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wormsccc
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2021-05-18
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2021-05-11
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2021-05-06
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2021-04-29
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The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'
事件:美国时间2021年4月28日,美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明,美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”,符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变
The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'
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2021-03-30
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Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business
朝云集团向外界秀了一下自己的“肌肉”。3月26日,朝云集团发布2020年年度业绩公告。公告显示,朝云集团2020年实现营业收入17.02亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长23%;年内溢利2.33亿元,同比
Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business
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wormsccc
wormsccc
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2021-03-27
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The market value exceeds Gree's 200 billion, and Gao Ling plus Dong Mingzhu can't do a beautiful thing?
从家电巨头到科技集团,5700亿美的的蜕变之路。 1980年,美的带着第一台“明珠牌”电风扇进军家电行业。 经过40年的深耕,熬过了春兰、海尔、格力后,美的成为了家电行业的绝对龙头。 2020年,在
The market value exceeds Gree's 200 billion, and Gao Ling plus Dong Mingzhu can't do a beautiful thing?
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wormsccc
wormsccc
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2021-03-21
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The latest list of warehousing stocks of northern funds was released, and 13 shares were violently swept
本周三大股指周K线集体报收企稳小阴线,上证指数下跌1.4%,深成指下跌2.09%,创业板指数下跌3.09%,均较前一周跌幅大幅收窄。 本周北上资金继续保持净流入,但周五净卖出40.32亿元,终结了连续
The latest list of warehousing stocks of northern funds was released, and 13 shares were violently swept
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wormsccc
wormsccc
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2021-01-29
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American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!
据币安平台报价,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%,现报0.0843美元/枚。此前,掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说
American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!
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14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131309849","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"事件:美国时间2021年4月28日,美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明,美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”,符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变","content":"<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131309849","content_text":"事件:美国时间2021年4月28日,美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明,美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”,符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变化:1)强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”,而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”(strengthened)。我们认为这与3月经济数据显著好于2月有关。2)明显调整有关通胀的表述,或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”,而本次声明删去了这一表述,改为“通胀上升,主要反映了暂时性因素。” 我们的基准测算显示,由于基数效应,美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。3)对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”(considerable),而本次仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。这与美国疫情防控和疫苗接种效果有关。3、 鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派,但略显“优柔寡断”,市场并不买账。1)经济:有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思,鲍威尔说,一是部分经济数据很好(very good),二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2)通胀:有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”,鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应,当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”,鲍威尔说,通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大,而且关键问题不是能不能达到(某一水平)、而是何时达到(when)。3)削减QE:有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering,鲍威尔说,现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4)资产价格:“一些资产价格很高,你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫,这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系,但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后,美股三大股指集体收跌,其中道指跌0.48%,标普跌0.08%,纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%,美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”?市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号,例如,目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”(inflection point)、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪?但是,鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为,现阶段,美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”(accommodative),或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”(outcome-based)的决策机制,因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是,美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势,可能有两种截然不同的方向:一种是复苏“受阻”,这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性;另一种是复苏“过强”,这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据:疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1)圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示,对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算,美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”,可能需要到7月左右。2)基数效应下,预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧:一方面是“力度”,是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹,还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发?另一方面是“持续时间”,是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”,还是供需矛盾将客观持续,又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高,美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日,美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中,货币政策部分“只字未改”,符合市场预期。与3月相比,2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”,即主要货币政策维持不变,包括:维持法定和超额准备金利率(0.10%),维持联邦基金利率(0-0.25%),维持资产购买节奏(每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS),继续购买CMBS,继续执行回购协议操作等(图表1)。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化,整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化(图表2):1)强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”,而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”(strengthened),且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2)明显调整有关通胀的表述,或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”,而本次声明删去了这一表述,改为“通胀上升,主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据,预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3)对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出,公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力,但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为,这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关,这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外,3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”(considerable),而本次删去了形容词,仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化?我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出,虽然仅相隔一个半月,但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景,与3月会议有显著区别。第一,美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动,美国经济数据再度低迷,而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观,例如3月非农就业大增(图表3),4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降(图表4),表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二,3月开始基数效应显现,美国3月通胀指标(CPI和PPI)已经大幅抬头(图表5、图表6)。我们的基准测算显示,美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE(个人消费支出指数)。根据美联储3月的最新预测(2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%),我们测算,2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%,以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径,可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上,其中4月和5月可能迎来高点,分别达到2.75%和2.77%(图表7)。需注意,这仅为保守估计,近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀,例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此,即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径,目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三,美国疫情控制情况良好(图表8),疫苗接种持续推进(图表9)。相较3月,现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”,市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派,但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括:1)对经济的表述:复苏仍然不平衡、不完整,劳动力市场状况继续改善,失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思,鲍威尔说,一是部分经济数据很好(very good),二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2)对通胀的表述:我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升,且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下,不太可能看到通胀持续上升;今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”,鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应,当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”,鲍威尔说,通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大,而且关键问题不是能否达到(某一水平)、而是何时达到(when)。3)对削减QE的回复:有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering(缩减QE),鲍威尔说,现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候,经济活动最近刚刚回升,要达到标准还需要一段时间。4)关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高,你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫,这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系,但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5)关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答,美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的,需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后,市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间,美国三大股指小幅上涨;但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后,三大股指短线下跌,最终集体收跌,其中道指跌0.48%,标普跌0.08%,纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后,10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%;美元指数下行至90.6左右;黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”?4月议息会议前,市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”,但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如,目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”(inflection point)、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪?但是,很明显,鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊,略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为,现阶段,美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”(accommodative),或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”(outcome-based)的决策机制,因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是,美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势,可能有两种截然不同的方向:一种是复苏“受阻”,这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性;另一种是复苏“过强”,这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间,对于美联储政策动向的跟踪,我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据:疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关,虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中,但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示,对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算,美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”,可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下,预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着,6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧:一方面是“力度”,是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹,还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发?另一方面是“持续时间”,是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”,还是供需矛盾将客观持续,又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高,美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355787386,"gmtCreate":1617106413645,"gmtModify":1704695888482,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571822975434375","authorIdStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355787386","repostId":"1148049485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148049485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617103724,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148049485?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-30 19:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148049485","media":"投资界","summary":"朝云集团向外界秀了一下自己的“肌肉”。3月26日,朝云集团发布2020年年度业绩公告。公告显示,朝云集团2020年实现营业收入17.02亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长23%;年内溢利2.33亿元,同比","content":"<p>Chaoyun Group showed its \"muscles\" to the outside world.</p><p>On March 26th, Chaoyun Group released its 2020 annual results announcement. According to the announcement, Chaoyun Group achieved an operating income of 1.702 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3% and an adjusted high growth of 32.4%, with both revenue and net profit increasing. In addition, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend plan recommended by the board of directors, which is less than a month after its listing.</p><p>Chaoyun Group, which is positioned as a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, successfully landed in Hong Kong stocks on March 10th this year, with a market value of more than HK$ 11 billion. It owns many well-known brands such as Chaowei, Beibeijian, Weiwang, Runzhisu, Stubborn Tail, DUX Deshi and Xilan.</p><p>Behind Chaoyun Group is Chen Danxia, a post-80s helm. It is worth mentioning that this is the first annual performance report released by the new management team led by Chen Danxia one and a half years after they arrived. This performance completely exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the management level of the new team and the forward-looking positioning of the future business development direction.</p><p>The performance report shows that the revenue of pet care products of Chaoyun Group has increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, which has become a bright spot. Next, Chaoyun Group will fully enter pet care to meet the high growth opportunities in the pet industry. It must be known that this is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market.</p><p><b>Chaoyun Group 2020 Report Card:</b></p><p><b>Received 1.7 billion yuan a year and received another 24 million yuan of investment</b></p><p>Chaoyun Group, which has only been listed for 20 days, has already experienced ups and downs. Although the IPO broke on the first day, the investment sentiment is still strong and the market attention is extremely high. During the major adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, it is not easy for a new stock to get out of the reverse upward curve. This performance report has delivered another bright answer sheet.</p><p>On 26 March, Chaoyun Group Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Chaoyun Group\", 6601.HK) released its 2020 annual results. According to the announcement, the company achieved an operating income of RMB1.702 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46567580bfc84b25d3476727721fe902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As we all know, in 2020, due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various industries were affected to varying degrees, and against this backdrop, Chaoyun Group still showed strong profitability and its full-year results exceeded expectations. At the same time, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend payment plan proposed by the board of directors, and has proposed to pay dividends at a dividend payout ratio of 25% for 2020 profitability.</p><p>Not only that, with the steady growth of core financial indicators, Chaoyun Group's capital reserves are even more sufficient. According to the results announcement, the gross profit margin of Chaoyun Group in 2020 was RMB742.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; As at 31 December 2020, the Group's cash and cash equivalents and various deposits amounted to RMB885 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.13% as compared with the end of 2019.</p><p>In 2020, Chaoyun Group's product categories continued to improve and achieved full-category growth. Among them, the revenue of pet care products increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, and the revenue of home care products and personal care products increased by 20% and 51.7% respectively.</p><p>In addition, the comprehensive expansion of sales channels was also a highlight of Chaoyun Group's performance last year.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chaoyun Group's online and offline omni-channel coverage business has grown rapidly. Since 2018, its self-built e-commerce team has developed online business, and it has rapidly fissioned from a single store to 26 self-operated stores and more than 20 online channels, with a year-on-year growth of 92.8% in 2020. The revenue of self-operated online stores increased by 121.5%, which will be beneficial to the growth of gross profit; OFFLINE has more than 1,200 offline distributors, approximately 620,000 sales outlets, 48 major customers and 11,000 retail outlets covering all provinces and all prefecture-level cities in China, fully penetrating tier 1 to tier 5 cities, and its revenue increased by 14.4% year-on-year in 2020.</p><p>The strong coverage of offline channels and the clear profit model of online channels are the cornerstones of sustainable development of consumer goods enterprises under the Internet economy. Especially today, with the growth rate of third-tier cities in China exceeding that of first-and second-tier cities, rapid and effective penetration into low-tier cities through strong distribution capabilities is the key to offline sustainable development; The rapid development of online business, the expansion of emerging channel communities and the layout of home-to-home business are also a major increase in the future development of the company.</p><p>According to the equity data of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chaoyun Group was recently increased by 3.56 million shares by Morgan Stanley, involving an investment of about RMB 24.25 million. After the increase, the latest number of shares held is about 80,543,100 shares, and the latest shareholding ratio is 6.04%. This also just proves the unexpected performance of Chaoyun Group, which has once again been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>The second generation of the post-80s generation is at the helm,</b></p><p><b>Creating a tracked learning organization</b></p><p>The unexpected development of Chaoyun Group can't be separated from the helm behind it-Chen Danxia.</p><p>Chen Danxia started her business in 2004 while studying at the University of Sydney, Australia. In 2008, she parachuted to Gaozi as the general manager and became the chairman of Gaozi in 2014. Faced with many difficulties at that time, Chen Danxia made drastic reforms as soon as she took office, starting from four aspects: team building, channel expansion, organizational structure reconstruction and series of new product development. Soon, Gaozi achieved contrarian growth within two years, maintaining a growth rate of more than 50% for many consecutive years, becoming the first case of a domestic daily chemical giant acquiring a cosmetics company and successfully transforming.</p><p>After this battle, Chen Danxia gained more recognition as a second generation post-80s, and began to take charge of Chaowei Division, the predecessor of Chaoyun Group. In 2018, she reorganized the businesses of a number of companies in Chaowei Division to form Chaoyun Group. In 2019, Chen Danxia became the chairman and CEO of Chaoyun Group, set up a brand-new management team and e-commerce business team, reorganized the offline business team, and further quickly implemented the strategic layout of multi-brands and multi-categories.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a275f5c8a5f70ab8723996d4620cff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Compared with the top 500 consumer goods enterprises in the world, if a consumer goods enterprise wants to become bigger and stronger, it must have the ability to operate in multiple brands and categories, and build a crawler development team. In the past, the Chinese market lacked teams with multi-brand, multi-category operation and successful comprehensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, which is the advantage of Chaoyun Group's management team.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chen Danxia and her management team have rich industry experience across platforms, channels and fields, spanning cosmetics, daily chemicals, maternal and infant products, pets and e-commerce. He also has extensive experience and international perspective in rapid integration of domestic and overseas mergers and acquisitions. The team members have an average of more than 15 years of experience in the industry and have worked for companies under Chaoyun Group for an average of more than 10 years.</p><p>It is reported that Chen Danxia is low-key and good at learning. She is very good at strategy formulation and dismantling of online and offline businesses. She has her own unique experience and intuition for brand management and incubation, and spends a lot of energy with the team every day. Since taking office as CEO of Chaoyun, she has personally led the team, and through the general meeting of the center on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, she has ensured that the coordination direction of the seven centers of Chaoyun Group is consistent; Each center will also hold weekly meetings and monthly reviews to ensure that the secondary departments under each center have a consistent coordination direction, and form a top-down organization with unified thinking and consistent actions. During the epidemic, Chaoyun Group held more than 3,000 training sessions for more than 1,000 offline dealers in one month, helping more than 100,000 dealers cope with the new retail pattern in the new consumption era after the epidemic. In addition, she also set up Chaoyun College, requiring all centers to train and cultivate talents for echelons within their respective jurisdictions, so as to build an organizational structure of multi-brand and multi-category consumer goods group, a tracked talent incubation system and an empowering gene to attract external talents.</p><p>With excellent multi-brand and multi-category operation capabilities and strong organizational management capabilities, Chen Danxia led Chaoyun team to successfully incubate a number of industry leading brands and create a strategy of thousands of people. They have invested a lot of energy and money in research and development, and carried out multi-brand and tracked layout on products for each category of products to meet the different needs of consumers, which is rare in the industry.</p><p>In addition, qualification and compliance capabilities are also indispensable factors for the rapid development of Chaoyun Group. It is reported that Chaoyun Group has formulated strict standards for many processes such as market access, production, quality control and sewage discharge. Whether it is mosquito repellent, insect killing, disinfection and sterilization, pet care, personal care and other industries, there are very high access qualification requirements.</p><p>In the end, Chaoyun Group built a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, and was able to achieve outstanding results against the trend in 2020.</p><p><b>Enter pet care in an all-round way,</b></p><p><b>This is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market</b></p><p>How much imagination does Chaoyun Group have for future growth?</p><p>According to the CIC Report, China's pet care, home care and personal care markets are the three fastest growing segments, and the CAGR of retail sales of pet care, home care and personal care markets between 2019 and 2024 is expected to be 17.8%, 8.7% and 8.9%, respectively. It is estimated that in 2024, the home care market will reach 69.4 billion, the personal care market will reach 701.4 billion, and the pet market will also exceed 100 billion.</p><p>In addition, Guotai Junan Research also pointed out that with the increase and increase of single youth and social pressure, the number of pets keeping has gradually increased, mainly cats and dogs, reaching 100 million in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32d0a8cd2f6a976804c9b2fde0af8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It can be seen that the future development of Chaoyun Group's core categories has a huge incremental space, which has been reflected in the performance report.</p><p>According to the performance report, Chaoyun Group began to enter the pet care sector with fast growth and high gross profit in 2019. The newly created brand \"Stubborn Tail\" ranked first in Tmall's pet perfume deodorization category four months after its listing. In 2020, the total revenue of Chaoyun Group's pet care business increased by more than 10 times. From 2021 to 2022, Chaoyun Group will launch a total of 62 new products, including 31 pet care products, accounting for half of the proportion, which shows that Chaoyun Group attaches great importance to emerging categories.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that whenever Chaoyun Group chooses to enter a new category, it will first use the integration capability of the supply chain to build a competitive advantage and ensure that it provides high-quality products with controllable raw materials and production costs. The reason why we chose to strategically develop the pet care sector is not only that the track itself is large in scale, fast in growth, great in potential and low in brand concentration, but also because it can be connected with other sectors of the Group with established advantages. The successful experience of other sectors also enables Chaoyun Group to solve the needs of young people for new brands, new products and personalization.</p><p>Next, Chaoyun Group focused on the pet care sector. With the advantages that the Group has established in the pet care sector, 2021 will fully enter the pet track. Chaoyun Group will also rely on its leading market position and omni-channel distribution network to welcome the high growth opportunities of the pet industry and enjoy the benefits of the pet blue ocean market of 100 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time, Chaoyun Group also stated in the performance announcement that the company will continue to upgrade product technology, lay out overseas R&D centers, make use of the advantages of local research talents, research and transform consumer demand, and create customized products. The Group will continue to implement its environmental, social and governance and sustainable development strategy, continue to implement the strategy of reaching thousands of people, and expand product offerings to build a one-stop multi-category platform.</p><p>Going public is just a starting point. In the future, with the continuous deepening and rapid development in the fields of personal care and pet care, Chaoyun Group led by Chen Danxia will embark on a new journey.</p>","source":"tzj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPost-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-30 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chaoyun Group showed its \"muscles\" to the outside world.</p><p>On March 26th, Chaoyun Group released its 2020 annual results announcement. According to the announcement, Chaoyun Group achieved an operating income of 1.702 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3% and an adjusted high growth of 32.4%, with both revenue and net profit increasing. In addition, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend plan recommended by the board of directors, which is less than a month after its listing.</p><p>Chaoyun Group, which is positioned as a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, successfully landed in Hong Kong stocks on March 10th this year, with a market value of more than HK$ 11 billion. It owns many well-known brands such as Chaowei, Beibeijian, Weiwang, Runzhisu, Stubborn Tail, DUX Deshi and Xilan.</p><p>Behind Chaoyun Group is Chen Danxia, a post-80s helm. It is worth mentioning that this is the first annual performance report released by the new management team led by Chen Danxia one and a half years after they arrived. This performance completely exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the management level of the new team and the forward-looking positioning of the future business development direction.</p><p>The performance report shows that the revenue of pet care products of Chaoyun Group has increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, which has become a bright spot. Next, Chaoyun Group will fully enter pet care to meet the high growth opportunities in the pet industry. It must be known that this is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market.</p><p><b>Chaoyun Group 2020 Report Card:</b></p><p><b>Received 1.7 billion yuan a year and received another 24 million yuan of investment</b></p><p>Chaoyun Group, which has only been listed for 20 days, has already experienced ups and downs. Although the IPO broke on the first day, the investment sentiment is still strong and the market attention is extremely high. During the major adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, it is not easy for a new stock to get out of the reverse upward curve. This performance report has delivered another bright answer sheet.</p><p>On 26 March, Chaoyun Group Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Chaoyun Group\", 6601.HK) released its 2020 annual results. According to the announcement, the company achieved an operating income of RMB1.702 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46567580bfc84b25d3476727721fe902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As we all know, in 2020, due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various industries were affected to varying degrees, and against this backdrop, Chaoyun Group still showed strong profitability and its full-year results exceeded expectations. At the same time, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend payment plan proposed by the board of directors, and has proposed to pay dividends at a dividend payout ratio of 25% for 2020 profitability.</p><p>Not only that, with the steady growth of core financial indicators, Chaoyun Group's capital reserves are even more sufficient. According to the results announcement, the gross profit margin of Chaoyun Group in 2020 was RMB742.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; As at 31 December 2020, the Group's cash and cash equivalents and various deposits amounted to RMB885 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.13% as compared with the end of 2019.</p><p>In 2020, Chaoyun Group's product categories continued to improve and achieved full-category growth. Among them, the revenue of pet care products increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, and the revenue of home care products and personal care products increased by 20% and 51.7% respectively.</p><p>In addition, the comprehensive expansion of sales channels was also a highlight of Chaoyun Group's performance last year.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chaoyun Group's online and offline omni-channel coverage business has grown rapidly. Since 2018, its self-built e-commerce team has developed online business, and it has rapidly fissioned from a single store to 26 self-operated stores and more than 20 online channels, with a year-on-year growth of 92.8% in 2020. The revenue of self-operated online stores increased by 121.5%, which will be beneficial to the growth of gross profit; OFFLINE has more than 1,200 offline distributors, approximately 620,000 sales outlets, 48 major customers and 11,000 retail outlets covering all provinces and all prefecture-level cities in China, fully penetrating tier 1 to tier 5 cities, and its revenue increased by 14.4% year-on-year in 2020.</p><p>The strong coverage of offline channels and the clear profit model of online channels are the cornerstones of sustainable development of consumer goods enterprises under the Internet economy. Especially today, with the growth rate of third-tier cities in China exceeding that of first-and second-tier cities, rapid and effective penetration into low-tier cities through strong distribution capabilities is the key to offline sustainable development; The rapid development of online business, the expansion of emerging channel communities and the layout of home-to-home business are also a major increase in the future development of the company.</p><p>According to the equity data of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chaoyun Group was recently increased by 3.56 million shares by Morgan Stanley, involving an investment of about RMB 24.25 million. After the increase, the latest number of shares held is about 80,543,100 shares, and the latest shareholding ratio is 6.04%. This also just proves the unexpected performance of Chaoyun Group, which has once again been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>The second generation of the post-80s generation is at the helm,</b></p><p><b>Creating a tracked learning organization</b></p><p>The unexpected development of Chaoyun Group can't be separated from the helm behind it-Chen Danxia.</p><p>Chen Danxia started her business in 2004 while studying at the University of Sydney, Australia. In 2008, she parachuted to Gaozi as the general manager and became the chairman of Gaozi in 2014. Faced with many difficulties at that time, Chen Danxia made drastic reforms as soon as she took office, starting from four aspects: team building, channel expansion, organizational structure reconstruction and series of new product development. Soon, Gaozi achieved contrarian growth within two years, maintaining a growth rate of more than 50% for many consecutive years, becoming the first case of a domestic daily chemical giant acquiring a cosmetics company and successfully transforming.</p><p>After this battle, Chen Danxia gained more recognition as a second generation post-80s, and began to take charge of Chaowei Division, the predecessor of Chaoyun Group. In 2018, she reorganized the businesses of a number of companies in Chaowei Division to form Chaoyun Group. In 2019, Chen Danxia became the chairman and CEO of Chaoyun Group, set up a brand-new management team and e-commerce business team, reorganized the offline business team, and further quickly implemented the strategic layout of multi-brands and multi-categories.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a275f5c8a5f70ab8723996d4620cff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Compared with the top 500 consumer goods enterprises in the world, if a consumer goods enterprise wants to become bigger and stronger, it must have the ability to operate in multiple brands and categories, and build a crawler development team. In the past, the Chinese market lacked teams with multi-brand, multi-category operation and successful comprehensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, which is the advantage of Chaoyun Group's management team.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chen Danxia and her management team have rich industry experience across platforms, channels and fields, spanning cosmetics, daily chemicals, maternal and infant products, pets and e-commerce. He also has extensive experience and international perspective in rapid integration of domestic and overseas mergers and acquisitions. The team members have an average of more than 15 years of experience in the industry and have worked for companies under Chaoyun Group for an average of more than 10 years.</p><p>It is reported that Chen Danxia is low-key and good at learning. She is very good at strategy formulation and dismantling of online and offline businesses. She has her own unique experience and intuition for brand management and incubation, and spends a lot of energy with the team every day. Since taking office as CEO of Chaoyun, she has personally led the team, and through the general meeting of the center on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, she has ensured that the coordination direction of the seven centers of Chaoyun Group is consistent; Each center will also hold weekly meetings and monthly reviews to ensure that the secondary departments under each center have a consistent coordination direction, and form a top-down organization with unified thinking and consistent actions. During the epidemic, Chaoyun Group held more than 3,000 training sessions for more than 1,000 offline dealers in one month, helping more than 100,000 dealers cope with the new retail pattern in the new consumption era after the epidemic. In addition, she also set up Chaoyun College, requiring all centers to train and cultivate talents for echelons within their respective jurisdictions, so as to build an organizational structure of multi-brand and multi-category consumer goods group, a tracked talent incubation system and an empowering gene to attract external talents.</p><p>With excellent multi-brand and multi-category operation capabilities and strong organizational management capabilities, Chen Danxia led Chaoyun team to successfully incubate a number of industry leading brands and create a strategy of thousands of people. They have invested a lot of energy and money in research and development, and carried out multi-brand and tracked layout on products for each category of products to meet the different needs of consumers, which is rare in the industry.</p><p>In addition, qualification and compliance capabilities are also indispensable factors for the rapid development of Chaoyun Group. It is reported that Chaoyun Group has formulated strict standards for many processes such as market access, production, quality control and sewage discharge. Whether it is mosquito repellent, insect killing, disinfection and sterilization, pet care, personal care and other industries, there are very high access qualification requirements.</p><p>In the end, Chaoyun Group built a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, and was able to achieve outstanding results against the trend in 2020.</p><p><b>Enter pet care in an all-round way,</b></p><p><b>This is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market</b></p><p>How much imagination does Chaoyun Group have for future growth?</p><p>According to the CIC Report, China's pet care, home care and personal care markets are the three fastest growing segments, and the CAGR of retail sales of pet care, home care and personal care markets between 2019 and 2024 is expected to be 17.8%, 8.7% and 8.9%, respectively. It is estimated that in 2024, the home care market will reach 69.4 billion, the personal care market will reach 701.4 billion, and the pet market will also exceed 100 billion.</p><p>In addition, Guotai Junan Research also pointed out that with the increase and increase of single youth and social pressure, the number of pets keeping has gradually increased, mainly cats and dogs, reaching 100 million in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32d0a8cd2f6a976804c9b2fde0af8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It can be seen that the future development of Chaoyun Group's core categories has a huge incremental space, which has been reflected in the performance report.</p><p>According to the performance report, Chaoyun Group began to enter the pet care sector with fast growth and high gross profit in 2019. The newly created brand \"Stubborn Tail\" ranked first in Tmall's pet perfume deodorization category four months after its listing. In 2020, the total revenue of Chaoyun Group's pet care business increased by more than 10 times. From 2021 to 2022, Chaoyun Group will launch a total of 62 new products, including 31 pet care products, accounting for half of the proportion, which shows that Chaoyun Group attaches great importance to emerging categories.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that whenever Chaoyun Group chooses to enter a new category, it will first use the integration capability of the supply chain to build a competitive advantage and ensure that it provides high-quality products with controllable raw materials and production costs. The reason why we chose to strategically develop the pet care sector is not only that the track itself is large in scale, fast in growth, great in potential and low in brand concentration, but also because it can be connected with other sectors of the Group with established advantages. The successful experience of other sectors also enables Chaoyun Group to solve the needs of young people for new brands, new products and personalization.</p><p>Next, Chaoyun Group focused on the pet care sector. With the advantages that the Group has established in the pet care sector, 2021 will fully enter the pet track. Chaoyun Group will also rely on its leading market position and omni-channel distribution network to welcome the high growth opportunities of the pet industry and enjoy the benefits of the pet blue ocean market of 100 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time, Chaoyun Group also stated in the performance announcement that the company will continue to upgrade product technology, lay out overseas R&D centers, make use of the advantages of local research talents, research and transform consumer demand, and create customized products. The Group will continue to implement its environmental, social and governance and sustainable development strategy, continue to implement the strategy of reaching thousands of people, and expand product offerings to build a one-stop multi-category platform.</p><p>Going public is just a starting point. In the future, with the continuous deepening and rapid development in the fields of personal care and pet care, Chaoyun Group led by Chen Danxia will embark on a new journey.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i8UhPQ2K6tr4-WeczmCJUA\">投资界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a275f5c8a5f70ab8723996d4620cff","relate_stocks":{"06601":"朝云集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i8UhPQ2K6tr4-WeczmCJUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148049485","content_text":"朝云集团向外界秀了一下自己的“肌肉”。3月26日,朝云集团发布2020年年度业绩公告。公告显示,朝云集团2020年实现营业收入17.02亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长23%;年内溢利2.33亿元,同比增长26.3%,经调整达到32.4%高增长,营收与净利双双上升。此外,朝云集团还公布了董事会建议派息方案,这距离其上市仅不到一个月时间。定位为一站式多品类家居护理、宠物护理和个人护理平台的朝云集团,此前刚于今年3月10日成功登陆港股,市值超过110亿港元。其旗下拥有超威、贝贝健、威王、润之素、倔强的尾巴、DUX德是、西兰等多个知名品牌。在朝云集团的背后,是一位80后掌舵人——陈丹霞。值得一提的是,此次是由陈丹霞带领的新管理团队到岗一年半后,发布的第一份全年业绩报告。此次业绩完全超出市场预期,展现了新团队的管理水平及对未来业务发展方向的定位很有前瞻性。业绩报告显示,朝云集团宠物护理产品的收入较上一年度增长超十倍,成为一大亮点。接下来,朝云集团将会全面进军宠物护理,迎接宠物行业高增长机会。须知道,这是一个千亿级蓝海市场。朝云集团2020成绩单:一年进账17个亿,再获2400万元投资上市仅20天的朝云集团,已经经历风雨,IPO首日虽破发,但投资情绪依然浓烈,市场关注度极高。在港股大调整期间,一支新股能走出反向上攻曲线,实属不易。本次业绩报告又交出了一份亮眼的答卷。3月26日,朝云集团有限公司(以下简称“朝云集团”,6601.HK)发布2020年年度业绩。公告显示,公司2020年实现公司营业收入人民币 17.02亿元,同比增长23%;年内溢利2.33亿元,同比增长26.3%。众所周知,2020年因新冠疫情爆发,各行业均受到了不同程度的影响,在此背景下,朝云集团依然表现出强劲的盈利能力,全年业绩超出预期。与此同时,朝云集团还公布了董事会建议派息方案,已建议就2020年度盈利情况,按25%的派息率分红派息。不仅如此,伴随着核心财务指标稳步增长,朝云集团的资金储备更是充足。业绩公告显示,2020年朝云集团的毛利率额为人民币7.426亿元,同比增长23.8%;截止2020年12月31日,集团持有现金及现金等价物各种存款为人民币8.85亿元,较2019年年末同比增长73.13%。朝云集团的产品品类在2020年度进行了持续改进,得以实现全品类增长。其中,宠物护理产品的收入较上一年度增长超十倍,家居护理产品和个人护理产品的收入分别增长20%和51.7%。此外,销售渠道的全面拓展也是朝云集团去年业绩的一大亮点。业绩公告显示,朝云集团线上线下全渠道覆盖业务快速增长,自2018年自建电商团队发展线上业务,快速从单一店铺裂变至26个自营店铺、20多个线上渠道,2020年增长同比92.8%。自营线上商店的收入则大幅增长121.5%,这一增长将有利于毛利增长;线下拥有超过1200家线下经销商,约62万个销售网点,48名大客户以及覆盖国内所有省份、所有地级市的11,000个零售网点,全面渗透1至5线城市,2020年营收同比增长14.4%。线下渠道强势覆盖和线上渠道盈利模式清晰,这是一家互联网经济下消费品企业的可持续发展基石。尤其是在中国三线城市发展增速超于一二线城市的今天,通过强大的分销能力快速有效地渗透到低线城市是线下可持续发展的关键;快速发展线上业务、拓展新兴渠道社群、布局到家业务同样也是未来公司发展的一大增量。港交所权益资料显示,朝云集团日前获摩根士丹利增持356万股,涉资约合人民币2425万元。增持后最新持股数目约为8054.31万股,最新持股比例为6.04%。这也恰好证明了朝云集团超预期的业绩,再一次得到了资本市场的认可。80后创二代掌舵,打造履带式学习型组织朝云集团的超预期发展离不开背后的掌舵人——陈丹霞。陈丹霞于2004年澳洲悉尼大学就读期间开始创业,2008年空降到高姿担任总经理,并于2014年担任高姿董事长。面对彼时的重重困境,陈丹霞甫一上任便进行了大刀阔斧的改革,从团队建设、渠道拓展、组织架构重建、系列新品开发这四个方面入手。很快,高姿在两年之内就实现了逆势增长,连续多年保持50%以上的增速,成为首个国内日化巨头收购化妆品企业并转型成功的案例。经此一役,陈丹霞作为一名80后创二代得到了更多的认可,并开始负责朝云集团的前身—超威事业部。2018年,她将超威事业部的多家公司业务重组成立朝云集团,2019年陈丹霞成为朝云集团董事长兼CEO,组建了全新的管理团队和电商业务团队,重整了线下业务团队,进一步快速实施多品牌和多品类的战略布局。对比国际上的五百强消费品企业,一家消费品企业想要做大做强,必须具备多品牌多品类经营的能力,以及打造出一支履带式发展的团队。过往来看,中国市场非常缺乏消费品多品牌、多品类经营和兼并购重组成功综合经验的团队,而这则是朝云集团管理团队的优势所在。业绩公告显示,陈丹霞及其管理团队拥有跨平台跨渠道多领域的丰富行业经验,横跨化妆品、日化、母婴产品、宠物及电商等多个领域。在国内外兼并购并快速整合方面,亦具备丰富经验及国际视野。团队成员在行业内的经验平均超过15年,在朝云集团旗下公司工作平均超过10年。据悉,陈丹霞为人低调、善于学习,对于线上、线下业务的战略制定和拆解很有一套,对于品牌管理和孵化有自己独到的经验和直觉,日常花了大量精力和团队在一起。上任朝云CEO至今她亲自带队,通过周一三五中心总例会,确保朝云集团七大中心协同方向一致;各中心也会召开周例会及月复盘,确保各中心下属各二级部门协同方向一致,形成组织自上而下思想统一、行动一致。疫情期间,朝云集团针对线下的一千多个经销商,一个月时间召开了3000多场培训会,帮助十几万经销商队伍应对疫情后新消费时代的新零售格局。此外,她还设立了朝云学院,要求所有中心总必须对各自管辖范围内的梯队进行培训和人才培养,以打造多品牌多品类消费品集团的组织结构,履带式人才孵化体系和吸引外部人才的赋能型基因。正是凭借出色的多品牌多品类运营能力和强大的组织管理能力,陈丹霞带领朝云团队成功孵化了多个行业领导品牌,并打造千人千面的战略。他们在研发方面投入了大量的精力和资金,对每个品类的产品进行多品牌和产品上的履带式布局,以应对消费者不同的需求,这在业内来说都是少有的。除此之外,符合资质准入及合规能力也是朝云集团快速发展不可或缺的因素。据悉,朝云集团对市场准入、生产、质控、排污等诸多流程制定了严格的标准。无论是驱蚊杀虫、消毒除菌、宠物护理、个人护理等等行业,都有非常高的准入资质要求。最终,朝云集团构建了一站式多品类家居护理、宠物护理和个人护理平台,并得以在2020年逆势取得亮眼的业绩。全面进军宠物护理,这是一个千亿级蓝海市场朝云集团未来增长的想象空间有多大?灼识咨询报告显示,中国的宠物护理、家居护理及个人护理市场是增长最快的三个细分板块,2019年至2024年间宠物护理、家居护理及个人护理市场零售额的复合年增长率预计将分别为17.8%、8.7%及8.9%。预计2024年家居护理市场体量将达到694亿,个人护理市场体量将达7014亿,宠物市场体量也将突破1000亿规模。除此之外,国泰君安研究也指出,随着单身青年和社会压力的提升和加大,饲养宠物的人群逐渐提升,宠物主要是猫和狗,2020年达到1亿只。由此可见,朝云集团的核心品类未来发展增量空间十分庞大,这在业绩报告中已经有所体现。业绩报告显示,朝云集团在2019年就开始进入增速快、毛利高的宠物护理板块,新创立的品牌“倔强的尾巴”上市4个月即获得天猫宠物香水除味类目排名第一。2020年朝云集团宠物护理业务总营收实现超10倍增长,2021年~2022年朝云集团将新推出合计62个新产品,其中宠物护理产品有31个,占一半比重,足见朝云集团对新兴品类的重视。值得一提的是,每当朝云集团选择进入一个新品类时,首先会利用供应链的整合能力打造竞争优势,确保在原料和生产成本可控的情况下提供优质的产品。而之所以选择战略发展宠物护理板块,除了赛道本身规模大、增速快、潜力大、品牌集中度低等原因,还因为能够和集团其他已建立优势的板块相互打通连接。有其他板块成功的经验,也使得朝云集团能够针对性地去解决现在年轻人对新品牌、新产品、个性化的需求。接下来,朝云集团将目光重点瞄向了宠物护理板块。随着集团已经在宠物护理板块建立的优势,2021将会全面进入宠物大赛道。而朝云集团也将凭借领先的市场地位加上全渠道分销网络,迎接宠物行业高增长机会,享受宠物蓝海千亿级市场的福利。与此同时,朝云集团在业绩公告中也表示,公司将继续坚持产品技术升级,布局海外研发中心,利用当地研究人才的优势,研究并转换消费者需求,打造定制产品。集团仍要实行环境、社会及管治及可持续发展战略,继续实施千人千面的战略,并扩展产品供应以构建一个一站式多品类平台。上市只是一个起点。未来,随着在个人护理及宠物护理领域的持续深化和快速发展,陈丹霞带领的朝云集团又将踏上一段新征程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06601":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356716175,"gmtCreate":1616814759297,"gmtModify":1704799349087,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571822975434375","authorIdStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356716175","repostId":"1136026980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136026980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616807914,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136026980?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-27 09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The market value exceeds Gree's 200 billion, and Gao Ling plus Dong Mingzhu can't do a beautiful thing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136026980","media":"36氪","summary":"从家电巨头到科技集团,5700亿美的的蜕变之路。\n\n1980年,美的带着第一台“明珠牌”电风扇进军家电行业。\n经过40年的深耕,熬过了春兰、海尔、格力后,美的成为了家电行业的绝对龙头。\n2020年,在","content":"<p>From a home appliance giant to a technology group, the transformation of 570 billion US dollars. In 1980, Midea entered the home appliance industry with the first \"Pearl Brand\" electric fan.</p><p>After 40 years of deep cultivation and surviving Chunlan, Haier and Gree, Midea has become the absolute leader in the home appliance industry.</p><p>In 2020, under the combined effects of favorable performance, company repurchase and foreign investment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">Midea Group</a>The share price rose from 58 yuan at the beginning of the year to 98 yuan at the end of the year, with a cumulative increase of 76%; The catalysis of the soaring stock price has boosted Midea's market value to usher in a leap. From 400 billion to 690 billion, Midea's market value is even one more than the combined market value of Gree + Haier<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603486\">Ecovacs</a>。</p><p>In the domestic home appliance market, Gree is the first thing that comes to mind when air conditioners are mentioned; Haier's reputation for refrigerators and washing machines seems to be greater; Even in the field of small home appliances with slightly lower technical content, Joyoung,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002032\">Supor</a>And the beautiful is also hard to distinguish.</p><p>However, it is such a company that can't take the top spot in the segmented track, but it has become the absolute leader of the domestic home appliance industry.</p><p>In recent years, with the global home appliance industry shifting to China, it has brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to major home appliance leaders. After Midea won Toshiba's home appliance business, in 2019, Hillhouse Capital took a stake<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>, recently acquired for 34 billion yuan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0LNG.UK\">Philips</a>In the home appliance business, in the future, Hillhouse has a great probability of making up for Gree's shortcomings in the field of small home appliances through coordination between sectors.</p><p>With the increasingly fierce competitive environment of domestic home appliance industry, how should Midea Group break through in the future? Being able to sit firmly in the top spot in the home appliance industry, what kind of charm does Midea have?</p><p><b>This article attempts to answer the following four questions:</b></p><p><ul><li><b>How does Midea become a giant in the home appliance industry?</b></li><li><b>What are the advantages of Midea?</b></li><li><b>What is the future layout of Midea?</b></li><li><b>Does huge goodwill form a drag?</b></li></ul><b>America's Expansion Road: A Textbook History of Mergers and Acquisitions</b></p><p>When it comes to the domestic home appliance industry, Gree and Midea are two inevitable names.</p><p>For more than 40 years, the two enterprises have chased each other and loved each other in the field of white goods, and finally formed a duopoly pattern in the field of air conditioning. Compared with Miss Dong's high-profile, low-key beauty has a different strategic layout since its founding.</p><p>If Gree pursues a development path led by independent management, vertical and regional; Then Midea implements a typical strategic investment-oriented, horizontal and international strategic layout. That is, the parent company obtains the control of its subsidiaries through strategic investment, operates and makes breakthroughs in various sub-tracks of the global home appliance industry through its subsidiaries, and finally realizes the overall diversification and international expansion of the group.</p><p>This strategic difference can be seen by combing the financial reports of the parent companies of the two companies in the past five years.</p><p>In terms of investment assets in the parent company's statement, Midea Group has obvious advantages in both absolute amount and relative proportion. Through rough calculation, in 2019, Midea's total investment assets were about 71 billion yuan, compared with Gree's only 39.7 billion yuan in the same period; Moreover, in the past five years, the proportion of Midea's investment assets in total assets has always remained at about 40%. Although Gree has improved in recent years, it is still less than 20%.</p><p>In terms of operating assets, the operating assets generated by Gree Electric's parent company are several times that of Midea's parent company. Although the proportion of Gree's operating assets has been declining in the past five years, it was still as high as 60% in 2019, which is obviously superior to Midea's level of about 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e078eb9e78e93f06a79b833abc8fcf\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 1: Comparison of assets of parent companies of Gree and Midea Data source: company financial report, wind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a></p><p><b>What are the specific aspects of Midea's diversified and international layout led by controlled investment?</b></p><p>In 1980, Midea entered the home appliance industry with its electric fan business, and began to enter air conditioning in 1985. In order to achieve breakthroughs in technology and production capacity, as early as 1992, Midea and Xida jointly invested in the establishment of Welling Motor and began to get involved in motor manufacturing; In 1993, Midea achieved a breakthrough in air conditioning manufacturing by signing a technical cooperation contract with Toshiba, and at the same time planted the seeds for Midea's merger and acquisition road.</p><p>In 1998, Midea invested 81 million yuan to acquire 60% equity of Guangdong Toshiba Macro Refrigeration and Motor Company, and became the Chinese controlling shareholder of the joint venture company (later renamed Meizhi).</p><p>This war is of great significance to the United States. Through this acquisition, Midea independently mastered two key technologies of compressor and motor, built a complete industrial chain in the field of air conditioning, and became one of the few enterprises in China with both air conditioning production capacity and production of core components of compressor and motor.</p><p>As of 2019, Meizhi, Lingda and Highly consolidated their monopoly in compressors, with CR3 accounting for more than 70%. Among them, Meizhi's market share is as high as 34.8%, which not only realizes the self-supply of Midea, but also is the core supplier of OEMs such as Oaks.</p><p>As we all know, compressors and motors, as the core components of air conditioners, account for about 40% of the manufacturing cost of air conditioners, and are also the keys to efficient frequency conversion of air conditioners. Midea's control of upstream core components has brought considerable cost and technical advantages to it, and enhanced its comprehensive competitiveness of air conditioners.</p><p>Take Oaks as an example. 85% of its compressors are purchased from Meizhi and Highly, and 40% of its motors are purchased from Welling Motor. At present, the average cost of self-equipped compressor and motor in air conditioning production is about 100 yuan and 20 yuan lower than that of external mining. Under the cost advantage, the profit of Midea's single air conditioner in 2019 was about 219 yuan higher than that of Oaks.</p><p>Time goes back to 2004, and this year is of great significance to beauty. Midea began to accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions in the field of white goods, and realized the layout of the whole industrial chain of white goods.</p><p>In May, Midea took over 42.4% equity of Hualing's major shareholder for 235 million yuan (in 2007, Midea Electric realized full control of Guangdong Valin, Hefei Hualing and China Refrigerator), and officially entered the refrigerator industry; In November, it acquired 50.5% equity of Royalstar for US$20 million (it achieved full control in 2008 and the right to use the brand ended in 2013), and entered the field of washing machines. So far, Midea has basically formed the whole industrial chain layout of air conditioners, motors, compressors, refrigerators, washing machines and small household appliances.</p><p>In 2008, Midea invested 1.68 billion in cash to acquire 24.01% equity of Little Swan, a well-known brand of washing machines. Together with 5.63% of Little Swan's B shares purchased by overseas subsidiaries in the secondary market, Midea holds nearly 30% equity of Little Swan, becoming the largest shareholder of Little Swan.</p><p>In the following years, Midea achieved full control of Little Swan in 2019 through various capital operation methods such as increasing holdings in the secondary market, tender offer, share swap and merger.</p><p>Before the acquisition of Little Swan to integrate the washing machine business, Midea had a huge gap with Haier in the field of washing machines. In 2007, Haier's market share was 21.4%, while Midea's market share was less than 6% after establishing itself in washing machines with the help of Royalstar; After acquisition and integration, Midea's washing machine business has grown rapidly. According to the sales data of Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, by 2019, the pattern of duopoly in the domestic washing machine field will be further stabilized, and the market shares of Haier and Midea are very close, both around 32%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bcfd117da75db22068245e80901e8af\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 2: Comparison of market share of washing machines between Midea and Haier Source: Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, 36 Krypton</p><p><b>In the field of small home appliances, the expansion of Midea is similar.</b></p><p>After producing fans in 1980, in 1990s, through technical cooperation and equipment introduction with Japanese giants such as Sanyo and Toshiba, he mastered the technology of small household appliances such as rice cookers and microwave ovens.</p><p>After 2000, it expanded into the fields of induction cooker, soybean milk machine, water dispenser, pressure cooker, range hood and other fields through self-built subsidiaries.</p><p>From 2000 to 2010, Midea realized the continuous expansion in the fields of dishwashers, vacuum cleaners, air purifiers and lighting through joint ventures with Meloni, Italy, and the acquisition of Chunhua and Guiya Lighting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f75978648d2144e9516bfc42a246aa\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 3: Midea's expansion road in small home appliances Data source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>After forming the whole industrial chain layout in the field of home appliances, Midea has established an internationalization strategy.</b></p><p>In fact, Midea's internationalization road has an early origin, which originated from the OEM foundry mode in the late 1980s. With two production bases in Vietnam and Shunde, Midea secured OEM orders from 18 retail groups and 10 well-known brands around the world at this stage.</p><p>After opening up the international market by OEM mode, in 2010, Midea accelerated the independent construction of overseas brands by relying on two strategies of equity holding and self-built overseas production bases.</p><p>In 2010, Midea acquired 32.5% equity of Miraco, an Egyptian air-conditioning company, obtained the company's brand, market and channel advantages, and successfully entered the African market; In 2011, it acquired 51% equity of Carrier Latin American Air Conditioning Company as a platform for Midea to carry out air conditioning business in Latin America; In 2016, it acquired 80% equity of Clivet, an Italian central air conditioner, to realize complementary resources and expand the European market; In the same year, Midea completed the acquisition of 80.1% equity of Toshiba's home appliance business in Japan, obtained the global authorization of Toshiba brand for 40 years and more than 5,000 patented technologies, and successfully opened the ASEAN market; In 2017, it acquired Eureka, Electrolux's North American vacuum cleaner business, further integrating the global layout of small home appliances.</p><p>While buying and buying, Midea also started to build its own branches, R&D centers and production bases overseas, promoting the transformation of its own organizational form from \"Chinese export\" to \"local operation\". The expansion of product categories, the implementation of manufacturing localization and supply chain localization, and the continuous improvement of product quality in overseas factories have gained high recognition for Midea's overseas expansion.</p><p>After 53 years of efforts, the current Midea has become an excellent large-scale multinational group. As of 2019, its business covers consumer electrical appliances, HVAC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>And automation system and digitalization business, providing diversified product categories and services including HVAC, washing machines, refrigerators, kitchen appliances and various small household appliances.</p><p>Meanwhile, Midea's business covers more than 200 countries and regions, with 34 major production bases (including 17 overseas production bases) and 28 R&D centers (including 18 overseas R&D centers), and about 30,000 overseas employees.</p><p>In 2019, Midea Group achieved a total revenue of 279.4 billion yuan, with a stable gross profit margin of around 30% and a net profit margin close to 10%. Among them, the contribution rate of overseas market revenue was 42%, and the expansion momentum was rapid.</p><p><b>Midea's controlled investment strategy is of great significance for it to master technology, quickly enter market segments and increase market share. At the same time, it also brings a powerful scale effect to Midea.</b></p><p>According to the comparison between the parent company and the consolidated statement of Midea in the past five years, the controlled investment strategy has brought considerable expansion effect to Midea. In the past five years, its efficiency of leveraging total resources through controlled investment has always exceeded twice.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ed96eba0463002ff62ecb82c4f235\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 4: Midea Group's expansion effect Source: wind, 36 Krypton</p><p>The continuous expansion of scale advantage has given Midea a strong voice in upstream raw materials and downstream channels. The strong upstream fund-holding ability and downstream payment collection ability optimized the capital structure and assets and liabilities of the enterprise, and ensured that Midea could achieve the steady growth of its own funds under low financial risks; Strong upstream and downstream bargaining power forms advantages in product pricing and raw material cost, ensures the stable expansion of gross profit, and realizes the Matthew effect in the fierce competition in the home appliance market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b2a36a1b2022fa92c0deeb26e19692\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 5: Midea's upstream and downstream voice Source: wind, 36 Krypton</p><p><b>Midea's Moat: R&D and Efficiency</b></p><p>After decades of rapid development, with the cooling of the real estate market, China's home appliance industry has entered the era of stock. In 2019, the total export + domestic sales volume of the home appliance industry was 1,106.6 billion yuan, down 1.35% year-on-year.</p><p>From incremental market to stock market, the survival logic of home appliance enterprises has also changed from absorbing incremental share to eroding the market share of rivals, and price war has become the theme of 2019.</p><p>Take air conditioners as an example. In February 2019, Midea took the lead in reducing prices by 10%, provoking a new round of price war. On the one hand, the price reduction promotion is to suppress the expansion of second-and third-tier enterprises led by Oaks; On the other hand, it is to use the advantage of low inventory to contain Gree's shipment and grab the first-mover advantage.</p><p>In June, Gree joined the war situation, turned defensive into offensive after Double Eleven, and launched the historical \"3 billion big profit\" and \"10 billion big profit\" activities, with the average price dropping by over 30%.</p><p>Under the influence of the leading competition strategy and the epidemic situation, the price war in 2019 lasted for nearly 20 months. In the most intense period, the average price of the industry dropped by as much as 20-30%. The average price of the industry for the whole year was lower than that of the price war in 2015, which was the lowest in the past decade.</p><p><b>The final result ended in a big win for Midea.</b>Midea not only achieved its share surpassing Gree by virtue of its first-mover advantage; At the same time, when the selling price is 15% lower than that of Gree, the net profit level is flat or even slightly exceeds that of Gree. At the same price as Haier and Oaks, the net profits of both companies have suffered losses, and Midea has achieved a lead of 8-10 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74a4b9f4dbb614dd23d4ab09aec19f0\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 6: Comparison of net profit margin of air conditioning manufacturers during price war in 2019 Data source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>To win in this cruel price war, apart from Midea's diversified product structure, which can naturally resist risks, what else does Midea's moat have?</b></p><p><b>Excellent product strength is the first moat of Midea.</b></p><p>After 2013, with the favorable withdrawal of home appliances going to the countryside, trade-in and energy-saving subsidy policies, the home appliance industry fell into demand overdraft. At this time, Midea began to transform from scale-oriented to profit-oriented.</p><p>In terms of product categories, Midea makes a big subtraction. From the initial 64 categories to 32, if the sub-categories fail to be one of the best in the industry, they will face the risk of being cut; In product layout, Midea accelerated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>With the creation of home system, Midea's LOT platform has created more than 200 boutique intelligent scenes through AI technology, security technology and big data, providing consumers with personalized and customized package purchase choices.</p><p>This adjustment makes Midea reduce a large number of low-end and low-profit products, and transform to high-quality and intelligent products. By focusing on core categories and improving product quality and intelligent experience, the Company straightened out the lines of sub-brands and enhanced the comprehensive competitiveness of brands.</p><p>Take air conditioning as an example. At present, Midea has not only formed a vertical layout from compressor, motor to whole machine manufacturing; At the same time, it also covers the high, medium and low-grade brand matrix of all categories.</p><p>COLMO, which focuses on the high-end market, is equipped with the self-developed third-generation AI smart eye, and its intelligent technology and experience far exceed that of Gree and Haier, moving closer to Mitsubishi and Daikin; Midea's main brand, which focuses on the mid-to-high-end market, benchmarks most models of Gree, and shares Gree's share at a lower price with similar performance; In 2019, Hualing, a redefined sub-brand, was transformed into a brand that relies on the Internet, focuses on cost performance and personalized customization for young users, and benchmarks against second-and third-tier online celebrity brands such as Xiaomi and Oaks. With its performance, technology and cost advantages, it strengthened its market share in the low-end market.</p><p><b>Behind the excellent product strength is the result of years of continuous R&D investment.</b></p><p>At present, Midea implements a \"two-level and four-level\" R&D framework. The so-called two-tier and four-tier refers to the implementation of a two-tier R&D system with Academia Sinica as the core and R&D platforms of each business unit as the supplement in organizational structure; In terms of R&D content, we implement a four-level R&D system from advanced research, common technology, individual technology to product development.</p><p>Among them, Academia Sinica is responsible for carrying out disruptive research, cutting-edge technology research, and common technologies; The platform of the business unit is responsible for personalized technology research and product development. The coordinated development of the two-tier technology research lays the foundation for Midea to build the world's top R&D capabilities, provide medium-and long-term technical reserves, and achieve leading product capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0562c8f1e153534130c3723343736a6\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 7: Midea's R&D system Data source: Internet, 36 Krypton</p><p>In terms of R&D investment, Midea's R&D expenses are greater than those of the other two white goods enterprises all the year round. In the past five years, Midea has invested nearly 40 billion yuan in R&D, and the annual expense rate has remained stable above 3%. In 2019, it exceeded 10 billion yuan.</p><p>The huge R&D investment has ensured Midea's accumulation of authorized invention patents. In the first half of 2020, Midea applied for 6,162 patents worldwide and obtained 1,649 invention patents, ranking first in the home appliance industry, escorting the company's multi-business and multi-brand development.</p><p>As of 2019, Midea has a total of 13,727 R&D personnel at home and abroad, with a total of more than 3,500 masters and doctorates, of which the proportion of masters and doctorates from Academia Sinica exceeds 75%. Although 10.18% of the total R&D personnel accounts for less than that of the other two giants, Midea's R&D efficiency is higher if measured by the number of authorized patents per capita.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23f06266dfc227fc4f8dcc200a88ca2\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 8: Proportion of R&D personnel in three enterprises Source: Cinda Securities, 36 Krypton</p><p>The efficiency of R&D personnel is inseparable from Midea's complete incentive mechanism for front-line researchers. Since 2014, Midea has launched equity incentive, restricted stock incentive, business partner and global partner plans, covering key business personnel in different batches, especially in terms of the inclination of R&D personnel. The average proportion of R&D personnel in the seven equity incentive plans is close to 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47fd955463498a3ad2f38c74b3dc8f2\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 9: Percentage of Midea's talent incentive policies Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>Cost reduction and efficiency increase brought about by positive change is the second moat of Midea.</b></p><p><b>On the production side, in 2014, Midea took the lead in proposing the \"T +3\" change in Little Swan. In 2017, it began to popularize it to all categories, opening up a flexible production mode of sales-based production.</b></p><p>The connotation of \"T +3\" is to reduce the time of each of the four cycles (T) of receiving user orders, stocking raw materials, factory production and delivery sales from 7 days to 3 days, so as to improve the overall supply efficiency.</p><p>Under T +3 mode, enterprises can react quickly to raw material price changes, reducing the impact of raw material price fluctuations and high inventory on costs.</p><p>Take the price war in 2019 as an example. When the raw material price entered a downward cycle at the end of 2018, Midea made a reasonable production schedule by virtue of T +3 mode, which avoided the impact of raw material price changes on costs in high inventory mode, and prompted Midea to take the lead in reducing prices and seizing market share with low cost advantage.</p><p><b>On the channel side, Midea's forward-looking online layout and later \"network batch mode\" have greatly improved its control over downstream channels.</b></p><p>In 2008, Midea began to try online channel layout. In 2014, it set up an e-commerce company to vigorously promote online direct sales. The forward-looking online layout has enabled it to grasp the terminal retail trend earlier, and has become an important position to catch up with Gree and Haier in the segment.</p><p>As of 2019, Midea's online channels accounted for over 30%, ranking first in the whole network, and the online revenue growth rate reached 40%, significantly higher than that of offline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bf9132639c9929e7ac58170ed9f85f\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 10: Midea's online and offline market ranking of various categories of products Source: Financial Report, 36Kr</p><p>The mature promotion of online layout makes it possible for Midea to promote the \"network batch mode\" on the channel side.</p><p>Compared with the multi-level channel system of Gree sales department, agents and distributors, the online batch mode weakens the role of sales department. Downstream distributors can skip the sales department level and directly place orders with manufacturers through Meiyun Sales APP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7739915460fc3d4781465ba99b4b19\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 11: Comparison of two channels Data source: Zhongtai Securities, 36 Krypton</p><p>Because the sales division has a higher markup across the entire channel (retaining a net profit margin of 5%-8%), the reliance on the sales division is reduced, which brings cost intensification and compression of the markup rate to Midea.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06178\">Everbright Securities</a>According to the calculation, after the promotion of the network batch model, in 2019, the terminal price difference of Midea compared with Gree's single air conditioner expanded from 500 yuan to 700 yuan, of which the gross profit of the sales company is the key to Midea's price advantage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62eb295b15ab1a61aaa9b4a1200a3c95\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 12: Gree Hemei's pricing comparison data source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">Everbright Securities</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>On the logistics side, under the digital transformation, the establishment of Ande Zhilian's \"National One Plate\" logistics system has achieved cost reduction and efficiency improvement in Midea's transportation process.</b></p><p>In 2015, Ande Zhilian began to undertake Midea Group's T +3 one-plate strategy. In 2017, the reform of the logistics system was further promoted, and the warehouses previously scattered by agents all over the country were concentrated in the warehouse of Ande Logistics Center, and Ande Logistics conducted unified warehouse distribution, thus building a supply chain logistics system of \"shared warehousing, unified dispatching, quick response and quick distribution\".</p><p>The core of unified warehouse distribution is that the company realizes the integrated management and control of multi-channel inventory data through the application of digital information system, completely connects the information flow, capital flow and physical logistics, improves the turnover efficiency of all channels, and reduces logistics and warehousing costs.</p><p>As of the first half of 2020, Ande Zhilian had 140 regional distribution centers across the country, covering 2,875 districts and counties and 39,862 towns and villages across the country, with a 24-hour distribution coverage of 51% and a 48-hour coverage of 87%.</p><p><b>Midea's Star Sea: Becoming a Multinational Science and Technology Group</b></p><p><b>Becoming a global technology group with full digital intelligence is the sea of stars in the future of Midea.</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, Midea will upgrade the three strategies of \"product leadership, efficiency driven and global operation\" for 10 years to the four strategic axes of \"technology leadership, user direct access, digital intelligence driven and global breakthrough\", which marks the further clarification of Midea's strategic path from product leadership to technology leadership.</p><p><b>Midea's road of technological transformation originated from the \"632\" strategy in 2013.</b></p><p>\"632\" means building \"six operation platforms\", \"three management platforms\" and \"two portals and integrated technology platforms\". Its connotation is to build an information platform for the whole industrial chain of enterprises. Through the cooperation and upgrading of hardware and business side, the Company will realize the optimization of business processes and the standardization of the company's data system, and provide the data and underlying operation foundation for the subsequent industrial digitalization and intelligent transformation.</p><p><b>With the advancement of the \"632\" strategy, Midea's digital intelligence process has accelerated.</b></p><p>In 2015, Midea and Yaskawa Electric jointly established two companies, Yaskawa Midea Industrial Robot and Service Robot (they stopped cooperating in 2020), marking Midea's entry into the field of robotics.</p><p>Invested in domestic robotics companies in 2016<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688165\">Eft.</a>After that, in 2017, Midea completed the acquisition of KUKA, another star enterprise of the four robot families, at 29.2 billion yuan and 48 times the price-to-earnings ratio, providing a foundation for independently mastering intelligent manufacturing.</p><p><b>In the early stage of technological transformation, Midea's main goal was to use digital intelligence for internal business empowerment and efficiency improvement and smart life experience for C-end, that is, to realize the Group's \"double intelligence\" strategy (smart home + intelligent manufacturing).</b></p><p>Through data and technology empowerment, Midea finally implemented multi-scenario applications such as smart factory, C2M, digital marketing, intelligent customer service and intelligent logistics in intelligent manufacturing, helping the company to improve the efficiency of the whole value chain from procurement to production to sales and transportation.</p><p>From the perspective of financial data, during 2013-2017, while optimizing the number of employees, Midea's per capita income and profit generation maintained positive growth, especially reflecting that the per capita income generation at the output side increased more obviously than that of competitors; At the same time, if the year-on-year growth rate of per capita output is used to measure the degree of production automation, Midea's performance is also better than its rivals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f30b40770a5aa778d5217d5b037ee59\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 13: Midea's automated measurement data Source: Cinda Securities, 36 Krypton</p><p>In terms of smart home, Midea not only applies advanced technology to the intelligence of its own products, but also launches smart home appliances such as COLMO, its main sub-brand of AI intelligence. In order to solve the problem of device compatibility, it also sets the strategic goal of ecological cooperation, builds Midea Mercure, a fully open platform, and optimizes the smart life experience of C-end users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6942fd164a0b07ea2eee0b69eafed5f\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 14: Midea Mercure Ecological Data Source: Midea official website, 36 Krypton</p><p><b>In 2018, M.loT, Midea's industrial Internet platform, was released, marking the arrival of a new stage of Midea's technological transformation. The focus of transformation has shifted from facing the C-end and internal empowerment to opening up the B-end and external export.</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Meiqing, version 2.0 of Midea's industrial Internet, was released. Compared with the full-process digital solution of \"Consulting + Product + Implementation\" in version 1.0, Meiqing has deepened the integration of digitalization and robot automation, and provided a complete set of solutions from products to services to customers in various industries with core components, robot body, robot unit and fully automated system.</p><p>The launch of Meiqing is the expansion of Midea's own capability boundary, the entrance to the platformization of industrial resources, and provides support for the accelerated interpretation of Midea's B-end intelligent manufacturing solution solver role.</p><p>Compared with 2C business, 2B business has higher barriers to competition. At present, China is still in its infancy in this field, and there is a broad room for growth under the catalysis of 5G technology in the future. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>It is estimated that the market space of industrial Internet in 2021 will be about 780 billion yuan, with an annualized growth rate of 13%.</p><p>In 2B business, Midea's ambition goes far beyond industrial manufacturing. At the end of 2020, Midea acquired Lingwang Elevator, integrating its advantages in the field of central air conditioning, and further deepening its layout in the field of smart buildings and smart parks; In early 2021, Midea acquired for 2.3 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600055\">Wandong Medical</a>Using its layout in the field of medical devices combined with its own advantages in robot automation, it will expand into smart medical care.</p><p>Compared with other platforms, Midea's current advantage lies in the continuous broadening of capability boundaries and the deep integration of digitalization and robot automation. Moreover, Meiqing has produced very considerable results within Midea, which is more convincing to customers in various industries.</p><p>By the end of 2020, the customers served by Meiqing have covered more than 40 industries and more than 200 companies, and the forms of products and services have been further enriched. The service objects have been expanded to automobiles, daily chemicals, home textiles, real estate and other fields, gradually reflecting the embryonic form of ecology.</p><p><b>Huge Goodwill: Opportunity or Hidden Mines</b></p><p>At present, the biggest worry of the market for Midea lies in the risk of performance decline implied behind its huge goodwill.</p><p>At the end of 2019, the total goodwill in Midea's financial report totaled 28.2 billion, of which nearly 80% was generated from the high-priced acquisition of KUKA in Germany.</p><p>Since the completion of the acquisition in 2017, under the influence of the decline in global automobile demand and the outbreak of the epidemic, KUKA's performance has declined all the way, and its share price has also dropped from the peak of 246 euros to about 37 euros, and its market value has shrunk by more than 80%.</p><p>The change of KUKA's performance combined with the additional conditions that Midea should not interfere with KUKA's operation increased the probability of Midea accruing goodwill impairment and caused the market to worry about its performance decline.</p><p>But as mentioned earlier, Midea's acquisition of KUKA is the result of long-term strategic planning. With the addition of KUKA, Midea has mastered the ability of robot automation, and formed a leading digital and intelligent synergy in the industrial Internet platform, which is difficult to be reflected financially in the short term.</p><p>At the same time, Midea is also accelerating the vertical integration of industrial robot business to make up for the cost shortcomings of KUKA's upstream core components.</p><p>In 2017, Midea first acquired Israeli Gaochuang Transmission, a manufacturer of motion control drives and motors. In early 2020, Midea indirectly controlled<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300048\">Hekang Xinneng</a>In addition to strengthening its core competitiveness in 2B central air-conditioning business, the company's core businesses, industrial frequency converters and servo systems, are also important components of the upstream of industrial robots.</p><p>From the revenue and business structure of the four robot families, KUKA's advantage lies in the control end of the robot body, and the self-production rate of upstream core components is low, resulting in a lower gross profit margin than that of the other three. In the future, Midea's vertical integration in robot business is expected to reduce the upstream cost of KUKA and improve the overall profitability.</p><p>From another perspective, the average revenue of Midea Group in the past three years is 259.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of about 7.5%; The average net profit was 21.8 billion, with a growth rate of 16.5%; The average net cash flow from operating activities was RMB30.3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8ce2cd001dc4b34b04ab166c5a9884\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 15: Midea's revenue and net profit data in recent years Source: wind, 36 Krypton</p><p>According to the company's existing performance scale and growth trend, even if the 22.2 billion goodwill formed by KUKA is impaired at one time, it is difficult to cause a fatal blow to Midea's long-term operation.</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market value exceeds Gree's 200 billion, and Gao Ling plus Dong Mingzhu can't do a beautiful thing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market value exceeds Gree's 200 billion, and Gao Ling plus Dong Mingzhu can't do a beautiful thing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-27 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From a home appliance giant to a technology group, the transformation of 570 billion US dollars. In 1980, Midea entered the home appliance industry with the first \"Pearl Brand\" electric fan.</p><p>After 40 years of deep cultivation and surviving Chunlan, Haier and Gree, Midea has become the absolute leader in the home appliance industry.</p><p>In 2020, under the combined effects of favorable performance, company repurchase and foreign investment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">Midea Group</a>The share price rose from 58 yuan at the beginning of the year to 98 yuan at the end of the year, with a cumulative increase of 76%; The catalysis of the soaring stock price has boosted Midea's market value to usher in a leap. From 400 billion to 690 billion, Midea's market value is even one more than the combined market value of Gree + Haier<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603486\">Ecovacs</a>。</p><p>In the domestic home appliance market, Gree is the first thing that comes to mind when air conditioners are mentioned; Haier's reputation for refrigerators and washing machines seems to be greater; Even in the field of small home appliances with slightly lower technical content, Joyoung,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002032\">Supor</a>And the beautiful is also hard to distinguish.</p><p>However, it is such a company that can't take the top spot in the segmented track, but it has become the absolute leader of the domestic home appliance industry.</p><p>In recent years, with the global home appliance industry shifting to China, it has brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to major home appliance leaders. After Midea won Toshiba's home appliance business, in 2019, Hillhouse Capital took a stake<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>, recently acquired for 34 billion yuan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0LNG.UK\">Philips</a>In the home appliance business, in the future, Hillhouse has a great probability of making up for Gree's shortcomings in the field of small home appliances through coordination between sectors.</p><p>With the increasingly fierce competitive environment of domestic home appliance industry, how should Midea Group break through in the future? Being able to sit firmly in the top spot in the home appliance industry, what kind of charm does Midea have?</p><p><b>This article attempts to answer the following four questions:</b></p><p><ul><li><b>How does Midea become a giant in the home appliance industry?</b></li><li><b>What are the advantages of Midea?</b></li><li><b>What is the future layout of Midea?</b></li><li><b>Does huge goodwill form a drag?</b></li></ul><b>America's Expansion Road: A Textbook History of Mergers and Acquisitions</b></p><p>When it comes to the domestic home appliance industry, Gree and Midea are two inevitable names.</p><p>For more than 40 years, the two enterprises have chased each other and loved each other in the field of white goods, and finally formed a duopoly pattern in the field of air conditioning. Compared with Miss Dong's high-profile, low-key beauty has a different strategic layout since its founding.</p><p>If Gree pursues a development path led by independent management, vertical and regional; Then Midea implements a typical strategic investment-oriented, horizontal and international strategic layout. That is, the parent company obtains the control of its subsidiaries through strategic investment, operates and makes breakthroughs in various sub-tracks of the global home appliance industry through its subsidiaries, and finally realizes the overall diversification and international expansion of the group.</p><p>This strategic difference can be seen by combing the financial reports of the parent companies of the two companies in the past five years.</p><p>In terms of investment assets in the parent company's statement, Midea Group has obvious advantages in both absolute amount and relative proportion. Through rough calculation, in 2019, Midea's total investment assets were about 71 billion yuan, compared with Gree's only 39.7 billion yuan in the same period; Moreover, in the past five years, the proportion of Midea's investment assets in total assets has always remained at about 40%. Although Gree has improved in recent years, it is still less than 20%.</p><p>In terms of operating assets, the operating assets generated by Gree Electric's parent company are several times that of Midea's parent company. Although the proportion of Gree's operating assets has been declining in the past five years, it was still as high as 60% in 2019, which is obviously superior to Midea's level of about 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e078eb9e78e93f06a79b833abc8fcf\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 1: Comparison of assets of parent companies of Gree and Midea Data source: company financial report, wind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a></p><p><b>What are the specific aspects of Midea's diversified and international layout led by controlled investment?</b></p><p>In 1980, Midea entered the home appliance industry with its electric fan business, and began to enter air conditioning in 1985. In order to achieve breakthroughs in technology and production capacity, as early as 1992, Midea and Xida jointly invested in the establishment of Welling Motor and began to get involved in motor manufacturing; In 1993, Midea achieved a breakthrough in air conditioning manufacturing by signing a technical cooperation contract with Toshiba, and at the same time planted the seeds for Midea's merger and acquisition road.</p><p>In 1998, Midea invested 81 million yuan to acquire 60% equity of Guangdong Toshiba Macro Refrigeration and Motor Company, and became the Chinese controlling shareholder of the joint venture company (later renamed Meizhi).</p><p>This war is of great significance to the United States. Through this acquisition, Midea independently mastered two key technologies of compressor and motor, built a complete industrial chain in the field of air conditioning, and became one of the few enterprises in China with both air conditioning production capacity and production of core components of compressor and motor.</p><p>As of 2019, Meizhi, Lingda and Highly consolidated their monopoly in compressors, with CR3 accounting for more than 70%. Among them, Meizhi's market share is as high as 34.8%, which not only realizes the self-supply of Midea, but also is the core supplier of OEMs such as Oaks.</p><p>As we all know, compressors and motors, as the core components of air conditioners, account for about 40% of the manufacturing cost of air conditioners, and are also the keys to efficient frequency conversion of air conditioners. Midea's control of upstream core components has brought considerable cost and technical advantages to it, and enhanced its comprehensive competitiveness of air conditioners.</p><p>Take Oaks as an example. 85% of its compressors are purchased from Meizhi and Highly, and 40% of its motors are purchased from Welling Motor. At present, the average cost of self-equipped compressor and motor in air conditioning production is about 100 yuan and 20 yuan lower than that of external mining. Under the cost advantage, the profit of Midea's single air conditioner in 2019 was about 219 yuan higher than that of Oaks.</p><p>Time goes back to 2004, and this year is of great significance to beauty. Midea began to accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions in the field of white goods, and realized the layout of the whole industrial chain of white goods.</p><p>In May, Midea took over 42.4% equity of Hualing's major shareholder for 235 million yuan (in 2007, Midea Electric realized full control of Guangdong Valin, Hefei Hualing and China Refrigerator), and officially entered the refrigerator industry; In November, it acquired 50.5% equity of Royalstar for US$20 million (it achieved full control in 2008 and the right to use the brand ended in 2013), and entered the field of washing machines. So far, Midea has basically formed the whole industrial chain layout of air conditioners, motors, compressors, refrigerators, washing machines and small household appliances.</p><p>In 2008, Midea invested 1.68 billion in cash to acquire 24.01% equity of Little Swan, a well-known brand of washing machines. Together with 5.63% of Little Swan's B shares purchased by overseas subsidiaries in the secondary market, Midea holds nearly 30% equity of Little Swan, becoming the largest shareholder of Little Swan.</p><p>In the following years, Midea achieved full control of Little Swan in 2019 through various capital operation methods such as increasing holdings in the secondary market, tender offer, share swap and merger.</p><p>Before the acquisition of Little Swan to integrate the washing machine business, Midea had a huge gap with Haier in the field of washing machines. In 2007, Haier's market share was 21.4%, while Midea's market share was less than 6% after establishing itself in washing machines with the help of Royalstar; After acquisition and integration, Midea's washing machine business has grown rapidly. According to the sales data of Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, by 2019, the pattern of duopoly in the domestic washing machine field will be further stabilized, and the market shares of Haier and Midea are very close, both around 32%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bcfd117da75db22068245e80901e8af\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 2: Comparison of market share of washing machines between Midea and Haier Source: Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, 36 Krypton</p><p><b>In the field of small home appliances, the expansion of Midea is similar.</b></p><p>After producing fans in 1980, in 1990s, through technical cooperation and equipment introduction with Japanese giants such as Sanyo and Toshiba, he mastered the technology of small household appliances such as rice cookers and microwave ovens.</p><p>After 2000, it expanded into the fields of induction cooker, soybean milk machine, water dispenser, pressure cooker, range hood and other fields through self-built subsidiaries.</p><p>From 2000 to 2010, Midea realized the continuous expansion in the fields of dishwashers, vacuum cleaners, air purifiers and lighting through joint ventures with Meloni, Italy, and the acquisition of Chunhua and Guiya Lighting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f75978648d2144e9516bfc42a246aa\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 3: Midea's expansion road in small home appliances Data source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>After forming the whole industrial chain layout in the field of home appliances, Midea has established an internationalization strategy.</b></p><p>In fact, Midea's internationalization road has an early origin, which originated from the OEM foundry mode in the late 1980s. With two production bases in Vietnam and Shunde, Midea secured OEM orders from 18 retail groups and 10 well-known brands around the world at this stage.</p><p>After opening up the international market by OEM mode, in 2010, Midea accelerated the independent construction of overseas brands by relying on two strategies of equity holding and self-built overseas production bases.</p><p>In 2010, Midea acquired 32.5% equity of Miraco, an Egyptian air-conditioning company, obtained the company's brand, market and channel advantages, and successfully entered the African market; In 2011, it acquired 51% equity of Carrier Latin American Air Conditioning Company as a platform for Midea to carry out air conditioning business in Latin America; In 2016, it acquired 80% equity of Clivet, an Italian central air conditioner, to realize complementary resources and expand the European market; In the same year, Midea completed the acquisition of 80.1% equity of Toshiba's home appliance business in Japan, obtained the global authorization of Toshiba brand for 40 years and more than 5,000 patented technologies, and successfully opened the ASEAN market; In 2017, it acquired Eureka, Electrolux's North American vacuum cleaner business, further integrating the global layout of small home appliances.</p><p>While buying and buying, Midea also started to build its own branches, R&D centers and production bases overseas, promoting the transformation of its own organizational form from \"Chinese export\" to \"local operation\". The expansion of product categories, the implementation of manufacturing localization and supply chain localization, and the continuous improvement of product quality in overseas factories have gained high recognition for Midea's overseas expansion.</p><p>After 53 years of efforts, the current Midea has become an excellent large-scale multinational group. As of 2019, its business covers consumer electrical appliances, HVAC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>And automation system and digitalization business, providing diversified product categories and services including HVAC, washing machines, refrigerators, kitchen appliances and various small household appliances.</p><p>Meanwhile, Midea's business covers more than 200 countries and regions, with 34 major production bases (including 17 overseas production bases) and 28 R&D centers (including 18 overseas R&D centers), and about 30,000 overseas employees.</p><p>In 2019, Midea Group achieved a total revenue of 279.4 billion yuan, with a stable gross profit margin of around 30% and a net profit margin close to 10%. Among them, the contribution rate of overseas market revenue was 42%, and the expansion momentum was rapid.</p><p><b>Midea's controlled investment strategy is of great significance for it to master technology, quickly enter market segments and increase market share. At the same time, it also brings a powerful scale effect to Midea.</b></p><p>According to the comparison between the parent company and the consolidated statement of Midea in the past five years, the controlled investment strategy has brought considerable expansion effect to Midea. In the past five years, its efficiency of leveraging total resources through controlled investment has always exceeded twice.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ed96eba0463002ff62ecb82c4f235\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 4: Midea Group's expansion effect Source: wind, 36 Krypton</p><p>The continuous expansion of scale advantage has given Midea a strong voice in upstream raw materials and downstream channels. The strong upstream fund-holding ability and downstream payment collection ability optimized the capital structure and assets and liabilities of the enterprise, and ensured that Midea could achieve the steady growth of its own funds under low financial risks; Strong upstream and downstream bargaining power forms advantages in product pricing and raw material cost, ensures the stable expansion of gross profit, and realizes the Matthew effect in the fierce competition in the home appliance market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b2a36a1b2022fa92c0deeb26e19692\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 5: Midea's upstream and downstream voice Source: wind, 36 Krypton</p><p><b>Midea's Moat: R&D and Efficiency</b></p><p>After decades of rapid development, with the cooling of the real estate market, China's home appliance industry has entered the era of stock. In 2019, the total export + domestic sales volume of the home appliance industry was 1,106.6 billion yuan, down 1.35% year-on-year.</p><p>From incremental market to stock market, the survival logic of home appliance enterprises has also changed from absorbing incremental share to eroding the market share of rivals, and price war has become the theme of 2019.</p><p>Take air conditioners as an example. In February 2019, Midea took the lead in reducing prices by 10%, provoking a new round of price war. On the one hand, the price reduction promotion is to suppress the expansion of second-and third-tier enterprises led by Oaks; On the other hand, it is to use the advantage of low inventory to contain Gree's shipment and grab the first-mover advantage.</p><p>In June, Gree joined the war situation, turned defensive into offensive after Double Eleven, and launched the historical \"3 billion big profit\" and \"10 billion big profit\" activities, with the average price dropping by over 30%.</p><p>Under the influence of the leading competition strategy and the epidemic situation, the price war in 2019 lasted for nearly 20 months. In the most intense period, the average price of the industry dropped by as much as 20-30%. The average price of the industry for the whole year was lower than that of the price war in 2015, which was the lowest in the past decade.</p><p><b>The final result ended in a big win for Midea.</b>Midea not only achieved its share surpassing Gree by virtue of its first-mover advantage; At the same time, when the selling price is 15% lower than that of Gree, the net profit level is flat or even slightly exceeds that of Gree. At the same price as Haier and Oaks, the net profits of both companies have suffered losses, and Midea has achieved a lead of 8-10 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74a4b9f4dbb614dd23d4ab09aec19f0\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 6: Comparison of net profit margin of air conditioning manufacturers during price war in 2019 Data source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>To win in this cruel price war, apart from Midea's diversified product structure, which can naturally resist risks, what else does Midea's moat have?</b></p><p><b>Excellent product strength is the first moat of Midea.</b></p><p>After 2013, with the favorable withdrawal of home appliances going to the countryside, trade-in and energy-saving subsidy policies, the home appliance industry fell into demand overdraft. At this time, Midea began to transform from scale-oriented to profit-oriented.</p><p>In terms of product categories, Midea makes a big subtraction. From the initial 64 categories to 32, if the sub-categories fail to be one of the best in the industry, they will face the risk of being cut; In product layout, Midea accelerated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>With the creation of home system, Midea's LOT platform has created more than 200 boutique intelligent scenes through AI technology, security technology and big data, providing consumers with personalized and customized package purchase choices.</p><p>This adjustment makes Midea reduce a large number of low-end and low-profit products, and transform to high-quality and intelligent products. By focusing on core categories and improving product quality and intelligent experience, the Company straightened out the lines of sub-brands and enhanced the comprehensive competitiveness of brands.</p><p>Take air conditioning as an example. At present, Midea has not only formed a vertical layout from compressor, motor to whole machine manufacturing; At the same time, it also covers the high, medium and low-grade brand matrix of all categories.</p><p>COLMO, which focuses on the high-end market, is equipped with the self-developed third-generation AI smart eye, and its intelligent technology and experience far exceed that of Gree and Haier, moving closer to Mitsubishi and Daikin; Midea's main brand, which focuses on the mid-to-high-end market, benchmarks most models of Gree, and shares Gree's share at a lower price with similar performance; In 2019, Hualing, a redefined sub-brand, was transformed into a brand that relies on the Internet, focuses on cost performance and personalized customization for young users, and benchmarks against second-and third-tier online celebrity brands such as Xiaomi and Oaks. With its performance, technology and cost advantages, it strengthened its market share in the low-end market.</p><p><b>Behind the excellent product strength is the result of years of continuous R&D investment.</b></p><p>At present, Midea implements a \"two-level and four-level\" R&D framework. The so-called two-tier and four-tier refers to the implementation of a two-tier R&D system with Academia Sinica as the core and R&D platforms of each business unit as the supplement in organizational structure; In terms of R&D content, we implement a four-level R&D system from advanced research, common technology, individual technology to product development.</p><p>Among them, Academia Sinica is responsible for carrying out disruptive research, cutting-edge technology research, and common technologies; The platform of the business unit is responsible for personalized technology research and product development. The coordinated development of the two-tier technology research lays the foundation for Midea to build the world's top R&D capabilities, provide medium-and long-term technical reserves, and achieve leading product capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0562c8f1e153534130c3723343736a6\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 7: Midea's R&D system Data source: Internet, 36 Krypton</p><p>In terms of R&D investment, Midea's R&D expenses are greater than those of the other two white goods enterprises all the year round. In the past five years, Midea has invested nearly 40 billion yuan in R&D, and the annual expense rate has remained stable above 3%. In 2019, it exceeded 10 billion yuan.</p><p>The huge R&D investment has ensured Midea's accumulation of authorized invention patents. In the first half of 2020, Midea applied for 6,162 patents worldwide and obtained 1,649 invention patents, ranking first in the home appliance industry, escorting the company's multi-business and multi-brand development.</p><p>As of 2019, Midea has a total of 13,727 R&D personnel at home and abroad, with a total of more than 3,500 masters and doctorates, of which the proportion of masters and doctorates from Academia Sinica exceeds 75%. Although 10.18% of the total R&D personnel accounts for less than that of the other two giants, Midea's R&D efficiency is higher if measured by the number of authorized patents per capita.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23f06266dfc227fc4f8dcc200a88ca2\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 8: Proportion of R&D personnel in three enterprises Source: Cinda Securities, 36 Krypton</p><p>The efficiency of R&D personnel is inseparable from Midea's complete incentive mechanism for front-line researchers. Since 2014, Midea has launched equity incentive, restricted stock incentive, business partner and global partner plans, covering key business personnel in different batches, especially in terms of the inclination of R&D personnel. The average proportion of R&D personnel in the seven equity incentive plans is close to 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47fd955463498a3ad2f38c74b3dc8f2\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 9: Percentage of Midea's talent incentive policies Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>Cost reduction and efficiency increase brought about by positive change is the second moat of Midea.</b></p><p><b>On the production side, in 2014, Midea took the lead in proposing the \"T +3\" change in Little Swan. In 2017, it began to popularize it to all categories, opening up a flexible production mode of sales-based production.</b></p><p>The connotation of \"T +3\" is to reduce the time of each of the four cycles (T) of receiving user orders, stocking raw materials, factory production and delivery sales from 7 days to 3 days, so as to improve the overall supply efficiency.</p><p>Under T +3 mode, enterprises can react quickly to raw material price changes, reducing the impact of raw material price fluctuations and high inventory on costs.</p><p>Take the price war in 2019 as an example. When the raw material price entered a downward cycle at the end of 2018, Midea made a reasonable production schedule by virtue of T +3 mode, which avoided the impact of raw material price changes on costs in high inventory mode, and prompted Midea to take the lead in reducing prices and seizing market share with low cost advantage.</p><p><b>On the channel side, Midea's forward-looking online layout and later \"network batch mode\" have greatly improved its control over downstream channels.</b></p><p>In 2008, Midea began to try online channel layout. In 2014, it set up an e-commerce company to vigorously promote online direct sales. The forward-looking online layout has enabled it to grasp the terminal retail trend earlier, and has become an important position to catch up with Gree and Haier in the segment.</p><p>As of 2019, Midea's online channels accounted for over 30%, ranking first in the whole network, and the online revenue growth rate reached 40%, significantly higher than that of offline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bf9132639c9929e7ac58170ed9f85f\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 10: Midea's online and offline market ranking of various categories of products Source: Financial Report, 36Kr</p><p>The mature promotion of online layout makes it possible for Midea to promote the \"network batch mode\" on the channel side.</p><p>Compared with the multi-level channel system of Gree sales department, agents and distributors, the online batch mode weakens the role of sales department. Downstream distributors can skip the sales department level and directly place orders with manufacturers through Meiyun Sales APP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7739915460fc3d4781465ba99b4b19\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 11: Comparison of two channels Data source: Zhongtai Securities, 36 Krypton</p><p>Because the sales division has a higher markup across the entire channel (retaining a net profit margin of 5%-8%), the reliance on the sales division is reduced, which brings cost intensification and compression of the markup rate to Midea.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06178\">Everbright Securities</a>According to the calculation, after the promotion of the network batch model, in 2019, the terminal price difference of Midea compared with Gree's single air conditioner expanded from 500 yuan to 700 yuan, of which the gross profit of the sales company is the key to Midea's price advantage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62eb295b15ab1a61aaa9b4a1200a3c95\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 12: Gree Hemei's pricing comparison data source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">Everbright Securities</a>36 Krypton</p><p><b>On the logistics side, under the digital transformation, the establishment of Ande Zhilian's \"National One Plate\" logistics system has achieved cost reduction and efficiency improvement in Midea's transportation process.</b></p><p>In 2015, Ande Zhilian began to undertake Midea Group's T +3 one-plate strategy. In 2017, the reform of the logistics system was further promoted, and the warehouses previously scattered by agents all over the country were concentrated in the warehouse of Ande Logistics Center, and Ande Logistics conducted unified warehouse distribution, thus building a supply chain logistics system of \"shared warehousing, unified dispatching, quick response and quick distribution\".</p><p>The core of unified warehouse distribution is that the company realizes the integrated management and control of multi-channel inventory data through the application of digital information system, completely connects the information flow, capital flow and physical logistics, improves the turnover efficiency of all channels, and reduces logistics and warehousing costs.</p><p>As of the first half of 2020, Ande Zhilian had 140 regional distribution centers across the country, covering 2,875 districts and counties and 39,862 towns and villages across the country, with a 24-hour distribution coverage of 51% and a 48-hour coverage of 87%.</p><p><b>Midea's Star Sea: Becoming a Multinational Science and Technology Group</b></p><p><b>Becoming a global technology group with full digital intelligence is the sea of stars in the future of Midea.</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, Midea will upgrade the three strategies of \"product leadership, efficiency driven and global operation\" for 10 years to the four strategic axes of \"technology leadership, user direct access, digital intelligence driven and global breakthrough\", which marks the further clarification of Midea's strategic path from product leadership to technology leadership.</p><p><b>Midea's road of technological transformation originated from the \"632\" strategy in 2013.</b></p><p>\"632\" means building \"six operation platforms\", \"three management platforms\" and \"two portals and integrated technology platforms\". Its connotation is to build an information platform for the whole industrial chain of enterprises. Through the cooperation and upgrading of hardware and business side, the Company will realize the optimization of business processes and the standardization of the company's data system, and provide the data and underlying operation foundation for the subsequent industrial digitalization and intelligent transformation.</p><p><b>With the advancement of the \"632\" strategy, Midea's digital intelligence process has accelerated.</b></p><p>In 2015, Midea and Yaskawa Electric jointly established two companies, Yaskawa Midea Industrial Robot and Service Robot (they stopped cooperating in 2020), marking Midea's entry into the field of robotics.</p><p>Invested in domestic robotics companies in 2016<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688165\">Eft.</a>After that, in 2017, Midea completed the acquisition of KUKA, another star enterprise of the four robot families, at 29.2 billion yuan and 48 times the price-to-earnings ratio, providing a foundation for independently mastering intelligent manufacturing.</p><p><b>In the early stage of technological transformation, Midea's main goal was to use digital intelligence for internal business empowerment and efficiency improvement and smart life experience for C-end, that is, to realize the Group's \"double intelligence\" strategy (smart home + intelligent manufacturing).</b></p><p>Through data and technology empowerment, Midea finally implemented multi-scenario applications such as smart factory, C2M, digital marketing, intelligent customer service and intelligent logistics in intelligent manufacturing, helping the company to improve the efficiency of the whole value chain from procurement to production to sales and transportation.</p><p>From the perspective of financial data, during 2013-2017, while optimizing the number of employees, Midea's per capita income and profit generation maintained positive growth, especially reflecting that the per capita income generation at the output side increased more obviously than that of competitors; At the same time, if the year-on-year growth rate of per capita output is used to measure the degree of production automation, Midea's performance is also better than its rivals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f30b40770a5aa778d5217d5b037ee59\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 13: Midea's automated measurement data Source: Cinda Securities, 36 Krypton</p><p>In terms of smart home, Midea not only applies advanced technology to the intelligence of its own products, but also launches smart home appliances such as COLMO, its main sub-brand of AI intelligence. In order to solve the problem of device compatibility, it also sets the strategic goal of ecological cooperation, builds Midea Mercure, a fully open platform, and optimizes the smart life experience of C-end users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6942fd164a0b07ea2eee0b69eafed5f\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 14: Midea Mercure Ecological Data Source: Midea official website, 36 Krypton</p><p><b>In 2018, M.loT, Midea's industrial Internet platform, was released, marking the arrival of a new stage of Midea's technological transformation. The focus of transformation has shifted from facing the C-end and internal empowerment to opening up the B-end and external export.</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Meiqing, version 2.0 of Midea's industrial Internet, was released. Compared with the full-process digital solution of \"Consulting + Product + Implementation\" in version 1.0, Meiqing has deepened the integration of digitalization and robot automation, and provided a complete set of solutions from products to services to customers in various industries with core components, robot body, robot unit and fully automated system.</p><p>The launch of Meiqing is the expansion of Midea's own capability boundary, the entrance to the platformization of industrial resources, and provides support for the accelerated interpretation of Midea's B-end intelligent manufacturing solution solver role.</p><p>Compared with 2C business, 2B business has higher barriers to competition. At present, China is still in its infancy in this field, and there is a broad room for growth under the catalysis of 5G technology in the future. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>It is estimated that the market space of industrial Internet in 2021 will be about 780 billion yuan, with an annualized growth rate of 13%.</p><p>In 2B business, Midea's ambition goes far beyond industrial manufacturing. At the end of 2020, Midea acquired Lingwang Elevator, integrating its advantages in the field of central air conditioning, and further deepening its layout in the field of smart buildings and smart parks; In early 2021, Midea acquired for 2.3 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600055\">Wandong Medical</a>Using its layout in the field of medical devices combined with its own advantages in robot automation, it will expand into smart medical care.</p><p>Compared with other platforms, Midea's current advantage lies in the continuous broadening of capability boundaries and the deep integration of digitalization and robot automation. Moreover, Meiqing has produced very considerable results within Midea, which is more convincing to customers in various industries.</p><p>By the end of 2020, the customers served by Meiqing have covered more than 40 industries and more than 200 companies, and the forms of products and services have been further enriched. The service objects have been expanded to automobiles, daily chemicals, home textiles, real estate and other fields, gradually reflecting the embryonic form of ecology.</p><p><b>Huge Goodwill: Opportunity or Hidden Mines</b></p><p>At present, the biggest worry of the market for Midea lies in the risk of performance decline implied behind its huge goodwill.</p><p>At the end of 2019, the total goodwill in Midea's financial report totaled 28.2 billion, of which nearly 80% was generated from the high-priced acquisition of KUKA in Germany.</p><p>Since the completion of the acquisition in 2017, under the influence of the decline in global automobile demand and the outbreak of the epidemic, KUKA's performance has declined all the way, and its share price has also dropped from the peak of 246 euros to about 37 euros, and its market value has shrunk by more than 80%.</p><p>The change of KUKA's performance combined with the additional conditions that Midea should not interfere with KUKA's operation increased the probability of Midea accruing goodwill impairment and caused the market to worry about its performance decline.</p><p>But as mentioned earlier, Midea's acquisition of KUKA is the result of long-term strategic planning. With the addition of KUKA, Midea has mastered the ability of robot automation, and formed a leading digital and intelligent synergy in the industrial Internet platform, which is difficult to be reflected financially in the short term.</p><p>At the same time, Midea is also accelerating the vertical integration of industrial robot business to make up for the cost shortcomings of KUKA's upstream core components.</p><p>In 2017, Midea first acquired Israeli Gaochuang Transmission, a manufacturer of motion control drives and motors. In early 2020, Midea indirectly controlled<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300048\">Hekang Xinneng</a>In addition to strengthening its core competitiveness in 2B central air-conditioning business, the company's core businesses, industrial frequency converters and servo systems, are also important components of the upstream of industrial robots.</p><p>From the revenue and business structure of the four robot families, KUKA's advantage lies in the control end of the robot body, and the self-production rate of upstream core components is low, resulting in a lower gross profit margin than that of the other three. In the future, Midea's vertical integration in robot business is expected to reduce the upstream cost of KUKA and improve the overall profitability.</p><p>From another perspective, the average revenue of Midea Group in the past three years is 259.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of about 7.5%; The average net profit was 21.8 billion, with a growth rate of 16.5%; The average net cash flow from operating activities was RMB30.3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8ce2cd001dc4b34b04ab166c5a9884\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 15: Midea's revenue and net profit data in recent years Source: wind, 36 Krypton</p><p>According to the company's existing performance scale and growth trend, even if the 22.2 billion goodwill formed by KUKA is impaired at one time, it is difficult to cause a fatal blow to Midea's long-term operation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1112268901640456\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41d6828c57bd869d8fd1acd2f06bebb9","relate_stocks":{"000651":"格力电器"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1112268901640456","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136026980","content_text":"从家电巨头到科技集团,5700亿美的的蜕变之路。\n\n1980年,美的带着第一台“明珠牌”电风扇进军家电行业。\n经过40年的深耕,熬过了春兰、海尔、格力后,美的成为了家电行业的绝对龙头。\n2020年,在业绩利好、公司回购和外资加持的共同作用下,美的集团的股价从年初的58元一路上涨至年底的98元,累计涨幅达到76%;股价高歌猛进的催化,提振美的市值迎来飞跃。从4000亿至6900亿,美的的市值甚至比格力+海尔市值总和还要多出一个科沃斯。\n在国内家电市场,提到空调首先想到的是格力;而冰箱、洗衣机海尔的名声似乎也更大;就算在技术含量略低的小家电领域,九阳、苏泊尔和美的也难分伯仲。\n但是,就是这样一个在细分赛道做不到拔得头筹的公司,却成为了国内家电行业的绝对龙头。\n近年来,随着全球家电产业向国内转移,给各大家电龙头带来了前所未有的机遇和挑战。在美的拿下东芝的家电业务后,2019年,高瓴资本入股格力电器,近日又以340亿元收购了飞利浦的家电业务,未来高瓴有极大的概率通过板块之间的协同来补齐格力在小家电领域的短板。\n随着国内家电产业竞争环境的日益激烈,未来美的集团该如何突围?能够稳坐家电行业的头把交椅,美的究竟有着怎样的魅力?\n本文试图解答以下四个问题:\n\n美的如何成为家电行业的巨头?\n美的的优势是什么?\n美的未来的布局怎样?\n巨额商誉是否形成拖累?\n\n美的扩张之路:一部教科书式的并购史\n提到国内的家电行业,格力和美的是两个绕不开的名字。\n40多年来,两家企业在白电领域你追我赶、相爱相杀的较量,最终在空调领域形成了双寡头格局。相比董小姐的高调,低调的美的从创立之初就有着不一样的战略布局。\n如果说格力追求的是以自主经营为主导,垂直化、区域化的发展路径;那么美的实施的就是典型的以战略投资为导向,横向化、国际化的发展布局。即母公司通过战略投资取得子公司的控制权,通过子公司在全球家电行业的各细分赛道里经营、突破,最终实现集团整体的多元化和国际化扩张。\n通过对两家公司近5年母公司财报的梳理,可以看出这种战略上的差异。\n在母公司报表的投资性资产上,无论从绝对量还是相对占比,美的集团都有明显优势。通过粗略测算,2019年,美的投资性资产总额约为710亿元,同期格力仅为397亿元;且近五年美的投资性资产在总资产中的比重始终维持在40%左右,格力近几年虽有提升,但仍不足20%。\n在经营性资产上,格力电器母公司所产生的的经营性资产是美的母公司的数倍。尽管近5年格力经营性资产的占比在下降,但2019年仍高达60%,相比美的30%左右的水平明显占优。\n\n图1:格力和美的母公司资产对比 数据来源:公司财报,wind,36氪\n美的由控制性投资引领的多元化和国际化布局,具体体现在哪些方面?\n1980年,美的凭借电风扇业务进入家电行业后,1985年开始进军空调。为了实现技术和产能突破,早在1992年,美的就和西达共同出资设立了威灵电机,开始涉足电机制造;1993年,美的又通过与东芝签订技术合作合约,实现在空调制造的突破,同时也为美的并购之路埋下种子。\n1998年,美的出资8100万元,收购了广东东芝万家乐制冷和电机两家公司各60%的股权,成为合资公司的中方控股股东(后更名为美芝)。\n这一战对美的意义重大,通过此次收购,美的自主掌握了压缩机和电机两项关键技术,在空调领域构建了完整的产业链,成为国内屈指可数的既有空调生产能力,又有压缩机、电机核心部件生产的企业。\n截至2019年,美芝、凌达和海立巩固了压缩机的垄断地位,CR3占比超过70%。其中美芝市场份额高达34.8%,不仅实现了对美的的自供,而且也是奥克斯等主机厂的核心供货商。\n众所周知,压缩机和电机作为空调的核心部件,占空调制造成本比重在40%左右,同时也是空调高效变频的关键。美的对上游核心部件的控制为其带来了可观的成本和技术优势,提升了其空调的综合竞争力。\n以奥克斯为例,其压缩机85%采购自美芝和海立,电机40%采购自威灵电机。目前,空调生产中自配压缩机和电机平均成本比外采低约 100 元和 20 元。在成本优势之下,2019年美的单台空调的利润就比奥克斯高出约 219 元。\n时光回到2004年,这一年对美的意义重大。美的开始加快在白电领域并购的脚步,实现了白电全产业链的布局。\n5月,美的以2.35亿元接手华凌大股东42.4%的股权(2007年美的电器实现对广东华菱、合肥华凌以及中国雪柜完全控股),正式进入冰箱行业;11月,又以2000万美元获取荣事达50.5%的股权(2008年实现完全控股,2013年品牌使用权结束),进入洗衣机领域。至此,美的基本形成了空调、电机、压缩机、冰箱、洗衣机、小家电的全产业链布局。\n2008年,美的出资16.8亿现金收购了洗衣机知名品牌小天鹅24.01%的股权,加上境外子公司在二级市场购买的5.63%小天鹅的B股,美的持有小天鹅的股权比例接近30%,成为小天鹅的第一大股东。\n此后数年,通过二级市场增持、要约收购、换股吸收合并等多种资本运作方式,2019年美的实现了对小天鹅的完全控股。\n在收购小天鹅整合洗衣机业务前,美的在洗衣机领域与海尔的差距巨大。2007年,海尔的市场份额为21.4%,而美的借助荣事达立足洗衣机后市场份额不足6%;在收购整合后,美的洗衣机业务得以快速增长。根据前瞻产业研究院的销量数据,到2019年,国内洗衣机领域双寡头垄断的格局进一步稳定,海尔和美的的市占率已经非常接近,都在32%左右。\n\n图2:美的与海尔洗衣机市占率对比 数据来源:前瞻产业研究院,36氪\n在小家电领域,美的扩张也类似。\n1980年自产风扇后,90年代通过与三洋、东芝等日本巨头的技术合作和设备引进,掌握了电饭煲、微波炉等小家电技术。\n2000年后,通过自建子公司等模式,向电磁炉、豆浆机、饮水机、压力锅、油烟机等领域扩张。\n2000年-2010年,美的通过与意大利梅洛尼合资、收购春花、贵雅照明等,实现了在洗碗机、吸尘器、空气净化器、照明领域的不断扩张。\n\n图3:美的在小家电的扩张之路 数据来源:申万宏源,36氪\n在家电领域形成全产业链布局后,美的确立了国际化的战略。\n实际上,美的的国际化之路早有起源,最初萌生自80年代后期的OEM代工模式。凭借越南和顺德两个生产基地,该阶段美的获得了全球18家零售集团和10个知名品牌的OEM订单。\n靠着OEM模式打开国际市场后,2010年,美的靠着参股控股和自建海外生产基地两种战略,加快了海外品牌的自主化构建。\n2010年,美的收购埃及空调公司Miraco32.5%的股权,获得该公司的品牌、市场以及渠道优势,顺利进入非洲市场;2011年,收购开利拉美空调公司51%的股权,作为美的在拉美开展空调业务的平台;2016年,收购意大利中央空调Clivet80%的股权,实现资源互补,布局欧洲市场;同年,美的完成了对日本东芝家电业务80.1%的股权收购,获得了东芝品牌40年的全球授权以及5000多项专利技术,成功打开东盟市场;2017年收购了伊莱克斯的北美吸尘器业务Eureka,进一步整合了小家电的全球布局。\n在买买买的同时,美的也着手在海外自建分支机构、研发中心和生产基地,推动自身组织形态从“中国出口”向“本地运营”转变。扩大产品品类、实施制造本地化与供应链本地化、持续提升海外工厂产品品质,为美的的海外扩张迎来了极高的认可度。\n经过53年的努力,当前的美的已经成为了一家优秀的大型跨国集团。截至2019年,其业务覆盖消费电器、暖通空调、机器人与自动化系统、数字化业务四大板块,提供包括暖通空调、洗衣机、冰箱、厨房家电及各类小家电等多元化的产品种类与服务。\n与此同时,美的业务覆盖超过200个国家和地区,拥有34个主要生产基地(包括17个海外生产基地)和28个研发中心(包括18个海外研发中心),海外员工约3万名。\n2019年,美的集团实现总营收2794亿元,毛利率稳定在30%左右,净利率接近10%。其中海外市场业务营收的贡献率为42%,扩张势头迅猛。\n美的的控制性投资战略对于其掌握技术、快速进入细分市场,提升市占率意义重大。同时也为美的带来了强大的规模效应。\n根据近5年美的母公司和合并报表的对比,控制性投资战略为美的带来了可观的扩张效应。近5年,其通过控制性投资撬动总资源的效率始终超过2倍。\n\n图4:美的集团的扩张效应 数据来源:wind,36氪\n规模优势的不断扩大,让美的在上游原材料和下游渠道上具备了强势的话语权。极强的上游占款能力和下游回款能力,优化了企业资金结构和资产负债情况,保证了美的在较低的财务风险下可以实现自有资金的稳步增长;强大的上下游议价权,则在产品定价和原材料成本上形成优势,保证了毛利润的稳定扩张,在激烈的家电市场竞争中实现马太效应。\n\n图5:美的的上下游话语权 数据来源:wind,36氪\n美的的护城河:研发和效率\n经过数十年的高速发展,随着地产市场的降温,我国家电行业进入存量时代。2019年,家电行业出口+内销总规模为11066亿元,同比下滑1.35%。\n从增量市场到存量市场,家电企业的生存逻辑也由吸收增量份额向蚕食对手的市占率转变,价格战成为2019年的主题。\n以空调为例,2019年2月,美的率先降价10%,挑起新一轮价格战。降价促销一方面是为了打压以奥克斯为首的二、三线企业扩张;另一方面则是借助低库存优势围堵格力出货,抢夺先发优势。\n6月格力加入战局、双十一后反守为攻,发动了历史级“30 亿大让利”、“百亿大让利”活动,均价下探超30%。\n在龙头竞争策略叠加疫情影响下,2019年的价格战持续近20个月,最激烈的时期行业均价降幅高达20-30%之间,全年行业均价低于2015年价格战时期,为近十年最低。\n最终结果以美的的大获全胜而告终。美的不仅凭借先发优势实现了份额反超格力;同时,在售价低出格力15%的情况下,净利水平拉平甚至略超格力,在与海尔、奥克斯售价相近下,两家企业的净利均出现亏损,美的对其实现8-10个点的领先。\n\n图6:2019年价格战期间空调厂商净利率对比 数据来源:中泰证券,36氪\n能在这一轮残酷的价格战中胜出,除了美的多元化的产品结构可以天然抵御风险外,美的的护城河还有什么?\n优秀的产品力是美的的第一道护城河。\n2013年后,随着家电下乡、以旧换新、节能补贴政策利好的退出,家电行业陷入需求透支。此时的美的开始由规模导向向利润导向转型。\n在产品品类上,美的大做减法。从最初的64个品类缩减至32个,子品类如果做不到行业数一数二,就面临被砍的风险;在产品布局上,美的加快智能家居系统的打造,美的LOT平台通过AI技术、安全技术、大数据打造了200多个精品智能场景,为消费者提供个性化、定制化的套购选择。\n这种调整使得美的减少了大量中低端、低毛利的产品,向精品化、智能化转变。通过聚焦核心品类,提升产品品质和智能化体验,理顺了子品牌线条,提升了品牌的综合竞争力。\n以空调为例,目前,美的不仅形成了从压缩机、电机到整机制造的垂直化布局;同时,还覆盖了高、中、低档的全品类品牌矩阵。\n聚焦高端市场的COLMO,搭载了自研的第三代AI智慧眼,智能化技术和体验远超格力和海尔,向三菱、大金靠拢;聚焦中高端市场的美的主品牌,对标格力大部分机型,在性能相近下,以更低的售价分食格力份额;2019年,被重新定义的子品牌华凌,被改造成依靠互联网,针对年轻用户、主打性价比、个性化定制的品牌,对标小米、奥克斯等网红二、三线品牌,凭借性能、技术和成本优势,强化了低端市场的市占率。\n优秀的产品力背后是多年持续研发投入的结果。\n目前美的实施的是“两层四级”的研发架构。所谓两层四级是指,组织结构上实施以中央研究院为核心,各事业部研发平台为辅的两层研发体系;研发内容上实施从先行研究、共性技术、个性技术到产品开发的四级研发体系。\n其中,中央研究院负责开展颠覆性研究、前沿技术研究,及共性技术;事业部平台则负责个性化技术研究和产品开发。两层技术研究协同发展,为美的构建全球顶尖研发能力,提供中长期技术储备,实现产品力领先奠定基础。\n\n图7:美的研发体系 数据来源:互联网,36氪\n在研发投入上,美的的研发费用常年大于另两家白电企业。过去5年,美的研发投入近400亿元,年费用率稳定在3%以上,2019年当年更是超过100亿。\n巨额的研发投入保证了美的在发明授权专利数上的厚积薄发,2020 年上半年,美的在全球范围内专利申请6162件,获得发明专利授权1649件,居家电行业之首,为公司多业务、多品牌发展保驾护航。\n截至2019年,美的共有海内外研发人员13727名,硕博人员合计超过3500人,其中中央研究院硕博人才占比更是超过了75%。尽管10.18%的总研发人员占比低于另两家巨头,但若以人均授权专利数衡量,美的研发效率更高。\n\n图8:三家企业研发人员占比 数据来源:信达证券,36氪\n研发人员的高效离不开美的对一线研究人员完备的激励机制。自 2014 年以来,美的推出股权激励、限制性股票激励、事业合伙人、全球合伙人计划,分不同批次对业务骨干人员进行全方位覆盖,尤其是在研发人员的倾斜方面,7 次股权激励计划中研发人员平均占比接近40%。\n\n图9:美的人才激励政策占比 数据来源:申万宏源,36氪\n积极变革带来的降本增效是美的的第二道护城河。\n在生产端,2014年美的率先在小天鹅提出“T+3”变革,2017年开始向全品类普及,打开了以销定产的柔性生产模式。\n“T+3”的内涵是将接收用户订单、原料备货、工厂生产、发货销售四个周期(T)中每个周期的时间由7天压缩至3天,提升整体供货效率。\nT+3模式下,企业可以对原材料价格变动做出快速反应,降低原材料价格波动和高库存对成本的影响。\n以2019年价格战为例,当2018年底原材料价格进入下行周期后,美的凭借T+3模式进行合理排产,避免了高库存模式下原材料价格变动对成本的影响,促使美的以低成本优势率先降价,抢占市场份额。\n在渠道端,美的前瞻性的线上布局和后来的“网批模式”,大幅提升了对下游渠道的掌控力。\n2008年,美的开始尝试线上渠道布局,2014年成立电商公司,大力推动线上直营。前瞻性的线上布局,使其较早掌握了终端零售趋势,成为在细分领域追赶格力和海尔的重要阵地。\n截至2019 年,美的线上渠道占比超30%,居全网第一,线上收入增速达40%,显著高于线下。\n\n图10:美的各品类产品线上线下市场排名 数据源:财报,36氪\n线上化布局的成熟推进,使得美的在渠道端推广“网批模式”成为可能。\n与格力销司、代理商、经销商的多级渠道体系相比,网批模式削弱了销司的作用,下游经销商可以跳过销司层级,直接通过美云销 APP 向厂商下单。\n\n图11:两种渠道对比 数据来源:中泰证券,36氪\n由于销司在整个渠道加价较高(留存5%-8%的净利润率),因此对销司依赖的降低,为美的带来了成本集约及加价率压缩。\n根据光大证券的测算,网批模式推广后,2019年,美的相比于格力的单台空调的终端价差从500元扩大至700元,其中销司毛利是美的形成价格优势的关键。\n\n图12:格力贺美的定价对比 数据来源:光大证券,36氪\n在物流端,数字化转型下安得智联“全国一盘货”物流体系的搭建,实现了美的运输过程中的降本提效。\n2015年,安得智联开始承接美的集团T+3一盘货战略。2017年开始深入推动物流体系变革,把此前散落在全国各地代理商的货仓集中到安得物流中心仓,由安得物流进行统仓统配,构建起“共用仓储、统一调度、快速响应、快速配送”的供应链物流体系。\n统仓统配的核心是公司通过数字化信息系统的应用,实现多渠道库存数据一体化管控,将信息流、资金流及实物流完全打通,提高全渠道的周转效率,降低物流仓储成本。\n截至2020年上半年,安得智联在全国有140个区域配送中心,覆盖全国2875个区县、39862个乡镇,24小时配送覆盖率51%,48小时覆盖率高达87%。\n美的的星辰大海:成为跨国科技集团\n成为全面数智化的全球科技集团是美的未来的星辰大海。\n2020年末,美的将沿用10年的“产品领先、效率驱动、全球经营”三大战略,升级为“科技领先、用户直达、数智驱动、全球突破”四大战略主轴,标志着美的从产品领先到科技领先战略路径的进一步明确。\n美的的科技转型之路最早起源于2013年的“632”战略。\n“632”即构建“六大运营平台”、“三大管理平台”以及“两大门户和集成技术平台”。其内涵是构建面向企业全产业链的信息化平台。以硬件和业务端的配合升级,实现业务流程优化及公司数据体系的标准化,为后来的产业数字化和智能化转型提供数据与底层运营基础。\n随着“632”战略的推进,美的的数智化进程加速。\n2015年,美的与安川电机合资成立安川美的工业机器人和服务机器人两家公司(2020年停止合作),标志着美的进入机器人领域。\n在2016年入股国内机器人公司埃夫特之后,2017年,美的以292亿元、48倍市盈率完成了对机器人四大家族的另一个明星企业—德国库卡的收购,为自主掌握智能制造提供基础。\n在科技转型的早期,美的主要的目标是将数智化用于对内业务的赋能提效以及针对C端的智慧生活体验,也就是实现集团的“双智”战略(智慧家居+智能制造)。\n通过数据和技术赋能,在智能制造上美的最终落地了智慧工厂、C2M、数字营销、智能客服、智慧物流等多场景应用,助力公司实现从采购到生产再到销售运输的全价值链效率提升。\n从财务数据来看,2013-2017年期间,美的在员工人数优化的同时,人均创收和创利均保持正向增长,尤其是反映产出端的人均创收较竞争对手提升更加明显;同时,若以人均产量的同比增速来衡量生产的自动化程度,美的的表现也同样优于对手。\n\n图13:美的的自动化衡量 数据来源:信达证券,36氪\n在智慧家居方面,美的不仅将先进技术运用到自身产品的智能化上,推出了旗下主打AI智能的子品牌COLMO等智能家电产品,而且为了解决设备兼容问题,还设立了生态合作战略目标,搭建了全开放平台美的美居,优化了C端用户的智慧生活体验。\n\n图14:美的美居生态 数据来源:美的官网,36氪\n2018年,美的工业互联网平台M.loT发布,标志着美的科技转型新阶段的到来。转型重心从面向C端、对内赋能向打通B端、对外输出转变。\n2020年底,美的工业互联网2.0版本美擎对外发布。相比1.0版本“咨询+产品+实施”的全流程数字化解决方案,美擎深化了数字化与机器人自动化的融合,凭借核心部件、机器人本体、机器人单元、完全自动化的系统,向各个行业的客户提供从产品到服务的一整套解决方案。\n美擎的推出是美的自身能力边界的拓展,是产业资源平台化的入口,为美的B端智能制造方案解决商角色的加速演绎提供支持。\n相比于2C业务,2B业务的竞争壁垒更高,当前中国在这一领域仍处于起步阶段,未来在5G技术的催化下,成长空间广阔。根据国信证券测算,2021年工业互联网的市场空间在7800亿元左右,年化增速13%。\n在2B业务上,美的的野心远不止在工业制造环节。2020年底,美的收购菱王电梯,融合自身在中央空调领域的优势,进一步深化在智慧楼宇、智慧园区领域的布局;2021年初,美的以23亿收购万东医疗,运用其在医疗器械领域的布局结合自身机器人自动化的优势,向智慧医疗扩展。\n相比其他平台,美的现阶段的优势在于能力边界的不断拓宽,以及数字化与机器人自动化的深度融合。并且美擎已经在美的内部产生了非常可观的成效,对各行业客户更有说服力。\n截至2020年底,美擎服务的客户已涵盖 40多个行业、超过200家公司,产品和服务的形态进一步丰富,服务的对象扩大到汽车、日化、家纺、地产等多个领域,逐步体现出了生态化的雏形。\n巨额商誉:机遇还是隐雷\n目前,市场对于美的最大的担忧在于其巨额商誉背后隐含的业绩滑坡风险。\n2019年底,美的财报中商誉总额共计282亿,其中近80%产生于高价收购德国库卡。\n自2017年收购完成后,在全球汽车需求下降、疫情爆发的影响下,库卡的业绩一路下滑,股价也从巅峰的246欧元下滑至37欧元左右,市值缩水超80%。\n库卡业绩变脸叠加美的不得干预库卡经营的附加条件,加大了美的计提商誉减值的概率,引发市场对其业绩滑坡的担忧。\n但正如前文所言,美的收购库卡是长期战略规划的结果。库卡的加入令美的掌握了机器人自动化的能力,在工业互联网平台方面形成了领先的数字化和智能化的协同效应,而这种协同在短期内很难在财务上有所体现。\n与此同时,美的也在加快工业机器人业务的垂直整合,弥补库卡上游核心零部件的成本短板。\n2017年,美的先是收购了运动控制驱动器和电机生产商以色列高创传动,2020年初,美的间接控股合康新能,除了强化自身在2B中央空调业务上的核心竞争力以外,这家公司核心业务工业变频器、伺服系统等也是工业机器人上游的重要零部件。\n从机器人四大家族的营收和业务结构看,库卡的优势在于机器人本体的控制端,上游核心零部件自产率较低,导致毛利润空间低于其他三家。而未来美的在机器人业务上的垂直整合,有望降低库卡的上游成本,提升整体盈利能力。\n从另一个角度看,近3年美的集团的平均营收为2595亿元,增速在7.5%左右;平均净利润为218亿,增速16.5%;经营活动产生的现金流量净额平均值为303亿元。\n\n图15:美的近年营收和净利 数据来源:wind,36氪\n按照公司现有的业绩规模和增长趋势,即使库卡形成的222亿商誉发生一次性减值,也很难对美的长期经营造成致命打击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000651":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359953581,"gmtCreate":1616327972843,"gmtModify":1704792926229,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571822975434375","authorIdStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359953581","repostId":"1164108164","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164108164","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"数据宝——中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌,让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持,数据是个宝,炒股不烦恼!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"数据宝","id":"41","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc"},"pubTimestamp":1616298195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164108164?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-21 11:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The latest list of warehousing stocks of northern funds was released, and 13 shares were violently swept","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164108164","media":"数据宝","summary":"本周三大股指周K线集体报收企稳小阴线,上证指数下跌1.4%,深成指下跌2.09%,创业板指数下跌3.09%,均较前一周跌幅大幅收窄。\n本周北上资金继续保持净流入,但周五净卖出40.32亿元,终结了连续","content":"<p>On Wednesday, the weekly K-line of major stock indexes collectively closed to stabilize the small Yin line. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.09%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell by 3.09%, all of which were sharply narrower than the previous week's decline.</p><p>This week, the northbound capital continued to maintain a net inflow, but on Friday, it sold 4.032 billion yuan, ending the net inflow for eight consecutive days. Northbound funds bought a total of 8.708 billion yuan of A shares this week, bargaining for the bottom for two consecutive weeks on the occasion of the market correction. Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock Connect was 676 million yuan, and the total net purchase of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 8.032 billion yuan.</p><p><b>Textile and Garment Industry Receives Northbound Funds to Focus on Adding Positions</b></p><p>According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao, there are 14 industries with a month-on-month increase in the shareholding of northbound funds this week.<b>The textile and garment industry recorded the largest month-on-month increase, with Northbound Capital lately holding 273 million shares in the industry, an increase of 5.64% compared with last weekend.</b>Transportation, iron and steel, machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals and other industries were among the top quarter-on-quarter increases.</p><p>Fourteen Shenwan industries were lightened by northbound funds, and the light manufacturing industry was the most obvious, with a lightening rate of 5.49%. Other industries with more lightening include comprehensive, communication and chemical industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d270a61a1afe9b6bcc4d9052a12fd2\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>Lift the ban and rush to raise funds north</b></p><p>This week, a total of 31 stocks are on the list of active trading. In terms of industry, among the active trading stocks on the list this week, the food and beverage industry is the most concentrated, with 5 stocks on the list.<b>The largest transaction amount is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>With a cumulative turnover of 13.937 billion yuan this week</b>; Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>The cumulative turnover was RMB9.031 billion; The higher transaction amount is also<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">Ping An of China</a>Etc.</p><p>According to the statistics of net purchase and sale amount, a total of 13 stocks on the list this week are net purchases.<b>Gree Electric has the largest net purchase amount, with a net purchase amount of 2.631 billion yuan this week.</b>Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600031\">Sany Heavy Industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>The net purchase amounts were 941 million yuan and 933 million yuan respectively. Among the net stocks sold, Kweichow Moutai has the largest net sales amount, with a net sales amount of 2.313 billion yuan this week.</p><p>This week, Gree Electric, which has just been lifted from the ban, has become the target of crazy funds in the north. The style of holding group stocks is not outdated. After all, there are not many high-quality stocks that can accommodate large funds. As the foreign shareholding ratio reached the prescribed limit, it was once forbidden to buy Gree Electric from the north. After receiving the notice of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Gree Electric's total overseas shareholding ratio was less than 26%, and it reaccepted the purchase of Gree Electric from March 16th. The capital went north to buy Gree Electric crazily, which was the only stock with a net purchase of over 2 billion yuan this week. With the influx of funds, Gree Electric's share price once soared by nearly 10% this week.</p><p>In addition, the concept of \"carbon neutrality\" such as photovoltaics continues to be favored by northbound funds. Longji shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">Tongwei Shares</a>Wait to get key positions.</p><p>The liquor sector was focused on selling, Kweichow Moutai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">Luzhou Old Cellar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>Become an active trading stock of Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is the focus of selling. This week, Kweichow Moutai was once again sold by northbound funds for more than 2.3 billion yuan, making it the only stock with a net sale of more than 2 billion yuan. This is the 10th consecutive week that northbound funds have sold Kweichow Moutai. Luzhou Old Cellar, Shanxi Fenjiu, etc. sold over 100 million yuan this week. Wuliangye alone received a net purchase of more than 300 million yuan from the north.</p><p>In terms of capital flow, 11 active trading stocks received net inflow of main funds this week. The stock with the largest net inflow is Gree Electric, with a net inflow of main funds of 611 million yuan, and the top net inflow of main funds is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">Midea Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000100\">TCL Technologies</a>。 There are 20 stocks with net outflow of main funds, and Ping An of China has the largest net outflow, with a net outflow of 4.81 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f040d29acf23dffe80c2b3e9cce6d09\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This week, there were 846 stocks that increased their positions in the north. In terms of the proportion of increased shares in the total share capital of A shares, there were 26 stocks that increased their positions by more than 0.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002747\">Eston</a>The latest number of shares held was 133,575,800 shares, an increase of 14,487,900 shares compared with the number of shares held last week, accounting for 1.72% of the total share capital; It was followed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000807\">Yunnan Aluminum</a>The increase rate is 1.32%; Other positions with a high margin of increase are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002531\">Tianshun Wind Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000089\">Shenzhen Airport</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688139\">Haier Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603338\">Zhejiang Dingli</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002410\">Glodon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603939\">Yifeng Pharmacy</a>Etc.</p><p>From the perspective of market performance, 17 of the 20 stocks with the top funds in the north rose this week.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300324\">Rotary pole information</a>Shares are up 25.24% this week, ranking first</b>The bigger increases are Haier Bio, Tianshun Wind Energy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002424\">Guizhou Bailing</a>, Eston, et al.</p><p>There are 23 shares with reduced positions accounting for more than 0.5% of the total share capital of A shares, including Chenming Paper, Sophia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601311\">Camel Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00564\">Zheng Coal Machine</a>Shanying International and other stocks have the highest strength to lighten their positions. There are a large number of paper-making concept stocks, and Chenming Paper and Shanying International have the highest reduction rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb8d679585e9b4198387c06e32931cda\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"1177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Northbound Capital Buys 24 Shares for 7 Weeks in a Row</b></p><p>Northbound funds bought 114 shares for four consecutive weeks. In terms of industries, there are many individual stocks in the transportation industry, with 12 stocks. Among them, 24 shares were added by northbound funds for 7 consecutive weeks.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in shareholding ratio,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002960\">Jade Bird Fire</a>The increase in positions was the largest, with 5.88% of the outstanding shares as compared with 7 weeks ago</b>; Other consecutive positions are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002050\">Sanhua Intelligent Control</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603489\">Bafang Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600885\">Hongfa Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00598\">Sinotrans</a>Etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c8105175302112df43ac4a172895f2\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"981\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Northbound Capital sold 132 shares for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of industries, the number of computer stocks ranks first, with 14. From the perspective of the change of shareholding ratio, compared with 4 weeks ago, the proportion of 27 shares reducing their positions exceeded 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002677\">Zhejiang Meida</a>The biggest reduction range, compared with 4 weeks ago reduced 3.17%, other reduction range is larger<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02208\">Goldwind Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002035\">Vantage Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300438\">Penghui Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300073\">Dangsheng Technology</a>Etc.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The latest list of warehousing stocks of northern funds was released, and 13 shares were violently swept</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe latest list of warehousing stocks of northern funds was released, and 13 shares were violently swept\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/41\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">数据宝 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-21 11:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, the weekly K-line of major stock indexes collectively closed to stabilize the small Yin line. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.09%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell by 3.09%, all of which were sharply narrower than the previous week's decline.</p><p>This week, the northbound capital continued to maintain a net inflow, but on Friday, it sold 4.032 billion yuan, ending the net inflow for eight consecutive days. Northbound funds bought a total of 8.708 billion yuan of A shares this week, bargaining for the bottom for two consecutive weeks on the occasion of the market correction. Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock Connect was 676 million yuan, and the total net purchase of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 8.032 billion yuan.</p><p><b>Textile and Garment Industry Receives Northbound Funds to Focus on Adding Positions</b></p><p>According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao, there are 14 industries with a month-on-month increase in the shareholding of northbound funds this week.<b>The textile and garment industry recorded the largest month-on-month increase, with Northbound Capital lately holding 273 million shares in the industry, an increase of 5.64% compared with last weekend.</b>Transportation, iron and steel, machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals and other industries were among the top quarter-on-quarter increases.</p><p>Fourteen Shenwan industries were lightened by northbound funds, and the light manufacturing industry was the most obvious, with a lightening rate of 5.49%. Other industries with more lightening include comprehensive, communication and chemical industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d270a61a1afe9b6bcc4d9052a12fd2\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>Lift the ban and rush to raise funds north</b></p><p>This week, a total of 31 stocks are on the list of active trading. In terms of industry, among the active trading stocks on the list this week, the food and beverage industry is the most concentrated, with 5 stocks on the list.<b>The largest transaction amount is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>With a cumulative turnover of 13.937 billion yuan this week</b>; Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>The cumulative turnover was RMB9.031 billion; The higher transaction amount is also<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">Ping An of China</a>Etc.</p><p>According to the statistics of net purchase and sale amount, a total of 13 stocks on the list this week are net purchases.<b>Gree Electric has the largest net purchase amount, with a net purchase amount of 2.631 billion yuan this week.</b>Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600031\">Sany Heavy Industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>The net purchase amounts were 941 million yuan and 933 million yuan respectively. Among the net stocks sold, Kweichow Moutai has the largest net sales amount, with a net sales amount of 2.313 billion yuan this week.</p><p>This week, Gree Electric, which has just been lifted from the ban, has become the target of crazy funds in the north. The style of holding group stocks is not outdated. After all, there are not many high-quality stocks that can accommodate large funds. As the foreign shareholding ratio reached the prescribed limit, it was once forbidden to buy Gree Electric from the north. After receiving the notice of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Gree Electric's total overseas shareholding ratio was less than 26%, and it reaccepted the purchase of Gree Electric from March 16th. The capital went north to buy Gree Electric crazily, which was the only stock with a net purchase of over 2 billion yuan this week. With the influx of funds, Gree Electric's share price once soared by nearly 10% this week.</p><p>In addition, the concept of \"carbon neutrality\" such as photovoltaics continues to be favored by northbound funds. Longji shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">Tongwei Shares</a>Wait to get key positions.</p><p>The liquor sector was focused on selling, Kweichow Moutai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">Luzhou Old Cellar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>Become an active trading stock of Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is the focus of selling. This week, Kweichow Moutai was once again sold by northbound funds for more than 2.3 billion yuan, making it the only stock with a net sale of more than 2 billion yuan. This is the 10th consecutive week that northbound funds have sold Kweichow Moutai. Luzhou Old Cellar, Shanxi Fenjiu, etc. sold over 100 million yuan this week. Wuliangye alone received a net purchase of more than 300 million yuan from the north.</p><p>In terms of capital flow, 11 active trading stocks received net inflow of main funds this week. The stock with the largest net inflow is Gree Electric, with a net inflow of main funds of 611 million yuan, and the top net inflow of main funds is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">Midea Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000100\">TCL Technologies</a>。 There are 20 stocks with net outflow of main funds, and Ping An of China has the largest net outflow, with a net outflow of 4.81 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f040d29acf23dffe80c2b3e9cce6d09\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This week, there were 846 stocks that increased their positions in the north. In terms of the proportion of increased shares in the total share capital of A shares, there were 26 stocks that increased their positions by more than 0.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002747\">Eston</a>The latest number of shares held was 133,575,800 shares, an increase of 14,487,900 shares compared with the number of shares held last week, accounting for 1.72% of the total share capital; It was followed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000807\">Yunnan Aluminum</a>The increase rate is 1.32%; Other positions with a high margin of increase are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002531\">Tianshun Wind Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000089\">Shenzhen Airport</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688139\">Haier Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603338\">Zhejiang Dingli</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002410\">Glodon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603939\">Yifeng Pharmacy</a>Etc.</p><p>From the perspective of market performance, 17 of the 20 stocks with the top funds in the north rose this week.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300324\">Rotary pole information</a>Shares are up 25.24% this week, ranking first</b>The bigger increases are Haier Bio, Tianshun Wind Energy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002424\">Guizhou Bailing</a>, Eston, et al.</p><p>There are 23 shares with reduced positions accounting for more than 0.5% of the total share capital of A shares, including Chenming Paper, Sophia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601311\">Camel Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00564\">Zheng Coal Machine</a>Shanying International and other stocks have the highest strength to lighten their positions. There are a large number of paper-making concept stocks, and Chenming Paper and Shanying International have the highest reduction rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb8d679585e9b4198387c06e32931cda\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"1177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Northbound Capital Buys 24 Shares for 7 Weeks in a Row</b></p><p>Northbound funds bought 114 shares for four consecutive weeks. In terms of industries, there are many individual stocks in the transportation industry, with 12 stocks. Among them, 24 shares were added by northbound funds for 7 consecutive weeks.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in shareholding ratio,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002960\">Jade Bird Fire</a>The increase in positions was the largest, with 5.88% of the outstanding shares as compared with 7 weeks ago</b>; Other consecutive positions are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002050\">Sanhua Intelligent Control</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603489\">Bafang Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600885\">Hongfa Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00598\">Sinotrans</a>Etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c8105175302112df43ac4a172895f2\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"981\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Northbound Capital sold 132 shares for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of industries, the number of computer stocks ranks first, with 14. From the perspective of the change of shareholding ratio, compared with 4 weeks ago, the proportion of 27 shares reducing their positions exceeded 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002677\">Zhejiang Meida</a>The biggest reduction range, compared with 4 weeks ago reduced 3.17%, other reduction range is larger<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02208\">Goldwind Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002035\">Vantage Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300438\">Penghui Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300073\">Dangsheng Technology</a>Etc.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682417bb8d01bd2903a5dd05857041ce","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164108164","content_text":"本周三大股指周K线集体报收企稳小阴线,上证指数下跌1.4%,深成指下跌2.09%,创业板指数下跌3.09%,均较前一周跌幅大幅收窄。\n本周北上资金继续保持净流入,但周五净卖出40.32亿元,终结了连续8天的净流入。北上资金本周累计买入A股87.08亿元,在大盘回调之际连续2周抄底。其中,沪股通净买入6.76亿元,深股通合计净买入80.32亿元。\n纺织服装行业获北上资金重点加仓\n证券时报•数据宝统计显示,本周北上资金持股量环比增加的有14个行业,纺织服装行业环比增幅最大,北上资金最新持有该行业2.73亿股,相比上周末增长5.64%。环比增幅居前的有交通运输、钢铁、机械设备、有色金属等行业。\n14个申万行业遭北上资金减仓,轻工制造行业减仓最为明显,减仓幅度为5.49%,其他减仓较多的行业还包括综合、通信、化工等。\n\n格力电器解禁,北上资金抢筹\n本周共有31只个股上榜成交活跃榜榜单,所属行业来看,本周上榜的成交活跃股中,食品饮料行业最为集中,有5股上榜。成交金额最多的是贵州茅台,本周累计成交139.37亿元;其次是五粮液,累计成交金额90.31亿元;成交金额较高的还有宁德时代、中国平安等。\n以净买卖金额统计,本周上榜的个股中,共有13只股为净买入,净买入金额最多的是格力电器,本周净买入金额为26.31亿元,其次是三一重工、隆基股份,净买入金额分别为9.41亿元、9.33亿元。净卖出个股中,净卖出金额最多的是贵州茅台,本周净卖出额为23.13亿元。\n本周,刚解禁的格力电器成为北上资金疯狂抢筹的标的,抱团股的打法并未过时,毕竟可以容下大资金的质优股并不是很多。由于外资持股比例达到规定的限制,一度禁止北上资金买入格力电器,接深交所通知,格力电器总境外持股比例低于26%,于3月16日起重新接受格力电器的买盘。北上资金就疯狂净买入格力电器,为本周唯一净买入超20亿元的个股。在资金的涌入下,格力电器股价本周一度大涨近10%。\n此外,光伏等“碳中和”概念继续被北上资金青睐,隆基股份、通威股份等获得重点加仓。\n白酒板块被重点抛售,贵州茅台、泸州老窖、山西汾酒成为重点抛售的陆股通成交活跃股。贵州茅台本周再度被北上资金净卖出逾23亿元,为唯一净卖出超20亿元的个股,这已是北上资金连续第10周净卖出贵州茅台。泸州老窖、山西汾酒等本周大幅净卖出超亿元。仅五粮液则获得北上资金逾3亿元的净买入。\n资金流向方面,有11只成交活跃股本周获主力资金净流入,净流入资金最多的个股是格力电器,主力资金净流入金额为6.11亿元,主力资金净流入居前的还有美的集团、TCL科技。主力资金净流出的个股有20只,净流出资金最多的是中国平安,净流出资金为48.1亿元。\n\n本周北上资金加仓股共846只,以增持股占A股总股本比例来看,加仓幅度超0.5%的有26只。\n埃斯顿的加仓力度最大,最新持股数为13357.58万股,与上周的持股数量相比,增长1448.79万股,增持股数量占总股本1.72%;紧随其后是云铝股份,加仓幅度为1.32%;其他加仓幅度靠前的还有天顺风能、深圳机场、海尔生物、浙江鼎力、广联达、益丰药房等。\n从市场表现来看,本周北上资金加仓居前的20股中有17股上涨,旋极信息本周股价上涨25.24%,排名第一,涨幅较大的还有海尔生物、天顺风能、贵州百灵、埃斯顿等。\n减仓股数量占A股总股本比例超0.5%的有23股,晨鸣纸业、索菲亚、骆驼股份、郑煤机、山鹰国际等股的减仓力度靠前。造纸概念股数量较多,晨鸣纸业、山鹰国际减仓幅度靠前。\n\n北上资金连续7周买入24股\n北上资金连续四周买入114股。分行业来看,交通运输行业个股较多,有12只。其中,24股被北上资金连续7周加仓。\n从持股比例变动情况来看,青鸟消防获加仓幅度最大,较7周前增持股数占流通股的比例为5.88%;其他连续加仓的还有三花智控、八方股份、宏发股份、中国外运等。\n\n北上资金连续4周卖出132股。分行业来看,计算机个股数量居前,有14只。从持股比例变动情况来看,与4周前相比,27股减仓比例超1%。浙江美大减仓幅度最大,相比4周前减仓了3.17%,其他减仓幅度较大的还有金风科技、华帝股份、鹏辉能源、当升科技等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318724102,"gmtCreate":1611894794806,"gmtModify":1704865361793,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571822975434375","authorIdStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318724102","repostId":"1127806526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127806526","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1611893610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127806526?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-29 12:13","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127806526","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据币安平台报价,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%,现报0.0843美元/枚。此前,掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说","content":"<p>According to Binance platform quotation, Dogecoin has increased by 1000% in 24 hours and is now traded at $0.0843/coin.</p><p>Previously, the Reddit forum, a gathering place for U.S. retail investors that set off an epic short squeeze, mentioned this asset. A post called \"Dogecoin is the next GME/Bitcoin\" said that getting Dogecoin to the price of $1 a coin (currently around $0.01) would be an incredible achievement, which completely changed the crypto market and sent Dogecoin to the moon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0d53d3d30e42f62105539cb3386286\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-01-29 12:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to Binance platform quotation, Dogecoin has increased by 1000% in 24 hours and is now traded at $0.0843/coin.</p><p>Previously, the Reddit forum, a gathering place for U.S. retail investors that set off an epic short squeeze, mentioned this asset. A post called \"Dogecoin is the next GME/Bitcoin\" said that getting Dogecoin to the price of $1 a coin (currently around $0.01) would be an incredible achievement, which completely changed the crypto market and sent Dogecoin to the moon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0d53d3d30e42f62105539cb3386286\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7205988a988ce4825a8d768caf27bd23","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127806526","content_text":"据币安平台报价,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%,现报0.0843美元/枚。此前,掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说,让Dogecoin达到1美元一个币的价格(目前约为0.01美元)将是一个不可思议的成就,这完全改变了加密市场,送Dogecoin到月球。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}