This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

🚨 US-IRAN CONFLICT: THE $150 OIL QUESTION — AND THE CLOCK IS TICKING April 6 is 5 days away. Here’s everything you need to know before the world changes. ⏳ 🌊 The Strait That’s Holding The World Hostage This is no longer just a Middle East conflict. This is a global energy crisis in real time. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of ALL the world’s traded oil and natural gas flows — has virtually ground to a halt since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran retaliated by targeting vessels trying to pass through, and in a stunning move, began charging ships for “safe passage” in what Lloyd’s List Intelligence called a “de facto toll booth regime” — collecting fees in Chinese yuan. 🛳️💸 The result? Bre

The portfolio saw a decline of SGD 26,000 this month, representing a 4.5% loss. Despite this monthly setback, year-to-date dividends have accumulated to SGD 13,000. Market volatility in March was driven largely by escalating conflicts between the US and Iran. I viewed this as an opportunity and increased my positions during the downturn. Following a review of the 2025 financial results, I remain generally satisfied; my portfolio holdings showed high resilience with minimal changes following the earnings announcements. $NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$  $BOC HONG KONG(02388)$   $BABA-W(09988)$  

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

# Go Get Your Own Oil On March 31, 2026, the President of the United States told countries like the UK to go to the Strait of Hormuz and “just take” fuel. He said Iran had been “essentially, decimated” and the hard part was done. He told allies who “refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran” that America wouldn’t be there to help anymore. Then he offered to sell them jet fuel. This was posted on Truth Social. Not in a diplomatic cable. Not through back channels. On social media, like it was a product launch. Five thousand kilometres away, government workers in Thailand were told to take the stairs instead of the elevator to save energy. Vietnam scrapped import duties on petroleum to prevent shortages. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency and moved to a four-day wo

South Korea’s stock market remains under pressure. The KOSPI index has fallen to around 5,052, dropping 4.3% in a single day. Over the past month, it has declined nearly 19%, marking the largest monthly drop since October 2008, and has pulled back more than 20% from its February high. From the perspective of daily performance, Korea-related ETFs broadly came under pressure. Among broad-based products, $韩国ETF-iShares MSCI(EWY)$ and $Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF(FLKR)$ both fell about 3.8%, largely reflecting the decline of the overall market. The actively managed $Matthews Korea Active ETF(MKOR)$ dropped a smaller 3.13%, showing relative resilience. The defense-th

April 6 Deadline:  What Should Investors Do? 🌟🌟🌟As of March 31 2026, the world is on a "tripwire".  With the April 6 deadline nearing and no agreement in sight, the market is bracing for the possibility of Brent Crude Oil hitting USD 120 per barrel or higher if Iran's infrastructure is targeted. The Iranian Response to Trump's Threat: Total Asymmetric Retaliation  Tehran has moved beyond rhetoric, preparing a response that could "irreversibly destroy" the global energy supply chain. Targeting Allies: Iran has threatened to "hammer" the oil and desalination infrastructure of US allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait) if its own power plants are hit. The Minefield Strategy: Reports indicate Iran has already begun planting naval mines in the Straits of Hormuz, effectively making

Historically, U.S. Oil Stocks Still Managed to Hit New Highs Even When Oil Prices Are Falling. Why? A counterintuitive situation is that in the years following the 2022 oil price surge in the U.S., oil prices have been generally falling from 2023 to 2025, yet $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$   's stock price has been hitting new highs year after year. This suggests that factors other than oil price fluctuations must play a significant role in the crude oil market. These factors can be summarized as: 1. Increasing concentration of global oil supply. Due to geopolitical factors, Russia and Iran, two major oil-producing countries, have been excluded from the mainstream oil trading system, gradually constraining their oil pro

There are several separate questions here: oil, geopolitics, market strategy. It is important to separate market narrative from actual probabilities, because markets often exaggerate war scenarios. 1. Will April 6 trigger $150 oil? For oil to reach $150, one of these must happen: Full closure of the Strait of Hormuz Direct U.S.–Iran military confrontation Destruction of major oil infrastructure Insurance and shipping collapse in the Gulf The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. If it is fully blocked, oil can spike very fast, even beyond $150 temporarily. But historically, full closure is extremely unlikely, because it would hurt Iran, China, India, Europe and the global economy simultaneously. More realistic scenarios: Continued tension → Oil $90–110 Limited disrupti

Issued: March 30, 2026 Period Covered: March 23, 2026 → March 30, 2026 1. Macro & Geopolitical Overview Over the past week, global markets have undergone a critical structural regime shift: The marginal anchor for global asset pricing has violently pivoted from "Federal Reserve Rates" to "Commodity Spot Markets." The Concession of Marginal Pricing Power: From Financial to Physical Systems For the past decade, the dominant market variables were: interest rates, liquidity conditions, and central bank balance sheets. In the current phase, these have been temporarily superseded by: spot crude supply, energy transportation capacity, and physical production bottlenecks. This signifies that marginal pricing power has been conceded from the "cost of capital" to the "scarcity of physical resour

The Invisible Geopolitical Friction: Why the $150 Threshold is an Underestimated Baseline While the market remains fixated on the kinetic destruction of Kharg Island, the most critical suppressed variable is the collateral evaporation of global spare capacity. Most analysts are modeling this as a localized Iranian supply shock, but the true systemic risk lies in the "fear premium" now being priced into the Saudi and Emirati buffer zones. Trump's April 6th ultimatum has effectively frozen the decision-making of the OPEC+ core; no producer will increase output while their own desalination plants and loading buoys sit within the potential retaliatory arc of an embattled Tehran. This psychological paralysis means that if the 4,600-megawatt power infrastructure and the Kharg terminals—which han

The war has cut off access to about 20% of the world’s crude oil and another 20% of the liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that normally traverses the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. Oil prices are up about 50% since the war began.The market is starting to price in oil staying higher for longer. Three-month Brent crude futures rose 2% to US$100.79 a barrel. That would be the highest close since the war began—and only the second close above US $100 during the conflict. Though the market had anticipated rates being kept steady, the major indexes fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s median forecast of one interest rate cut for 2026. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday this week said the central b

China looks to restart US energy imports as Iran tensions rattle markets China-bound tankers prepare to load 600,000 barrels of American oil per day, research firm says Trump has used the crisis to highlight burden-sharing: the U.S. is far less dependent on Hormuz oil than Asia (importing mostly from Canada/Mexico), positioning American energy as a stabilizing alternative while pressing allies and rivals alike

Trump's plan to destroy Iran's power plants if no agreement is made has sent shockwaves through the global energy market. The threat targets Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil hub, and could potentially disrupt up to 90% of Iran's crude exports. This move has pushed Brent crude prices above $115 per barrel, with analysts warning of further price surges if the conflict escalates  The impact on oil prices would likely be significant, with JP Morgan estimating that destroying Kharg Island's oil export infrastructure could cut Iran's crude output in half. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, is already under threat, with Iran having closed it to most commercial traffic. Any further disruption could send oil prices soaring, potentially exceeding $200 per barrel&n