To The Moon

Market breadth is weakening as momentum cools. $SPX participation is rolling over, while $SMH points to a healthy consolidation phase. At the same time, $TSLA sits at key long-term support and $PLTR shows a potential bullish reversal signal. The market may be shifting from trend to consolidation, with selective setups emerging. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has reversed from 70%, usually a consolidation follows; this time potentially below the 50DMA. The market was driven by strength in Tech and Materials, overall participation was negative. 2. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Two weeks ago I posted in my publication that semiconductors would outperform the market at the

Two weeks ago this publication anticipated the high probabilities for a reversal given extreme oversold conditions. Back then, the price action was extremely oversold and sentiment was at lows not seen since the previous crash in April 2025. When the market began its bounce on March 31, essential levels were reclaimed. First, the Central Daily Level (our “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicator) sat at 6,362. The price opened above this level, providing an immediate bullish signal to subscribers who use our levels for validation. Subsequently, our Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,458 “sealed the deal,” confirming the weekly reversal and validating the bullish setups for the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Is the SPX bounce a technical surprise? Not exactly. The price recovered the 20DMA by the close. $6,795 could set resistance, suggesting a potential consolidation at the open, likely toward $6,728.9 and maybe $6,689.3. Given that the price is bouncing from extreme oversold conditions, a complete gap fill soon is not guaranteed, since the 200DMA can flip to support, as on May 12 2025. one year ago today, the VIX closed above 50, a signal with a 100% win rate over the following year and an average S&P 500 return of 35%. The S&P 500 has gained 38% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when others were fearful.

The artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout of 2024 to 2026 represents the largest single capital deployment cycle in technology history. The four major hyper-scalers, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$, are on a combined trajectory toward $600 billion in annual capital expenditure by 2027. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , the primary beneficiary of this spending, generated $215.9 billion in revenue in FY2026 with $96.6 billion in free cash flow and holds more than $1 trillion in confirmed purchase orders through CY2027.

As noted yesterday, the resilience of Monday’s price action was notable, especially given the bearish sentiment over the weekend. While the price managed to hold above the Central Monthly Level (CML), the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ signaled caution by closing higher alongside the indices. Today’s intraday pullback validates that warning and is worth studying through the levels shared yesterday. Remember, the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ was flagged to “raise alarms” if $587.9 was lost. Overnight price action confirmed this bearish shift, validating the spike in volatility. Upon the opening bell, the selloff accelerated toward the extended daily support level of $579.3. This overextended price action ultimately trig

The market managed a green close today despite heavy negative sentiment. While the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (+0.44%) move might have been emotionally surprising to the crowd, it was technically valid. As analyzed in our Weekly Compass, the charts specifically signaled this bullish potential. The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ followed suit, gaining +0.6%. Last week, our Daily Levels were instrumental in anticipating bullish reversals. These modeled “Bullish Above / Bearish Below” indicators act as your primary momentum compass, while our structured Support and Resistance (S/R) levels define the high-probability destinations for the move. Example QQQ (SPX is below with more securities): For tomorrow, the QQQ must hold above

Rare levels of bearish sentiment in $SPX historically lead to relief rallies and often precede major bottoms, while $GOOG shows a bullish stochastic crossover in oversold territory—typically a strong setup for a rebound. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Over the last 30 years, we have seen this level of bearish sentiment (55%) only a few times. Relief rallies have followed without fail; even when those rallies were short-lived A major bottom materialized few weeks after. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Bullish stochastic crossovers in the oversold zone (at or below 20) usually precede solid bounces. 11 successful cases and 2 exceptions (2022) in 10 yea

Despite the extreme bearish sentiment last weekend, I anticipated that a bounce was coming, citing a high likelihood of a relief rally, “as the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ were showing potential for a trend reversal.” Pessimism was as high as it was in April 2025, but staying focused on technical indicators is essential, regardless of the noise. Markets closed the first week of April with their first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 3.4%

Markets are showing early signs of a sentiment shift, with smart money turning optimistic even as broader fear remains elevated. This divergence suggests the current bounce may have room to extend, but confirmation—especially through key technical breakouts like Nvidia’s—remains critical. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Smart money confidence is optimistic while dumb money is neutral. The Fear & Greed Index continues at Extreme Fear. Green circles highlight increase in smart money confidence and bullish moves that followed. The bounce could have more fuel. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The 20DMA has been rejecting price since March. The candle looks bullish, but volume is low. It needs a breakout above the downtrend to sh

The market continues to produce rapid moves that can trap both bulls and bears. This week, for the first time in over a month, the trap favored the bulls; after five consecutive weeks in the red, the main indices finally closed with over 3% gains each, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ jumped during the week 3.95%. Modeled Support and Resistance Levels Framed Price Action The pathway to a green close was not smooth. On Monday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ extended its oversold conditions, moving toward the bearish weekly target of $6,216. Once the overextension concluded, also breaching the lower daily Bollinger Band, the price began the “imminent bounce” anticipated this weekend in the Weekly Compass, where I mentioned th