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- Leongzai89Leongzai89
  ·2021-09-11
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- Leongzai89Leongzai89
  ·2021-06-28
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  From U.S. stocks to Zhongfang, when will the bubble burst?
  这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：如果从实时指数价
  From U.S. stocks to Zhongfang, when will the bubble burst?
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- Leongzai89Leongzai89
  ·2021-04-30
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11:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"From U.S. stocks to Zhongfang, when will the bubble burst?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174566320","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价","content":"<p>On this earth, there is probably no traditional asset class stronger than the US stock market.</p><p>The following picture shows the point changes of the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks from January 1901 to now, which is divided into two types: inflation-adjusted price index and real-time price index:</p><p>If you look at real-time index prices, since the United States entered World War II, in addition to experiencing several deepest corrections of about 50%, U.S. stocks have experienced a long bull market for a full 80 years;</p><p>Judging from the inflation-adjusted index price, the bull market in the United States started in mid-1982. So far, it has continued to rise for nearly 40 years as a whole-during which it only experienced the stock market crash in 1987, the burst of the technology stock bubble in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. That is to say, it will take almost 10 years for U.S. stocks to rise before they will experience a decent adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c6913fd0576f293a7c91a7cff442b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2017, because the price of U.S. stocks has repeatedly hit new highs, especially from the periodic P/E valuation (CAPE, also known as Shiller PE), which is extremely accurate to judge the highs and lows of U.S. stocks in the past 150 years, the valuation of U.S. stocks is second only to the technology stock bubble in 2000 and higher than the stock market bubble in 1929...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16577af008708667790865ac954a024\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Not only that, even with the so-called \"Buffett index\", US stocks are ridiculously expensive: it is generally believed that the total market value/GDP of US stocks should be 70-100% as a reasonable valuation, and more than 120% is overvalued. Since 2017, Buffett's index has exceeded 130% and continues to be maintained.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79280cb5512f0a8d15fb0895b452178\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the U.S. stock market has been strong until the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, when it experienced a relatively deep adjustment-but this adjustment was much shorter than the stock market crash in 1987 (adjusted for 4 months). It fell to the lowest point within one month in March, and then quickly achieved a V-shaped reversal, rising until today...</p><p>Today, the cyclical P/E of U.S. stocks has reached 38, and Buffett's index has broken through the 200% horizon.</p><p>Why can US stocks be so expensive now, and they can still stay unfallen?</p><p>Because —</p><p><b>P/E is an indicator of the past, while the price of U.S. stocks is an expectation of the future.</b></p><p>Affected by the epidemic, the 2020 S&P 500<b>Earnings per share</b>(EPS) is only $96.5, but in the fourth quarter of last year, the EPS of U.S. stocks has rebounded rapidly. According to the latest general forecast of major investment banks, the EPS of U.S. stocks S&P 500 can basically double that of 2020 throughout 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ae082e5e8f0faa991647f33a7ed7d6\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the traditional PE (P/E), the valuation of US stocks is as high as 45.48 times. However, according to the EPS analysis of US stocks generally predicted by investment banks, if the current S&P point remains unchanged, the valuation of S&P 500 will drop to 23 times (index point/EPS = PE) by next year, which is a very reasonable valuation.</p><p>If the annual EPS (or expected EPS) after six months is used to value US stocks, the valuation of US stocks has actually been very stable in the past seven years:<b>Basically between 20-25 times</b>(See image below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6e9726f4b7e2b78a635a92511bdca8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Description: The PE valuation since 2021 is calculated according to the 2021 EPS forecast by major investment banks.</p><p>According to this picture, only from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, because the market did not expect the impact of the economic recession and the COVID-19 epidemic on the expected PE, it seemed overestimated. In the past seven years, if the abnormal data from July 2019 to June 2020 were not considered, the valuation of the S&P 500 index, with the highest of 24.3 and the lowest of 19.4, fluctuated in the narrow range of 20-23 for most of the time.</p><p>Observing the valuation of U.S. stocks by expecting EPS, the market is simply too rational.</p><p>Therefore, fundamentally speaking, the valuation of U.S. stocks is basically driven by the expected EPS. Because the expected EPS rises or falls sharply, the S&P index rises or falls sharply, but the expected valuation remains basically stable.</p><p>What is expected?</p><p>The essence of expectation is that the market believes in a set of stories and a narrative logic.</p><p>This is exactly the story told by Dharma Dahlan-a set of logic of valuation. Six months ago, I used this method to value U.S. stocks. Assuming that the EPS of S&P 500 can recover to $120 in 2021, and then increase by 5% every year,... Finally, adding the EPS in 21 years, it is concluded that the reasonable price of S&P 500 at that time should be around 3,800...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13b1a5a5dfa234b7298250515e237e7\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>See Article: What Should Be a Reasonable Price for U.S. Stocks in 2021?</p><p>Obviously, at that time, I seriously underestimated the ability of large technology companies in the United States to recover profitability from the epidemic. The EPS I expected of $120 was 1/3 lower than the EPS of about $185 predicted by the current market... If the above valuation logic is also followed, the reasonable price of the S&P 500 index can be as high as more than 5,000 points.</p><p>Of course, Damodalan also said that because the world is changing at any time, the valuation of stocks should also be dynamic. There should be a feedback loop, which can adjust your valuation at any time because of the changes of the company itself and the environment, or even overturn the whole story.</p><p>In our limited life experience, what we see is that the U.S. stock market is a long bull. Even if it is a little adjusted in the short term, it will quickly recover and rise to a higher level. However, if you look at U.S. stocks from a longer history, this is not the case.</p><p>According to the first chart of this article, calculated in nominal terms, after the U.S. stock market crash in 1929, it took a quarter of a century before the U.S. stock market rose back to the high point of the original crash.</p><p>In terms of inflation-adjusted prices, from the high of the stock market in 1969 to the middle of 1982, U.S. stocks fell all the way for 13 years, falling for 13 consecutive years, and then experienced another 12 years before rising back to the high of 1969 in 1994. After all, it was also a quarter of a century.</p><p>Since 1982, the United States has been able to maintain a long bull for nearly 40 years, and every time the U.S. stock market plummets, there will always be a violent V-shaped reversal. The most critical reason lies in the success of the Federal Reserve's money printing and official inflation control.</p><p>As we all know, since 1982, every time the U.S. stock market has suffered a plunge, the Federal Reserve has always sacrificed their loose money method, desperately printed money, tried hard to lower the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate, hindered the normal clearing of the market and the survival of the fittest, and thus prevented the price of U.S. stocks from falling.</p><p>Emergency rate cuts in 1987;</p><p>Continued interest rate cuts in 2001;</p><p>Cut interest rates to 0 in 2008 and start QE;</p><p>Cut interest rates to 0 in 2020 to open unlimited Q;</p><p>……</p><p>The Federal Reserve's printing of money and lowering interest rates have hindered the normal adjustment of U.S. stocks in at least three ways.</p><p>1) Printing money to buy Treasury Bond depresses the risk-free rate of return in the market and enhances the attractiveness of stocks relative to Treasury Bond.</p><p>2) Lower market interest rates and let savers in the market subsidize borrowers. Listed companies in U.S. stocks can raise funds in the global market at a lower cost, essentially becoming loan sharks.</p><p>3) There is more money in the market. Those large companies listed in U.S. stocks can take advantage of their credit advantages and monopoly position to grab more profits from the market.</p><p>US stocks are like this, but China's real estate is not like this?</p><p>In 2008 and 2014, China's real estate prices were slightly adjusted at that time. The government immediately offered money printing, cut interest rates to encourage people to take out loans to buy houses, and dramatically expanded the scale of credit. As a result, can these assets not become the assets of \"long cattle\"?</p><p>Of course, if money printing causes severe inflation in the market, and the government can't cover it up, then this circuit will be interrupted-1967-1982 was the fifteen years when inflation raged in the United States, during which U.S. stocks fell all the way.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a914def3bacf6418e104839aa626d8b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is slight inflation under official control good for the stock market to rise, while severe inflation causes the stock market to fall?</p><p>Because severe inflation will greatly raise the market interest rate (risk-free rate of return), which on the one hand reduces the relative attractiveness of stock assets, and on the other hand, it will lead many market speculators (investors) to be more willing to make profits by hoarding materials, which is more profitable than stock trading...</p><p>However, after 1982, China and the Soviet Union and Eastern countries successively joined the global trading system. Because of the diffusion of science and technology, the global production capacity was overcapacity. No matter how much money the Federal Reserve printed, everything from energy to metals, from grain to daily consumer goods was sufficient, large and cheap. Coupled with the skillful modification of inflation statistics by the United States, the official inflation rate data of the United States was always kept low.</p><p>The official inflation rate is at a low level, and the \"way of making money\" by hoarding materials and waiting for it to rise has been ended. People are more willing to buy US stocks, which basically have no holding cost but can rise for a long time.</p><p>In addition, in the era of low inflation, because of the long-term stability of the currency value of the US dollar, the wave of globalization brought by it has given American multinational companies the ability to grab profits globally. Now, among the leading technology companies included in the S&P 500 index in the United States, overseas profits usually account for more than 30% of their profits, which greatly improves the EPS of US stocks and thus improves the valuation of US stocks.</p><p>The V-shaped reversal and skyrocketing of U.S. stocks since March 2020 almost perfectly embodies all of the aspects I mentioned earlier.</p><p>When will the U.S. stock bubble really burst?</p><p>Either, inflation strikes, and the risk-free interest rate in the market is continuously raised;</p><p>Either, the debt of the corporate sector or household sector in the United States is too high, and the repayment ability is in crisis, and the Federal Reserve stops printing money for bailout, allowing the market to adjust normally;</p><p>Another possibility is that the global credit currency system with the US dollar as the core collapses, and everyone will no longer believe in the value of the US dollar, and everything will be Over.</p><p>In short, for a long time, as long as the real inflation can't rise, as long as the people believe in the official inflation data, as long as the government is willing to maintain the debt bubble, and as long as the central bank can continue to print money, the prices of assets such as U.S. stocks and China Real Estate can be pushed up almost indefinitely.</p><p>That's the reality.</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom U.S. stocks to Zhongfang, when will the bubble burst?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财主家的余粮</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On this earth, there is probably no traditional asset class stronger than the US stock market.</p><p>The following picture shows the point changes of the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks from January 1901 to now, which is divided into two types: inflation-adjusted price index and real-time price index:</p><p>If you look at real-time index prices, since the United States entered World War II, in addition to experiencing several deepest corrections of about 50%, U.S. stocks have experienced a long bull market for a full 80 years;</p><p>Judging from the inflation-adjusted index price, the bull market in the United States started in mid-1982. So far, it has continued to rise for nearly 40 years as a whole-during which it only experienced the stock market crash in 1987, the burst of the technology stock bubble in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. That is to say, it will take almost 10 years for U.S. stocks to rise before they will experience a decent adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c6913fd0576f293a7c91a7cff442b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2017, because the price of U.S. stocks has repeatedly hit new highs, especially from the periodic P/E valuation (CAPE, also known as Shiller PE), which is extremely accurate to judge the highs and lows of U.S. stocks in the past 150 years, the valuation of U.S. stocks is second only to the technology stock bubble in 2000 and higher than the stock market bubble in 1929...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16577af008708667790865ac954a024\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Not only that, even with the so-called \"Buffett index\", US stocks are ridiculously expensive: it is generally believed that the total market value/GDP of US stocks should be 70-100% as a reasonable valuation, and more than 120% is overvalued. Since 2017, Buffett's index has exceeded 130% and continues to be maintained.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79280cb5512f0a8d15fb0895b452178\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the U.S. stock market has been strong until the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, when it experienced a relatively deep adjustment-but this adjustment was much shorter than the stock market crash in 1987 (adjusted for 4 months). It fell to the lowest point within one month in March, and then quickly achieved a V-shaped reversal, rising until today...</p><p>Today, the cyclical P/E of U.S. stocks has reached 38, and Buffett's index has broken through the 200% horizon.</p><p>Why can US stocks be so expensive now, and they can still stay unfallen?</p><p>Because —</p><p><b>P/E is an indicator of the past, while the price of U.S. stocks is an expectation of the future.</b></p><p>Affected by the epidemic, the 2020 S&P 500<b>Earnings per share</b>(EPS) is only $96.5, but in the fourth quarter of last year, the EPS of U.S. stocks has rebounded rapidly. According to the latest general forecast of major investment banks, the EPS of U.S. stocks S&P 500 can basically double that of 2020 throughout 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ae082e5e8f0faa991647f33a7ed7d6\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the traditional PE (P/E), the valuation of US stocks is as high as 45.48 times. However, according to the EPS analysis of US stocks generally predicted by investment banks, if the current S&P point remains unchanged, the valuation of S&P 500 will drop to 23 times (index point/EPS = PE) by next year, which is a very reasonable valuation.</p><p>If the annual EPS (or expected EPS) after six months is used to value US stocks, the valuation of US stocks has actually been very stable in the past seven years:<b>Basically between 20-25 times</b>(See image below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6e9726f4b7e2b78a635a92511bdca8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Description: The PE valuation since 2021 is calculated according to the 2021 EPS forecast by major investment banks.</p><p>According to this picture, only from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, because the market did not expect the impact of the economic recession and the COVID-19 epidemic on the expected PE, it seemed overestimated. In the past seven years, if the abnormal data from July 2019 to June 2020 were not considered, the valuation of the S&P 500 index, with the highest of 24.3 and the lowest of 19.4, fluctuated in the narrow range of 20-23 for most of the time.</p><p>Observing the valuation of U.S. stocks by expecting EPS, the market is simply too rational.</p><p>Therefore, fundamentally speaking, the valuation of U.S. stocks is basically driven by the expected EPS. Because the expected EPS rises or falls sharply, the S&P index rises or falls sharply, but the expected valuation remains basically stable.</p><p>What is expected?</p><p>The essence of expectation is that the market believes in a set of stories and a narrative logic.</p><p>This is exactly the story told by Dharma Dahlan-a set of logic of valuation. Six months ago, I used this method to value U.S. stocks. Assuming that the EPS of S&P 500 can recover to $120 in 2021, and then increase by 5% every year,... Finally, adding the EPS in 21 years, it is concluded that the reasonable price of S&P 500 at that time should be around 3,800...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13b1a5a5dfa234b7298250515e237e7\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>See Article: What Should Be a Reasonable Price for U.S. Stocks in 2021?</p><p>Obviously, at that time, I seriously underestimated the ability of large technology companies in the United States to recover profitability from the epidemic. The EPS I expected of $120 was 1/3 lower than the EPS of about $185 predicted by the current market... If the above valuation logic is also followed, the reasonable price of the S&P 500 index can be as high as more than 5,000 points.</p><p>Of course, Damodalan also said that because the world is changing at any time, the valuation of stocks should also be dynamic. There should be a feedback loop, which can adjust your valuation at any time because of the changes of the company itself and the environment, or even overturn the whole story.</p><p>In our limited life experience, what we see is that the U.S. stock market is a long bull. Even if it is a little adjusted in the short term, it will quickly recover and rise to a higher level. However, if you look at U.S. stocks from a longer history, this is not the case.</p><p>According to the first chart of this article, calculated in nominal terms, after the U.S. stock market crash in 1929, it took a quarter of a century before the U.S. stock market rose back to the high point of the original crash.</p><p>In terms of inflation-adjusted prices, from the high of the stock market in 1969 to the middle of 1982, U.S. stocks fell all the way for 13 years, falling for 13 consecutive years, and then experienced another 12 years before rising back to the high of 1969 in 1994. After all, it was also a quarter of a century.</p><p>Since 1982, the United States has been able to maintain a long bull for nearly 40 years, and every time the U.S. stock market plummets, there will always be a violent V-shaped reversal. The most critical reason lies in the success of the Federal Reserve's money printing and official inflation control.</p><p>As we all know, since 1982, every time the U.S. stock market has suffered a plunge, the Federal Reserve has always sacrificed their loose money method, desperately printed money, tried hard to lower the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate, hindered the normal clearing of the market and the survival of the fittest, and thus prevented the price of U.S. stocks from falling.</p><p>Emergency rate cuts in 1987;</p><p>Continued interest rate cuts in 2001;</p><p>Cut interest rates to 0 in 2008 and start QE;</p><p>Cut interest rates to 0 in 2020 to open unlimited Q;</p><p>……</p><p>The Federal Reserve's printing of money and lowering interest rates have hindered the normal adjustment of U.S. stocks in at least three ways.</p><p>1) Printing money to buy Treasury Bond depresses the risk-free rate of return in the market and enhances the attractiveness of stocks relative to Treasury Bond.</p><p>2) Lower market interest rates and let savers in the market subsidize borrowers. Listed companies in U.S. stocks can raise funds in the global market at a lower cost, essentially becoming loan sharks.</p><p>3) There is more money in the market. Those large companies listed in U.S. stocks can take advantage of their credit advantages and monopoly position to grab more profits from the market.</p><p>US stocks are like this, but China's real estate is not like this?</p><p>In 2008 and 2014, China's real estate prices were slightly adjusted at that time. The government immediately offered money printing, cut interest rates to encourage people to take out loans to buy houses, and dramatically expanded the scale of credit. As a result, can these assets not become the assets of \"long cattle\"?</p><p>Of course, if money printing causes severe inflation in the market, and the government can't cover it up, then this circuit will be interrupted-1967-1982 was the fifteen years when inflation raged in the United States, during which U.S. stocks fell all the way.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a914def3bacf6418e104839aa626d8b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is slight inflation under official control good for the stock market to rise, while severe inflation causes the stock market to fall?</p><p>Because severe inflation will greatly raise the market interest rate (risk-free rate of return), which on the one hand reduces the relative attractiveness of stock assets, and on the other hand, it will lead many market speculators (investors) to be more willing to make profits by hoarding materials, which is more profitable than stock trading...</p><p>However, after 1982, China and the Soviet Union and Eastern countries successively joined the global trading system. Because of the diffusion of science and technology, the global production capacity was overcapacity. No matter how much money the Federal Reserve printed, everything from energy to metals, from grain to daily consumer goods was sufficient, large and cheap. Coupled with the skillful modification of inflation statistics by the United States, the official inflation rate data of the United States was always kept low.</p><p>The official inflation rate is at a low level, and the \"way of making money\" by hoarding materials and waiting for it to rise has been ended. People are more willing to buy US stocks, which basically have no holding cost but can rise for a long time.</p><p>In addition, in the era of low inflation, because of the long-term stability of the currency value of the US dollar, the wave of globalization brought by it has given American multinational companies the ability to grab profits globally. Now, among the leading technology companies included in the S&P 500 index in the United States, overseas profits usually account for more than 30% of their profits, which greatly improves the EPS of US stocks and thus improves the valuation of US stocks.</p><p>The V-shaped reversal and skyrocketing of U.S. stocks since March 2020 almost perfectly embodies all of the aspects I mentioned earlier.</p><p>When will the U.S. stock bubble really burst?</p><p>Either, inflation strikes, and the risk-free interest rate in the market is continuously raised;</p><p>Either, the debt of the corporate sector or household sector in the United States is too high, and the repayment ability is in crisis, and the Federal Reserve stops printing money for bailout, allowing the market to adjust normally;</p><p>Another possibility is that the global credit currency system with the US dollar as the core collapses, and everyone will no longer believe in the value of the US dollar, and everything will be Over.</p><p>In short, for a long time, as long as the real inflation can't rise, as long as the people believe in the official inflation data, as long as the government is willing to maintain the debt bubble, and as long as the central bank can continue to print money, the prices of assets such as U.S. stocks and China Real Estate can be pushed up almost indefinitely.</p><p>That's the reality.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA\">财主家的余粮</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174566320","content_text":"这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价格来看，自美国参加第二次世界大战以来，除了经历过几次最深约50%的调整之外，美股经历了整整80年的长期牛市；\n从经通货膨胀调整的指数价格来看，美国的牛市则是从1982年年中开始启动，迄今为止，整体上在接近40年时间持续上涨——期间仅经历过1987年股灾、2000年科技股泡沫破裂、2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情来袭，也就是说，美股差不多要涨10年才会经历一次像样的调整。\n\n自2017年开始，因为美股价格屡创新高，特别是从用于判断过去150年美股的高低点都极为准确的周期市盈率估值（CAPE，也称为Shiller PE）来看，美股的估值之贵，仅次于2000年的科技股泡沫期间，高于1929年的股市泡沫期……\n\n不仅如此，即便用所谓的“巴菲特指标”来看，美股也是贵得离谱：一般认为，美股总市值/GDP应该在70-100%为合理估值，超过120%即为高估，从2017年开始，巴菲特指标就已经超过130%并持续保持。\n\n但是，美股一直坚挺，直到2020年新冠疫情，才经历了一次比较深度的调整——但这次的调整比1987年的股灾时间（调整了4个月时间）还要短得多，在3月份一个月之内跌到最低点，然后迅速实现了V型反转，一直涨到今天……\n到了今天，美股的周期市盈率已经高达38，而巴菲特指标更是突破200%的天际。\n为什么现在的美股能够这么贵，而且还能保持不跌？\n因为——\n市盈率是看过去的指标，而美股的价格却是看未来的预期。\n受疫情影响，2020年标普500的每股盈利（EPS）仅为96.5美元，但去年第四季度，美股的EPS已经迅速回升，按照各大投资银行最新的普遍预测，2021年一整年，美股标普500的EPS基本可以实现比2020年接近翻倍。\n\n按照传统的PE（市盈率）来对美股估值，如今4266点的标普500指数，估值高达45.48倍，但如果按照投资银行普遍预测的美股EPS分析，如果现在的标普点位不变，到了明年，标普500的估值将降至（指数点位/EPS=PE）23倍，这是很合理的估值。\n如果用6个月之后的年度EPS（或者说叫做预期EPS）来为美股估值，最近7年来，美股的估值其实稳定得很：基本在20-25倍之间（见下图）。\n\n说明：2021年以来的PE估值，根据各大投行所预测的2021年EPS进行计算。\n根据这幅图，只有在2019年底到2020年初，因为市场没有预计到经济衰退叠加新冠疫情对于预期PE的影响，所以才显得高估——在过去的7年里，如果不考虑2019年7月-2020年6月的异常数据，标普500指数的估值，最高在24.3，最低在19.4，绝大部分时间都在20-23的狭窄区间内波动。\n通过预期EPS来观察美股估值，市场简直太理性了。\n所以，从根本上来说，美股的估值基本是由预期EPS所驱动的，因为预期EPS大涨或大跌，标普指数就随之大涨或大跌，但预期估值却基本维持稳定。\n预期是什么？\n预期的本质，是市场相信一套故事，一种叙事逻辑。\n这，正是达摩-达兰所讲述的故事-估值的一套逻辑。半年前，我还用这一套方法来给美股估值，假定2021年标普500的EPS能够恢复到120美元，此后每年增长5%，……，最后，将21年的EPS相加，得出来标普500当时的合理价位应在3800点附近……\n\n参见文章：2021年，美股的合理价位应该是多少？\n显然，当时的我，严重低估了美国的大型科技公司从疫情中恢复盈利的能力，我预计的120美元EPS，相比当前市场所预测的185美元左右的EPS，足足低了1/3……如果同样按照上述估值逻辑，标普500指数的合理价位可以高至5000点以上。\n当然，达摩达兰也说了，因为世界随时在变化，股票的估值也应该是动态的，要有一个反馈回路，随时因为公司本身以及环境的变化，调整你的估值，甚至推翻整个故事。\n在我们有限的人生经历中，看到的就是美股长牛，即便是短期有点儿调整，很快就恢复元气并且上涨到更高。然而，如果从更长的历史来观察美股，事实并非如此。\n根据本文第一幅图表，以名义价格来计算，1929年美股崩盘之后，此后过了1/4个世纪，美股才涨回到当初崩盘的高点。\n以经通胀调整后的价格来看，从1969年的股市高位跌下来之后，到1982年年中，在13年的时间里，美股都在一路下跌，连跌13年，然后又经历了12年时间，到1994年才涨回到1969年的高位。算下来，同样是经历了1/4个世纪。\n1982年以来，美国能够保持近40年的长牛，而且每一次美股暴跌之后，总是会出现暴力的V型反转，最关键的原因，在于美联储的印钞和官方控制通胀的成功。\n众所周知，1982年迄今，每一次美股遭遇暴跌的时候，美联储总是会祭出他们的宽松货币大法，拼命印钞，使劲儿压低名义利率和实际利率，阻碍市场正常出清和优胜劣汰，进而托住了美股的价格不让它下跌。\n1987年紧急降息；\n2001年持续降息；\n2008年降息至0，开启QE；\n2020年降息至0，开启无限Q；\n……\n美联储印钞和压低利率，至少从三个方面阻碍了美股的正常调整。\n1）印钞购买国债，压低了市场上的无风险收益率，提升了股票相对于国债的吸引力。\n2）压低市场利率，让市场上的储蓄者来补贴借债者，美股的上市公司，能够以更低成本在全球市场融资，本质上变成了放高利贷者。\n3）市场上的钱变多了，美股那些上市的大公司，可以利用自身的信用优势和垄断地位，从市场攫取更多的利润。\n美股如此，中国房地产又何尝不是如此？\n2008年和2014年，中国的房地产价格当时略有调整，政府立即祭出印钞大法，又是降息鼓励民众贷款买房，又是急剧扩大信贷规模，如此一来，这些资产能不成为“长牛”的资产么？\n当然，如果印钞导致市场上出现严重的通货膨胀，政府掩盖不住，那么这个回路就会被打断——1967-1982年正是美国通货膨胀肆虐的15年，这期间美股都是在一路下跌。\n\n为什么官方控制下的轻微通胀有利于股市上涨，而严重通胀，则会导致股市下跌呢？\n因为，严重的通货膨胀会大大抬高市场利率（无风险收益率），这一方面降低了股票资产的相对吸引力，另一方面还会导致很多市场投机者（投资者）更愿意通过囤积物资而获利，这比炒股更赚……\n然而，1982年之后，中国和苏东国家先后加入全球贸易体系，因为科技的扩散，全球的生产能力过剩，无论美联储再怎么印钞，从能源到金属，从粮食到日常消费品，全部都供应充足、大量且廉价，再加上美国巧妙地修改通胀统计方式，这让美国官方通胀率数据始终保持在低位。\n官方通胀率处于低位，通过囤积物资等待上涨的“赚钱方式”被终结，人们更愿意去购买美股这种基本没有持有成本却能够长期上涨的“资产”。\n另外，在低通胀时代，因为美元货币价值的长期稳定，其带来的全球化浪潮，给了美国跨国公司全球攫取利润的能力，现在美国标普500指数所包含的头部科技公司中，海外盈利通常都占了其盈利的30%以上，这大大提升了美股的EPS，进而提升了美股的估值。\n2020年3月份以来的美股V型反转并暴涨，几乎完美地体现了我前面提到的所有方面。\n什么时候美股泡沫才会真正破裂？\n要么，是通货膨胀来袭，市场无风险利率被持续抬高；\n要么，是美国的企业部门或者家庭部门的债务太高，偿还能力出现危机，而美联储停止印钞救助，让市场正常调整；\n还有一种可能，就是以美元为核心的全球信用货币体系崩塌，大家再也不相信美元的价值，一切就会Over。\n总之，从相当长的一个时期来看，只要真实的通货膨胀不起来，只要民众相信官方的通货膨胀数据，只要政府愿意维持债务泡沫，只要央行可以持续印钞，美股以及中房这样的资产，价格都可以被近乎无限地推高。\n这才是现实。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103918980,"gmtCreate":1619742660740,"gmtModify":1704271639135,"author":{"id":"3567126093202955","authorId":"3567126093202955","name":"Leongzai89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e4b1217644af0f56f8f18a459c6af9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567126093202955","idStr":"3567126093202955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103918980","repostId":"2131531290","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}