$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Musk and Jensen are going to make bulls a lot more money. With these two geniuses working so closely together, holding for the future feels pretty easy.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Foreign investors have been dumping TSMC ordinary shares in volume for 10 straight days, trying to push the stock price down without any sound reason. Some ETFs face limits on how much they can hold due to the higher share price, but that doesn't really count as a valid explanation. Their total holding has dropped to 17,806.505m shares, or 68.7% of TSMC's outstanding shares. Meanwhile, domestic investment trusts have been defending TSMC for 15 straight days. I haven't seen this kind of aggressive selling combined with domestic support in decades. Taiwan's government has done a good job allowing domestic funds to increase their holdings in a single stock, and it does help TSMC a lot.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ NOV20 560C, still actionable. Zone: $536 to $544 Invalidation: close under $526 Objectives: $570, then $605 The math: up 5.6% to the first objective and 12.0% to the second, against 2.6% risk on the invalidation, better than 4 to 1 to the second. Think of this swing setup like a good house on a street that suddenly went quiet. AMD ran to 658 in early October and then pulled back hard, but on Friday it stopped at 526 and it is holding above that low near its 50 day average around 537, which tells you sellers tried and could not push it through. This is a swing into the November 3 earnings report, where the guidance will matter more than the numbers themselves because it tells you whether the AI demand story is stil
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Morgan Stanley cut its AMD GPU demand estimate by 41%. Meanwhile, AMD CEO Lisa Su reached a deal with Samsung to help increase chip supply, particularly for AI data centers. There are two separate parts here: the companies agreed to expand their memory-chip partnership, while a possible deal for Samsung to manufacture AMD processors is still being explored. Between the two, Lisa Su took AMD from $2 to $658 a share, so that side carries a lot more weight for me.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC just printed the kind of quarter that should end the "AI demand is peaking" debate, at least for the foundry layer. Revenue rose about 51% year over year and net income nearly 69%. Q4 is guided to 52.3 to 54.3 billion dollars at a 65% to 67% gross margin, capex stays at 60 to 64 billion, and management called AI demand extremely robust with a steep 2nm ramp ahead. ASML backed that up a day earlier with record Q3 sales and customers already asking about 2029 and 2030 capacity. Still, the stock and the rest of the chip group slipped on Thursday after reports of slower growth at a large private AI lab. My read: one private growth print does not cancel multi-year foundr
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC is fundamentally fine. The market just seems off lately, and hopefully it isn't coming down with something. We had the DeepSick selloff that pushed most stocks into bear territory, and now there's this hyped CXMT threat. Both narratives came from China, and the Street looks to be using them to pressure stocks right before earnings from a number of key companies. Give it another day and enjoy the weekend.