To The Moon

Hello. The largest first tranche of any IPO lock-up in US market history came free last night: 911.5 million $SpaceX(SPCX)$ insider shares became eligible to sell, taking the freely tradable count from about 639 million to roughly 1.55 billion in one step. The shares rose 6.14 per cent. The day the selling actually happened wasn't last night. It was the day before. On Wednesday the stock fell 13.61 per cent on about 200 million shares, the heaviest turnover since 18 June; last night volume hit 251 million and set another high, yet the price went up. Heavier volume than Wednesday, and the price went the other way — the people who wanted to sell had mostly finished on Wednesday. Someone went back through three comparable cases: in ea

Hello. Here is the paper $Western Digital(WDC)$ handed in last night: revenue of US$3.747 billion, up 43.8 per cent year on year, net profit up twelvefold, a gross margin of 54.4 per cent that beat consensus by more than 200 basis points. On the call, management said long-term contracts are now booked out to 2031. It fell 11.66 per cent after hours. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ reported the same night with an even louder set of numbers: revenue of US$8.965 billion, up 371.6 per cent, a gross margin of 84.6 per cent, non-GAAP earnings of US$39.25 a share — all three ahead of expectations — and a US$14 billion buyback thrown in on top. It closed down 5.40 per cent and fell another 7.

Hello everyone. When last night's US session closed, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ were both at records, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ above 54,000 for the first time. Not long after the bell, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ was down 8.68 per cent. It wasn't alone. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ was up 9.43 per cent at the close and dived 8.04 per cent after hours, at one point down almost 9 per cent. The two traced almost the same roller coaster: lifted in the session, knocked down after the bell. And neither paper wa

Good morning. Somebody got paid last night. Not the name you're thinking of. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ rose 14.25 per cent after hours on Monday. The same day, $Micron Technology(MU)$ rose 0.79 per cent and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ fell 0.70 per cent. I ended the last piece saying $Apple(AAPL)$ had signed for the shortage and the side collecting the money hadn't. On Monday it signed. The signature doesn't belong to a memory maker. Palantir's quarter: revenue of US$1.935 billion, up 93 per cent year on year, commercial revenue growing at around 150 per cent, a

$Apple(AAPL)$ fell 7.35 per cent on Friday, the only mega-cap to drop hard. The same day, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ rose 15.32 per cent and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ 6.88 per cent. I left a question hanging last time. Tim Cook's line — memory is tight, it will hit next quarter — went into Apple's guidance, and it went into somebody's revenue too. Friday answered. It answered half. Apple's column got copied down; the column belonging to whoever collects the money got rubbed out. $Micron Technology(MU)$ -5.90%, $SanDisk Cor

$Apple(AAPL)$ beat on revenue for its fiscal third quarter and fell 5.74 per cent after hours. Once the same call had wrapped up, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ rose 4.61 per cent in extended hours and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ 3.76 per cent. Between the two sits a single remark from Tim Cook: memory supply is tight, it will hit next quarter, and the company is stockpiling hard to get ahead of significant supply constraints. On Apple's books that sentence is a cost. On a memory maker's books it is revenue. One fact, two income statements, opposite signs. Before we put the whole 5.74 per cent on that one line: the same results missed

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ up 7.70% after hours. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$, down 7.10%. Same evening, same underlying fact — both companies are spending unholy amounts of money on AI — and fifteen points of daylight between them. Read those two numbers alone and you'd conclude the market turned on AI capex. It didn't. It did something more annoying: it started sorting. Start with who flipped the switch. The July FOMC didn't move rates and didn't change a word of the guidance. Warsh spoke, and within thirty minutes the ten worst names on the tape were almost all AI. The S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 7,316.15, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.74%,