Summary
- Past headwinds are rearing their heads again, as chip concerns and Chinese lockdowns are once again in the news cycle.
- Latest deliveries from NIO are solid when considering current production capacity at its Hefei factory.
- Its new factory at NeoPark could produce about 1 million vehicles a year. It's now starting to ramp up, although it'll take time to reach full capacity.
- NIO investors must develop a longer-term mindset in holding the stock; those that do will be rewarded in the years ahead.
The share price of NIO (NYSE:NIO) took another hit recently in response to the news the Chinese government was locking down some cities and regions again in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, along with restrictions on NVIDIA's (NVDA) AI chips sent to China.
In my opinion, the company has held up fairly well when considering the headwinds of COVID-19 lockdowns, increase in the price of raw materials, concerns about delisting, and supply chain challenges.
In this article we'll look at the recent delivery numbers released by NIO, as well as why it's vital that shareholders and potential investors embrace a long-term holding outlook when and if taking a position in the EV company.
First, let's look at the latest delivery results.
Latest deliveries
For August 2022,NIO announced it delivered 10,677 vehicles, a solid year-over-year increase of 81.6 percent. Sequentially, it represented an increase of 6 percent.
Of the vehicles delivered, 7,551 were premium smart electric SUVs, while the remaining 3,126 were premium smart electric sedans. Of those, there were 398 ES7s delivered in August.
For the year through August, NIO has delivered 71,556 vehicles, a gain of 28.3 percent year-over-year.
As for its peers, Li Auto (LI) delivered 4,571 vehicles in August 2022, down 52 percent year-over-year, while XPeng (XPEV) delivered 9,578, up 33 percent year-over-year.
The reason NIO is starting to strengthen against its Chinese EV peers is, as I've mentioned in past articles, because of the loss of production as it retrofitted its production facility, and the timing of the release of new products, which are starting to have a gradual positive impact on delivery numbers. With the new gigafactory in NeoPark going online, that will be a big growth catalyst long into the future, with the potential to produce up to 1 million vehicles at full capacity.
It'll take a little time for this to unfold, but I expect at minimum incremental growth in the near term, which should expand to much stronger growth as headwinds continue to dissipate going forward.
Bear in mind that its Hefei facility only has the capacity to produce approximately 120,000 vehicles a year. That will increase as its gigafactory at NeoPark ramps up.
Headwinds
The latest perceived headwind was the news that China had placed restrictions on Nvidia's AI chips, even though it has nothing to do with chips used in EVs. The fear came from the alleged possibility that this could attract the type of scrutiny that would have an impact on chips that were used in EVs. Predictably, the market panicked from the unproven theory that this is what could possibly happen. It reminds me of the overhyped idea that NIO was likely to be delisted, even though I'm on record that it was very unlikely to play out that way. My point is, it's probably going to take a lot more than Chinese restrictions on Nvidia AI chips to trigger the type of reaction that would cause a pushback that would have an impact on the Chinese EV industry, and by extension, NIO, Inc. As for the other visible headwinds, the ongoing, sporadic lockdowns are already priced in, even though there is always the temporary sell-off when a new one is announced. I see these as nothing more than a temporary delay to the growth of NIO, rather than any type of long-term disruption to the company.
That leads me to the major thesis of this article, which is investors must change from the trading mentality that was embraced when NIO was enjoying a lot of hype that rapidly moved its share price in fairly predictable up and down patterns.
NIO shareholders must embrace new mindset
Like I said, in the past, when NIO's share price was very volatile while continuing to increase in value, it invited a large number of traders that moved successfully in and out of the stock. I was one of them.
But with the timing of the pandemic and NIO's strategy of retrofitting its production facility while building a new one, it put significant downward pressure on the stock, which flushed out many of the traders that were underwater.
As this has played out, NIO has been gradually improving its outlook with the new products it is releasing into the market that will compete at different price points.
The company should further separate itself from Li Auto and XPeng as it ramps up production at its newest facility. Outside of war breaking out, I see a prolonged growth period for NIO, once which will reward shareholders significantly.
But the only way this will benefit investors will be to transition from a trading mindset to a long-term holding mindset. We need to largely ignore the noise of the news cycle and look strictly at the numbers and the prospects for NIO in the EV space. With its expanding product line, available capital, and long-term production capacity, long-term shareholders will do very well if they don't sell-off in response to temporary headwinds.
Conclusion
Among growth companies, I see NIO as one of those that are about a sure bet as you can get, assuming shareholders aren't flushed out of their holdings by the fear now permeating the market.
It has a growing number of models to compete at various price points, production capacity that will allow it to grow for years into the future, and the available capital fund that growth.
The company will continue be volatile under the current economic and pandemic conditions, but as these things start to improve, the growth trajectory of NIO should resume to strong levels. Over time, I see NIO as a play that offers extraordinary upside for patient investors.