% chance of going bust. The upside of having a 100% return year is potentially 10x-ing the size of your fund. Go bust, and they can start over again.Our personal portfolios don’t work that way.But avoiding going bust is relatively straightforward.Avoid LeverageNearly every investing horror story starts with leverage.Margin is what wipes out investor

Results are in, and I think this product could be huge for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . 5 Takeaways1. Faster than going to a doctor.2. More transparent data (democratizing access to data). 3. Lower cost.4. Opens new verticals for HIMS.5. Deepens relationship and adds value beyond subscriptions. Ex. I may start using $HIMS recipes to improve nutrition. I didn't know they had that until yesterday. Exercise next? It's all about aggregating demand. And aggregating demand comes from adding value to users. HIMS does this in spades with labs. Excited to see what's next. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as

Here's what I mean by "needs more scrutiny". $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's inventory falls when demand starts picking up in a cycle. In 2023, ChatGPT is exploding and GPU demand is off the charts, so inventory days (green below) drops. NVIDIA's inventory typically builds as the rate of growth slows. But there's a lag from the build of inventory to the drop-off in growth to historically eventually negative revenue growth.The reason this is important is the orange line, which is gross margins (pricing power). NVIDIA's high profits are driven by high margins. If inventory rises and pricing power falls, margins fall as well.Maybe the cycle continues, maybe it doesn't. But it's something you should consider given the regular drawdowns of 50%+ that NVIDIA goes thr

I was one of the first people to sign up for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ lab testing when it was announced last week.I quickly scheduled a time to get my labs done and broke the bank with the $499 advanced plan. It’s research, after all.Signup and Pre-LabsAs you would expect, signing up for Labs is a straightforward process. Hims & Hers is a typical modern tech company, and with a few clicks, I had paid for and scheduled my labs. I already had an account, so I had a bit of a head start; however, I think the setup process for an account took less than five minutes.Needless to say, this was easier than going to a doctor’s office.The app’s homepage then displayed all the necessary information about my appointment (I cropped some of the pe

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of

1. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Rising financing costs creates a death spiral for companies. To grow, they need more debt.As more debt is added debt costs go up making it harder to grow profitably. Problem is, if they stop the growth cycle the stock drops. If they keep going, it could get worse... 2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ These were always unsustainable "businesses" doomed to burn speculators. 3. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS lab testing complete. My experience: ⏰ 15 minutes from appt time to walking out the door🧪 9 vials of blood🎙️ Ample notifications about time and location from the

The stock market is still trading near all-time highs, and for stock investors, there appears to be little concern about potential risks from the economy, AI, or other factors at present. Earnings are strong and interest rates are coming down, so 🚀!But the stock market doesn’t run the world.The bond market does.The bond market is ten times the size of the equity market, and bond investors are more concerned about risk than opportunity. They aren’t worried about the asymmetric upside we have with stocks because…there isn’t that much upside in bonds. The upside is you get paid back with interest.That’s it!So, when bond investors start demanding more for taking even the smallest risks, we need to pay attention. And yields are up in places you wouldn’t think they could be. I’ll get to more in

1. $Uber(UBER)$ and $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ remain two of the best risk/reward opportunities on the market. As autonomy proliferates, they'll see costs come down, margins rise, and 10x+ market expansion. The trend is clear as day. 2.The foundation of Disney $Walt Disney(DIS)$ 's operations is the parks ($10 billion in OI and growing double-digits). But the operating leverage in streaming is starting to become evident and that could be a double-digit growth business for a decade. 3. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Quick reminder, there's a company out there compounding revenue at 77% and trading for just 4x sales. For SG us