The argument around $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ’s FSD has become pretty simple. Cost vs. safety. Tesla’s approach has always leaned heavily toward making autonomy work with a simpler hardware stack. But real-world driving isn’t predictable. When something goes wrong, safety often comes down to redundancy — having another system available when the first one fails. That’s why the FSD debate isn’t really just about whether the system can drive. It’s about whether the system has enough backup when the real world throws something unexpected at it. Tesla says FSD is still supervised and does not make the vehicle fully autonomous. That distinction matters. The bigger question is whether a lower-cost approach can eventually deliver the level of redundancy peopl

Today, the Asymmetric Universe includes 25 stocks I’ve covered in spotlight articles, and the list will continue to grow over time. 🌱 Being part of the universe does not guarantee an investment. Some stocks may never receive capital, while others can be purchased multiple times as opportunities emerge. 💰 How I Allocate New Capital I invest $500 in new capital every month. 📌 If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ falls 20% from its all-time high, monthly capital increases to $1,000. 📌 At a 30% decline, I’ll add $1,500. 📌 The allocation continues to increase as the broader market falls further. The idea is simple: put more capital to work when the market becomes more distressed. 🔄 🎯 How I Pick Stoc

On September 9, 2026, $Apple(AAPL)$ is expected to announce the iPhone 18. For 19 years, the iPhone has been one of the most anticipated devices of the year, but this year, I can’t help but feel it’s going to be a dud. And not because the phone itself won’t be impressive. Consumers’ reactions may be driven more by prices. Maybe it’s because I’m in the market for BOTH a new Mac Studio and an iPhone that I’m feeling the pain of recent price increases. But as someone who doesn’t have any interest in running AI on-device, why should I pay 25% more for a device that does essentially the same thing as it did a year ago? Sure, the chip is faster, but that’s always the case. The reason prices are up is because of memory costs. There’s going to be a subset

One of the big topics on Wall Street over the past few weeks has been interest rates. I’m not talking about the Fed funds rate, which is the one mentioned after Fed meetings and where the Fed actually has some control. I’m talking about long-term rates. These rates are set by the market. The market will take hints from the Fed, but if the Fed, White House, or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want to lower long-term rates, they have fewer options to influence the market. It’s possible to impact the market with something like “quantitative easing,” which is essentially printing money to buy bonds, but you'd better do it at a massive scale with $40 trillion in debt outstanding! That hasn’t happened, and the market is now demanding a higher return (yield) on 30-year U.S. treasury bonds than at

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ ( ▲ 6.03% ) has a lot of the characteristics of a winner in the pre-AI tech paradigm. The company can be an aggregator of demand and leverage scale on a global level to disrupt a multi-trillion-dollar market. But AI business models aren’t likely to replicate the business models that won over the last 20 years. The biggest problem I see is that AI companies continuously disrupt each other with no sustainable differentiation or feedback loop that keeps a company ahead for long. Anthropic takes a lead in coding in January, OpenAI takes it back in July, and Grok may be the winner by September. That’s made it difficult for me to see/invest in “AI winners.” What does it mean to win the next 6 months if you lose your e

4 Stocks Where Fundamentals Are Telling a Different Story 📊 1. $Uber(UBER)$ — Bookings Still Matter Most For Uber, gross bookings remain one of the most important metrics to watch. So far, there's little evidence that Waymo is disrupting Uber's core business. The key question isn't whether autonomous driving will change mobility — it will. The question is whether Uber's marketplace can continue growing before that disruption becomes meaningful. For now, the bookings data is still telling a relatively strong story. 🚗 2. $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ — Growth Isn't the Question Zeta is clearly out-growing many of its competitors. That's not really the debate anymore. The bigger question is: How much

It’s 13-F season, which means we’re getting position disclosures from hedge funds and asset managers as of the end of the second quarter. This isn’t something I usually follow, but this quarter I think it’s especially interesting. Not because there are some brilliant moves, but because everyone is making the same trade. They’re all going long the AI buildout in one form or another. Some are buying chip companies, others are buying chip equipment, and some are playing energy, but it’s all the same trade. And I find that fascinating because it’s a consensus trade that everyone thinks will work. More on that in a moment. Hedge Funds Making the Same Bet One of the things I always find interesting in the public discourse about stocks is how much everyone is just talking their book. And this qua

Asymmetric Investing isn’t about being right about every stock; it’s about being VERY right when I do find a winner. I’m swinging for 10-run homeruns (yes, I know those don’t exist), not for a high batting average. That philosophy can lead to high variability in returns. If I get a trend wrong or the market is focused elsewhere (ahem, AI in 2026), I can underperform for a long period of time, even if I’m beating the market long-term. But one winner can also make up for a lot of mistakes. In 2024, that was $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ ( ▲ 2.93% ). In 2025, it was $Robinhood(HOOD)$ ( ▼ 3.83% ). This year, there haven’t been any big outperformers. Until now. $Zeta Gl

The market doesn't like seeing revenue growth slow, but I think the bigger question is what $On Holding AG(ONON)$ is giving up to protect profitability. Management appears willing to accept some moderation in growth rather than sacrifice margins just to keep the top line moving faster. That tradeoff could become increasingly important over the long term. If margins continue to expand, the earnings power of the business can keep improving even if revenue growth settles at a lower rate. At around 22x trailing earnings, the valuation also looks much more interesting if margin expansion continues to translate into stronger EPS growth. What looks expensive on today's numbers can look very different a few years from now if the company keeps improving it

Don’t be fooled by the market’s reaction; $Uber(UBER)$ ( ▲ 3.36% ) had an outstanding second quarter. Monthly active customers jumped 16%, trips were up 18%, and gross bookings were up 22%. So, if trips and bookings were so strong, why was revenue only up 12.2% (11% on a constant currency basis)? And is that what the market was disappointed by? Part of the answer lies in a contra-revenue charge in the U.K. that I’ll explain below. What’s more important for long-term investors is the operating profit line, which continues to improve. Or you could look at operating and free cash flow, which are both trending higher. By the way, Uber trades for just 14x free cash flow at this point. And despite all of this improvement in operations, Uber’s stock trad

This is the latest allocation of $500 into a personal portfolio of stocks with 10x potential over the next decade. I’ll allocate from the “Asymmetric Universe” of stocks. Today, that universe has 25 stocks that I’ve covered in spotlight articles, and the universe will grow in time. Not all stocks covered will receive an investment, and allocations may be made to the same stock multiple times. Here are the rules of allocation. Invest $500 in total new capital each month. If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is 20% below its all-time high, this allocation will increase to $1,000 monthly. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite is down 30%, I’ll add $1,500, and so on. The Universe of Asymmetric Stoc

No investor has epitomized 2026 like Leopold Aschenbrenner. Through June, his $48 billion (at the time) hedge fund, Situational Awareness, was up 439% after fees, an incredible run by any measure. This morning, Situational Awareness blew up. What happened and what can we learn about leverage, buying dips, and investing today? That’s what I’m going to dig through today. Blowing Up In 2009, I was in MBA school and interned for a hedge fund in the Minneapolis area that did a little bit of everything. There was market making, high-frequency trading, options positions, and even leveraged bets on commodities. It was a whirlwind of a learning experience, and at the end, I sat down with the owner, who had been in hedge funds for ~30 years. We talked for over an hour, but one thing stuck out to me:

One of the most profitable companies in the world went free cash flow negative in the second quarter, and investors are worried. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.34% ) shares are down 20% from their high in May, and there’s good reason to ask some serious questions. No, the market isn’t worried about where Alphabet is going to get the $200+ billion it’ll spend on capex this year or the (maybe) $300 billion it’ll spend next year. There’s a great cash flow business to fund most of that, and debt can fill the rest of the gap. The market is worried that the return on Alphabet’s spending and the spending of every hyperscaler and neocloud will have low or no return at all. ~$1 trillion in spending this year, and even more next year, needs to generate a return. As

From biotech catalysts and consumer brand momentum to EV valuation debates, these three stocks highlight how investors are focusing on very different opportunities—and risks—across today's market. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ BPC-157 isn’t a done deal but it’s getting close. This could be another catalyst for $HIMS, the biggest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ I don’t know what these are but I kind of want them. 3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ What multiple would you put on a company growing revenue at 0.5% annually with declining margins? Does 12x sales and 295x earnings sound fair?