To The Moon

QQQ rose as SoFi and Nebius gained more than 11 per cent

The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.27 per cent on Tuesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.60 per cent. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ jumped 13.42 per cent, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ gained 11.22 per cent and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 7.94 per cent. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ advanced 5.45 per cent, 4.00 per cent and 4.04 per cent respectively. Investors returned to more volatile shares before the Federal Reserve had announced its decision.

This was not a uniform technology rally. Nvidia gained only 0.90 per cent, Alphabet rose 0.84 per cent and Meta fell 1.64 per cent. Investors increased risk exposure while continuing to distinguish between companies with reported results, companies relying on future contracts and large platforms still waiting to report.

Higher revenue and profit allowed SoFi to raise full-year guidance

SoFi's gain had support from reported operating figures. Third-quarter adjusted net revenue reached $1.4 billion, up 44 per cent from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 70 per cent to $470 million, while adjusted earnings came to $0.18 a share. Membership increased 35 per cent to 17.1 million, and the company raised its guidance for 2026.

The report addressed both growth and profitability. More members brought additional financial products, while profit grew faster than revenue, showing that expansion was not achieved only through higher costs. SoFi remains exposed to interest rates and credit performance, but Tuesday's move was not simply a market-wide rise. Investors were reassessing revenue growth, margins and next year's targets.

Nebius and CoreWeave rose, but their funding questions remain

AI infrastructure shares also strengthened. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ announced progress on a Danish data centre, while Nebius also posted a sharp gain. These companies purchase GPUs and build data centres before recovering the cost through multi-year contracts. Demand growth can lift revenue expectations, but debt costs, customer concentration and utilisation still determine the cash left after expansion.

The gains in Nebius and CoreWeave therefore look closer to a valuation recovery as risk appetite improved. One session cannot establish that funding pressure has disappeared. Future results need to show revenue, remaining performance obligations, capital expenditure and free cash flow before investors can judge whether new contracts are reducing dependence on external funding.

Seagate and SK hynix confirmed that storage demand remains strong

After the US close, $Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ reported first-quarter financial-year revenue of $4.2 billion, a GAAP gross margin of 57.3 per cent, operating cash flow of $1.7 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion. On Wednesday morning in Beijing, SK hynix reported third-quarter revenue of Won104.6 trillion and operating profit of Won83.3 trillion, producing an operating margin of 80 per cent.

The two reports cannot be used to explain all of Tuesday's regular-session gains retrospectively, but they provide fresh evidence on hardware demand. Seagate reflects demand for high-capacity hard drives, while SK hynix is closer to HBM and DRAM. When strong revenue also becomes gross profit and free cash flow, data-centre expansion is moving beyond order commitments and into supplier financial statements.

The Federal Reserve's language will test the return of risk appetite

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on 29 October. Expectations point to an unchanged target range of 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. Holding rates steady would be unlikely to surprise investors; the press conference's language on inflation, employment and the December policy path matters more.

If the message does not strengthen expectations of further tightening and yields remain stable, SoFi, AI infrastructure and semiconductor shares have a better chance of retaining their gains. If the Federal Reserve puts renewed emphasis on inflation and longer-dated yields rise, companies dependent on future growth and external funding would face valuation pressure first. Tuesday's rally expressed optimism in advance, increasing the risk of a reversal if the decision disappoints.

Microsoft and Alphabet will decide whether the rally can broaden

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ are scheduled to report after Wednesday's close. Consensus revenue estimates stand at roughly $92.49 billion for Microsoft and $132.02 billion for Alphabet. Both companies need to show that AI usage is becoming cloud revenue while explaining how data-centre capital expenditure is affecting free cash flow.

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ has already used results to explain its rally, while Seagate and SK hynix have supplied evidence of hardware demand. Microsoft and Alphabet face a different task: proving that very large investments can produce enough revenue and cash returns. Faster cloud growth with manageable capital expenditure could spread the rally from higher-beta shares to large platforms. A weaker outcome may leave investors rewarding only the smaller group of companies with clear earnings support.

This is personal analysis and not investment advice.

💬 【Talking Point】

Which post-Fed signal would convince you that the rally has broadened beyond a handful of higher-beta shares?

💰 【Bounty】

Share your view and reasoning in the comments for a chance to earn Tiger Coins! 🎁

🔔 Better shared than saved — tag a friend and join the discussion!