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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-05-18
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  What is the story of a new Baidu?
  百度回港上市现场，遇到跟踪百度多年的极客公园的创始人张鹏，问他怎么看。张鹏说：“这是百度一直通过技术创造价值的第二次体现，可以理解为百度在互联网搜索技术之外，AI第二技术曲线完成了一次上市。” 当晚，
  What is the story of a new Baidu?
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-05-11
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-05-06
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-04-29
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  The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'
  事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变
  The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-03-30
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  Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business
  朝云集团向外界秀了一下自己的“肌肉”。3月26日，朝云集团发布2020年年度业绩公告。公告显示，朝云集团2020年实现营业收入17.02亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长23%；年内溢利2.33亿元，同比
  Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-03-27
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-03-21
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- wormscccwormsccc
  ·2021-01-29
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  American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!
  据币安平台报价，狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%，现报0.0843美元/枚。此前，掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说
  American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!
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Zhang Peng said, \"This is the second embodiment of Baidu's value creation through technology. It can be understood that Baidu has completed a listing in the second technical curve of AI besides Internet search technology.\"</p><p>That night, Pan Luan made a live broadcast with several friends, talking about Baidu's secondary listing and AI stories, about mobile ecology, cloud business and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving, talk about the rhythm and path of business development.</p><p>Questions include:</p><p>How does Baidu search cope with short video + live expression and consumption mode?</p><p>Where are Baidu's opportunities in cloud computing?</p><p>Which is the most important realization business of Baidu's intelligent driving sector in the future?</p><p>Baidu's self-driving and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What are the different capabilities of Didi?</p><p>……</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0311a26d3913800cbeae05cf8b3f0df8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the end of April, I flipped books randomly and participated in the Vientiane Conference of Baidu Mobile Ecology. Baidu's latest mobile ecological strategy appears in the form of X + Y strategic layout, that is, \"horizontally expanding the scale of users and vertically cultivating the vertical categories of the industry\". At the meeting, nine support plans were released for founders and partners. Good-looking videos should help settled creators realize their cash, Baidu Health should support doctors, MCN institutions, public hospitals and merchants, and Baidu e-commerce should also support brands, merchants and anchors.</p><p>As an \"X\" platform, Baidu APP has three strategies: content video, search personalization,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information Services</a>The latter \"two modernizations\" also directly point to ecological supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a74a662cb78533cd7f518703cafe83\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the later interview session, I flipped through the book and asked several business leaders questions:</p><p>Nowadays, the content quality in good-looking videos is uneven. How to enhance the real sense of content?</p><p>Many of the second clips are fake vocals. How to enhance the authenticity of the content?</p><p>Baidu's X + Y strategic layout, how many kinds of Y are there? What are you going to do?</p><p>What could the next Y be?</p><p>……</p><p>This article is a shorthand of two events to answer a question:</p><p>What is the story of a new Baidu?</p><p><b>Mobile ecology</b></p><p><b>1.1 Is the good-looking frame video a basic information structure similar to the barrage of Station B? Everyone taggable or specific creator? What kind of thinking is the whole?</b></p><p><b>Song Jian</b>(General Manager of Baidu Short Video Ecological Platform)<b>：</b>The structure of frame video is a video that hopes to be a standard of knowledge, from product innovation to real pan-knowledge. Short videos have been entertainment in recent years, and their products are more suitable for entertainment. Compared with barrage, frame videos are more objective and rational, and they are knowledge supplementary information content, so they don't need so many emotions. We want to face a larger user group, so we are thinking about how to define other videos around our videos, which is our starting point.</p><p>We're definitely priority creators to do it, but UGC we're also trying. Now our video information structure, such as medical and health videos, says that this is diabetes. If the frame happens to be in the symptoms of diabetes, he doesn't know this thing particularly clearly by only watching one video. If this point is very well supplemented to the video information, it will be very good. Whether the creator can do this or not, and whether UGC can do this depends on a set of strategies. Baidu will also provide many tools to help do this information.</p><p>The law of information evolution is from low information to high information. Whether it is text recognition or from long video to short video, the information is getting higher and higher. However, this \"high\" is now too high in the network and will increasingly catch the eye through emotions. The information density must go to a higher place, and whether it must go to the extreme emotional stimulation is a question we are thinking about. We want to supplement the information density through frame video, break it up, and increase the information density, but it is not all emotions and some knowledge. On the one hand, cater to the trend, and on the other hand, go to the degree of more standardized video.</p><p><b>1.2 Nowadays, the quality of some content in good-looking videos is uneven. For example, some of the second creation clips are AI synthesized vocals. How do you think of this and how to enhance the real sense of content?</b></p><p><b>Song Jian</b>(General Manager of Baidu Short Video Ecological Platform<b>）：</b>Let me briefly introduce two points, how to improve this problem.</p><p>One is that you should have a better community atmosphere. From the beginning, many products are more scientific when choosing seed authors, that is, it is easy to form a community atmosphere slowly, but this can't be turned back.</p><p>The second is to make more strategies for the author or UGC, so whether you are doing Duka or frame video, new tools should appear to have new things, so as to achieve differentiated things. The second is what we do on our own initiative. Otherwise, it is impossible to make great changes in the ecology without the advantage of volume, so consider it from the perspective of tools (product innovation).</p><p><b>1.3 If you want to attract more users or expert teams to choose Baidu platform, what are the unique advantages of Baidu Health?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e7a2b4434acc3103770af068b02bf6\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Yang Minglu</b>(General Manager of Baidu Health): The first mass foundation. Who is the first thing that comes to mind when you encounter such a situation? Baidu has this mind, which is mainly reflected in the volume of users. We have a very important mass base.</p><p>The second is technical strength. Baidu's technology is very competitive. Based on big data, it makes accurate crowd portraits and AI empowerment. I believe that soon, you will be able to see some very obvious changes, especially in accurate doctor-patient matching. Recently, many patents have been accumulated. This is a powerful technical capability.</p><p>The third is the strong doctor operation capability based on the user base. Why do doctors come to the platform? The big reason is that there are users, but will he stick, because he has to operate many scenes. Baidu Health actually provides doctors with a full-scene platform, including detailed doctors' personal encyclopedia business cards, suggestions on what videos to do in Baijiahao, online consultation, live broadcast, etc. Baidu is a one-stop all-round online practice venue. Therefore, for doctors, it is very important to form a link between these things in one place, so the ability to operate and full-link services are very important points for us to attract more cooperative institutions and doctor groups. The most important thing is to grasp C and B. This is a very important sword for us to do business with Baidu Health today.</p><p><b>1.4 What are the manifestations of the servicing of Baidu's mobile ecology that we can perceive?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua</b>(Former Mobile Baidu Architect)<b>：</b>Among Baidu's more than 30 million daily services, there is also a network. Let's talk about four networks: information network, e-commerce network, industrial network and social network. Baidu is also going deep in the industry network. They love purchasing by themselves, and their income has already risen. It has a lot of room for independent listing, and its income is more than double digits a year. This unit is 100 million. Therefore, I think if Baidu is really willing to give talents more room for growth and release more equity for them to take the lead independently, I think Baidu has a lot to do.</p><p>Love purchasing, B to B this ecology, before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Billions of revenue, at least 3.5 billion revenue is brought by Baidu's traffic. Previously, Baidu only paid 5.6 billion advertising fees in history. Later, Baidu felt that I might as well do this service myself. In fact, this logic is right. B2B Alibaba also provides an intermediate service logic. This logic is very suitable for Baidu, so Baidu did it by itself. Now Baidu is doing well by itself, which has also brought more than double-digit growth and over 100 million income.</p><p><b>1.5 Is it too late for Baidu to make efforts in e-commerce now? How does Baidu plan to make efforts and differentiate?</b></p><p><b>Ping Xiaoli</b>(Vice President of Baidu, General Manager of Baidu APP)<b>：</b>First of all, let me answer why we cut into e-commerce. I think there are several changes in business trends that we have observed here.</p><p>First, the infrastructure of the Internet is becoming more and more mature. From the payment process, it is no longer exclusive to e-commerce. Second, the supply side of e-commerce platforms is constantly enriched, which should be said to be greatly enriched. Now the supply chain is actually completely more open and open, and it is also very open to all platforms. Third, in terms of users' buying habits, today's purchase, in fact, many consumption decisions are motivated and rational, and the scene is motivated. Users may have shopping needs anytime and anywhere. And this kind of shopping demand, with the improvement of Internet infrastructure and the great enrichment of supply side, makes it possible to buy at any time on all occasions.</p><p>Secondly, we think it is not too late for Baidu to cut into e-commerce, because we have these three basic conditions. Not only Baidu, but I think many scenarios may become a possible purchase channel. That is to say, in fact, the phenomenon that China's Internet e-commerce is greatly gathered at the top will gradually change to some extent.</p><p>Furthermore, there are advantages compared with other platforms. When we do such things, we not only see whether the industry has advantages, but also look at them in combination with our own products. In fact, every day, a large number of users search for product category words and brand words, such as which washing machine brand is good. There are many such words. Why do we see so much of this demand? It has not died for so many years, because we see what the user wants to check in the whole process. In fact, he wants to better understand this brand, this product, and how it is, including some of its main parameters, official evaluation and user experience. That is, he will go to Baidu to search before the whole consumption decision pre-link. Let me give you a very simple example. It used to be that you couldn't buy drugs online, but now you can. It turns out that everyone can buy medicine. We see that many users actually want to search in Baidu, such as searching for a certain product for a long time. Why can't he place an order directly? This search is more like three C products and furniture products, and some decision-making users with higher unit prices will be more willing to search, so we think we have certain characteristics here.</p><p>Therefore, for example, when we search for e-commerce, we focus on building two scenarios, one is search scenario and search for e-commerce. In fact, this is also based, which is the basis just mentioned. The second is that from the point of view of the key direction, the key point may not be the same as other platforms, that is, we are all doing some homogeneous competition positively, and we do more good in our venues. Our purpose is not to compare with others about how big the scene is. Today's e-commerce is a service-oriented strategy, and Baidu has no battlefield. It is not this logic to be e-commerce. The whole logic means that from \"content to service\", it is a very important part of the service-oriented strategy, and purchasing goods is a part of services. The purpose of our e-commerce is more about how to better meet the needs of users in this place, dig out their needs, and do a good job in their real shopping needs. When we do it in this scene, we are more biased towards the relatively rational role of users, so that they can choose better products, brands and explosives. These things are our main work. When we do it, we will aggregate more product contents, go to service purchase channels, and give more information to users, so that they can make a comprehensive decision whether they see the price or protect their rights and interests.</p><p>Another scene is \"live broadcast\". Live e-commerce is also a product form that we see growing very fast now, because Baidu actually has information flow in addition to search, recommendation and information flow, and the information flow has also changed greatly from graphics and texts to live broadcast. It is more typical, and it is more suitable for the explosive precipitation of various activities. If live broadcast and e-commerce are precipitated together, it is very smooth. For example, some merchants directly settle their brand stores in Baidu, search for one-click direct access, they can put their most complete stores here, and then they can do some activities with some goods, cooperate with Baidu's stores, and broadcast two more live broadcasts. Let users have some node-based cognition, such as the live broadcast with wine some time ago. In fact, after our live broadcast on the same day, the gmv on the same day was very high. After that, many people searched there and then went back to that store to buy. So, it is a scenario that can be completely undertaken together, so this is the opportunity we see, and it is also some of our ideas that we have been groping and validating in the past period of time.</p><p><b>1.6 Baidu's X + Y strategic layout, how many kinds of Y are there? What are you going to do? What could the next Y be?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1162a7bad64ba3e26a0d37fbb04772e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ping Xiaoli</b>(Vice President of Baidu, General Manager of Baidu APP)<b>：</b>There are about three categories of Y, but good-looking is different from healthy. Good-looking is X, and health is Y. However, these three categories are basically summarized into two categories, which are called Y1, Y2 and Y3 internally. Y1 and Y2 are strongly related to X. Y1 and Y2 take advantage of X platform to give full play to their industrial advantages, and the space market is relatively large. Here, we choose the key and deep platform, and the first choice is the strategy of extending the content of X platform to service. Second, on the track of Y, being able to have a certain market share and some positions of its own is Y1+ Y2. The internal difference between Y1 and Y2 is the difference of size, health is Y2, and the small Y1 does not need to be explained here. Y3 has no strong connection with X. For example, network disk and games are placed in Y3, which are separate industries.</p><p>The vertical class of Y is how to do better and more prosperous, including how to do poorly. In fact, we have a set of shutdown and merging mechanisms in the whole incubation, just to see the progress. Of course, if we can't do it, we will definitely shut down some of them decisively. There are more than ten or twenty vertical classes we do internally, and some teams only have a few people to explore first. The general mechanism is like this.</p><p>How to be better and more prosperous? I think it is very important that every vertical class should find someone who knows this industry. In Baidu, we are on the platform ourselves. I understand the ability of the platform very well, but each vertical class has different playing styles. However, the vertical class can do it by itself. If you don't rely on Baidu's advantages, you may not be able to do it according to the entrepreneurial method. Because it will compete with others in homogeneity, you need a combination of two. Just like when I had a discussion with my colleagues in the previous paragraph, I told him that in fact, you don't know how big a gold mine is in search. Outside, everyone thinks that the traffic should be quite good and the value is quite high. This is still a very open cognition.</p><p>Search can gain insight into consumer demand. For example, it is also a trend for trendy products now, and many of these things can be fed back in time in the minds of users. How to better undertake the needs of this kind of user? If you only search for products, it turns out to literally match the corresponding answers, but the industry is not. You have to see what these questions mean to users, what they need, and then combine them with the products of the industry you design. How to undertake and connect with him? Here, two teams of X and Y need to collide and design. So we have some cooperation here, and we have some teams here that specialize in combining with them. Why is health doing well? In fact, health was incubated by the whole search team, and later joined some people who knew in these industries.</p><p>Therefore, this is also the experience of past practice. The ability and genes of X platform are actually of great help to this industry in the early stage. However, we need the input of professionals in the industry, so we will adhere to such experience and principles in people's organization and product design. What really reflects is the differentiated competition path, not what others have done. I have to do the same as others. This is not Baidu's only idea to do this, so we have chosen many Ys that are strongly related to X.</p><p>In addition to health, it is possible to start the deep layout of Y in many fields of \"education, medical beauty, and automobile\". The logic of the selected vertical category itself must first conform to the strategic logic of the big Baidu APP, which is the \"content + service\" connection point is relatively clear. First of all, the whole decision-making and logic users need a lot of content is demand, and second, the whole back link is that there are services in it. Third, the needs of users in its industry itself are equivalent to part of a certain link happening on Baidu APP, or we have certain advantages. Therefore, when choosing vertical categories, they will choose according to Baidu's genes. Under the logic of choice, it is decided that the main task of these vertical classes is to strengthen Baidu's overall ability in this respect. At the same time, when comparing with other markets at the same time, I also have to look at other categories in other markets. In this case, it provides both a strong stimulus and a sense of survival.</p><p><b>Intelligent Cloud</b></p><p><b>2.1 Which businesses of Baidu are likely to grow independently in the future?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua (former mobile Baidu architect):</b>At present, Baidu's Top80% traffic accounts for several relatively large categories, such as education, health, games and reading, which are all relatively large categories that Baidu can make in-depth efforts. I think a thin camel is bigger than a horse. Don't listen to the outside who always spit on Baidu. There are more than 200 million daily apps, and there are hundreds of hands all the time. There are several apps with more than 30 million daily apps in Baidu, including maps, network disks, etc., all of which are very good. Of course, the most basic search is how to fight the defensive war well, and at the same time, take advantage of the new opportunities in the market in the next 3 to 5 years, grasp and make the second spring, as well as AI to better serve various scenarios, and drive others, whether it is the automobile industry or service industry, smart industry or education, to make greater upgrades and build some basic facilities. There is also a small platform with large basic facilities within 10 years, all of which are considered considerably. Talents realize the trend of the market. Every year, a large number of talents recruited by schools enter Baidu's system in large quantities for incubation.</p><p>As we all know, Baidu has been searching for so many years, and mobile Baidu has about more than 200 million daily lives. Baidu's most valuable businesses now, such as Baidu Netdisk, have about 31 million to 33 million daily active people and an annual income of about 3.3 billion. As you can see, when Baidu went public, Ali issued a horn again, saying that they would also be Ali's network disk. In fact, everyone has seen Baidu's persistence in the network disk for so many years, and there is a small episode in the middle, when 360 gave up the 360 network disk. This matter is a long-term value investment matter. This business is still the first in the industry at present, and it will definitely be split and listed independently.</p><p>There is a huge space for several core businesses in Baidu in the future. For example, Jing Kun is responsible for Xiaodu speakers, which are growing well now. This business is a better product in the future era of instinctive interactive experience, and there is a lot of room. The essence of speaker business is a product of RTC era. RTC is the logic of Real time clock and the service of real-time connection. One of the biggest opportunities for this service in the future is the RTC era. Valuable business in the RTC era. In fact, Tesla's autonomous driving is essentially an RTC service. There is a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Help you calculate in real time, help you see the road conditions, and help you control the car. In fact, this is the same. Duer OS business is also a product of RTC era. Its interactive experience is the same as that of Clubhouse. Every morning, I get up and ask Xiaodu Xiaodu how the weather is. Small degrees, small degrees, open the curtains, which in itself is the future of interactive experience. In this case, Xiaodu's independence is conducive to its growth, and it is also conducive to driving Baidu's share price to continue to rise.</p><p>In addition to Baidu Netdisk and Xiaodu, as we all know, Baidu's health service income has been good for so many years. Personally, I think Baidu Health also has the opportunity to split up, which has a huge value-added space for Baidu's share price. My suggestion is that you can pay attention to these core businesses.</p><p>Here, I would like to mention Baidu Map. I think Baidu Map has done a particularly good job in the past year, and it has been upgraded compared with the previous one. I don't know if you have used Baidu Map to take a taxi. You found that you recently used Didi to take a taxi, and Didi changed a new version. Everyone complained and couldn't find out how to use Didi. But you will find that taking a taxi with Baidu Map is cooler and cheaper than Didi. You can use Baidu Map's taxi, which is indeed easier to use than Didi. My experience these days is the same.</p><p><b>2.2 Where is the technical threshold of cloud disk products?</b></p><p><b>Pan Luan:</b>In fact, the network disk is a very high-tech thing. I can tell you a first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Examples of. In fact, the founding team of Xunlei also went out of Baidu. Co-founder Cheng Hao and CTO Li Jinbo both went out of Baidu. Where is the technical cow of Thunder? It is very similar to the capabilities of the network disk. Thunder wants to crawl, transmit and store. In fact, each of them is a very hard technology. If you have an impression, those who made network disks in the early years were not as powerful as Baidu.</p><p>In fact, Baidu was definitely the first to do distributed computing in China. Baidu's internal operation and management servers should be very strong, because they have to carry the computing power of peaks and valleys. Moreover, 10 years ago, Baidu should have the largest number of servers in China, involving machine management, resource scheduling and the whole network management. In fact, these three core technologies are relatively advanced. At first, Alibaba Cloud's architecture system is exactly the same as Baidu's service system.</p><p><b>Li Tianhua (former mobile Baidu architect):</b>In the middle, we should first talk about the value of cloud disk products and services, that is, the server bandwidth cost that everyone dilutes together. The bandwidth cost of normal Internet companies per megabit CDN is more than 7 yuan, and the cheaper ones are more than 6 yuan. Alibaba Cloud can generally buy 20% off in China, even if it is cheap, but few people can buy 65% off to 30% off. In fact, it is normal for the bandwidth cost per megabyte to be six or seven yuan, and it is the same for large companies like Station B. There is also an issue of storage costs for individuals, and if there is no issue of storage costs, then there is no need for sharing logic. In fact, sharing or everyone works together to dilute the cost of bandwidth servers. In essence, there is such a logic.</p><p><b>2.3 How to define a smart cloud? Where is the room for improvement in the future development of intelligent cloud?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua</b>(Former Mobile Baidu Architect)<b>：</b>In fact, the recent growth of Baidu Intelligent Cloud is very high, and there is part of the reason. In the past, many internal businesses in Baidu bought Ali. Later, the boss wanted everyone to buy their own services, so he also brought a lot of incremental income.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Baidu Cloud still has a lot of room for improvement in its business. I see this from both sides. Should we give some space or give each business independent development, otherwise it will also be a problem to be run by Baidu Cloud. Of course, if Baidu Cloud is given this income, Baidu Cloud can have a better valuation, a better cake when listed, and it can be better empowered when taken back from the secondary market, and the boss can earn more, which is normal.</p><p><b>Shizhong</b>(Light Black Technology)<b>：</b>The entry point of Baidu Intelligent Cloud was chosen when there was not too much space left for him. And this is also based on its own advantage, that is, AI.</p><p>Many times, I don't know if you still remember his entry point. When Baidu first launched ABC, it actually gave an example. Using AI to help Shougang do the quality inspection of steel plates is actually a very heavy thing. I won't sell you resources like the website. When you go online, I can make the same money as collecting rent. It needs strong service and strong adaptability. The quality inspection system of steel plants itself is very complicated, and it needs a lot of adaptation and adjustment, so this money is a very hard money to put it bluntly. Including some wind power cooperation later, predicting which units will have problems, including intelligent customer service.</p><p>Frankly speaking, there are many categories of industry itself, so what it does is decentralized. But the advantage is that once there is a benchmark in the industry, in fact, this benchmarking effect is very strong. It's not that easy to make money, but I think this track is the broadest, so I can only say that. But to do it well, it actually requires a lot of effort. Could this matter be done as imagined? Still remains to be seen, in short, there is imagination.</p><p><b>Pan Luan:</b>Someone asked, many people do AI, and there has been no exit visible to the naked eye. They gritted their teeth, found someone, pulled a team of smart speakers, and found the exit at once. I think Baidu has always been practicing dragon slaying in terms of technology, and has always wanted to find a suitable scene. Make smart speakers, like Hangzhou Ruoqi, and there is another company that makes smart speakers. I see their latest industrial-grade solutions, and they are now using Baidu's cloud service to make their solutions. These teams who made speakers before began to borrow Baidu's cloud service.</p><p><b>Brother Qiushi</b>(Smart Speaker PM)<b>：</b>There will be this process. Common these cloud services, or common NLP services, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">iFlytek</a>Alibaba Cloud all provide it, depending on whose sales are diligent. In fact, the place where Baidu has invested a lot in this area is that it has expanded in this area, and some ISVs have profit-sharing, plus the policy of interest incentives. Including Alibaba Cloud, I feel the same. In essence, I think it is still in a stage of selling the number of users of pre-sale concept shops. There are various demands, some of which are to improve efficiency, some of which are done by others and you can't do it, and some places can get more government subsidies by doing such things. Therefore, the ability to push coverage still has a great impact. This kind of sales-oriented work actually accounts for a relatively large proportion in the whole, which is not particularly the same as the logic of the whole Internet. In my own feeling, the vertical field is different from the consumer Internet. The cognition of the interests of all parties in the industrial Internet, the upgraded module, this kind of knowledge is very important. This kind of knowledge reserve is not necessarily willing to be done by a large company, and many of them are dirty work, and the investment in this reserve, accumulation and sorting is very large in every field. The friends of light black technology have a good chat, and they are still very particular in choosing fields.</p><p><b>3. Autonomous driving & car building</b></p><p><b>3.1 Is Baidu's car building fast or slow?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua</b>(Former Mobile Baidu Architect)<b>：</b>Now the chairman of Baidu's car is my most trusted big brother in Cover. I think this matter should have a very good result, so everyone still has some small expectations for Baidu's car. Especially in the matter of pulling the stock price, we should have a small expectation. There are generally two types of companies. In the stock market, one is to do the job and the other is to be solid. If you finally make the game, then you are a very good company, which is the logic. So don't worry too much about the short term. Many people spit that this CEO is unreliable, and neither is that. It doesn't matter, the market has enough time, and the Internet generally incubates a new business. Whether it is incubated from a big platform within the system or from outside, this cycle takes about two years. In two years, as long as he takes the key steps right, this is not a big problem.</p><p><b>3.2 What are the different capabilities of Baidu's autonomous driving and Tesla and Didi?</b></p><p><b>Shizhong</b>(Light Black Technology)<b>：</b>In fact, there are two evolutionary routes of autonomous driving, all represented by Internet manufacturers are similar. They take the route of pure autonomous driving, starting with L4, and starting with no one. They can limit the scene first, and unmanned driving with limited scenes is their starting point. But like Tesla, from the beginning, its starting point is L2 or L3, which is assisted driving. These are two different routes. But in the end, they all want to go to L5. L5 means unmanned driving without limiting scenes, that is, any scene and any road condition can be reached. But now no one knows when this matter will be achieved. As far as the eye can see now, what we can see is L4. L4 is everyone's goal, but L4 is also heading towards it. Two routes, one is the Tesla route and the other is the Baidu route, can be understood so simply.</p><p>The difference was actually relatively simple. Just like cultivation, there were different methods. There was the Sword Sect and the Qi Sect. That is, the butt determines the head. Tesla has a car. First of all, it must sell it. It will not take driving as its own responsibility, but selling the car as its own responsibility. Because no one can do L5-level autonomous driving now, but they can sell cars first. Hone my self-driving skills with lower-level assisted driving, and maybe one day I can become pure self-driving. But Baidu didn't have a car when it started. When it started without a car, in fact, the final route was not to sell cars, but to sell services. That is to say, its ultimate situation may be like Didi, which is to operate a service system. You don't have to own a car. He just needs to buy services, and I have all the underlying technologies covered. Therefore, there is no need to have a stage at all where users drive themselves, in the form of a service like Robotaxi.</p><p><b>Pan Luan:</b>Baidu's car making now should be what everyone pays most attention to Baidu in this round, that is, a new Baidu. The mobile ecology we see at present, and what we see ahead is cloud-related things. The story that can be realized should be the car, which is also divided into several lines, such as providing services with these car manufacturers and helping the government build the Internet of Things system. Just like now, many of Baidu's intelligent clouds should be tied to the government's big transportation system. Of course, there is another piece of taxi driving service in the future. But when discussing Baidu Map earlier, consumers actually don't care about whether your technology is good or not. What they care about is actually how to send me there. At that time, they should consider whether the vehicle density is enough.</p><p>You can think of it as a service provider for car factories. Does everyone think this is my core interest? It was rumored before that Baidu wanted to vote<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Be sure to use<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>If you don't have the ideal, you choose to build your own system. I think at present, powerful car manufacturers may choose systems that they can control more strongly, invest in or acquire autonomous driving systems<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>But they won't hand over the whole autonomous driving scheme to Baidu. They may purchase certain specific services of Baidu, such as high-precision maps.</p><p><b>3.3 Is there really an opportunity for the big Android system envisioned by Baidu in the automobile industry? Can Apollo be the Android of the automotive industry?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f13dcf2d14ce5aec837d5bddc0197d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Mr. Chen</b>(Baidu Autonomous Driving Business)<b>：</b>In the intelligent transformation of the automobile industry, Baidu Apollo hopes to use more deterministic technologies and solutions to accelerate the boarding of intelligent technology for OEM customers in a limited time window, so as to prevent everyone from rebuilding wheels.</p><p>First of all, from the perspective of R&D investment cost of enterprises, if we consider developing a multi-model platform that supports intelligent driving and includes E/E architecture, the investment cost is about 10-20 billion; The investment in technical research and development of autonomous driving software is also above tens of billions, and it is necessary to sell 100-200W units cumulatively to realize cost amortization.</p><p>Secondly, in addition to the high cost investment, the time cost of autonomous driving software development is also huge, and it needs to go through the process of capacity building, forming effective R&D capabilities and then producing output. It usually takes at least 6 years for enterprises in the industry to independently develop autonomous driving software. Most importantly, R&D costs do not guarantee available technical achievements, including test license plates, maps, V2X road test resources, intelligent cloud, etc., which will affect the level and landing time of autonomous driving technology.</p><p>Apollo hopes to use its eight years of technology accumulation and open cooperation to help car companies build competitive smart cars and promote the development of the whole industry.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the story of a new Baidu?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the story of a new Baidu?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084516151\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1c24ff5bb34d338f5ba94644774bba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">乱翻书 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 22:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>When I returned to the listing site in Hong Kong, I met Zhang Peng, the founder of Geek Park, who has followed Baidu for many years, and asked him what he thought. Zhang Peng said, \"This is the second embodiment of Baidu's value creation through technology. It can be understood that Baidu has completed a listing in the second technical curve of AI besides Internet search technology.\"</p><p>That night, Pan Luan made a live broadcast with several friends, talking about Baidu's secondary listing and AI stories, about mobile ecology, cloud business and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving, talk about the rhythm and path of business development.</p><p>Questions include:</p><p>How does Baidu search cope with short video + live expression and consumption mode?</p><p>Where are Baidu's opportunities in cloud computing?</p><p>Which is the most important realization business of Baidu's intelligent driving sector in the future?</p><p>Baidu's self-driving and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What are the different capabilities of Didi?</p><p>……</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0311a26d3913800cbeae05cf8b3f0df8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the end of April, I flipped books randomly and participated in the Vientiane Conference of Baidu Mobile Ecology. Baidu's latest mobile ecological strategy appears in the form of X + Y strategic layout, that is, \"horizontally expanding the scale of users and vertically cultivating the vertical categories of the industry\". At the meeting, nine support plans were released for founders and partners. Good-looking videos should help settled creators realize their cash, Baidu Health should support doctors, MCN institutions, public hospitals and merchants, and Baidu e-commerce should also support brands, merchants and anchors.</p><p>As an \"X\" platform, Baidu APP has three strategies: content video, search personalization,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information Services</a>The latter \"two modernizations\" also directly point to ecological supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a74a662cb78533cd7f518703cafe83\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the later interview session, I flipped through the book and asked several business leaders questions:</p><p>Nowadays, the content quality in good-looking videos is uneven. How to enhance the real sense of content?</p><p>Many of the second clips are fake vocals. How to enhance the authenticity of the content?</p><p>Baidu's X + Y strategic layout, how many kinds of Y are there? What are you going to do?</p><p>What could the next Y be?</p><p>……</p><p>This article is a shorthand of two events to answer a question:</p><p>What is the story of a new Baidu?</p><p><b>Mobile ecology</b></p><p><b>1.1 Is the good-looking frame video a basic information structure similar to the barrage of Station B? Everyone taggable or specific creator? What kind of thinking is the whole?</b></p><p><b>Song Jian</b>(General Manager of Baidu Short Video Ecological Platform)<b>：</b>The structure of frame video is a video that hopes to be a standard of knowledge, from product innovation to real pan-knowledge. Short videos have been entertainment in recent years, and their products are more suitable for entertainment. Compared with barrage, frame videos are more objective and rational, and they are knowledge supplementary information content, so they don't need so many emotions. We want to face a larger user group, so we are thinking about how to define other videos around our videos, which is our starting point.</p><p>We're definitely priority creators to do it, but UGC we're also trying. Now our video information structure, such as medical and health videos, says that this is diabetes. If the frame happens to be in the symptoms of diabetes, he doesn't know this thing particularly clearly by only watching one video. If this point is very well supplemented to the video information, it will be very good. Whether the creator can do this or not, and whether UGC can do this depends on a set of strategies. Baidu will also provide many tools to help do this information.</p><p>The law of information evolution is from low information to high information. Whether it is text recognition or from long video to short video, the information is getting higher and higher. However, this \"high\" is now too high in the network and will increasingly catch the eye through emotions. The information density must go to a higher place, and whether it must go to the extreme emotional stimulation is a question we are thinking about. We want to supplement the information density through frame video, break it up, and increase the information density, but it is not all emotions and some knowledge. On the one hand, cater to the trend, and on the other hand, go to the degree of more standardized video.</p><p><b>1.2 Nowadays, the quality of some content in good-looking videos is uneven. For example, some of the second creation clips are AI synthesized vocals. How do you think of this and how to enhance the real sense of content?</b></p><p><b>Song Jian</b>(General Manager of Baidu Short Video Ecological Platform<b>）：</b>Let me briefly introduce two points, how to improve this problem.</p><p>One is that you should have a better community atmosphere. From the beginning, many products are more scientific when choosing seed authors, that is, it is easy to form a community atmosphere slowly, but this can't be turned back.</p><p>The second is to make more strategies for the author or UGC, so whether you are doing Duka or frame video, new tools should appear to have new things, so as to achieve differentiated things. The second is what we do on our own initiative. Otherwise, it is impossible to make great changes in the ecology without the advantage of volume, so consider it from the perspective of tools (product innovation).</p><p><b>1.3 If you want to attract more users or expert teams to choose Baidu platform, what are the unique advantages of Baidu Health?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e7a2b4434acc3103770af068b02bf6\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Yang Minglu</b>(General Manager of Baidu Health): The first mass foundation. Who is the first thing that comes to mind when you encounter such a situation? Baidu has this mind, which is mainly reflected in the volume of users. We have a very important mass base.</p><p>The second is technical strength. Baidu's technology is very competitive. Based on big data, it makes accurate crowd portraits and AI empowerment. I believe that soon, you will be able to see some very obvious changes, especially in accurate doctor-patient matching. Recently, many patents have been accumulated. This is a powerful technical capability.</p><p>The third is the strong doctor operation capability based on the user base. Why do doctors come to the platform? The big reason is that there are users, but will he stick, because he has to operate many scenes. Baidu Health actually provides doctors with a full-scene platform, including detailed doctors' personal encyclopedia business cards, suggestions on what videos to do in Baijiahao, online consultation, live broadcast, etc. Baidu is a one-stop all-round online practice venue. Therefore, for doctors, it is very important to form a link between these things in one place, so the ability to operate and full-link services are very important points for us to attract more cooperative institutions and doctor groups. The most important thing is to grasp C and B. This is a very important sword for us to do business with Baidu Health today.</p><p><b>1.4 What are the manifestations of the servicing of Baidu's mobile ecology that we can perceive?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua</b>(Former Mobile Baidu Architect)<b>：</b>Among Baidu's more than 30 million daily services, there is also a network. Let's talk about four networks: information network, e-commerce network, industrial network and social network. Baidu is also going deep in the industry network. They love purchasing by themselves, and their income has already risen. It has a lot of room for independent listing, and its income is more than double digits a year. This unit is 100 million. Therefore, I think if Baidu is really willing to give talents more room for growth and release more equity for them to take the lead independently, I think Baidu has a lot to do.</p><p>Love purchasing, B to B this ecology, before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Billions of revenue, at least 3.5 billion revenue is brought by Baidu's traffic. Previously, Baidu only paid 5.6 billion advertising fees in history. Later, Baidu felt that I might as well do this service myself. In fact, this logic is right. B2B Alibaba also provides an intermediate service logic. This logic is very suitable for Baidu, so Baidu did it by itself. Now Baidu is doing well by itself, which has also brought more than double-digit growth and over 100 million income.</p><p><b>1.5 Is it too late for Baidu to make efforts in e-commerce now? How does Baidu plan to make efforts and differentiate?</b></p><p><b>Ping Xiaoli</b>(Vice President of Baidu, General Manager of Baidu APP)<b>：</b>First of all, let me answer why we cut into e-commerce. I think there are several changes in business trends that we have observed here.</p><p>First, the infrastructure of the Internet is becoming more and more mature. From the payment process, it is no longer exclusive to e-commerce. Second, the supply side of e-commerce platforms is constantly enriched, which should be said to be greatly enriched. Now the supply chain is actually completely more open and open, and it is also very open to all platforms. Third, in terms of users' buying habits, today's purchase, in fact, many consumption decisions are motivated and rational, and the scene is motivated. Users may have shopping needs anytime and anywhere. And this kind of shopping demand, with the improvement of Internet infrastructure and the great enrichment of supply side, makes it possible to buy at any time on all occasions.</p><p>Secondly, we think it is not too late for Baidu to cut into e-commerce, because we have these three basic conditions. Not only Baidu, but I think many scenarios may become a possible purchase channel. That is to say, in fact, the phenomenon that China's Internet e-commerce is greatly gathered at the top will gradually change to some extent.</p><p>Furthermore, there are advantages compared with other platforms. When we do such things, we not only see whether the industry has advantages, but also look at them in combination with our own products. In fact, every day, a large number of users search for product category words and brand words, such as which washing machine brand is good. There are many such words. Why do we see so much of this demand? It has not died for so many years, because we see what the user wants to check in the whole process. In fact, he wants to better understand this brand, this product, and how it is, including some of its main parameters, official evaluation and user experience. That is, he will go to Baidu to search before the whole consumption decision pre-link. Let me give you a very simple example. It used to be that you couldn't buy drugs online, but now you can. It turns out that everyone can buy medicine. We see that many users actually want to search in Baidu, such as searching for a certain product for a long time. Why can't he place an order directly? This search is more like three C products and furniture products, and some decision-making users with higher unit prices will be more willing to search, so we think we have certain characteristics here.</p><p>Therefore, for example, when we search for e-commerce, we focus on building two scenarios, one is search scenario and search for e-commerce. In fact, this is also based, which is the basis just mentioned. The second is that from the point of view of the key direction, the key point may not be the same as other platforms, that is, we are all doing some homogeneous competition positively, and we do more good in our venues. Our purpose is not to compare with others about how big the scene is. Today's e-commerce is a service-oriented strategy, and Baidu has no battlefield. It is not this logic to be e-commerce. The whole logic means that from \"content to service\", it is a very important part of the service-oriented strategy, and purchasing goods is a part of services. The purpose of our e-commerce is more about how to better meet the needs of users in this place, dig out their needs, and do a good job in their real shopping needs. When we do it in this scene, we are more biased towards the relatively rational role of users, so that they can choose better products, brands and explosives. These things are our main work. When we do it, we will aggregate more product contents, go to service purchase channels, and give more information to users, so that they can make a comprehensive decision whether they see the price or protect their rights and interests.</p><p>Another scene is \"live broadcast\". Live e-commerce is also a product form that we see growing very fast now, because Baidu actually has information flow in addition to search, recommendation and information flow, and the information flow has also changed greatly from graphics and texts to live broadcast. It is more typical, and it is more suitable for the explosive precipitation of various activities. If live broadcast and e-commerce are precipitated together, it is very smooth. For example, some merchants directly settle their brand stores in Baidu, search for one-click direct access, they can put their most complete stores here, and then they can do some activities with some goods, cooperate with Baidu's stores, and broadcast two more live broadcasts. Let users have some node-based cognition, such as the live broadcast with wine some time ago. In fact, after our live broadcast on the same day, the gmv on the same day was very high. After that, many people searched there and then went back to that store to buy. So, it is a scenario that can be completely undertaken together, so this is the opportunity we see, and it is also some of our ideas that we have been groping and validating in the past period of time.</p><p><b>1.6 Baidu's X + Y strategic layout, how many kinds of Y are there? What are you going to do? What could the next Y be?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1162a7bad64ba3e26a0d37fbb04772e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ping Xiaoli</b>(Vice President of Baidu, General Manager of Baidu APP)<b>：</b>There are about three categories of Y, but good-looking is different from healthy. Good-looking is X, and health is Y. However, these three categories are basically summarized into two categories, which are called Y1, Y2 and Y3 internally. Y1 and Y2 are strongly related to X. Y1 and Y2 take advantage of X platform to give full play to their industrial advantages, and the space market is relatively large. Here, we choose the key and deep platform, and the first choice is the strategy of extending the content of X platform to service. Second, on the track of Y, being able to have a certain market share and some positions of its own is Y1+ Y2. The internal difference between Y1 and Y2 is the difference of size, health is Y2, and the small Y1 does not need to be explained here. Y3 has no strong connection with X. For example, network disk and games are placed in Y3, which are separate industries.</p><p>The vertical class of Y is how to do better and more prosperous, including how to do poorly. In fact, we have a set of shutdown and merging mechanisms in the whole incubation, just to see the progress. Of course, if we can't do it, we will definitely shut down some of them decisively. There are more than ten or twenty vertical classes we do internally, and some teams only have a few people to explore first. The general mechanism is like this.</p><p>How to be better and more prosperous? I think it is very important that every vertical class should find someone who knows this industry. In Baidu, we are on the platform ourselves. I understand the ability of the platform very well, but each vertical class has different playing styles. However, the vertical class can do it by itself. If you don't rely on Baidu's advantages, you may not be able to do it according to the entrepreneurial method. Because it will compete with others in homogeneity, you need a combination of two. Just like when I had a discussion with my colleagues in the previous paragraph, I told him that in fact, you don't know how big a gold mine is in search. Outside, everyone thinks that the traffic should be quite good and the value is quite high. This is still a very open cognition.</p><p>Search can gain insight into consumer demand. For example, it is also a trend for trendy products now, and many of these things can be fed back in time in the minds of users. How to better undertake the needs of this kind of user? If you only search for products, it turns out to literally match the corresponding answers, but the industry is not. You have to see what these questions mean to users, what they need, and then combine them with the products of the industry you design. How to undertake and connect with him? Here, two teams of X and Y need to collide and design. So we have some cooperation here, and we have some teams here that specialize in combining with them. Why is health doing well? In fact, health was incubated by the whole search team, and later joined some people who knew in these industries.</p><p>Therefore, this is also the experience of past practice. The ability and genes of X platform are actually of great help to this industry in the early stage. However, we need the input of professionals in the industry, so we will adhere to such experience and principles in people's organization and product design. What really reflects is the differentiated competition path, not what others have done. I have to do the same as others. This is not Baidu's only idea to do this, so we have chosen many Ys that are strongly related to X.</p><p>In addition to health, it is possible to start the deep layout of Y in many fields of \"education, medical beauty, and automobile\". The logic of the selected vertical category itself must first conform to the strategic logic of the big Baidu APP, which is the \"content + service\" connection point is relatively clear. First of all, the whole decision-making and logic users need a lot of content is demand, and second, the whole back link is that there are services in it. Third, the needs of users in its industry itself are equivalent to part of a certain link happening on Baidu APP, or we have certain advantages. Therefore, when choosing vertical categories, they will choose according to Baidu's genes. Under the logic of choice, it is decided that the main task of these vertical classes is to strengthen Baidu's overall ability in this respect. At the same time, when comparing with other markets at the same time, I also have to look at other categories in other markets. In this case, it provides both a strong stimulus and a sense of survival.</p><p><b>Intelligent Cloud</b></p><p><b>2.1 Which businesses of Baidu are likely to grow independently in the future?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua (former mobile Baidu architect):</b>At present, Baidu's Top80% traffic accounts for several relatively large categories, such as education, health, games and reading, which are all relatively large categories that Baidu can make in-depth efforts. I think a thin camel is bigger than a horse. Don't listen to the outside who always spit on Baidu. There are more than 200 million daily apps, and there are hundreds of hands all the time. There are several apps with more than 30 million daily apps in Baidu, including maps, network disks, etc., all of which are very good. Of course, the most basic search is how to fight the defensive war well, and at the same time, take advantage of the new opportunities in the market in the next 3 to 5 years, grasp and make the second spring, as well as AI to better serve various scenarios, and drive others, whether it is the automobile industry or service industry, smart industry or education, to make greater upgrades and build some basic facilities. There is also a small platform with large basic facilities within 10 years, all of which are considered considerably. Talents realize the trend of the market. Every year, a large number of talents recruited by schools enter Baidu's system in large quantities for incubation.</p><p>As we all know, Baidu has been searching for so many years, and mobile Baidu has about more than 200 million daily lives. Baidu's most valuable businesses now, such as Baidu Netdisk, have about 31 million to 33 million daily active people and an annual income of about 3.3 billion. As you can see, when Baidu went public, Ali issued a horn again, saying that they would also be Ali's network disk. In fact, everyone has seen Baidu's persistence in the network disk for so many years, and there is a small episode in the middle, when 360 gave up the 360 network disk. This matter is a long-term value investment matter. This business is still the first in the industry at present, and it will definitely be split and listed independently.</p><p>There is a huge space for several core businesses in Baidu in the future. For example, Jing Kun is responsible for Xiaodu speakers, which are growing well now. This business is a better product in the future era of instinctive interactive experience, and there is a lot of room. The essence of speaker business is a product of RTC era. RTC is the logic of Real time clock and the service of real-time connection. One of the biggest opportunities for this service in the future is the RTC era. Valuable business in the RTC era. In fact, Tesla's autonomous driving is essentially an RTC service. There is a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Help you calculate in real time, help you see the road conditions, and help you control the car. In fact, this is the same. Duer OS business is also a product of RTC era. Its interactive experience is the same as that of Clubhouse. Every morning, I get up and ask Xiaodu Xiaodu how the weather is. Small degrees, small degrees, open the curtains, which in itself is the future of interactive experience. In this case, Xiaodu's independence is conducive to its growth, and it is also conducive to driving Baidu's share price to continue to rise.</p><p>In addition to Baidu Netdisk and Xiaodu, as we all know, Baidu's health service income has been good for so many years. Personally, I think Baidu Health also has the opportunity to split up, which has a huge value-added space for Baidu's share price. My suggestion is that you can pay attention to these core businesses.</p><p>Here, I would like to mention Baidu Map. I think Baidu Map has done a particularly good job in the past year, and it has been upgraded compared with the previous one. I don't know if you have used Baidu Map to take a taxi. You found that you recently used Didi to take a taxi, and Didi changed a new version. Everyone complained and couldn't find out how to use Didi. But you will find that taking a taxi with Baidu Map is cooler and cheaper than Didi. You can use Baidu Map's taxi, which is indeed easier to use than Didi. My experience these days is the same.</p><p><b>2.2 Where is the technical threshold of cloud disk products?</b></p><p><b>Pan Luan:</b>In fact, the network disk is a very high-tech thing. I can tell you a first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Examples of. In fact, the founding team of Xunlei also went out of Baidu. Co-founder Cheng Hao and CTO Li Jinbo both went out of Baidu. Where is the technical cow of Thunder? It is very similar to the capabilities of the network disk. Thunder wants to crawl, transmit and store. In fact, each of them is a very hard technology. If you have an impression, those who made network disks in the early years were not as powerful as Baidu.</p><p>In fact, Baidu was definitely the first to do distributed computing in China. Baidu's internal operation and management servers should be very strong, because they have to carry the computing power of peaks and valleys. Moreover, 10 years ago, Baidu should have the largest number of servers in China, involving machine management, resource scheduling and the whole network management. In fact, these three core technologies are relatively advanced. At first, Alibaba Cloud's architecture system is exactly the same as Baidu's service system.</p><p><b>Li Tianhua (former mobile Baidu architect):</b>In the middle, we should first talk about the value of cloud disk products and services, that is, the server bandwidth cost that everyone dilutes together. The bandwidth cost of normal Internet companies per megabit CDN is more than 7 yuan, and the cheaper ones are more than 6 yuan. Alibaba Cloud can generally buy 20% off in China, even if it is cheap, but few people can buy 65% off to 30% off. In fact, it is normal for the bandwidth cost per megabyte to be six or seven yuan, and it is the same for large companies like Station B. There is also an issue of storage costs for individuals, and if there is no issue of storage costs, then there is no need for sharing logic. In fact, sharing or everyone works together to dilute the cost of bandwidth servers. In essence, there is such a logic.</p><p><b>2.3 How to define a smart cloud? Where is the room for improvement in the future development of intelligent cloud?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua</b>(Former Mobile Baidu Architect)<b>：</b>In fact, the recent growth of Baidu Intelligent Cloud is very high, and there is part of the reason. In the past, many internal businesses in Baidu bought Ali. Later, the boss wanted everyone to buy their own services, so he also brought a lot of incremental income.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Baidu Cloud still has a lot of room for improvement in its business. I see this from both sides. Should we give some space or give each business independent development, otherwise it will also be a problem to be run by Baidu Cloud. Of course, if Baidu Cloud is given this income, Baidu Cloud can have a better valuation, a better cake when listed, and it can be better empowered when taken back from the secondary market, and the boss can earn more, which is normal.</p><p><b>Shizhong</b>(Light Black Technology)<b>：</b>The entry point of Baidu Intelligent Cloud was chosen when there was not too much space left for him. And this is also based on its own advantage, that is, AI.</p><p>Many times, I don't know if you still remember his entry point. When Baidu first launched ABC, it actually gave an example. Using AI to help Shougang do the quality inspection of steel plates is actually a very heavy thing. I won't sell you resources like the website. When you go online, I can make the same money as collecting rent. It needs strong service and strong adaptability. The quality inspection system of steel plants itself is very complicated, and it needs a lot of adaptation and adjustment, so this money is a very hard money to put it bluntly. Including some wind power cooperation later, predicting which units will have problems, including intelligent customer service.</p><p>Frankly speaking, there are many categories of industry itself, so what it does is decentralized. But the advantage is that once there is a benchmark in the industry, in fact, this benchmarking effect is very strong. It's not that easy to make money, but I think this track is the broadest, so I can only say that. But to do it well, it actually requires a lot of effort. Could this matter be done as imagined? Still remains to be seen, in short, there is imagination.</p><p><b>Pan Luan:</b>Someone asked, many people do AI, and there has been no exit visible to the naked eye. They gritted their teeth, found someone, pulled a team of smart speakers, and found the exit at once. I think Baidu has always been practicing dragon slaying in terms of technology, and has always wanted to find a suitable scene. Make smart speakers, like Hangzhou Ruoqi, and there is another company that makes smart speakers. I see their latest industrial-grade solutions, and they are now using Baidu's cloud service to make their solutions. These teams who made speakers before began to borrow Baidu's cloud service.</p><p><b>Brother Qiushi</b>(Smart Speaker PM)<b>：</b>There will be this process. Common these cloud services, or common NLP services, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">iFlytek</a>Alibaba Cloud all provide it, depending on whose sales are diligent. In fact, the place where Baidu has invested a lot in this area is that it has expanded in this area, and some ISVs have profit-sharing, plus the policy of interest incentives. Including Alibaba Cloud, I feel the same. In essence, I think it is still in a stage of selling the number of users of pre-sale concept shops. There are various demands, some of which are to improve efficiency, some of which are done by others and you can't do it, and some places can get more government subsidies by doing such things. Therefore, the ability to push coverage still has a great impact. This kind of sales-oriented work actually accounts for a relatively large proportion in the whole, which is not particularly the same as the logic of the whole Internet. In my own feeling, the vertical field is different from the consumer Internet. The cognition of the interests of all parties in the industrial Internet, the upgraded module, this kind of knowledge is very important. This kind of knowledge reserve is not necessarily willing to be done by a large company, and many of them are dirty work, and the investment in this reserve, accumulation and sorting is very large in every field. The friends of light black technology have a good chat, and they are still very particular in choosing fields.</p><p><b>3. Autonomous driving & car building</b></p><p><b>3.1 Is Baidu's car building fast or slow?</b></p><p><b>Li Tianhua</b>(Former Mobile Baidu Architect)<b>：</b>Now the chairman of Baidu's car is my most trusted big brother in Cover. I think this matter should have a very good result, so everyone still has some small expectations for Baidu's car. Especially in the matter of pulling the stock price, we should have a small expectation. There are generally two types of companies. In the stock market, one is to do the job and the other is to be solid. If you finally make the game, then you are a very good company, which is the logic. So don't worry too much about the short term. Many people spit that this CEO is unreliable, and neither is that. It doesn't matter, the market has enough time, and the Internet generally incubates a new business. Whether it is incubated from a big platform within the system or from outside, this cycle takes about two years. In two years, as long as he takes the key steps right, this is not a big problem.</p><p><b>3.2 What are the different capabilities of Baidu's autonomous driving and Tesla and Didi?</b></p><p><b>Shizhong</b>(Light Black Technology)<b>：</b>In fact, there are two evolutionary routes of autonomous driving, all represented by Internet manufacturers are similar. They take the route of pure autonomous driving, starting with L4, and starting with no one. They can limit the scene first, and unmanned driving with limited scenes is their starting point. But like Tesla, from the beginning, its starting point is L2 or L3, which is assisted driving. These are two different routes. But in the end, they all want to go to L5. L5 means unmanned driving without limiting scenes, that is, any scene and any road condition can be reached. But now no one knows when this matter will be achieved. As far as the eye can see now, what we can see is L4. L4 is everyone's goal, but L4 is also heading towards it. Two routes, one is the Tesla route and the other is the Baidu route, can be understood so simply.</p><p>The difference was actually relatively simple. Just like cultivation, there were different methods. There was the Sword Sect and the Qi Sect. That is, the butt determines the head. Tesla has a car. First of all, it must sell it. It will not take driving as its own responsibility, but selling the car as its own responsibility. Because no one can do L5-level autonomous driving now, but they can sell cars first. Hone my self-driving skills with lower-level assisted driving, and maybe one day I can become pure self-driving. But Baidu didn't have a car when it started. When it started without a car, in fact, the final route was not to sell cars, but to sell services. That is to say, its ultimate situation may be like Didi, which is to operate a service system. You don't have to own a car. He just needs to buy services, and I have all the underlying technologies covered. Therefore, there is no need to have a stage at all where users drive themselves, in the form of a service like Robotaxi.</p><p><b>Pan Luan:</b>Baidu's car making now should be what everyone pays most attention to Baidu in this round, that is, a new Baidu. The mobile ecology we see at present, and what we see ahead is cloud-related things. The story that can be realized should be the car, which is also divided into several lines, such as providing services with these car manufacturers and helping the government build the Internet of Things system. Just like now, many of Baidu's intelligent clouds should be tied to the government's big transportation system. Of course, there is another piece of taxi driving service in the future. But when discussing Baidu Map earlier, consumers actually don't care about whether your technology is good or not. What they care about is actually how to send me there. At that time, they should consider whether the vehicle density is enough.</p><p>You can think of it as a service provider for car factories. Does everyone think this is my core interest? It was rumored before that Baidu wanted to vote<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Be sure to use<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>If you don't have the ideal, you choose to build your own system. I think at present, powerful car manufacturers may choose systems that they can control more strongly, invest in or acquire autonomous driving systems<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>But they won't hand over the whole autonomous driving scheme to Baidu. They may purchase certain specific services of Baidu, such as high-precision maps.</p><p><b>3.3 Is there really an opportunity for the big Android system envisioned by Baidu in the automobile industry? Can Apollo be the Android of the automotive industry?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f13dcf2d14ce5aec837d5bddc0197d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Mr. Chen</b>(Baidu Autonomous Driving Business)<b>：</b>In the intelligent transformation of the automobile industry, Baidu Apollo hopes to use more deterministic technologies and solutions to accelerate the boarding of intelligent technology for OEM customers in a limited time window, so as to prevent everyone from rebuilding wheels.</p><p>First of all, from the perspective of R&D investment cost of enterprises, if we consider developing a multi-model platform that supports intelligent driving and includes E/E architecture, the investment cost is about 10-20 billion; The investment in technical research and development of autonomous driving software is also above tens of billions, and it is necessary to sell 100-200W units cumulatively to realize cost amortization.</p><p>Secondly, in addition to the high cost investment, the time cost of autonomous driving software development is also huge, and it needs to go through the process of capacity building, forming effective R&D capabilities and then producing output. It usually takes at least 6 years for enterprises in the industry to independently develop autonomous driving software. Most importantly, R&D costs do not guarantee available technical achievements, including test license plates, maps, V2X road test resources, intelligent cloud, etc., which will affect the level and landing time of autonomous driving technology.</p><p>Apollo hopes to use its eight years of technology accumulation and open cooperation to help car companies build competitive smart cars and promote the development of the whole industry.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3c6c3c55603d00a14ee3389850b7f","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","09888":"百度集团-SW","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184519409","content_text":"百度回港上市现场，遇到跟踪百度多年的极客公园的创始人张鹏，问他怎么看。张鹏说：“这是百度一直通过技术创造价值的第二次体现，可以理解为百度在互联网搜索技术之外，AI第二技术曲线完成了一次上市。”\n当晚，潘乱与几位朋友一起做了场直播，聊聊百度二次上市和AI故事，关于移动生态、云业务和智能驾驶，聊业务发展的节奏和路径。\n问题包括：\n短视频＋直播化表达和消费模式下，百度搜索如何应对？\n百度在云计算上的机会在哪里？\n百度智能驾驶板块未来最主要的变现业务是哪一块？\n百度的自动驾驶和特斯拉、滴滴的不同能力项是什么？\n……\n\n4月底，乱翻书又参加百度移动生态的万象大会。百度最新的移动生态战略在以X+Y战略布局的形式出现，即“横向开拓用户规模，纵向深耕行业垂类”。会上针对创始者和合作伙伴发布了九大扶持计划，好看视频要帮助入驻创作者变现，百度健康要扶持医生、MCN机构、公立医院和商家，百度电商也要扶持品牌、商家和主播。\n作为“X”平台，百度APP有三个战略，内容视频化、搜索人格化、信息服务化，后面“两化”也都是直接指向生态供给的。\n\n在后来的采访环节，乱翻书向几位业务负责人发问：\n现在好看视频里内容质量参差不齐，怎么去提升内容的真人感？\n二创剪辑很多都是假的人声，怎么增强内容的真实性？\n百度的X+Y战略布局，有几种Y？打算怎么做？\n下一个Y可能是什么？\n……\n本文是两次活动的速记整理，意在回答一个问题：\n一个新的百度的故事是什么？\n一、移动生态\n1.1 好看的帧视频是类似B站弹幕那样的基础信息结构？所有人都可标记还是特定创作者？整体是什么样的思考？\n宋健（百度短视频生态平台总经理）：帧视频这个结构是希望能够做成知识的标准，从产品创新变成真正泛知识的一个视频。短视频这几年都走娱乐化，它们的产品都是更适合娱乐，帧视频相对弹幕是围绕更加客观更加理性，是知识补充信息含量，不需要那么多情绪。我们要面向更大的用户群体，所以我们在思考怎么围绕我们的视频来界定其他的视频，这是我们的出发点。\n我们肯定是优先创作者来去做，但UGC我们也在尝试。现在我们的视频信息结构，比如说医疗健康的视频，说这个是糖尿病，如果帧正好在糖尿病的症状，只看一个视频他对这个东西了解的不是特别清晰，如果对这个点非常好的补充到视频的信息上，就会非常好。这里面创造者能不能做这个事情，UGC能不能做这个要靠一套的战略，百度也会提供很多工具，帮助做这些信息。\n信息演化的规律就是从低信息到高信息，无论是文字识别还是从长视频到短视频，信息越来越高。但是，这个“高”现在在网络中太高会越来越通过情绪来抓眼球。信息密度一定往高处走，是不是一定往极致的情绪这种刺激上走，这个是我们在思考的一个问题。我们想通过帧视频补充信息密，掰一掰，把信息密度增加，但不全是情绪，补充一些知识的。一方面迎合趋势，一方面往视频更加规范的程度上走。\n1.2 现在好看视频里有的内容质量参差不齐，比如二创剪辑有一些是AI合成人声，怎么看这个事情，怎么去提升内容的真人感？\n宋健（百度短视频生态平台总经理）：我简单介绍两个点，怎么去改善这个问题。\n一个是说你要有比较好的社区氛围，很多产品从一开始它在选种子作者的时候是比较科学的，就是慢慢的很容易会形成一个社区氛围以后，但是这个没法再往回倒腾。\n第二个就是说要给作者或者是UGC做更多的攻略，所以在做度咔也好，在做帧视频也好，要有新的工具出现才能有新的东西，这样才能达到差异化的东西。第二个是我们主动做的，要不然在体量没有优势的情况下，比如说把生态进行很大的变化是不可以的，所以从工具角度考虑（进行产品创新）。\n1.3  想要吸引更多的用户或者专家团队来选择百度平台，百度健康独特的优势是什么？\n\n杨明璐（百度健康总经理）：第一群众基础。就是遇到这种情况第一时间想到的是谁？百度这个心智是有的，主要表现在用户体量，我们有很重要的群众基础。\n第二是技术实力。百度技术竞争很强，基于大数据做精准人群画像，进行AI赋能，相信不久，大家就能看到非常明显的一些变化，特别是在精准医患匹配上面，近期也积累了不少专利，这个就是强大的技术能力。\n第三就是基于用户基础的强大医生运营能力。医生为什么来平台？很大原因是有用户，但是他会不会黏得住，因为他要运营非常多的场景。百度健康给医生提供的其实是一个全场景的平台，包括细致到医生个人百科名片，开设百家号里面做什么视频的建议，在线咨询问诊，直播等，百度是一站式的全方位的在线执业场地。所以对医生来说，把这些东西在一个地方形成链路是很重要的，所以运营的能力和全链路服务是我们吸引更多合作机构和医生群体非常重要的一点，最重要的还是抓C和B，这个是我们今天百度健康做业务非常重要的利剑。\n1.4 百度移动生态的服务化有哪些可被我们感知的体现？\n李天华（前手机百度架构师）：百度在3千万以上的日活服务里面，其中还有一张网，我们讲四张网：信息网、电商网、产业网、社交网。产业网里面百度也在深入，他们自己做的爱采购，收入也已经起来了，它拆出来独立上市空间也很大，一年也是两位数以上的收入，这个单位是亿。所以我觉得百度如果真的愿意给人才更多的成长空间，愿意给他们释放更多的股权让他们独立挑头，我觉得百度有很多可以做的事情。\n爱采购，B to B这个生态，以前阿里巴巴大几十亿的收入，至少有35亿的收入是在百度获取流量带来的，之前历史上只给百度交过五六亿的广告费。后来百度觉得我还不如自己做好这个服务，其实这个逻辑是对的。B2B阿里巴巴提供的也是一个中间的服务逻辑，这个逻辑很适合百度，百度就自己做了，现在百度自己做得很好，这方面也带来了两位数以上的增长，过亿的收入。\n1.5 百度现在发力电商是不是为时已晚，百度打算怎么发力以及如何差异化？\n平晓黎（百度副总裁，百度APP总经理）：首先先回答一下为什么切入电商，我觉得这里有几个我们观察到的商业趋势变化。\n第一，互联网的基础设施越来越成熟了，从支付这套流程来讲，已经不是电商的专属了。第二，电商平台商品供给侧在不断丰富，应该说是极大的丰富，现在供应链端其实是完全更open和开放的状态，对所有的平台也都非常open。第三，用户的购买习惯上来讲，今天的购买，其实很多的消费决策有激发的也有比较理性的，场景的激发也好，用户随时随地都可能有购物的需求。而这种购物的需求，随着互联网基础设施的完善和供给端极大的丰富，让在所有场合随时有需求随时购买成为一个可能。\n其次，我们认为百度切入电商为时不晚，因为我们具备这三个基础条件，不光是百度，我觉得很多场景可能都会成为一个可能的购买通道。也就是说实际上原来中国互联网电商极大聚集在最头部的现象，慢慢会有一定的变化。\n再者，其他的平台来比有没有优势，我们做这样的事情不光看到行业有没有优势，还在结合自己的产品在看。“搜索”上其实每天有大量的用户搜索商品品类词、品牌词，比如说搜哪个洗衣机品牌好，这种词非常多，这种需求我们看到为什么会这么多？始终这么多年都没有消亡掉，因为我们看到用户在整个过程中他要查什么，他其实要更好的了解这个品牌也好，这个商品也好，它怎么样，包括它主要的一些参数，官方的评价，用户使用的体验。就是他在整个消费决策前链路之前会去百度搜查。我举一个很简单的例子，原来在线上不能购药，现在可以了。原来大家可以买药这个事，我们看到很多用户实际上在百度要搜，比如搜某个产品搜半天，他为什么不能直接下单。这个搜索更多的像三C类产品、家具类产品，相对单价更高的一些决策用户会更愿意搜索，所以我们觉得在这里我们是有一定特色的。\n所以，比如说我们在搜索电商的时候，着重构建两个场景，一个是搜索场景，搜索电商，其实这个也是有依据的，就是刚才讲到这个依据。第二个就是重点方向上来看，重点会更多的可能不会说跟其他平台一样，就是我们都是正面的做同质化的一些竞争，我们更多做好我们的场地，我们的目的不是和别人比做多大的场景。今天的电商是做服务化战略，百度没有战场，要做电商不是这个逻辑，整个逻辑是说从“内容到服务”，服务化战略里面很重要的一部分，购买商品是服务的一部分。我们做电商的目的，更多的是在这个地方如何把用户的需求满足的更好，把用户需求挖掘出来，把用户真正购物的需求做好。我们在这种场景做的话，更偏向于用户相对理性的角色，让他挑选到更好的产品和品牌、爆款，这些东西都是我们主要的工作。像我们做的时候，我们会聚合更多家的商品内容，到服务购买渠道，把更多的信息给到用户，让他不管看到价格还是保障权益，让他可以综合做一个决策。\n还有一个场景就是“直播”，直播电商也是我们现在看到增长非常快的一个产品形态，因为百度其实除了有搜索有推荐有信息流，信息流从图文现在到直播也起了非常大的变化。是比较典型的，比较适合各种活动爆款沉淀，如果把直播和电商沉淀在一起是非常顺的。比如说一些商家把他品牌店直接入驻在百度，搜索一键直达，可以把自己的最全的店铺放在这儿，然后可以再拿一些商品做一些活动，和百度的店合作，再播两场直播。让用户产生一些节点式的认知，比如说前段时间做的直播带酒，其实我们当天直播完之后，当天gmv非常高，之后还有很多人在那儿搜索，再回到那个店铺购买。所以，它是一个完全可以承接到一起的场景，所以这是我们看到的机会，也是我们在过去一段时间不断摸索和验证了的一些我们的设想。\n1.6 百度的X+Y战略布局，有几种Y？打算怎么做？下一个Y可能是什么？\n\n平晓黎（百度副总裁，百度APP总经理）：大概有三类Y，不过好看和健康不一样，好看是X，健康这个垂类是Y。但是这三类基本总结成两大类，内部叫Y1、Y2、Y3，Y1和Y2和X有强关联的，Y1和Y2借助X平台的优势发挥产业优势，空间市场比较大，在这里选择重点纵深的平台，第一选择X平台内容到服务化延伸的战略。第二，在Y的赛道上，能够拥有一定的市场份额和自己的一些阵地，这是Y1+Y2。Y1、Y2的内部的区别是大小的区别，健康是Y2，小的Y1这里不用特别解释。Y3没有和X有特别多强联系，像网盘和游戏放在Y3，这都是单独的产业。\nY的垂类，就是怎么能做的更好更繁荣，包括做的不好怎么样。其实我们在整个孵化上有一套关停并转的机制，就是来看进展，当然实在做的不行，我们肯定果断的会关掉一些。我们内部做的垂类十几二十个很多，有的团队就几个人先摸索，大概的机制是这样子。\n怎么样更好更繁荣，我觉得很重要的一点就是每个垂类要找懂这个行业的人，在百度，我们自己在平台，我对平台的能力是非常理解的，但是每个垂类打法都有不同。但是垂类自己干就能干成，不依靠百度的优势的话，按照创业的方法也不一定能干成，因为会和别人同质化竞争，所以需要两个结合。就像前段和同事做一个讨论的时候，我给他讲说其实你们不了解搜索有多大的金矿，搜索在外面大家觉得流量应该挺不错的价值挺高的，这个还是很开放的一个认知。\n搜索可以洞察消费需求，比如说现在潮品起来也是一个趋势，很多这些东西在用户心中可以很及时的反馈出来。把这种用户的需求之后怎么承接的更好，如果只做搜索产品，原来是字面匹配相应的答案，但是行业不是，你要看到这些问题对用户意味着什么，他需要什么，再结合你所设计的行业的产品，怎么跟他承接，跟他对接，这里是需要X和Y的两个团队碰撞设计的。所以我们在这里是有一些合作的，我们这里有一些团队和他们专门做结合。健康为什么做的不错？实际上健康就是整个搜索团队孵化出来了，后来加入了这些行业里懂的一些人。\n所以，这也是过去实践出来的经验，X平台的能力、基因，其实在前期对这个行业有很大的帮助。但是，我们又需要行业的专业人输入进来，所以在人的组织搭建上，在产品设计上都会秉承这样的经验和原则。真正体现的是差异化的竞争路径，而不是说别人做了什么，我非得和人家做的一样，这也不是百度做这件事情唯一的思路，所以我们选择了很多Y都是和X有很强的关联的。\n除了健康，接下来可能在“教育、医美、汽车”多个领域上都开始Y的纵深布局，所选的垂类本身的逻辑就得首先符合大的百度APP的战略逻辑，它是“内容+服务”衔接点比较清晰的。首先整个决策和逻辑用户需要大量的内容是需求，第二个整个的后链路是有服务在里面。第三是它行业本身用户的需求相当于一部分某个环节是在百度APP上发生的，或者我们有一定优势。所以在选择垂类的时候，会根据百度的基因去选择。在选择的逻辑之下，就决定了这些垂类肩负的主要任务就是要加强百度整体在这方面的能力。同时放在其他市场同时比的时候，我还要看其他市场其他的品类，在这种情况之下，提供了既有很强的鞭策和生存意识的要求。\n二、智能云\n2.1 百度哪些业务未来有可能独立成长？\n李天华（前手机百度架构师）：现在百度占的Top80%流量里面比较大的几个品类，教育、健康、游戏、阅读，对百度来说都是可以深入发力的几个比较大的品类。我觉得瘦死骆驼比马大，大家不要听外面老是吐槽百度这个不好那个不好，2亿多日活的APP，手百一直在，百度3千万以上的日活以上的APP有好几个，有地图、网盘等等，都是非常不错的。当然最基本的搜索，如何把防守战打好，同时再利用市场未来3到5年新的机遇，把握住，做出来第二春，以及AI更好的服务各个场景，带动其他，不管是汽车产业还是服务产业，还是智慧产业、教育，做更大的升级，做一些基础化设施。还有小度做10年以内基础化设施大的平台，都是考虑得比较周到的。人才实现市场的趋势，每年大量校招生的人才，大批量的进入百度的体系内孵化。\n大家知道，百度做了这么多年的搜索，手机百度大概两个多亿的日活。百度现在最有价值的几个业务，比如百度网盘，大概有3100万到3300万的日活，一年大概33亿的收入。大家也看到了，百度上市的时候阿里又发出号角，说他们也要做阿里的网盘。其实大家看到了百度在网盘里这么多年的坚持，中间还有一个小插曲，当年360放弃了360网盘。这个事情是一个长周期价值投资的事情，这个业务在行业内目前还是属于第一，它绝对会拆分出来独立上市的。\n在百度未来几个核心业务都有巨大的空间，比如现在增长比较好的小度音箱，是由景鲲负责的。这个业务在未来的本能交互体验时代里面是一个比较好的产品，有很大的空间。音箱业务本质是一个RTC时代的产品，RTC是Real time clock的逻辑，实时连接的服务。当下这个服务到未来一个最大的机遇，其中之一就是RTC时代。RTC时代里面有价值的业务，其实特斯拉自动驾驶本质上也是一个RTC的服务，有一个机器人实时帮你去计算，帮你看路况，帮你操控车。其实这也是一样的，小度助手（Duer OS）业务也是一个RTC时代的产品，它跟Clubhouse的交互体验是一样的，每天早晨起来问小度小度，天气怎么样。小度小度，打开窗帘，这本身就是交互体验的未来。在这种情况下，小度独立出去有利于它的成长，也有利于它带动百度的股价继续往上涨。\n除了百度网盘、小度，大家也知道，百度这么多年来健康服务收入一直不错，我个人觉得百度健康也有机会拆分出去，这个对百度的股价都有巨大的增值空间。我的建议是大家可以关注一下这些核心业务。\n这里还要特别提一下百度地图，我认为百度地图最近这一年多做的特别好，比以前做的有升级。不知道大家有没有用过百度地图打车，大家发现最近用滴滴打车，滴滴改了一个新版本，大家都很抱怨，都找不到怎么用滴滴了。但是你会发现用百度地图打车比滴滴爽，还要便宜，大家可以用一下百度地图的打车，确实比滴滴好用，我这几天的体验也是这样的。\n2.2 云盘产品的技术门槛在哪里？\n潘乱：其实网盘是技术很高的事情，我可以先给大家讲一个迅雷的例子。其实迅雷的创始团队也是百度出去的，联合创始人程浩和CTO李金波都是从百度出去的。迅雷这个技术牛在哪里？它跟网盘的能力有些是非常像的，迅雷要做爬虫、传输、存储，其实每一项都是非常硬的技术。如果大家有印象的话，早年那些做网盘的都不如百度给力。\n事实上最早在中国做分布式计算的绝对是百度，百度在内部的运营和管理服务器应该都是很坚挺的，因为要承载波峰波谷的计算能力。而且10年前百度的服务器应该是中国最多的，涉及到机器的管理、资源的调度以及整个网络管理，其实这三项核心技术都是比较领先的。最初阿里云的架构体系跟百度的服务体系都是如出一辙。\n李天华（前手机百度架构师）：中间我们要先讲一下云盘产品服务的价值，就是大家共同摊薄的服务器带宽成本这个事情。正常的互联网公司大概每兆CDN的带宽成本在7元多，便宜一点的也得6元多。阿里云在国内一般能买到8折的就算便宜的，但是很少人能买到6.5折到7折的，其实每兆的带宽成本六七块钱很正常，像B站这样的大公司也是一样的。对于个人来说也有一个存储成本的问题，如果没有存储成本的问题，那就不需要共享的逻辑了。其实共享还是大家共同来摊薄带宽服务器的成本，本质上有这么一个逻辑。\n2.3 如何定义智能云？智能云未来发展的提升空间在哪里？\n李天华（前手机百度架构师）：其实百度智能云最近的增长很高，也有一部分原因，百度以前内部有很多业务都是买阿里的，后来老板想让大家买自己的服务，所以自己也带来了很多收入的增量。\n严格意义上，百度云在业务上还有很大的提升空间，这一点我是两边看的，该给一些空间还是要给到每个业务独立发展，否则都被百度云跑着也是一个问题。当然如果都给了百度云这个收入，百度云就可以有更好的估值，上市也可以有更好的蛋糕，从二级市场拿回来，也可以更好的赋能，老板也可以赚得更多，这个也正常。\n史中（浅黑科技）：百度智能云的切入点，是留给他的空间不太多的情况下选择的。而且这个也是基于它自身的优势，就是AI。\n很多时候他切入的点，不知道你们还记不记得，百度刚推出ABC的时候其实给了一个例子，用AI帮首钢做钢板的质检，这其实是很重的一件事，不会像网站那样我卖给你资源，你上线了我就可以收租一样的赚钱，需要很强的服务，而且需要很强的适配性，钢铁厂质检这种情况本身系统是非常复杂的，需要做很多适配，做很多调整，所以这个钱说白了是一个非常辛苦的钱。包括后来做一些风电的合作，预测哪些机组会有问题，包括智能客服。\n坦率来说，工业本身的门类就比较多，所以做的是分散的。但是好处在于一旦在行业里有了一个标杆，其实这种标杆效应是非常强的。并没有那么好赚钱，但是我觉得这个赛道是最广阔的，只能这样说。但是要把它做好，其实还需要付出很大的努力。这件事情到底是不是能做成想像的那样？还是有待观察的，总之想像力是有的。\n潘乱：有人问，很多人都做AI，一直没有肉眼可见的出口，咬个牙，找个人，拉了一个智能音箱的团队，一下子找到了出口就成了。我觉得百度在技术方面一直是修炼屠龙术，一直想找到合适的场景。做智能音箱，像杭州若其，还有一家做智能音箱的，我看他们最新在工业级的解决方案里面，他们现在也是在用百度的云服务做他们的解决方案。之前做音箱的这些团队他们开始借用百度的云服务。\n求是哥（智能音箱PM）：会有这个过程。通用的这些云服务，或者通用的NLP的服务，包括科大讯飞、阿里云都有提供，就看谁的销售比较勤快。其实百度在这方面投入比较大的地方就是，它在这块的外拓，还有一些ISV是有分润的，再加上利益激励的政策。包括阿里云我感觉也一样，本质我上觉得现在还是在一个售前卖概念铺用户量的阶段，有各种各样的诉求，有的是为了提效，有的是别人做了你不做不行，还有一些地方是做了这样的东西能拿更多的政府补贴。所以地推覆盖能力还是影响比较大的，这种偏销售导向的工作，其实在整个里面比重比较大，跟整个互联网的逻辑不是特别一样。我自己的感受，垂直领域跟消费互联网不太一样，产业互联网里面各方利益关系的认知，升级的模块，这一类的知识非常重要，这一类的知识储备对于一个大公司来说不一定愿意做，很多是脏活累活，而且这个储备、积累和整理的投入每个领域都是非常大的。浅黑科技的朋友聊得很好，在选择领域这些地方还是很讲究的。\n三、自动驾驶&造车\n3.1 百度造车的快与慢？\n李天华（前手机百度架构师）：现在百度的车的董事长是我最信赖的老大哥在Cover，这个事情我觉得应该会有一个非常不错的结果，所以大家对百度的汽车还是要有些小小的期待。尤其在对股价拉动这个事情上，要有一个小小的期待。公司一般分两种，在股市里面一个是做局，一个是实打实。如果你把做局最终做成了，那你就是一个很牛的公司，就是这个逻辑。所以大家不要太担心短期，很多人吐槽说这个CEO不靠谱，那个也不靠谱。没关系，市场有足够的时间，互联网一般孵化一个新的业务，无论是体制内从一个大平台里面孵化还是从外面孵化，大概这个周期需要两年。两年的时间内，只要他走对了关键的几步，这个问题是不大的。\n3.2 百度的自动驾驶和特斯拉、滴滴的不同能力项是什么？\n史中（浅黑科技）：其实有两条自动驾驶的演进路线，以互联网厂商为代表的都差不多，他们走的是纯自动驾驶的路线，起步就是L4，起步就是没有人，可以先限定场景，限定场景的无人驾驶是他们的起步。但是像特斯拉这种，从一开始它的出发点是L2或者L3，是辅助驾驶，这是两条不一样的路线。但是他们最后都是为了走到L5，L5的意思就是不说限定场景的无人驾驶，就是任何场景，任何路况都可以到。但是现在这件事情没有人知道什么时候能达到，现在目之所及，我们能看到的是L4，L4是所有人的目标，但是L4也正在朝它行进。两条路线，一个是特斯拉路线，一个是百度路线，可以这么简单理解。\n不同点其实比较简单，就像修炼一样，有不同的法门，有剑宗，有气宗。就是屁股决定脑袋，特斯拉有车，首先必须要把车卖出去，不会以自己驾驶为己任，而是以卖车为己任。因为现在谁都做不了L5级别的自动驾驶，但是可以先卖车。用比较低级的辅助驾驶来磨炼我的自动驾驶技术，有朝一日也许我可以成为纯自动驾驶。但是百度起步的时候没有车，这种没有车起步的时候，其实最终的路线不是卖车，是卖服务。也就是说它的终极情况可能就像滴滴一样，是运营一套服务系统，不用拥有车，他只要买服务，底层所有的技术我全包了。所以根本不需要有一个阶段是用户自己开车的阶段，是以Robotaxi这种服务的形式。\n潘乱：百度现在做车这个事情应该是这一轮里面大家对百度最关注的事情，就是一个新的百度，我们目前看到的移动生态，再往前面看到的是跟云相关的事情。接近可以变现的故事应该就是车这一块了，车这一块也分几条线，比如跟这些车厂做服务，帮政府做物联网的系统。就像现在百度的智能云里面应该很多都是跟政府大交通体系绑在一起的，当然还有一块就是未来做出租车自动驾驶打车服务。但前面在讨论百度地图的时候，消费者其实不关心你的技术好不好，关心的其实就是怎么把我送过去，那个时候要考虑车辆密度够不够。\n你可以认为是给车厂做服务商，大家都觉得这是不是我的核心利益？之前传出来百度要投理想汽车，一定要用阿波罗的系统，理想没有就选择了自建。我觉得在当前，有实力的车厂可能都会选择自己能够更强把控的系统，投资或收购自动驾驶的创业公司，但不会把整个自动驾驶方案都交给百度来做，他们可能会去采买百度某些特定服务，比如高精地图。\n3.3 汽车行业真的存在百度曾设想的大安卓系统的机会吗？Apollo能不能成为汽车行业的安卓？\n\n陈同学（百度自动驾驶业务）：在汽车产业的智能化变革中，百度Apollo希望利用确定性更高的技术和解决方案，为OEM客户在有限的时间窗口，去加速智能技术上车，避免大家重复造轮子。\n首先，从企业研发投入成本看，如果考虑到要开发支持智能驾驶、包含E/E架构的多车型平台，投入成本量级在100-200亿左右；而自动驾驶软件的技术研发投入也在数百亿级别以上，需要累计销售100-200W台才能实现成本摊销。\n其次，自动驾驶软件开发除了高额成本投入之外，时间成本同样巨大，需要经历能力构建、形成有效研发能力再到产品化输出的过程。业内自主研发自动驾驶软件的企业，通常至少需要6年以上的时间。最重要的是，研发成本，并不能保证得到可用的技术成果，包括测试牌照、地图、V2X路测资源、智能云等方面，都会影响自动驾驶技术的水平和落地时间。\nApollo希望利用自己8年的技术积累，用开放合作的形式，帮助车企打造具有竞争力的智能汽车，推动全行业的发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09888":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193985214,"gmtCreate":1620745321338,"gmtModify":1704347801369,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571822975434375","idStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193985214","repostId":"1157012501","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105405658,"gmtCreate":1620314156474,"gmtModify":1704341888992,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571822975434375","idStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105405658","repostId":"1113035872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109294678,"gmtCreate":1619698036794,"gmtModify":1704728173730,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571822975434375","idStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109294678","repostId":"2131309849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131309849","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619676617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131309849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131309849","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变","content":"<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of higher inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained overall dovish, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meeting</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of higher inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained overall dovish, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meeting</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131309849","content_text":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变化：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened）。我们认为这与3月经济数据显著好于2月有关。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素。” 我们的基准测算显示，由于基数效应，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。这与美国疫情防控和疫苗接种效果有关。3、 鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”，市场并不买账。1）经济：有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）通胀：有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能不能达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）削减QE：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering，鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4）资产价格：“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，美股三大股指集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%，美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号，例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1）圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。2）基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日，美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中，货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。与3月相比，2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”，即主要货币政策维持不变，包括：维持法定和超额准备金利率（0.10%），维持联邦基金利率（0-0.25%），维持资产购买节奏（每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS），继续购买CMBS，继续执行回购协议操作等（图表1）。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化，整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化（图表2）：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened），且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据，预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出，公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力，但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为，这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关，这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外，3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次删去了形容词，仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化？我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出，虽然仅相隔一个半月，但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景，与3月会议有显著区别。第一，美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动，美国经济数据再度低迷，而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观，例如3月非农就业大增（图表3），4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降（图表4），表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二，3月开始基数效应显现，美国3月通胀指标（CPI和PPI）已经大幅抬头（图表5、图表6）。我们的基准测算显示，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE（个人消费支出指数）。根据美联储3月的最新预测（2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%），我们测算，2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%，以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径，可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上，其中4月和5月可能迎来高点，分别达到2.75%和2.77%（图表7）。需注意，这仅为保守估计，近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀，例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此，即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径，目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三，美国疫情控制情况良好（图表8），疫苗接种持续推进（图表9）。相较3月，现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”，市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括：1）对经济的表述：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）对通胀的表述：我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，不太可能看到通胀持续上升；今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能否达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）对削减QE的回复：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering（缩减QE），鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候，经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间。4）关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5）关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答，美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的，需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后，市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指小幅上涨；但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，三大股指短线下跌，最终集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后，10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%；美元指数下行至90.6左右；黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？4月议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”，但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，很明显，鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊，略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间，对于美联储政策动向的跟踪，我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关，虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中，但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着，6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355787386,"gmtCreate":1617106413645,"gmtModify":1704695888482,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571822975434375","idStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355787386","repostId":"1148049485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148049485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617103724,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148049485?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-30 19:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148049485","media":"投资界","summary":"朝云集团向外界秀了一下自己的“肌肉”。3月26日，朝云集团发布2020年年度业绩公告。公告显示，朝云集团2020年实现营业收入17.02亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长23%；年内溢利2.33亿元，同比","content":"<p>Chaoyun Group showed its \"muscles\" to the outside world.</p><p>On March 26th, Chaoyun Group released its 2020 annual results announcement. According to the announcement, Chaoyun Group achieved an operating income of 1.702 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3% and an adjusted high growth of 32.4%, with both revenue and net profit increasing. In addition, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend plan recommended by the board of directors, which is less than a month after its listing.</p><p>Chaoyun Group, which is positioned as a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, successfully landed in Hong Kong stocks on March 10th this year, with a market value of more than HK$ 11 billion. It owns many well-known brands such as Chaowei, Beibeijian, Weiwang, Runzhisu, Stubborn Tail, DUX Deshi and Xilan.</p><p>Behind Chaoyun Group is Chen Danxia, a post-80s helm. It is worth mentioning that this is the first annual performance report released by the new management team led by Chen Danxia one and a half years after they arrived. This performance completely exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the management level of the new team and the forward-looking positioning of the future business development direction.</p><p>The performance report shows that the revenue of pet care products of Chaoyun Group has increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, which has become a bright spot. Next, Chaoyun Group will fully enter pet care to meet the high growth opportunities in the pet industry. It must be known that this is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market.</p><p><b>Chaoyun Group 2020 Report Card:</b></p><p><b>Received 1.7 billion yuan a year and received another 24 million yuan of investment</b></p><p>Chaoyun Group, which has only been listed for 20 days, has already experienced ups and downs. Although the IPO broke on the first day, the investment sentiment is still strong and the market attention is extremely high. During the major adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, it is not easy for a new stock to get out of the reverse upward curve. This performance report has delivered another bright answer sheet.</p><p>On 26 March, Chaoyun Group Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Chaoyun Group\", 6601.HK) released its 2020 annual results. According to the announcement, the company achieved an operating income of RMB1.702 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46567580bfc84b25d3476727721fe902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As we all know, in 2020, due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various industries were affected to varying degrees, and against this backdrop, Chaoyun Group still showed strong profitability and its full-year results exceeded expectations. At the same time, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend payment plan proposed by the board of directors, and has proposed to pay dividends at a dividend payout ratio of 25% for 2020 profitability.</p><p>Not only that, with the steady growth of core financial indicators, Chaoyun Group's capital reserves are even more sufficient. According to the results announcement, the gross profit margin of Chaoyun Group in 2020 was RMB742.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; As at 31 December 2020, the Group's cash and cash equivalents and various deposits amounted to RMB885 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.13% as compared with the end of 2019.</p><p>In 2020, Chaoyun Group's product categories continued to improve and achieved full-category growth. Among them, the revenue of pet care products increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, and the revenue of home care products and personal care products increased by 20% and 51.7% respectively.</p><p>In addition, the comprehensive expansion of sales channels was also a highlight of Chaoyun Group's performance last year.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chaoyun Group's online and offline omni-channel coverage business has grown rapidly. Since 2018, its self-built e-commerce team has developed online business, and it has rapidly fissioned from a single store to 26 self-operated stores and more than 20 online channels, with a year-on-year growth of 92.8% in 2020. The revenue of self-operated online stores increased by 121.5%, which will be beneficial to the growth of gross profit; OFFLINE has more than 1,200 offline distributors, approximately 620,000 sales outlets, 48 major customers and 11,000 retail outlets covering all provinces and all prefecture-level cities in China, fully penetrating tier 1 to tier 5 cities, and its revenue increased by 14.4% year-on-year in 2020.</p><p>The strong coverage of offline channels and the clear profit model of online channels are the cornerstones of sustainable development of consumer goods enterprises under the Internet economy. Especially today, with the growth rate of third-tier cities in China exceeding that of first-and second-tier cities, rapid and effective penetration into low-tier cities through strong distribution capabilities is the key to offline sustainable development; The rapid development of online business, the expansion of emerging channel communities and the layout of home-to-home business are also a major increase in the future development of the company.</p><p>According to the equity data of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chaoyun Group was recently increased by 3.56 million shares by Morgan Stanley, involving an investment of about RMB 24.25 million. After the increase, the latest number of shares held is about 80,543,100 shares, and the latest shareholding ratio is 6.04%. This also just proves the unexpected performance of Chaoyun Group, which has once again been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>The second generation of the post-80s generation is at the helm,</b></p><p><b>Creating a tracked learning organization</b></p><p>The unexpected development of Chaoyun Group can't be separated from the helm behind it-Chen Danxia.</p><p>Chen Danxia started her business in 2004 while studying at the University of Sydney, Australia. In 2008, she parachuted to Gaozi as the general manager and became the chairman of Gaozi in 2014. Faced with many difficulties at that time, Chen Danxia made drastic reforms as soon as she took office, starting from four aspects: team building, channel expansion, organizational structure reconstruction and series of new product development. Soon, Gaozi achieved contrarian growth within two years, maintaining a growth rate of more than 50% for many consecutive years, becoming the first case of a domestic daily chemical giant acquiring a cosmetics company and successfully transforming.</p><p>After this battle, Chen Danxia gained more recognition as a second generation post-80s, and began to take charge of Chaowei Division, the predecessor of Chaoyun Group. In 2018, she reorganized the businesses of a number of companies in Chaowei Division to form Chaoyun Group. In 2019, Chen Danxia became the chairman and CEO of Chaoyun Group, set up a brand-new management team and e-commerce business team, reorganized the offline business team, and further quickly implemented the strategic layout of multi-brands and multi-categories.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a275f5c8a5f70ab8723996d4620cff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Compared with the top 500 consumer goods enterprises in the world, if a consumer goods enterprise wants to become bigger and stronger, it must have the ability to operate in multiple brands and categories, and build a crawler development team. In the past, the Chinese market lacked teams with multi-brand, multi-category operation and successful comprehensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, which is the advantage of Chaoyun Group's management team.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chen Danxia and her management team have rich industry experience across platforms, channels and fields, spanning cosmetics, daily chemicals, maternal and infant products, pets and e-commerce. He also has extensive experience and international perspective in rapid integration of domestic and overseas mergers and acquisitions. The team members have an average of more than 15 years of experience in the industry and have worked for companies under Chaoyun Group for an average of more than 10 years.</p><p>It is reported that Chen Danxia is low-key and good at learning. She is very good at strategy formulation and dismantling of online and offline businesses. She has her own unique experience and intuition for brand management and incubation, and spends a lot of energy with the team every day. Since taking office as CEO of Chaoyun, she has personally led the team, and through the general meeting of the center on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, she has ensured that the coordination direction of the seven centers of Chaoyun Group is consistent; Each center will also hold weekly meetings and monthly reviews to ensure that the secondary departments under each center have a consistent coordination direction, and form a top-down organization with unified thinking and consistent actions. During the epidemic, Chaoyun Group held more than 3,000 training sessions for more than 1,000 offline dealers in one month, helping more than 100,000 dealers cope with the new retail pattern in the new consumption era after the epidemic. In addition, she also set up Chaoyun College, requiring all centers to train and cultivate talents for echelons within their respective jurisdictions, so as to build an organizational structure of multi-brand and multi-category consumer goods group, a tracked talent incubation system and an empowering gene to attract external talents.</p><p>With excellent multi-brand and multi-category operation capabilities and strong organizational management capabilities, Chen Danxia led Chaoyun team to successfully incubate a number of industry leading brands and create a strategy of thousands of people. They have invested a lot of energy and money in research and development, and carried out multi-brand and tracked layout on products for each category of products to meet the different needs of consumers, which is rare in the industry.</p><p>In addition, qualification and compliance capabilities are also indispensable factors for the rapid development of Chaoyun Group. It is reported that Chaoyun Group has formulated strict standards for many processes such as market access, production, quality control and sewage discharge. Whether it is mosquito repellent, insect killing, disinfection and sterilization, pet care, personal care and other industries, there are very high access qualification requirements.</p><p>In the end, Chaoyun Group built a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, and was able to achieve outstanding results against the trend in 2020.</p><p><b>Enter pet care in an all-round way,</b></p><p><b>This is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market</b></p><p>How much imagination does Chaoyun Group have for future growth?</p><p>According to the CIC Report, China's pet care, home care and personal care markets are the three fastest growing segments, and the CAGR of retail sales of pet care, home care and personal care markets between 2019 and 2024 is expected to be 17.8%, 8.7% and 8.9%, respectively. It is estimated that in 2024, the home care market will reach 69.4 billion, the personal care market will reach 701.4 billion, and the pet market will also exceed 100 billion.</p><p>In addition, Guotai Junan Research also pointed out that with the increase and increase of single youth and social pressure, the number of pets keeping has gradually increased, mainly cats and dogs, reaching 100 million in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32d0a8cd2f6a976804c9b2fde0af8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It can be seen that the future development of Chaoyun Group's core categories has a huge incremental space, which has been reflected in the performance report.</p><p>According to the performance report, Chaoyun Group began to enter the pet care sector with fast growth and high gross profit in 2019. The newly created brand \"Stubborn Tail\" ranked first in Tmall's pet perfume deodorization category four months after its listing. In 2020, the total revenue of Chaoyun Group's pet care business increased by more than 10 times. From 2021 to 2022, Chaoyun Group will launch a total of 62 new products, including 31 pet care products, accounting for half of the proportion, which shows that Chaoyun Group attaches great importance to emerging categories.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that whenever Chaoyun Group chooses to enter a new category, it will first use the integration capability of the supply chain to build a competitive advantage and ensure that it provides high-quality products with controllable raw materials and production costs. The reason why we chose to strategically develop the pet care sector is not only that the track itself is large in scale, fast in growth, great in potential and low in brand concentration, but also because it can be connected with other sectors of the Group with established advantages. The successful experience of other sectors also enables Chaoyun Group to solve the needs of young people for new brands, new products and personalization.</p><p>Next, Chaoyun Group focused on the pet care sector. With the advantages that the Group has established in the pet care sector, 2021 will fully enter the pet track. Chaoyun Group will also rely on its leading market position and omni-channel distribution network to welcome the high growth opportunities of the pet industry and enjoy the benefits of the pet blue ocean market of 100 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time, Chaoyun Group also stated in the performance announcement that the company will continue to upgrade product technology, lay out overseas R&D centers, make use of the advantages of local research talents, research and transform consumer demand, and create customized products. The Group will continue to implement its environmental, social and governance and sustainable development strategy, continue to implement the strategy of reaching thousands of people, and expand product offerings to build a one-stop multi-category platform.</p><p>Going public is just a starting point. In the future, with the continuous deepening and rapid development in the fields of personal care and pet care, Chaoyun Group led by Chen Danxia will embark on a new journey.</p>","source":"tzj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Post-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPost-80s Female CEO Leads Team, Chaoyun Strongest Team Kills New 100 Billion Business\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-30 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chaoyun Group showed its \"muscles\" to the outside world.</p><p>On March 26th, Chaoyun Group released its 2020 annual results announcement. According to the announcement, Chaoyun Group achieved an operating income of 1.702 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3% and an adjusted high growth of 32.4%, with both revenue and net profit increasing. In addition, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend plan recommended by the board of directors, which is less than a month after its listing.</p><p>Chaoyun Group, which is positioned as a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, successfully landed in Hong Kong stocks on March 10th this year, with a market value of more than HK$ 11 billion. It owns many well-known brands such as Chaowei, Beibeijian, Weiwang, Runzhisu, Stubborn Tail, DUX Deshi and Xilan.</p><p>Behind Chaoyun Group is Chen Danxia, a post-80s helm. It is worth mentioning that this is the first annual performance report released by the new management team led by Chen Danxia one and a half years after they arrived. This performance completely exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the management level of the new team and the forward-looking positioning of the future business development direction.</p><p>The performance report shows that the revenue of pet care products of Chaoyun Group has increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, which has become a bright spot. Next, Chaoyun Group will fully enter pet care to meet the high growth opportunities in the pet industry. It must be known that this is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market.</p><p><b>Chaoyun Group 2020 Report Card:</b></p><p><b>Received 1.7 billion yuan a year and received another 24 million yuan of investment</b></p><p>Chaoyun Group, which has only been listed for 20 days, has already experienced ups and downs. Although the IPO broke on the first day, the investment sentiment is still strong and the market attention is extremely high. During the major adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, it is not easy for a new stock to get out of the reverse upward curve. This performance report has delivered another bright answer sheet.</p><p>On 26 March, Chaoyun Group Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Chaoyun Group\", 6601.HK) released its 2020 annual results. According to the announcement, the company achieved an operating income of RMB1.702 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 23%; Profit for the year amounted to RMB233 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46567580bfc84b25d3476727721fe902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As we all know, in 2020, due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various industries were affected to varying degrees, and against this backdrop, Chaoyun Group still showed strong profitability and its full-year results exceeded expectations. At the same time, Chaoyun Group also announced the dividend payment plan proposed by the board of directors, and has proposed to pay dividends at a dividend payout ratio of 25% for 2020 profitability.</p><p>Not only that, with the steady growth of core financial indicators, Chaoyun Group's capital reserves are even more sufficient. According to the results announcement, the gross profit margin of Chaoyun Group in 2020 was RMB742.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; As at 31 December 2020, the Group's cash and cash equivalents and various deposits amounted to RMB885 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.13% as compared with the end of 2019.</p><p>In 2020, Chaoyun Group's product categories continued to improve and achieved full-category growth. Among them, the revenue of pet care products increased by more than ten times compared with the previous year, and the revenue of home care products and personal care products increased by 20% and 51.7% respectively.</p><p>In addition, the comprehensive expansion of sales channels was also a highlight of Chaoyun Group's performance last year.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chaoyun Group's online and offline omni-channel coverage business has grown rapidly. Since 2018, its self-built e-commerce team has developed online business, and it has rapidly fissioned from a single store to 26 self-operated stores and more than 20 online channels, with a year-on-year growth of 92.8% in 2020. The revenue of self-operated online stores increased by 121.5%, which will be beneficial to the growth of gross profit; OFFLINE has more than 1,200 offline distributors, approximately 620,000 sales outlets, 48 major customers and 11,000 retail outlets covering all provinces and all prefecture-level cities in China, fully penetrating tier 1 to tier 5 cities, and its revenue increased by 14.4% year-on-year in 2020.</p><p>The strong coverage of offline channels and the clear profit model of online channels are the cornerstones of sustainable development of consumer goods enterprises under the Internet economy. Especially today, with the growth rate of third-tier cities in China exceeding that of first-and second-tier cities, rapid and effective penetration into low-tier cities through strong distribution capabilities is the key to offline sustainable development; The rapid development of online business, the expansion of emerging channel communities and the layout of home-to-home business are also a major increase in the future development of the company.</p><p>According to the equity data of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chaoyun Group was recently increased by 3.56 million shares by Morgan Stanley, involving an investment of about RMB 24.25 million. After the increase, the latest number of shares held is about 80,543,100 shares, and the latest shareholding ratio is 6.04%. This also just proves the unexpected performance of Chaoyun Group, which has once again been recognized by the capital market.</p><p><b>The second generation of the post-80s generation is at the helm,</b></p><p><b>Creating a tracked learning organization</b></p><p>The unexpected development of Chaoyun Group can't be separated from the helm behind it-Chen Danxia.</p><p>Chen Danxia started her business in 2004 while studying at the University of Sydney, Australia. In 2008, she parachuted to Gaozi as the general manager and became the chairman of Gaozi in 2014. Faced with many difficulties at that time, Chen Danxia made drastic reforms as soon as she took office, starting from four aspects: team building, channel expansion, organizational structure reconstruction and series of new product development. Soon, Gaozi achieved contrarian growth within two years, maintaining a growth rate of more than 50% for many consecutive years, becoming the first case of a domestic daily chemical giant acquiring a cosmetics company and successfully transforming.</p><p>After this battle, Chen Danxia gained more recognition as a second generation post-80s, and began to take charge of Chaowei Division, the predecessor of Chaoyun Group. In 2018, she reorganized the businesses of a number of companies in Chaowei Division to form Chaoyun Group. In 2019, Chen Danxia became the chairman and CEO of Chaoyun Group, set up a brand-new management team and e-commerce business team, reorganized the offline business team, and further quickly implemented the strategic layout of multi-brands and multi-categories.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a275f5c8a5f70ab8723996d4620cff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Compared with the top 500 consumer goods enterprises in the world, if a consumer goods enterprise wants to become bigger and stronger, it must have the ability to operate in multiple brands and categories, and build a crawler development team. In the past, the Chinese market lacked teams with multi-brand, multi-category operation and successful comprehensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, which is the advantage of Chaoyun Group's management team.</p><p>According to the performance announcement, Chen Danxia and her management team have rich industry experience across platforms, channels and fields, spanning cosmetics, daily chemicals, maternal and infant products, pets and e-commerce. He also has extensive experience and international perspective in rapid integration of domestic and overseas mergers and acquisitions. The team members have an average of more than 15 years of experience in the industry and have worked for companies under Chaoyun Group for an average of more than 10 years.</p><p>It is reported that Chen Danxia is low-key and good at learning. She is very good at strategy formulation and dismantling of online and offline businesses. She has her own unique experience and intuition for brand management and incubation, and spends a lot of energy with the team every day. Since taking office as CEO of Chaoyun, she has personally led the team, and through the general meeting of the center on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, she has ensured that the coordination direction of the seven centers of Chaoyun Group is consistent; Each center will also hold weekly meetings and monthly reviews to ensure that the secondary departments under each center have a consistent coordination direction, and form a top-down organization with unified thinking and consistent actions. During the epidemic, Chaoyun Group held more than 3,000 training sessions for more than 1,000 offline dealers in one month, helping more than 100,000 dealers cope with the new retail pattern in the new consumption era after the epidemic. In addition, she also set up Chaoyun College, requiring all centers to train and cultivate talents for echelons within their respective jurisdictions, so as to build an organizational structure of multi-brand and multi-category consumer goods group, a tracked talent incubation system and an empowering gene to attract external talents.</p><p>With excellent multi-brand and multi-category operation capabilities and strong organizational management capabilities, Chen Danxia led Chaoyun team to successfully incubate a number of industry leading brands and create a strategy of thousands of people. They have invested a lot of energy and money in research and development, and carried out multi-brand and tracked layout on products for each category of products to meet the different needs of consumers, which is rare in the industry.</p><p>In addition, qualification and compliance capabilities are also indispensable factors for the rapid development of Chaoyun Group. It is reported that Chaoyun Group has formulated strict standards for many processes such as market access, production, quality control and sewage discharge. Whether it is mosquito repellent, insect killing, disinfection and sterilization, pet care, personal care and other industries, there are very high access qualification requirements.</p><p>In the end, Chaoyun Group built a one-stop multi-category home care, pet care and personal care platform, and was able to achieve outstanding results against the trend in 2020.</p><p><b>Enter pet care in an all-round way,</b></p><p><b>This is a hundred billion-level blue ocean market</b></p><p>How much imagination does Chaoyun Group have for future growth?</p><p>According to the CIC Report, China's pet care, home care and personal care markets are the three fastest growing segments, and the CAGR of retail sales of pet care, home care and personal care markets between 2019 and 2024 is expected to be 17.8%, 8.7% and 8.9%, respectively. It is estimated that in 2024, the home care market will reach 69.4 billion, the personal care market will reach 701.4 billion, and the pet market will also exceed 100 billion.</p><p>In addition, Guotai Junan Research also pointed out that with the increase and increase of single youth and social pressure, the number of pets keeping has gradually increased, mainly cats and dogs, reaching 100 million in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32d0a8cd2f6a976804c9b2fde0af8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It can be seen that the future development of Chaoyun Group's core categories has a huge incremental space, which has been reflected in the performance report.</p><p>According to the performance report, Chaoyun Group began to enter the pet care sector with fast growth and high gross profit in 2019. The newly created brand \"Stubborn Tail\" ranked first in Tmall's pet perfume deodorization category four months after its listing. In 2020, the total revenue of Chaoyun Group's pet care business increased by more than 10 times. From 2021 to 2022, Chaoyun Group will launch a total of 62 new products, including 31 pet care products, accounting for half of the proportion, which shows that Chaoyun Group attaches great importance to emerging categories.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that whenever Chaoyun Group chooses to enter a new category, it will first use the integration capability of the supply chain to build a competitive advantage and ensure that it provides high-quality products with controllable raw materials and production costs. The reason why we chose to strategically develop the pet care sector is not only that the track itself is large in scale, fast in growth, great in potential and low in brand concentration, but also because it can be connected with other sectors of the Group with established advantages. The successful experience of other sectors also enables Chaoyun Group to solve the needs of young people for new brands, new products and personalization.</p><p>Next, Chaoyun Group focused on the pet care sector. With the advantages that the Group has established in the pet care sector, 2021 will fully enter the pet track. Chaoyun Group will also rely on its leading market position and omni-channel distribution network to welcome the high growth opportunities of the pet industry and enjoy the benefits of the pet blue ocean market of 100 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time, Chaoyun Group also stated in the performance announcement that the company will continue to upgrade product technology, lay out overseas R&D centers, make use of the advantages of local research talents, research and transform consumer demand, and create customized products. The Group will continue to implement its environmental, social and governance and sustainable development strategy, continue to implement the strategy of reaching thousands of people, and expand product offerings to build a one-stop multi-category platform.</p><p>Going public is just a starting point. In the future, with the continuous deepening and rapid development in the fields of personal care and pet care, Chaoyun Group led by Chen Danxia will embark on a new journey.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i8UhPQ2K6tr4-WeczmCJUA\">投资界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a275f5c8a5f70ab8723996d4620cff","relate_stocks":{"06601":"朝云集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i8UhPQ2K6tr4-WeczmCJUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148049485","content_text":"朝云集团向外界秀了一下自己的“肌肉”。3月26日，朝云集团发布2020年年度业绩公告。公告显示，朝云集团2020年实现营业收入17.02亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长23%；年内溢利2.33亿元，同比增长26.3%，经调整达到32.4%高增长，营收与净利双双上升。此外，朝云集团还公布了董事会建议派息方案，这距离其上市仅不到一个月时间。定位为一站式多品类家居护理、宠物护理和个人护理平台的朝云集团，此前刚于今年3月10日成功登陆港股，市值超过110亿港元。其旗下拥有超威、贝贝健、威王、润之素、倔强的尾巴、DUX德是、西兰等多个知名品牌。在朝云集团的背后，是一位80后掌舵人——陈丹霞。值得一提的是，此次是由陈丹霞带领的新管理团队到岗一年半后，发布的第一份全年业绩报告。此次业绩完全超出市场预期，展现了新团队的管理水平及对未来业务发展方向的定位很有前瞻性。业绩报告显示，朝云集团宠物护理产品的收入较上一年度增长超十倍，成为一大亮点。接下来，朝云集团将会全面进军宠物护理，迎接宠物行业高增长机会。须知道，这是一个千亿级蓝海市场。朝云集团2020成绩单：一年进账17个亿，再获2400万元投资上市仅20天的朝云集团，已经经历风雨，IPO首日虽破发，但投资情绪依然浓烈，市场关注度极高。在港股大调整期间，一支新股能走出反向上攻曲线，实属不易。本次业绩报告又交出了一份亮眼的答卷。3月26日，朝云集团有限公司（以下简称“朝云集团”，6601.HK）发布2020年年度业绩。公告显示，公司2020年实现公司营业收入人民币 17.02亿元，同比增长23%；年内溢利2.33亿元，同比增长26.3%。众所周知，2020年因新冠疫情爆发，各行业均受到了不同程度的影响，在此背景下，朝云集团依然表现出强劲的盈利能力，全年业绩超出预期。与此同时，朝云集团还公布了董事会建议派息方案，已建议就2020年度盈利情况，按25%的派息率分红派息。不仅如此，伴随着核心财务指标稳步增长，朝云集团的资金储备更是充足。业绩公告显示，2020年朝云集团的毛利率额为人民币7.426亿元，同比增长23.8%；截止2020年12月31日，集团持有现金及现金等价物各种存款为人民币8.85亿元，较2019年年末同比增长73.13%。朝云集团的产品品类在2020年度进行了持续改进，得以实现全品类增长。其中，宠物护理产品的收入较上一年度增长超十倍，家居护理产品和个人护理产品的收入分别增长20%和51.7%。此外，销售渠道的全面拓展也是朝云集团去年业绩的一大亮点。业绩公告显示，朝云集团线上线下全渠道覆盖业务快速增长，自2018年自建电商团队发展线上业务，快速从单一店铺裂变至26个自营店铺、20多个线上渠道，2020年增长同比92.8%。自营线上商店的收入则大幅增长121.5%，这一增长将有利于毛利增长；线下拥有超过1200家线下经销商，约62万个销售网点，48名大客户以及覆盖国内所有省份、所有地级市的11,000个零售网点，全面渗透1至5线城市，2020年营收同比增长14.4%。线下渠道强势覆盖和线上渠道盈利模式清晰，这是一家互联网经济下消费品企业的可持续发展基石。尤其是在中国三线城市发展增速超于一二线城市的今天，通过强大的分销能力快速有效地渗透到低线城市是线下可持续发展的关键；快速发展线上业务、拓展新兴渠道社群、布局到家业务同样也是未来公司发展的一大增量。港交所权益资料显示，朝云集团日前获摩根士丹利增持356万股，涉资约合人民币2425万元。增持后最新持股数目约为8054.31万股，最新持股比例为6.04%。这也恰好证明了朝云集团超预期的业绩，再一次得到了资本市场的认可。80后创二代掌舵，打造履带式学习型组织朝云集团的超预期发展离不开背后的掌舵人——陈丹霞。陈丹霞于2004年澳洲悉尼大学就读期间开始创业，2008年空降到高姿担任总经理，并于2014年担任高姿董事长。面对彼时的重重困境，陈丹霞甫一上任便进行了大刀阔斧的改革，从团队建设、渠道拓展、组织架构重建、系列新品开发这四个方面入手。很快，高姿在两年之内就实现了逆势增长，连续多年保持50%以上的增速，成为首个国内日化巨头收购化妆品企业并转型成功的案例。经此一役，陈丹霞作为一名80后创二代得到了更多的认可，并开始负责朝云集团的前身—超威事业部。2018年，她将超威事业部的多家公司业务重组成立朝云集团，2019年陈丹霞成为朝云集团董事长兼CEO，组建了全新的管理团队和电商业务团队，重整了线下业务团队，进一步快速实施多品牌和多品类的战略布局。对比国际上的五百强消费品企业，一家消费品企业想要做大做强，必须具备多品牌多品类经营的能力，以及打造出一支履带式发展的团队。过往来看，中国市场非常缺乏消费品多品牌、多品类经营和兼并购重组成功综合经验的团队，而这则是朝云集团管理团队的优势所在。业绩公告显示，陈丹霞及其管理团队拥有跨平台跨渠道多领域的丰富行业经验，横跨化妆品、日化、母婴产品、宠物及电商等多个领域。在国内外兼并购并快速整合方面，亦具备丰富经验及国际视野。团队成员在行业内的经验平均超过15年，在朝云集团旗下公司工作平均超过10年。据悉，陈丹霞为人低调、善于学习，对于线上、线下业务的战略制定和拆解很有一套，对于品牌管理和孵化有自己独到的经验和直觉，日常花了大量精力和团队在一起。上任朝云CEO至今她亲自带队，通过周一三五中心总例会，确保朝云集团七大中心协同方向一致；各中心也会召开周例会及月复盘，确保各中心下属各二级部门协同方向一致，形成组织自上而下思想统一、行动一致。疫情期间，朝云集团针对线下的一千多个经销商，一个月时间召开了3000多场培训会，帮助十几万经销商队伍应对疫情后新消费时代的新零售格局。此外，她还设立了朝云学院，要求所有中心总必须对各自管辖范围内的梯队进行培训和人才培养，以打造多品牌多品类消费品集团的组织结构，履带式人才孵化体系和吸引外部人才的赋能型基因。正是凭借出色的多品牌多品类运营能力和强大的组织管理能力，陈丹霞带领朝云团队成功孵化了多个行业领导品牌，并打造千人千面的战略。他们在研发方面投入了大量的精力和资金，对每个品类的产品进行多品牌和产品上的履带式布局，以应对消费者不同的需求，这在业内来说都是少有的。除此之外，符合资质准入及合规能力也是朝云集团快速发展不可或缺的因素。据悉，朝云集团对市场准入、生产、质控、排污等诸多流程制定了严格的标准。无论是驱蚊杀虫、消毒除菌、宠物护理、个人护理等等行业，都有非常高的准入资质要求。最终，朝云集团构建了一站式多品类家居护理、宠物护理和个人护理平台，并得以在2020年逆势取得亮眼的业绩。全面进军宠物护理，这是一个千亿级蓝海市场朝云集团未来增长的想象空间有多大？灼识咨询报告显示，中国的宠物护理、家居护理及个人护理市场是增长最快的三个细分板块，2019年至2024年间宠物护理、家居护理及个人护理市场零售额的复合年增长率预计将分别为17.8%、8.7%及8.9%。预计2024年家居护理市场体量将达到694亿，个人护理市场体量将达7014亿，宠物市场体量也将突破1000亿规模。除此之外，国泰君安研究也指出，随着单身青年和社会压力的提升和加大，饲养宠物的人群逐渐提升，宠物主要是猫和狗，2020年达到1亿只。由此可见，朝云集团的核心品类未来发展增量空间十分庞大，这在业绩报告中已经有所体现。业绩报告显示，朝云集团在2019年就开始进入增速快、毛利高的宠物护理板块，新创立的品牌“倔强的尾巴”上市4个月即获得天猫宠物香水除味类目排名第一。2020年朝云集团宠物护理业务总营收实现超10倍增长，2021年~2022年朝云集团将新推出合计62个新产品，其中宠物护理产品有31个，占一半比重，足见朝云集团对新兴品类的重视。值得一提的是，每当朝云集团选择进入一个新品类时，首先会利用供应链的整合能力打造竞争优势，确保在原料和生产成本可控的情况下提供优质的产品。而之所以选择战略发展宠物护理板块，除了赛道本身规模大、增速快、潜力大、品牌集中度低等原因，还因为能够和集团其他已建立优势的板块相互打通连接。有其他板块成功的经验，也使得朝云集团能够针对性地去解决现在年轻人对新品牌、新产品、个性化的需求。接下来，朝云集团将目光重点瞄向了宠物护理板块。随着集团已经在宠物护理板块建立的优势，2021将会全面进入宠物大赛道。而朝云集团也将凭借领先的市场地位加上全渠道分销网络，迎接宠物行业高增长机会，享受宠物蓝海千亿级市场的福利。与此同时，朝云集团在业绩公告中也表示，公司将继续坚持产品技术升级，布局海外研发中心，利用当地研究人才的优势，研究并转换消费者需求，打造定制产品。集团仍要实行环境、社会及管治及可持续发展战略，继续实施千人千面的战略，并扩展产品供应以构建一个一站式多品类平台。上市只是一个起点。未来，随着在个人护理及宠物护理领域的持续深化和快速发展，陈丹霞带领的朝云集团又将踏上一段新征程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06601":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356716175,"gmtCreate":1616814759297,"gmtModify":1704799349087,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571822975434375","idStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356716175","repostId":"1136026980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359953581,"gmtCreate":1616327972843,"gmtModify":1704792926229,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571822975434375","idStr":"3571822975434375"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359953581","repostId":"1164108164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318724102,"gmtCreate":1611894794806,"gmtModify":1704865361793,"author":{"id":"3571822975434375","authorId":"3571822975434375","name":"wormsccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa76875645103bf18f2faa96838defd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"35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12:13","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127806526","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据币安平台报价，狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%，现报0.0843美元/枚。此前，掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说","content":"<p>According to Binance platform quotation, Dogecoin has increased by 1000% in 24 hours and is now traded at $0.0843/coin.</p><p>Previously, the Reddit forum, a gathering place for U.S. retail investors that set off an epic short squeeze, mentioned this asset. A post called \"Dogecoin is the next GME/Bitcoin\" said that getting Dogecoin to the price of $1 a coin (currently around $0.01) would be an incredible achievement, which completely changed the crypto market and sent Dogecoin to the moon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0d53d3d30e42f62105539cb3386286\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican retail investors are crazy, and Dogecoin has risen by 1000% in 24 hours!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-01-29 12:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to Binance platform quotation, Dogecoin has increased by 1000% in 24 hours and is now traded at $0.0843/coin.</p><p>Previously, the Reddit forum, a gathering place for U.S. retail investors that set off an epic short squeeze, mentioned this asset. A post called \"Dogecoin is the next GME/Bitcoin\" said that getting Dogecoin to the price of $1 a coin (currently around $0.01) would be an incredible achievement, which completely changed the crypto market and sent Dogecoin to the moon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0d53d3d30e42f62105539cb3386286\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7205988a988ce4825a8d768caf27bd23","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127806526","content_text":"据币安平台报价，狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%，现报0.0843美元/枚。此前，掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说，让Dogecoin达到1美元一个币的价格（目前约为0.01美元）将是一个不可思议的成就，这完全改变了加密市场，送Dogecoin到月球。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}