Short-seller Andrew Left‘s Citron Research intensified its campaign against Palantir Technologies Inc. on Wednesday, posting a direct comparison to private competitor Databricks that highlights Palantir’s slower growth on several key metrics.
Palantir Versus Databricks: Is PLTR Accurately Valued?
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday afternoon, Citron Research highlighted that Databricks has been valued at $100 billion in the private markets.
“Give Palantir the same $100 billion valuation that Databricks just earned. Where does that put the stock? $40. The exact same math we saw when comparing Palantir to OpenAI,” Citron’s post stated.
It added that “When every member of the "Mt. Rushmore of AI" — OpenAI, Databricks, and others — points to the same answer for Palantir's fair value, it's no longer a coincidence. It's a flashing warning sign. Palantir is a $40 stock, and every real AI leader keeps reminding us of that fact.”
Citron also published a table titled “Palantir Vs Databricks Metrics,” showing the private AI and data analytics firm outperforming Palantir in several key areas. According to the data presented by Citron:
Future Growth Projection: Databricks is projected to grow at 50%, double Palantir’s 25% projection.
Customer Count: Databricks has a vastly larger customer base of 15,000 compared to Palantir’s 849.
Net Revenue Retention: Databricks also leads in expanding business with existing clients, showing a net revenue retention of over 140%, while Palantir’s is 128%.
YoY Revenue Growth: Databricks’ year-over-year revenue growth is 50% versus Palantir’s 45%. However, Palantir’s annual revenue was slightly higher at $4.15 billion compared to Databricks’ $3.9 billion, according to the post.
‘OpenAI At $500 Billion Puts Palantir At $40'
This new comparison reinforces the central thesis of Citron’s Monday report, which called OpenAI’s recent $500 billion valuation the “Rosetta stone for Palantir’s stock”. In that report, Citron calculated that OpenAI’s valuation gives it a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 17x its projected 2026 revenue.
Applying that same “lofty” 17x multiple to Palantir’s projected 2026 revenue of $5.6 billion would imply a stock price of approximately $40 per share. Citron argued that even this is a generous valuation, as Palantir does not deserve to trade at the same multiple as the undisputed AI leader.
The firm contends that Palantir’s growth, which hinges on “slow, customized contracts,” does not compound in the same way as OpenAI’s, calling Palantir “essentially locked-in consulting wrapped in software.
The move follows Citron’s bearish report on that used OpenAI’s valuation as a benchmark to argue Palantir is significantly overvalued
The renewed pressure from the influential short-seller has weighed on Palantir’s stock. After Citron’s initial report, shares of Palantir fell 9.35% on Tuesday and were down another 3.14% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.
According to Benzinga Pro, PLTR’s forward price-to-earnings or forward P/E ratio stood at 250x. The stock as up 109.80% year-to-date and 388.09% over the past year.