With the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike now underway, there is no turning back once the arrow has left the bow. The tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the near term; it may not reverse until a major economic event emerges—such as a recession or a substantial equity-market decline. Accordingly, trading during this period should become more cautious. Should the pace of tightening accelerate, market volatility is likely to increase as well. Over the weekend, I held an in-person discussion with Tiger users in Hong Kong. Based on my U.S. dollar cycle model, this round of Fed tightening is a landmark event signaling that the dollar cycle has entered a new phase. Given widening interest-rate differentials, we may subsequently face an environment of accelerated U.S. dollar appreciation.

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the outlook for gold, Bitcoin, and offshore RMB amid expectations for higher interest rates. The core of this session was how to assess the direction of these assets through cross-asset correlations, while also covering trading strategy execution and adjustments to moving average parameters. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> 空前的高收益率壓力下，為什麼比特幣的低位機會卻很值得關注？ Next, I will summarize the key information and trading-related views from the session, so that readers who did not have time to join can quickly unders

Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.

Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike

The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to

Over the weekend, Iran once again claimed it had blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, after which the U.S. said the Oman shipping lane was still operating normally. For this kind of news about the strait being blockaded or reopened during negotiations, the market has already built up considerable immunity — it was basically fully priced in as soon as Asian markets opened last Monday. So investors need not be overly sensitive to such news; just watch the market's reaction after the open. The relatively important events this week are the Fed Chair's testimony and the release of the CPI data, on which the market will place its bets regarding rate-hike expectations. Although I don't think the Fed will make any major rate-hike move, the market may use the occasion to react ahead of time, causing a c

Since the US and Iran signed the ceasefire memorandum, news of renewed armed clashes between the two sides has emerged again over the weekend. The incident started when some merchant ships failed to navigate along Iran's designated routes, leading to them being intercepted with weapons fire, while the US bombed Iranian regional facilities once again on the grounds that Iran did not adhere to the terms. In reality, the entire process is no different from before the memorandum was signed; they fight and talk to increase their respective bargaining chips, and then pull back to the negotiating table to renegotiate. The rhythm of the entire financial market will continue to be pulled back and forth by relevant news, and investors should prepare for a roller-coaster ride. Of course, for short-te

Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the