$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
Revenue rose about 51% year over year and net income nearly 69%. Q4 is guided to 52.3 to 54.3 billion dollars at a 65% to 67% gross margin, capex stays at 60 to 64 billion, and management called AI demand extremely robust with a steep 2nm ramp ahead. ASML backed that up a day earlier with record Q3 sales and customers already asking about 2029 and 2030 capacity.
Still, the stock and the rest of the chip group slipped on Thursday after reports of slower growth at a large private AI lab. My read: one private growth print does not cancel multi-year foundry demand, but crowded AI trades react hard to narrative shocks. The bigger driver for me is the 10-year yield, which swung from about 5.24% to roughly 5.07% this week. I hold TSM and I'm not chasing spikes into the Fed meeting.
What matters more to you here: the 2nm ramp or where yields go next?
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