Hi Tigers! 🐯 If you didn't invest through the dot-com crash, remember two things: 1️⃣ It can get worse. 2️⃣ It can last a LOT longer than you think. I'm buying the dip, but I'm not buying stocks just because they've fallen 20%. A big drop doesn't automatically make a stock cheap. If earnings expectations are still too optimistic and valuations remain stretched, there could be plenty of downside left. If this really is a bubble bursting, some companies won't survive. Weak balance sheets, cash burn, and dependence on cheap capital can turn a market correction into an existential crisis. The dot-com crash taught us that even promising technologies can produce terrible investments when you pay too much for them. The goal isn't to catch the bottom. It's to own businesses that can survive the do

The problem with neoclouds is simple: they require enormous amounts of capital to sell what is increasingly becoming a commodity. The model works until capital gets expensive, margins compress, or investors stop funding the next round. Then the whole thing can unravel quickly. And that’s the risk facing $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ . The stock is approaching the conversion prices on its 2031 and 2033 convertible debt. Those maturities may be years away, but if the stock falls below $180.31, the risk changes: instead of potential equity dilution, the company could face a need to repay roughly $4.3 BILLION in cash. Could it refinance? Possibly. But potentially at a much higher interest rate, adding even more pressure to the business. That’s the downward spiral. <

$Bumble Inc.(BMBL)$ ( ▲ 0.34% ) hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since entering the portfolio a year ago, but it’s going to have a successful exit. The company has accepted a buyout offer from Ithaca Holdings for $6.05 per share, a 138% premium to the stock’s closing price on Friday. As of now, the stock trades for $5.94 per share, and I’m going to use that as an opportunity to take a 26% gain on the stock and move on. Why I’m Selling Bumble To be honest, Bumble was on my short list to sell over the last few months. I didn’t sell because I over-index to not selling stocks, and in this case, that worked out to my benefit. But the business wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, and the turnaround I hoped for hasn’t really taken sha

Autonomous driving is a technology problem. But having the best technology doesn't guarantee you win the business. Look at $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Uber(UBER)$. The companies that win aren't always the ones with the best technology. They're often the ones with the best business model and distribution. So who has the best business model in autonomous driving? Who can keep vehicles full and maximize utilization? That’s where $UBER gets interesting. Instead of betting everything on building its own self-driving technology, Uber is partnering with multiple AV developers and bringing their vehicles onto its global ride-hailing network. Its potential edge is

Our local gym just hiked prices 10% overnight. Membership costs are now nearly 2x what they were five years ago. But there’s a limit to how much pricing power a gym can squeeze out of its members. $Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.(LTH)$ is already seeing membership per center decline consistently for two years. That’s a potential warning sign that higher prices are starting to meet resistance. If a downturn hits and members begin cutting discretionary spending, the combination of slowing membership and a cost-heavy operating model could turn ugly fast. At 21x earnings, $LTH looks priced for perfection. The question is how much more pricing power it really has before demand starts to crack. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is k

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Muse’s retention numbers are out, and they’re surprisingly close to ChatGPT. 📊 The numbers tell an interesting story: D7 retention: Above 30%, reportedly higher than ChatGPT D14 retention: 22%, just below ChatGPT 77.5% of users were gone within two weeks Muse still trails the retention leaders: WhatsApp: 67% YouTube: 59% Instagram: 54% TikTok / Snapchat: 37% Muse is one of the better-retaining AI products. Yet more than a quarter of users never opened it the day after downloading, and over three-quarters had stopped using it by day 14. That’s the uncomfortable part. If one of the strongest AI apps struggles to keep users engaged, what does that say about the broader AI business model? Trillions of dollars in infrastruc

Here are the 25 companies currently standing out to me for their growth potential, market position, or long-term asymmetric upside. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ — Audio streaming platform with more than 600 million active users worldwide. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ — A leading blockchain platform with the balance sheet and management team to benefit if crypto, blockchain and Web3 continue expanding over the next decade. $Portillo’s Inc.(PTLO)$ — A fast-growing restaurant brand built around hot dogs, burgers and a scalable store model. $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ — A space tourism company pursuing a new category of comm

⚠️ This Is What a Downward Spiral Looks Like Growth depends on debt. Debt gets more expensive → the stock falls → equity becomes a weaker backstop → but growth still requires more spending → so you borrow more → and financing gets even more expensive. 🔄 That’s the spiral. $Oracle(ORCL)$ is now at the center of this debate. 🦔 Its 5-year CDS spread reportedly hit 230 bps, more than 4× the broader investment-grade index at 55 bps and dramatically higher than a year ago. At the same time, Oracle is committing massive amounts of capital to AI infrastructure. 💰 The key question isn’t simply whether AI demand is real. It’s whether the expected growth can generate enough cash flow to support the debt required to fund it. 📉 S&P’s BBB- rating leaves onl

🚀 $On Holding AG(ONON)$ jumped more than 10% today, and there are three big reasons behind the move. 1️⃣ High teens revenue growth through 2029 Management is now guiding for high teens revenue growth through 2029. That gives investors a much clearer view of the company's longer-term growth trajectory, rather than forcing the market to focus only on the next quarter. 📈 2️⃣ 65% gross margins through 2029 This may be the more important number. Management sees gross margins holding around 65% through 2029, which would leave plenty of room for operating leverage as revenue scales. For a consumer brand still expanding globally, that kind of margin profile is a major part of the long-term thesis. 💰 3️⃣ A $1 billion buyback Then there is the headline-gra

At first glance, it looks like an obvious win. Today, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ essentially captures the full value of the advertising transaction. Advertisers pay Meta to connect products with consumers, while creators don't take a direct cut of that ad spend. For advertisers, it's effectively a customer acquisition cost. And as long as the economics work, Meta can keep pushing that CAC higher. 🔥 That's what makes the advertising business so powerful. But Muse could introduce a very different model. 🛒 The Muse model Instead of taking advertising dollars upfront, Meta could potentially take a small percentage of commerce transactions happening through Muse. Imagine a brand like Ridge is willing to spend $20 to acquire a customer buying an $80 w