Profile - To The Moon

Leongzai89

Posts · 9Posts · 9
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- Leongzai89Leongzai89
  ·2021-09-11
  Good
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.53K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- Leongzai89Leongzai89
  ·2021-06-28
  OK
  From US stocks to Chinese real estate, when will the bubble burst?
  这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：如果从实时指数价
  From US stocks to Chinese real estate, when will the bubble burst?
  3.61K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- Leongzai89Leongzai89
  ·2021-04-30
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.30K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3567126093202955","uuid":"3567126093202955","gmtCreate":1604033559844,"gmtModify":1706620738259,"name":"Leongzai89","pinyin":"leongzai89","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e4b1217644af0f56f8f18a459c6af9","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":24,"tweetSize":9,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":3,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.31%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":881606007,"gmtCreate":1631327520209,"gmtModify":1676530529679,"author":{"id":"3567126093202955","authorId":"3567126093202955","name":"Leongzai89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e4b1217644af0f56f8f18a459c6af9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567126093202955","idStr":"3567126093202955"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881606007","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127218125,"gmtCreate":1624850581967,"gmtModify":1703846178452,"author":{"id":"3567126093202955","authorId":"3567126093202955","name":"Leongzai89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e4b1217644af0f56f8f18a459c6af9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567126093202955","idStr":"3567126093202955"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127218125","repostId":"1174566320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174566320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174566320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"From US stocks to Chinese real estate, when will the bubble burst?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174566320","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价","content":"<p>There is probably no traditional asset class on this planet that is more resilient than the US stock market.</p><p>The chart below shows the changes in the S&P 500 index from January 1901 to the present, divided into two types: an inflation-adjusted price index and a real-time price index:</p><p>Looking at real-time index prices, since the United States entered World War II, apart from a few corrections as deep as about 50%, the US stock market has experienced a long bull market for 80 years.</p><p>Looking at inflation-adjusted index prices, the US bull market began in mid-1982 and has continued to rise for nearly 40 years. During this period, only the 1987 stock market crash, the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic occurred. In other words, it takes about 10 years for US stocks to rise before they experience a significant correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c6913fd0576f293a7c91a7cff442b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2017, because US stock prices have repeatedly hit new highs, especially considering the Cyclical P/E Valuation (CAPE, also known as Shiller PE), which is extremely accurate in judging the highs and lows of US stocks over the past 150 years, the valuation of US stocks is second only to the tech bubble of 2000 and higher than the stock market bubble of 1929...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16577af008708667790865ac954a024\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, even using the so-called \"Buffett indicator\", US stocks are ridiculously expensive: it is generally believed that the total market capitalization/GDP of US stocks should be between 70-100% for a reasonable valuation, and more than 120% for an overvaluation. Since 2017, the Buffett indicator has exceeded 130% and has continued to do so.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79280cb5512f0a8d15fb0895b452178\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the US stock market remained strong until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when it experienced a relatively deep correction—but this correction was much shorter than the 1987 stock market crash (which lasted four months). It fell to its lowest point within a month in March, and then quickly achieved a V-shaped reversal, which has continued to rise to this day…</p><p>Today, the cyclical P/E of US stocks has reached 38, and the Buffett indicator has broken through the 200% sky.</p><p>Why are US stocks so expensive right now, and yet they haven't fallen?</p><p>Because—</p><p><b>P/E is a past indicator, while US stock prices are based on future expectations.</b></p><p>Due to the impact of the pandemic, the S&P 500 in 2020<b>EARNINGS PER</b>The EPS of the US stock market was only $96.50, but in the fourth quarter of last year, the EPS of the US stock market rebounded rapidly. According to the latest general forecasts of major investment banks, the EPS of the US S&P 500 stock market can basically double that of 2020 in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ae082e5e8f0faa991647f33a7ed7d6\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the traditional PE (P/E) method, the S&P 500 index, currently at 4266 points, has a valuation of 45.48 times. However, if we analyze the EPS of US stocks generally predicted by investment banks, if the current S&P 500 level remains unchanged, the valuation of the S&P 500 will drop to 23 times (index level/EPS=PE) by next year, which is a very reasonable valuation.</p><p>If we use annual EPS (or expected EPS) six months from now to value US stocks, the valuation of US stocks has actually been very stable over the past seven years:<b>Basically between 20-25 times</b>(See figure below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6e9726f4b7e2b78a635a92511bdca8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: PE valuations since 2021 are calculated based on the 2021 EPS forecasts of major investment banks.</p><p>According to this chart, it was only from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020 that the market appeared overvalued because it did not anticipate the impact of the economic recession and the COVID-19 pandemic on the expected PE ratio. Over the past seven years, if we do not consider the abnormal data from July 2019 to June 2020, the valuation of the S&P 500 index ranged from a high of 24.3 to a low of 19.4, fluctuating within a narrow range of 20-23 for most of the time.</p><p>The market is far too rational to observe US stock valuations based on expected EPS.</p><p>Therefore, fundamentally, the valuation of US stocks is basically driven by expected EPS, because when expected EPS rises or falls sharply, the S&P 500 index rises or falls sharply accordingly, but the expected valuation remains basically stable.</p><p>What are the expectations?</p><p>The essence of expectations is that the market believes in a story, a narrative logic.</p><p>This is precisely the story told by Dharma-Dharan—the logic behind valuation. Six months ago, I used this method to value US stocks, assuming that the S&P 500's EPS could recover to $120 in 2021 and grow by 5% annually thereafter... Finally, by adding up the EPS for 2021, I arrived at a reasonable price for the S&P 500 at that time around 3800 points...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13b1a5a5dfa234b7298250515e237e7\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>See article: What should be a reasonable price level for US stocks in 2021?</p><p>Clearly, at the time, I seriously underestimated the ability of large American technology companies to recover from the pandemic. My expected EPS of $120 was a full third lower than the current market forecast of around $185... If we follow the same valuation logic, the reasonable price of the S&P 500 index could reach more than 5,000 points.</p><p>Of course, Damodaran also said that because the world is constantly changing, stock valuations should also be dynamic. There should be a feedback loop to adjust your valuation at any time due to changes in the company itself and the environment, or even overturn the entire story.</p><p>In our limited life experiences, we have seen a long bull market in the US stock market. Even if there is a short-term correction, it will quickly recover and rise to even higher levels. However, if we look at the US stock market from a longer historical perspective, this is not the case.</p><p>According to the first chart in this article, calculated at nominal prices, it took a quarter of a century after the US stock market crash in 1929 for the US stock market to rise back to the high point of the crash.</p><p>Looking at inflation-adjusted prices, from the stock market high in 1969 to mid-1982, the US stock market continued to decline for 13 consecutive years, and then for another 12 years before finally returning to the high level of 1969 in 1994. In total, it has also taken a quarter of a century.</p><p>Since 1982, the United States has been able to maintain a long bull market for nearly 40 years, and each stock market crash is followed by a violent V-shaped reversal. The most crucial reason is the Federal Reserve's success in printing money and controlling inflation.</p><p>As is well known, since 1982, every time the US stock market has experienced a sharp drop, the Federal Reserve has always resorted to its loose monetary policy, printing money desperately to suppress nominal and real interest rates, hinder the normal clearing of the market and the survival of the fittest, and thus prop up the price of US stocks from falling.</p><p>Emergency interest rate cuts in 1987;</p><p>Interest rate cuts continued in 2001;</p><p>In 2008, interest rates were cut to 0, and QE was initiated;</p><p>In 2020, interest rates were cut to zero, and unlimited Q was initiated;</p><p>……</p><p>The Federal Reserve's money printing and lowering of interest rates have hindered the normal adjustment of US stocks in at least three ways.</p><p>1) Printing money to buy Treasury Bond lowers the risk-free rate of return in the market and increases the attractiveness of stocks relative to Treasury Bond.</p><p>2) By lowering market interest rates and allowing savers in the market to subsidize borrowers, US-listed companies can raise funds in the global market at a lower cost, essentially becoming usurers.</p><p>3) With more money in the market, large companies listed on the US stock exchange can leverage their credit advantages and monopolistic position to extract more profits from the market.</p><p>If this is true for the US stock market, isn't it also true for the Chinese real estate market?</p><p>In 2008 and 2014, China's real estate prices underwent a slight adjustment. The government immediately launched a money printing campaign, lowered interest rates to encourage people to take out loans to buy houses, and rapidly expanded the scale of credit. In such a situation, how could these assets not become assets for a \"long bull market\"?</p><p>Of course, if money printing causes severe inflation in the market and the government cannot cover it up, then this cycle will be interrupted—1967-1982 was the 15 years of rampant inflation in the United States, during which the US stock market fell all the way down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a914def3bacf6418e104839aa626d8b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why does mild inflation under official control help the stock market rise, while severe inflation causes the stock market to fall?</p><p>Because severe inflation significantly raises market interest rates (risk-free rates of return), this reduces the relative attractiveness of stock assets and leads many market speculators (investors) to be more willing to profit by hoarding goods, which is more profitable than stock trading...</p><p>However, after 1982, China and the Soviet and Eastern European countries successively joined the global trading system. Due to the diffusion of technology, there was a global overcapacity. No matter how much money the Federal Reserve printed, everything from energy to metals, from food to daily consumer goods was sufficiently supplied, in large quantities, and cheaply. In addition, the United States cleverly modified its inflation statistics methods, which kept the official US inflation rate data at a low level.</p><p>With official inflation at a low level, the \"money-making method\" of hoarding goods and waiting for prices to rise has come to an end. People are more willing to buy US stocks, an \"asset\" that has virtually no holding costs but can rise in the long term.</p><p>In addition, in the era of low inflation, due to the long-term stability of the value of the US dollar, the resulting wave of globalization has given American multinational corporations the ability to seize profits globally. Now, among the leading technology companies included in the US S&P 500 index, overseas profits usually account for more than 30% of their profits, which has greatly increased the EPS of US stocks and thus the valuation of US stocks.</p><p>The V-shaped reversal and surge in US stocks since March 2020 almost perfectly reflects all the aspects I mentioned earlier.</p><p>When will the US stock market bubble truly burst?</p><p>Alternatively, inflation has struck, causing the market's risk-free interest rate to continue to rise;</p><p>Either the debt of the US corporate or household sectors is too high, creating a repayment crisis, and the Federal Reserve has stopped printing money to provide bailouts, allowing the market to adjust normally.</p><p>Another possibility is that the global fiat currency system centered on the US dollar will collapse, and people will no longer believe in the value of the US dollar, and everything will be Over.</p><p>In short, over a considerable period of time, as long as real inflation does not rise, as long as the public believes in official inflation data, as long as the government is willing to maintain the debt bubble, and as long as the central bank can continue to print money, the prices of assets such as US stocks and China Real Estate can be pushed up almost infinitely.</p><p>This is the reality.</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>From US stocks to Chinese real estate, when will the bubble burst?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom US stocks to Chinese real estate, when will the bubble burst?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财主家的余粮</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is probably no traditional asset class on this planet that is more resilient than the US stock market.</p><p>The chart below shows the changes in the S&P 500 index from January 1901 to the present, divided into two types: an inflation-adjusted price index and a real-time price index:</p><p>Looking at real-time index prices, since the United States entered World War II, apart from a few corrections as deep as about 50%, the US stock market has experienced a long bull market for 80 years.</p><p>Looking at inflation-adjusted index prices, the US bull market began in mid-1982 and has continued to rise for nearly 40 years. During this period, only the 1987 stock market crash, the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic occurred. In other words, it takes about 10 years for US stocks to rise before they experience a significant correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c6913fd0576f293a7c91a7cff442b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2017, because US stock prices have repeatedly hit new highs, especially considering the Cyclical P/E Valuation (CAPE, also known as Shiller PE), which is extremely accurate in judging the highs and lows of US stocks over the past 150 years, the valuation of US stocks is second only to the tech bubble of 2000 and higher than the stock market bubble of 1929...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16577af008708667790865ac954a024\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, even using the so-called \"Buffett indicator\", US stocks are ridiculously expensive: it is generally believed that the total market capitalization/GDP of US stocks should be between 70-100% for a reasonable valuation, and more than 120% for an overvaluation. Since 2017, the Buffett indicator has exceeded 130% and has continued to do so.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79280cb5512f0a8d15fb0895b452178\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the US stock market remained strong until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when it experienced a relatively deep correction—but this correction was much shorter than the 1987 stock market crash (which lasted four months). It fell to its lowest point within a month in March, and then quickly achieved a V-shaped reversal, which has continued to rise to this day…</p><p>Today, the cyclical P/E of US stocks has reached 38, and the Buffett indicator has broken through the 200% sky.</p><p>Why are US stocks so expensive right now, and yet they haven't fallen?</p><p>Because—</p><p><b>P/E is a past indicator, while US stock prices are based on future expectations.</b></p><p>Due to the impact of the pandemic, the S&P 500 in 2020<b>EARNINGS PER</b>The EPS of the US stock market was only $96.50, but in the fourth quarter of last year, the EPS of the US stock market rebounded rapidly. According to the latest general forecasts of major investment banks, the EPS of the US S&P 500 stock market can basically double that of 2020 in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ae082e5e8f0faa991647f33a7ed7d6\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the traditional PE (P/E) method, the S&P 500 index, currently at 4266 points, has a valuation of 45.48 times. However, if we analyze the EPS of US stocks generally predicted by investment banks, if the current S&P 500 level remains unchanged, the valuation of the S&P 500 will drop to 23 times (index level/EPS=PE) by next year, which is a very reasonable valuation.</p><p>If we use annual EPS (or expected EPS) six months from now to value US stocks, the valuation of US stocks has actually been very stable over the past seven years:<b>Basically between 20-25 times</b>(See figure below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6e9726f4b7e2b78a635a92511bdca8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: PE valuations since 2021 are calculated based on the 2021 EPS forecasts of major investment banks.</p><p>According to this chart, it was only from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020 that the market appeared overvalued because it did not anticipate the impact of the economic recession and the COVID-19 pandemic on the expected PE ratio. Over the past seven years, if we do not consider the abnormal data from July 2019 to June 2020, the valuation of the S&P 500 index ranged from a high of 24.3 to a low of 19.4, fluctuating within a narrow range of 20-23 for most of the time.</p><p>The market is far too rational to observe US stock valuations based on expected EPS.</p><p>Therefore, fundamentally, the valuation of US stocks is basically driven by expected EPS, because when expected EPS rises or falls sharply, the S&P 500 index rises or falls sharply accordingly, but the expected valuation remains basically stable.</p><p>What are the expectations?</p><p>The essence of expectations is that the market believes in a story, a narrative logic.</p><p>This is precisely the story told by Dharma-Dharan—the logic behind valuation. Six months ago, I used this method to value US stocks, assuming that the S&P 500's EPS could recover to $120 in 2021 and grow by 5% annually thereafter... Finally, by adding up the EPS for 2021, I arrived at a reasonable price for the S&P 500 at that time around 3800 points...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13b1a5a5dfa234b7298250515e237e7\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>See article: What should be a reasonable price level for US stocks in 2021?</p><p>Clearly, at the time, I seriously underestimated the ability of large American technology companies to recover from the pandemic. My expected EPS of $120 was a full third lower than the current market forecast of around $185... If we follow the same valuation logic, the reasonable price of the S&P 500 index could reach more than 5,000 points.</p><p>Of course, Damodaran also said that because the world is constantly changing, stock valuations should also be dynamic. There should be a feedback loop to adjust your valuation at any time due to changes in the company itself and the environment, or even overturn the entire story.</p><p>In our limited life experiences, we have seen a long bull market in the US stock market. Even if there is a short-term correction, it will quickly recover and rise to even higher levels. However, if we look at the US stock market from a longer historical perspective, this is not the case.</p><p>According to the first chart in this article, calculated at nominal prices, it took a quarter of a century after the US stock market crash in 1929 for the US stock market to rise back to the high point of the crash.</p><p>Looking at inflation-adjusted prices, from the stock market high in 1969 to mid-1982, the US stock market continued to decline for 13 consecutive years, and then for another 12 years before finally returning to the high level of 1969 in 1994. In total, it has also taken a quarter of a century.</p><p>Since 1982, the United States has been able to maintain a long bull market for nearly 40 years, and each stock market crash is followed by a violent V-shaped reversal. The most crucial reason is the Federal Reserve's success in printing money and controlling inflation.</p><p>As is well known, since 1982, every time the US stock market has experienced a sharp drop, the Federal Reserve has always resorted to its loose monetary policy, printing money desperately to suppress nominal and real interest rates, hinder the normal clearing of the market and the survival of the fittest, and thus prop up the price of US stocks from falling.</p><p>Emergency interest rate cuts in 1987;</p><p>Interest rate cuts continued in 2001;</p><p>In 2008, interest rates were cut to 0, and QE was initiated;</p><p>In 2020, interest rates were cut to zero, and unlimited Q was initiated;</p><p>……</p><p>The Federal Reserve's money printing and lowering of interest rates have hindered the normal adjustment of US stocks in at least three ways.</p><p>1) Printing money to buy Treasury Bond lowers the risk-free rate of return in the market and increases the attractiveness of stocks relative to Treasury Bond.</p><p>2) By lowering market interest rates and allowing savers in the market to subsidize borrowers, US-listed companies can raise funds in the global market at a lower cost, essentially becoming usurers.</p><p>3) With more money in the market, large companies listed on the US stock exchange can leverage their credit advantages and monopolistic position to extract more profits from the market.</p><p>If this is true for the US stock market, isn't it also true for the Chinese real estate market?</p><p>In 2008 and 2014, China's real estate prices underwent a slight adjustment. The government immediately launched a money printing campaign, lowered interest rates to encourage people to take out loans to buy houses, and rapidly expanded the scale of credit. In such a situation, how could these assets not become assets for a \"long bull market\"?</p><p>Of course, if money printing causes severe inflation in the market and the government cannot cover it up, then this cycle will be interrupted—1967-1982 was the 15 years of rampant inflation in the United States, during which the US stock market fell all the way down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a914def3bacf6418e104839aa626d8b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why does mild inflation under official control help the stock market rise, while severe inflation causes the stock market to fall?</p><p>Because severe inflation significantly raises market interest rates (risk-free rates of return), this reduces the relative attractiveness of stock assets and leads many market speculators (investors) to be more willing to profit by hoarding goods, which is more profitable than stock trading...</p><p>However, after 1982, China and the Soviet and Eastern European countries successively joined the global trading system. Due to the diffusion of technology, there was a global overcapacity. No matter how much money the Federal Reserve printed, everything from energy to metals, from food to daily consumer goods was sufficiently supplied, in large quantities, and cheaply. In addition, the United States cleverly modified its inflation statistics methods, which kept the official US inflation rate data at a low level.</p><p>With official inflation at a low level, the \"money-making method\" of hoarding goods and waiting for prices to rise has come to an end. People are more willing to buy US stocks, an \"asset\" that has virtually no holding costs but can rise in the long term.</p><p>In addition, in the era of low inflation, due to the long-term stability of the value of the US dollar, the resulting wave of globalization has given American multinational corporations the ability to seize profits globally. Now, among the leading technology companies included in the US S&P 500 index, overseas profits usually account for more than 30% of their profits, which has greatly increased the EPS of US stocks and thus the valuation of US stocks.</p><p>The V-shaped reversal and surge in US stocks since March 2020 almost perfectly reflects all the aspects I mentioned earlier.</p><p>When will the US stock market bubble truly burst?</p><p>Alternatively, inflation has struck, causing the market's risk-free interest rate to continue to rise;</p><p>Either the debt of the US corporate or household sectors is too high, creating a repayment crisis, and the Federal Reserve has stopped printing money to provide bailouts, allowing the market to adjust normally.</p><p>Another possibility is that the global fiat currency system centered on the US dollar will collapse, and people will no longer believe in the value of the US dollar, and everything will be Over.</p><p>In short, over a considerable period of time, as long as real inflation does not rise, as long as the public believes in official inflation data, as long as the government is willing to maintain the debt bubble, and as long as the central bank can continue to print money, the prices of assets such as US stocks and China Real Estate can be pushed up almost infinitely.</p><p>This is the reality.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA\">财主家的余粮</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174566320","content_text":"这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价格来看，自美国参加第二次世界大战以来，除了经历过几次最深约50%的调整之外，美股经历了整整80年的长期牛市；\n从经通货膨胀调整的指数价格来看，美国的牛市则是从1982年年中开始启动，迄今为止，整体上在接近40年时间持续上涨——期间仅经历过1987年股灾、2000年科技股泡沫破裂、2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情来袭，也就是说，美股差不多要涨10年才会经历一次像样的调整。\n\n自2017年开始，因为美股价格屡创新高，特别是从用于判断过去150年美股的高低点都极为准确的周期市盈率估值（CAPE，也称为Shiller PE）来看，美股的估值之贵，仅次于2000年的科技股泡沫期间，高于1929年的股市泡沫期……\n\n不仅如此，即便用所谓的“巴菲特指标”来看，美股也是贵得离谱：一般认为，美股总市值/GDP应该在70-100%为合理估值，超过120%即为高估，从2017年开始，巴菲特指标就已经超过130%并持续保持。\n\n但是，美股一直坚挺，直到2020年新冠疫情，才经历了一次比较深度的调整——但这次的调整比1987年的股灾时间（调整了4个月时间）还要短得多，在3月份一个月之内跌到最低点，然后迅速实现了V型反转，一直涨到今天……\n到了今天，美股的周期市盈率已经高达38，而巴菲特指标更是突破200%的天际。\n为什么现在的美股能够这么贵，而且还能保持不跌？\n因为——\n市盈率是看过去的指标，而美股的价格却是看未来的预期。\n受疫情影响，2020年标普500的每股盈利（EPS）仅为96.5美元，但去年第四季度，美股的EPS已经迅速回升，按照各大投资银行最新的普遍预测，2021年一整年，美股标普500的EPS基本可以实现比2020年接近翻倍。\n\n按照传统的PE（市盈率）来对美股估值，如今4266点的标普500指数，估值高达45.48倍，但如果按照投资银行普遍预测的美股EPS分析，如果现在的标普点位不变，到了明年，标普500的估值将降至（指数点位/EPS=PE）23倍，这是很合理的估值。\n如果用6个月之后的年度EPS（或者说叫做预期EPS）来为美股估值，最近7年来，美股的估值其实稳定得很：基本在20-25倍之间（见下图）。\n\n说明：2021年以来的PE估值，根据各大投行所预测的2021年EPS进行计算。\n根据这幅图，只有在2019年底到2020年初，因为市场没有预计到经济衰退叠加新冠疫情对于预期PE的影响，所以才显得高估——在过去的7年里，如果不考虑2019年7月-2020年6月的异常数据，标普500指数的估值，最高在24.3，最低在19.4，绝大部分时间都在20-23的狭窄区间内波动。\n通过预期EPS来观察美股估值，市场简直太理性了。\n所以，从根本上来说，美股的估值基本是由预期EPS所驱动的，因为预期EPS大涨或大跌，标普指数就随之大涨或大跌，但预期估值却基本维持稳定。\n预期是什么？\n预期的本质，是市场相信一套故事，一种叙事逻辑。\n这，正是达摩-达兰所讲述的故事-估值的一套逻辑。半年前，我还用这一套方法来给美股估值，假定2021年标普500的EPS能够恢复到120美元，此后每年增长5%，……，最后，将21年的EPS相加，得出来标普500当时的合理价位应在3800点附近……\n\n参见文章：2021年，美股的合理价位应该是多少？\n显然，当时的我，严重低估了美国的大型科技公司从疫情中恢复盈利的能力，我预计的120美元EPS，相比当前市场所预测的185美元左右的EPS，足足低了1/3……如果同样按照上述估值逻辑，标普500指数的合理价位可以高至5000点以上。\n当然，达摩达兰也说了，因为世界随时在变化，股票的估值也应该是动态的，要有一个反馈回路，随时因为公司本身以及环境的变化，调整你的估值，甚至推翻整个故事。\n在我们有限的人生经历中，看到的就是美股长牛，即便是短期有点儿调整，很快就恢复元气并且上涨到更高。然而，如果从更长的历史来观察美股，事实并非如此。\n根据本文第一幅图表，以名义价格来计算，1929年美股崩盘之后，此后过了1/4个世纪，美股才涨回到当初崩盘的高点。\n以经通胀调整后的价格来看，从1969年的股市高位跌下来之后，到1982年年中，在13年的时间里，美股都在一路下跌，连跌13年，然后又经历了12年时间，到1994年才涨回到1969年的高位。算下来，同样是经历了1/4个世纪。\n1982年以来，美国能够保持近40年的长牛，而且每一次美股暴跌之后，总是会出现暴力的V型反转，最关键的原因，在于美联储的印钞和官方控制通胀的成功。\n众所周知，1982年迄今，每一次美股遭遇暴跌的时候，美联储总是会祭出他们的宽松货币大法，拼命印钞，使劲儿压低名义利率和实际利率，阻碍市场正常出清和优胜劣汰，进而托住了美股的价格不让它下跌。\n1987年紧急降息；\n2001年持续降息；\n2008年降息至0，开启QE；\n2020年降息至0，开启无限Q；\n……\n美联储印钞和压低利率，至少从三个方面阻碍了美股的正常调整。\n1）印钞购买国债，压低了市场上的无风险收益率，提升了股票相对于国债的吸引力。\n2）压低市场利率，让市场上的储蓄者来补贴借债者，美股的上市公司，能够以更低成本在全球市场融资，本质上变成了放高利贷者。\n3）市场上的钱变多了，美股那些上市的大公司，可以利用自身的信用优势和垄断地位，从市场攫取更多的利润。\n美股如此，中国房地产又何尝不是如此？\n2008年和2014年，中国的房地产价格当时略有调整，政府立即祭出印钞大法，又是降息鼓励民众贷款买房，又是急剧扩大信贷规模，如此一来，这些资产能不成为“长牛”的资产么？\n当然，如果印钞导致市场上出现严重的通货膨胀，政府掩盖不住，那么这个回路就会被打断——1967-1982年正是美国通货膨胀肆虐的15年，这期间美股都是在一路下跌。\n\n为什么官方控制下的轻微通胀有利于股市上涨，而严重通胀，则会导致股市下跌呢？\n因为，严重的通货膨胀会大大抬高市场利率（无风险收益率），这一方面降低了股票资产的相对吸引力，另一方面还会导致很多市场投机者（投资者）更愿意通过囤积物资而获利，这比炒股更赚……\n然而，1982年之后，中国和苏东国家先后加入全球贸易体系，因为科技的扩散，全球的生产能力过剩，无论美联储再怎么印钞，从能源到金属，从粮食到日常消费品，全部都供应充足、大量且廉价，再加上美国巧妙地修改通胀统计方式，这让美国官方通胀率数据始终保持在低位。\n官方通胀率处于低位，通过囤积物资等待上涨的“赚钱方式”被终结，人们更愿意去购买美股这种基本没有持有成本却能够长期上涨的“资产”。\n另外，在低通胀时代，因为美元货币价值的长期稳定，其带来的全球化浪潮，给了美国跨国公司全球攫取利润的能力，现在美国标普500指数所包含的头部科技公司中，海外盈利通常都占了其盈利的30%以上，这大大提升了美股的EPS，进而提升了美股的估值。\n2020年3月份以来的美股V型反转并暴涨，几乎完美地体现了我前面提到的所有方面。\n什么时候美股泡沫才会真正破裂？\n要么，是通货膨胀来袭，市场无风险利率被持续抬高；\n要么，是美国的企业部门或者家庭部门的债务太高，偿还能力出现危机，而美联储停止印钞救助，让市场正常调整；\n还有一种可能，就是以美元为核心的全球信用货币体系崩塌，大家再也不相信美元的价值，一切就会Over。\n总之，从相当长的一个时期来看，只要真实的通货膨胀不起来，只要民众相信官方的通货膨胀数据，只要政府愿意维持债务泡沫，只要央行可以持续印钞，美股以及中房这样的资产，价格都可以被近乎无限地推高。\n这才是现实。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103918980,"gmtCreate":1619742660740,"gmtModify":1704271639135,"author":{"id":"3567126093202955","authorId":"3567126093202955","name":"Leongzai89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e4b1217644af0f56f8f18a459c6af9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567126093202955","idStr":"3567126093202955"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103918980","repostId":"2131531290","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}