$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $ISHARES S&P MID-CAP ETF/AUS(IJH.AU)$ $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ I’m keeping this simple. The spread in forward P/E between U.S. large caps and SMID caps has blown out again. As of 26Sep25, the S&P 500 sits near 22.5× forward earnings while the S&P 400 and S&P 600 are nearer 17.1× and 16.6×. That’s a double-digit multiple premium for size rather than for quality. The Yardeni-style chart makes it obvious; large caps have rerated while SMID has not. 🧩 Why that matters The JPM data frames it perfectly: the 30-year average forward P/E is 17.0×. Today’s 22.5× means investors are paying a 30%+ premium to history. Ad

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The S&P 500 just clawed back from a brutal three-day skid, but let's cut the fluff—this isn't some gentle correction; it's a stark reminder that the bull run had legs made of nitro. After the Fed's September powwow sparked a quick sugar high, those gains evaporated faster than a meme stock pump. Blame it on scorching jobs reports and consumer spending figures that screamed "no rush on those rate slashes," leaving traders jittery as tech behemoths like Oracle cratered 5% in a single gut punch. Nasdaq's bleeding out on AI hype fatigue, Dow's dragging its blue-chip boots, and suddenly everyone's whispering about overcooked multiples. But here's the real gut check: is

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ I’m fully convinced this FOMC print is a defining pivot in the 2025 macro playbook. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, as expected, with Stephen L. Miran dissenting for a deeper 50 bps cut. This isn’t just a technical adjustment; it signals the beginning of a new policy glide path. 📌 Dot Plot & Projections The Bloomberg dot plot overlay confirms the dovish shift: 2025: 3.625% vs June’s 3.875% 2026: 3.375% vs 3.625% 2027: 3.125% (unchanged) 2028: 3.125% (new) Longer-run: 3.00% (anchored) The visual shows the dots converging lower, aligning with Fed funds futures pricin

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 📅 On 15Sep25 🇳🇿 I’m sharing my Rocket Lab gain, this will lift my total and add to the chain. From 108,869 to 108,879 in line, unrealised P&L +17.47% looks mighty fine. Bitcoin at $115,642 shows bullish art, liquidity flows prove the bulls play their part. 🌌 Breakout confirmed as $RKLB climbs high, IBD50 strength and RS touch the sky. 🚀 $RKLB breaks out of a wedge 3 months long, fundamentals and flows now carry it strong. With $754M cash and 36% YoY rise, Congress is buying while shorts close their eyes. Targets at $75 and $95 this year, trajectory points that the skies are clear. 🚨📑 $RKLB storms t

Here is a structured view of the situation, along with my views and a tentative tactical posture. (These are not investment recommendations, but rather a reasoned framework.) --- 1. Is this a “healthy” pullback? In my view, yes — and in fact I would prefer to see occasional corrective pressures in such a stretched market. Here’s why I lean that way: Supporting arguments for a healthy pullback Overbought conditions: The U.S. equity market has run strongly through September (helped by the Fed’s rate cut). At some point, profit-taking and trimming become natural. Valuation introspection: With many valuation metrics at (or near) extremes, a modest pullback helps “reset” investor expectations. Technical/composure: A shallow, controlled decline (say 3%–5%) is often healthier than letting sentime

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The U.S. equity market has stumbled after an impressive run. For three consecutive sessions, all three major indexes—the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite—have posted losses, giving back their post-Fed September meeting gains. The slide has injected a dose of caution into an environment where investor sentiment had grown complacent. The big questions now: Is this simply a routine pullback? Or is it an early warning sign that valuations have gone too far and that a more substantial correction looms? With economic data still robust, inflation not entirely tamed, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warning about “quite high” stock valuations, the market sits at a crossroads. This article takes a close

📉 Market Down 3 Days! Valuations Too High: Time to Hedge or Stay the Course? 🚀 Introduction – From Euphoria to Anxiety in 72 Hours It only takes a few red days to shift market sentiment. After three straight sessions of declines, U.S. stocks have erased their post-Fed September gains. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all pulled back, with tech giants leading the weakness. Why the sudden change? Powell’s warning that equities look “quite high by many measures” still lingers. Stronger economic data muddied the outlook for future rate cuts. Valuations stretched: Price-to-earnings ratios remain well above historical averages. So the question for investors is timely: Is this just a healthy pullback… or a signal to hedge portfolios against deeper risk? --- 1️⃣ The Bearish View – Valuations Too H

Here’s my take — these are nuanced issues, so I’ll lay out what I see as the balance of probabilities (not certainties). You should treat this more as a strategic counsel than a prediction. --- 1. Is this a “healthy pullback”? I lean yes, it can be viewed as a healthy correction, though not without risks. Arguments supporting a healthy pullback: The U.S. indices had rallied sharply following the September Fed meeting, so some reversion was overdue. The downturn is relatively modest — losses over three days are not unusual in extended bull runs (and indeed, analysts have flagged that three-day declines following records happen with some regularity).  It may help shake out weaker hands, reducing froth and restoring some balance (liquidity, valuations, risk premiums) before the next leg

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Uber(UBER)$ I see breadth erupting into Fed week with the kind of institutional firepower that defines turning points. The convergence of record highs, Musk’s $1B Tesla buy, and a 94% priced-in rate cut sets up a roadmap that could shape Q4 leadership. Institutional Breadth Ahead of FOMC • NYSE: 2,687 advancers vs 1,613 decliners, 717 new highs • Nasdaq: 6,585 advancers vs 4,231 decliners, 1,777 new highs • Up volume: NYSE 630m vs 491m, Nasdaq 11.3bn vs 6.1bn This isn’t noise; it’s accumulation into the Fed. Indices Anchored by Tesla Catalyst • Dow +49 pts (+0.11%) • S&P 500 +0.47% ~ The S&P 5

🌟🌟🌟The US market saw 3 days of red, 1 day of green.    It has just danced through a week of emotional whiplash, rising Friday after a cooler inflation print but still closing the week lower.  The S&P500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Indexes all gave back their post Fed September meeting gains.  Jerome Powell's words linger like a warning bell: "Stocks are fairly highly valued".  Suddenly, the exuberance that defined 2025 feels fragile. Strong economic data, once a source of comfort, now casts doubt on the Fed's rate cut path.  Tech Giants - those symbols of innovation and comfort are stumbling.  Nvidia, Oracle and even Tesla have lost their shine.  Is this a healthy pullback?  Or is it the market's way of asking - Can earnings justify the hype?

[Heart]Hello Tigers,Is the US market curently a Carnival Before the Bubble Bursts or a "Baby Bubble"?[Allin]On September 25, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower for the third consecutive day: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.38%, erasing all gains since the Federal Reserve signaled a "50bp rate cut" on September 18; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped another 0.5%, with a cumulative 1.8% decline over three days; and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ also fell 0.5%, showing obvious short-term pressure.Latest Valuation Check-Up: Big-3 Indexes & Mag-7 at a Glance:TickerLatest Price($)YTD 2025TTW P/EForward P/EAverage P/E in 10 yrsForward P/E VS. Average P/E in 10 yrs

With the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut interest rates at its September 2025 meeting, investors are closely watching how the so-called “Magnificent Seven” (MAG7) mega-cap tech stocks will react. These stocks—Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet (Google)—have been the primary drivers of U.S. equity market returns in recent years. But as monetary policy shifts, their performance trajectory could change.🔍 Historical Pattern: MAG7 Usually Rallies After Rate CutsHistorically, MAG7 stocks have tended to outperform in the months following the start of a Fed easing cycle. For example: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ surged 492% in the 12 months following the 2019 rate cut cycle. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The market is reassessing rate cut expectations. Due to slightly stronger economic data (particularly employment-related indicators), the market has been forced to adjust its expectations for further rate cuts. Some participants are questioning whether the labor market is more resilient than anticipated, leading to a resurgence in the U.S. dollar's strength. The three major indices all hit weekly lows as investors worry that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of rate cuts. Meanwhile, technical corrections and profit-taking emerged in the market, with U.S. Treasury yields (long-end) rising, putting pressure on high-valuation tech and growth stocks.Political pressures on central bank independence, potential U.S. government shutdown, and co

In a public speech in the early morning of September 24, 2025, Powell bluntly stated, "By many metrics, stock prices are quite high."This wasn't his first time warning about valuations, but it was the first time he used the term "quite high" after both $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ hit new all-time highs, instantly sending the question of "are US stocks expensive?" to the forefront of online search.The market also voted with its feet—the Nasdaq fell nearly 1% on the day of his speech, while AI leaders $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ both fell over 2%.1. Are They Expensive? Putting Today’s Data into a Historica

$BlackBerry(BB)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Thursday, September 25, 2025, before the market opens. Revenue: Approximately $122 million - $125 million. This is generally forecast to be a year-over-year decline (around 13-14%), reflecting macroeconomic and automotive sector challenges, despite a slight raise in full-year guidance in the previous quarter. Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share): Consensus is generally around $0.01. Summary of BlackBerry (BB) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings BlackBerry reported a strong quarter that exceeded its guidance across key financial metrics, driven by solid execution in its core software divisions. Key Highlights: QNX Momentum: The Internet of Things (IoT) division, anchored by the QNX operating syst

We saw US stocks notched fresh records on Thursday after the Federal Reserve returned to easing interest rates and signaled further cuts are coming. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ led the gains as Nvidia's $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $5 billion bet on Intel (INTC) boosted spirits. The Nasdaq jumped about 0.9%, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ added 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, moved up 0.3%. Here is a detailed analysis of the most recent Fed (FOMC) meeting, how hawkish or dovish it is, its likely impact on the S&P 500, projected paths over the next 3–6 months, and how investors might position accordingly. What the Recent FOMC Did &

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The market’s eyes are glued to U.S. inflation data this week, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropping Wednesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, alongside lingering jobs concerns after August’s dismal 22,000 job gain. The S&P 500 holds at 6,520.34, Nasdaq at 21,950, and Bitcoin at $123,456, while 10-year Treasury yields dip to 3.65% and the VIX sits at 14.10, hinting at calm before the storm. Posts found on X reflect growing calls for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with 25 basis points (bps) priced in at 88% odds and 50 bps at 11.8%, per CME FedWatch, amid stagflation fears. Has the pullback ended? Will cuts exceed expectations? Is it 25bps or 50bps? Wi

$Jabil Circuit(JBL)$ is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, September 25, 2025. Here is an analysis of what investors should be watching and potential short-term trading opportunities. EPS and Revenue: Analysts are forecasting an EPS of approximately $2.81 on revenue of around $7.6 billion. This would represent a significant year-over-year increase for both metrics, reflecting the company's recent growth trajectory. A meaningful beat or miss on these numbers will likely dictate the initial stock reaction. Summary of Jabil (JBL) Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings Jabil Inc. reported strong fiscal Q3 2025 results on June 17, 2025, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company's performance

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The CPI hit 2.9% as expected, delivering no surprises and fueling a bullish surge for risk assets, with the Nasdaq soaring past 22,150 to a record high and the Dow Jones climbing to 40,980, also a new peak. The S&P 500 sits at 6,590, Bitcoin holds at $125,200, and the VIX drops to 13.80, while oil steadies at $74.20/barrel amid global calm. Posts found on X erupt with “Nasdaq moonshot” excitement, though some caution about “overbought signals.” With rate cut odds at 88% for 25bps and 11.8% for 50bps on September 17, the market’s optimism is palpable. Can rate cuts kick off a new bull market? How do you view both Nasdaq and Dow hitting record highs? This deep dive u