If oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ isn’t on your mind right now, it should be. We may be in for one of those generational moments in the energy industry as Iran and the rest of the Middle East sees both supply and transportation impacted. Here are some things I think I know that may be wrong. The U.S. Is a Net Oil Exporter If you haven’t spent time playing on the EIA website…maybe you won’t find this fun. But I think it’s fascinating. This is a table I’ve had bookmarked for more than a decade, and it tells a lot about what’s going on in the world of oil. For this portion, I want to focus on net imports. You can see that in 2005, the U.S. was a net importer of 12.5 million barrels of oil per day. Today, we’re a net exporter of 3.1 milli

This week, I built a tool to demonstrate how quickly wealth can compound depending on your starting balance, monthly contributions, and time horizon at different growth rates. The Asymmetric Portfolio, for example, started from nothing, and I invest $500 per month. If I generate a 15.0% annualized return, the portfolio would be worth $3.46 million in 30 years. After two years of returns closer to 30%…I hope I can beat a 15% return. But historically, that’s a high bar. You can see an image of the tool below and play with it yourself by clicking on the image. I don’t show this to show off my coding skills. I have none. And if you look closely, the numbers below are correct, but the graph is wrong, so AI is still making mistakes. I point this out because building this tool required exactly ze

Market Insights: Growth and Strategic Moves in Healthcare and EVs $HIMS could see significantly higher Q4 2026 growth than consensus, driven by acquisitions and new product launches, potentially hitting ~$1B in revenue. Meanwhile, $UBER’s partnerships and optional vehicle purchases highlight its strategy to commoditize suppliers, while $RIVN faces cash pressures and delayed deployments, making further deals likely. Strategic clauses and R&D spending point to Uber hedging its risk while accelerating autonomy initiatives. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Analysts are expecting a 22.4% Y/Y growth rate at Hims & Hers in Q4 2026. That might be wrong by a wide margin because: - Eucalyptus acquisition ($100M+ per Q) - Novo deal - Peptide la

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming

Finding 10x investments isn’t about running the best DCF model or guessing next quarter’s earnings better than the next guy. History shows that the market’s biggest winners have gotten their strategy right early and simply ridden massive waves to incredible heights. Maybe they didn’t know what they were doing at the time (ex. Google’s founders didn’t know what they had on their hands early on, whereas $Uber(UBER)$ founder Travis Kalanick did), but we can learn from the last two decades of investing to project out the next 10x (100x?) stocks. Today, I’m going to dive into how we should understand changes in discovery and distribution should be understood by investors and why, sometimes, going for scale above all else is the best strategy. Pre-Inter

In hindsight, the recession in 2008 was obvious. Consumers had gotten over-leveraged, and rising oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ prices eventually put too much pressure on the consumer to handle. Oil wasn’t the direct cause, but it was a sign of the peak, a push over the edge, whatever you want to call it. The parallels to this moment don’t end there. What else peaks in early 2008? You guessed it…jobs. Higher gasoline prices aren’t the cause of a recession, per se, but when they spike, it can lead to economic catastrophe. According to a BLS report on 2024 consumer spending, transportation accounts for 17.0% of the average consumer’s bills. If gasoline prices rise by 100%, that number may rise to 20% or more. And then compromises start

The $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ thesis laid out in the spotlight article is relatively simple. Build scale in the language market Expand into new education modalities (language specialist to education generalist) Chess and math are early examples Bundle growing content suite for one simple, compelling monthly fee Democratize education at scale This would create a flywheel in education as more scale gives Duolingo the economics to develop more modalities, which would make the bundle more valuable, and so on. It’s similar to what $Netflix(NFLX)$ did with content, providing more content value for subscribers over time. But there’s a conundrum for Duolingo economically. It could run a profitable business today wit

Peptides could be a new multi-billion-dollar market for companies like Hims & Hers $HIMS. What are these peptides, and what do they do? Here's what you need to know about all 19 peptides in question today, 14 of which may soon be legal to compound (according to RFK) 👇 1. BPC-157 Note: These infographics are made by Gemini and are for informational purposes only. 2. Thymosin Alpha-1 (Ta1) 3. Thymosin Beta-4 Fragment (TB-500) 4. AOD-9604 5. CJC-1295 6. Ipamorelin Acetate 7. Selank Acetate (TP-7) 8. Semax 9. GHK-Cu (Copper Peptide) 10. GHRP-2 11. GHRP-6 12. Epitalon 13. KPV 14. Kisspeptin-10 15. Melanotan II 16. MOTS-c 17. PEG-MGF (Pegylated Mechano Growth Factor) 18. Emideltide (DSIP - Delta Sleep-Inducing Peptide) 19. Cathelicidin LL-37 For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and

Why have SaaS and growth stocks taken it on the chin in 2026 while boring businesses like Walmart and Coca-Cola rise? It’s all about math. I’m not going to make you do math today, but I do want to show why the math behind analyst models is driving the market to strange places so far this year. Terminal Value Explained In Re-Rating the Stock Market, I wrote about how changing expectations for future free cash flow can cause investors to value stocks differently. What that article missed was the tangible calculations behind how investors think about valuing companies…at least on an academic level. In theory, stocks are valued based on the present value of all future free cash flows. That’s an easy statement to make, but it’s fraught with assumptions that I generally think are BS because we c

This group reflects a market that is sharply distinguishing between disciplined execution and fragile narratives. FIGS, Inc. has rewarded patience with a 130% gain, while Tesla, Inc. continues to navigate uneven growth momentum. Netflix, Inc. strengthened its strategic flexibility by avoiding a leveraged deal with Warner Bros. Discovery, preserving balance sheet health. Meanwhile, DraftKings Inc. demonstrates that scale and revenue growth alone do not ensure sustainable profitability. 1. $FIGS, Inc.(FIGS)$ Sometimes, a thesis takes a while to play out. Figs is now up 130% in the Asymmetric Portfolio. That's a surprise to me too! 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA growth has been negative 4 of the last 8 quarter

As humans, we have a tendency to imagine a world that doesn’t yet exist and simplify how easy it will be to get to this imaginary place. In reality, change happens slowly on a day-to-day basis. Yes, a lot has changed in the last few decades, but in many ways, nothing has changed at all. In 1995, Bill Gates became the richest man in the world, a title he’s within striking distance of holding today. In the 1940s, $Coca-Cola(KO)$ became a consumer staple drink, a place it still holds today. $Nike(NKE)$ was the “IT brand” when I was a kid, and 40 years later, Jordan (a Nike creation and brand) is the “IT brand” for my son. $General Motors(GM)$ and

Duolingo trades near $4.6B market cap with $1.1B cash, giving ~12x adjusted EBITDA, highlighting long-term growth potential despite high SBC spend. On Holding faces currency headwinds ahead of its earnings report but remains a top brand in the portfolio for compounding returns. 1. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Duolingo $DUOL has $1.1 billion in cash and if the ~21% drop holds would trade for about a $4.6 billion market cap. That's an enterprise value of $3.5 billion, or 12x adjusted EBITDA. This is still a growth company sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term growth! My biggest problem right now is spending 15% of revenue on SBC. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ My #2 holding in the Asymmetric Portfolio repo

We're selling consumer spending and credit risk but buying big pharma because people with no money are going to buy GLP-3s? Ohh, and YAY Walmart $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ ! And energy and telecom are up because something, something people are going to drive their cars in default to jobs they don't have. BTW, the AI disrupting the economy is BS and semiconductor stocks are all doomed. But seriously, more drugs! Did I make sense of today's market? $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as

In April 2025, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs that sent the market into a tailspin. Companies from apparel to automotive reconfigured their supply chains in order to adjust to a seemingly constant flow of tariff changes day after day. And on Friday, most of those tariffs were deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. We don’t know if consumers, manufacturers, importers, retailers, or someone else will get the ~$175 billion in tariffs already paid back, but there’s at least some resolution to last year’s biggest wild card. While the Supreme Court ruled the president can’t put specific tariffs on countries willy-nilly, he can legally put a blanket tariff of up to 15% on all imports (Congress gave that power), which is exactly what President Trump has done. For now, that seems to be wh

OpenAI is reportedly finalizing a $100 billion funding round that includes $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Softbank Group Corp(SFTBY)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$. The deal will push OpenAI’s valuation to $850 billion, which would make it the 12th most valuable company publicly traded in the U.S., and funding is now over $160 billion. Every time I hear about one of these big funding rounds, it makes me nervous because the foundation on which these valuations are being built is tenuous, at best. And still, the funding and spending on AI is driving everything from semiconductor stocks to HVAC, energy, and materials stocks higher

Is Something Big Really Happening? Why (I think) Silicon Valley and Wall Street are so terrified of disruption this time. Software and growth stocks are getting hammered as investors price in a high likelihood of disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) across the board. What solidified this freak-out in my mind was a viral post called Something Big Is Happening that reads like “my programming job is being replaced by AI, and you’re next.” What’s the fuss all about? What’s signal and what’s noise? I think we need to take a step back and look at who is being impacted by AI today and why they’re so worried. No surprise, the fear of disruption is emanating from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The market isn’t worried about farming jobs. Or construction jobs. Or manufacturing. Or retail. T

Any discussion of $Walt Disney(DIS)$ ’s long-term strategy needs to start with entertainment. If the studios aren’t producing hit content, nothing else really matters for Disney. Unfortunately, Disney no longer breaks out results from studios, cable, and streaming, so we get this conglomerate look at the entertainment business overall. Within these results, we do know that cable is in decline. In fiscal 2025, linear network revenue was down 16% to $2.06 billion, and operating income dropped 21% to $391 million. There’s no indication that the decline has stopped, but it’s being overcome by growth at studios and streaming. I’ll start with studios, which include Disney Animation, Lucasfilm, Marvel, and Pixar. The box office is showing us that Disney i

No matter the company, stock values don’t go up in a straight line. They’re volatile depending on the market’s mood, comments on conference calls, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and even the weather. That volatility can be maddening, but we need to keep in mind that the key is buying great companies that can grow for a long time and just hang on for the ride. For example… 1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon’s growth chart looks like a steady climb up and to the right. And in many ways, it was with growth rates over 20% for most of the last two decades. But the stock performance was very different. There were drawdowns (the stock price decline from its peak) of as much as 65% and it often took years to get back to previous highs. 2.