After Disappointing Q1, Can Q2 Stage a Rally?

How's your portfolio performing in Q1? What's your trade plan for Q2? Which stock is oversold now?

avatarKYHBKO
05-17

(part 5 of 5) my investing muse (18may2026)

My Investing Muse (18May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies META is preparing to cut about 10% of staff on May 20, nearly 8,000 people, per YF. - X user Unusual Whales 4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not. - X user George Pu Tech layoffs in 2026 so far: Jan - 27,223 Feb - 24,631 Mar - 49,452 Apr - 18,385 May - 9,249 128,940 people in five months. March 2026 was the worst month for tech layoffs in over a year. My thoughts Recent talks between the United States and China appeared to improve short-term stability, but they did not produce a clear resolution to the key issues between both sides.
(part 5 of 5) my investing muse (18may2026)
avatarKYHBKO
04-26

(Full article) Preview of the week (27Apr26)

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the co
(Full article) Preview of the week (27Apr26)
avatarKYHBKO
05-03

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (04May2026)

My Investing Muse (04May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue droppe
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (04May2026)
avatarKYHBKO
04-19

(Full Article) Preview of the week (20Apr26) - Can Dow make it?

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026) Retail Sales Data The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook. Crude Oil Inventories Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand. Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207
(Full Article) Preview of the week (20Apr26) - Can Dow make it?
avatarKYHBKO
05-11

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (11May2026)

My Investing Muse (11May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Klarna was forced to rehire staff after an AI implementation failure. What are the lessons that we can learn? What do we need to navigate with confidence in the AI ocean. How can we avoid these mistakes during our AI deployment? We are seeing a downward trend in job creation. We are expecting more news of layoffs, and some of them, like Amazon, will be massive. Vibe Coding There is mixed feedback about vibe coding. Some developers have admitted defeat when some point to an undesirable outcome. Are there more successes or failures in this domain? Are we jumping too fast into a new solution without a strong, proven track record? Is this a corporate FOMO? US Farmers Are we heading to a “man-made” famine? More importantly, is Am
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (11May2026)
avatarKYHBKO
05-06

What is the weather outlook for 2026? (06May2026)

Key Outlook for 2026: The world faces a high-impact year marked by the likely onset of a strong El Niño event and a significantly elevated risk of a mega earthquake in Japan. These factors combine to create an unprecedented environment for concurrent climate and tectonic disasters with far-reaching implications for societies and economies worldwide. Japan was hit by a 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 02May2026 as I was preparing this article Climate Conditions: Transition to El Niño is highly probable by mid-2026, with a 1-in-4 chance of reaching “Super El Niño” strength by year-end. Global land and sea temperatures are forecast to be above normal nearly everywhere. Regional Weather Impacts: Severe drought and heat: Australia, Indonesia, Central America, Caribbean, northern South America, south
What is the weather outlook for 2026? (06May2026)
avatarJC888
04-06

US Economy - Last Reports Before Earnings.

As the US-Iran war goes into its 6th week of fighting, we have to be mentally prepared for a worsening of the situation, not unless US stick to its peaceful retreat and not execute another foolish stunt. While the world wait for US to exhibit proof of sincerity, it marches on as it is “business as usual”. Is it really so, when everyone is sucked into this black hole - willingly or otherwise ? Below was US reports released for the week ending 02 Apr 2026. This will be a “last” look at the US economy before quarterly earnings season “takeover”. 31 Mar 2026 - Jobs opening & labour turnover surveys (February). 31 Mar 2026 - US Consumer confidence (March). 01 Apr 2026 - ADP non-farm payroll (March). 01 Apr 2026 - US Retail sales (February). 02 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & contin
US Economy - Last Reports Before Earnings.
avatarJC888
03-31

META crashes in a Weak US Market this week ?

The week beginning 30 Mar 2026 marks the closing of Q1 2026 after Tuesday. US market sentiments this week should remain ‘sensitive’ due to the dual pressure of: Cooling technology sector. Persistent inflationary shocks, consequent to the US-Iran conflict, as it enters its 5th week. Investors are entering the week with a "risk-off" posture as US 10-year Treasury yield’s surge to 4.428% (see above) from 2.97% (on 27 Feb 2026), a month ago. While brent oil price has risen to an elevated $112.57 from $71.32 /barrel (on 27 Feb 2026) (see below). This effectively shifts US economy’s narrative from a "soft landing" toward fears of a pronounced stagflationary environment. US market is likely to remain in a defensive "wait-and-see" mode. As of 27 Mar 2026 endday This atmosphere of uncertainty will
META crashes in a Weak US Market this week ?

Focus On Insulation — Sectors With Power To Pass On Rising Costs

The start of the Iran conflict on February 28, 2026, has significantly altered the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ landscape. While historical patterns suggest that geopolitical shocks often lead to short-term volatility rather than long-term bear markets, the specific "transmission channels"—primarily oil prices and inflation—are dictating clear winners and losers across sectors. Sectors Likely to Benefit Energy: This is the most direct beneficiary. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel, driving a 21.7% gain in the sector since February. Investors are utilizing the "inflation playbook," as higher prices boost margins for oil producers and oilfield services. Defense & Aerospace: Heightened geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased military
Focus On Insulation — Sectors With Power To Pass On Rising Costs
avatarKYHBKO
04-26

(Part 5 of 5) my investing muse (27Apr26)

My Investing Muse (27Apr26) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta is laying off 8,000 employees, 10% of its entire global workforce starting May 20, with a second, larger wave planned for the second half of the year. And this morning, Microsoft made a move that is in some ways even more significant. For the first time in its 51-year history, Microsoft is offering voluntary retirement buyouts to roughly 7% of its U.S. workforce, approximately 8,750 employees whose combined age and years of service total at least 70. - X user StockMarket News In the week of April 20-25, 2026, a fresh wave of corporate layoffs—largely AI-driven—hit major firms, continuing 2026’s trend of efficiency-focused cuts: Meta announced plans to lay off ~8,000 employees (10% of workforce) starting May 20, while scra
(Part 5 of 5) my investing muse (27Apr26)
avatarTBI
04-12

[45] LRCX, PM, VST

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[45] LRCX, PM, VST
avatarKYHBKO
03-29

Preview of the week (30Mar2026) - Nike, just "did" it?

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 30Mar2026) The upcoming period features several significant economic developments and meetings that may introduce volatility into financial markets. Notably, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, and his remarks could influence market movements. Labor Market Data Job openings are forecasted at 7.0 million, marking an improvement from the previous figure of 6.9 million. This metric is particularly important given the recent wave of retrenchments and layoffs. Initial jobless claims for March are reported at 210,000, and this statistic will serve as a reference point for the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision. Additional employment data includes the US employment report, which stands at 45,000 for March. The une
Preview of the week (30Mar2026) - Nike, just "did" it?

Relief Rally Weekly: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112; Earnings Season Kicks Off

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112 Relief rally: Major U.S. indexes gained 3–4% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak. Resurgent oil: U.S. crude climbed to ~$112/barrel Friday—highest since mid-2022—amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions. Golden rebound: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ recovered March losses, rising nearly 4% to trade around $4,700 on last friday. Yields reverse course: Treasury yields slipped after four weeks of gains that pushed 10-year rates to eight-month highs. March decline: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell ~5% in March for back-to-back monthly losses;
Relief Rally Weekly: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112; Earnings Season Kicks Off

March Review & April Outlook: Is the Bottom Finally In?

Stocks down. Bonds down. Gold down. March 2026 was the month the playbook stopped working.March delivered something rarely seen: a true indiscriminate selloff. Traditional safe havens and risk assets fell together, leaving investors with almost nowhere to shelter. The numbers were stark — $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed Q1 down 7.11%, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ off 4.63% — but the index figures only tell part of the story.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ briefly touched $4,100, then reversed hard. Silver cratered 27% in a single session on January 30th. The assets you'd normally rotate into when equities wobble... wobbled right along with them.So what actually happened?The Month
March Review & April Outlook: Is the Bottom Finally In?
avatarTBI
04-06

[43] BK, DE, EBAY

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[43] BK, DE, EBAY
avatarTBI
04-06

[44] AON, KVUE, MDLZ

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[44] AON, KVUE, MDLZ
avatarJC888
03-25

Bet your bottom dollar on JPM & BAC ?

It Is True. Recent market intelligence from S&P Global and Nasdaq confirms the assertion that US bank stocks have faced significant downturn in 2026 is both mathematically and fundamentally sound. While the broader market attempted to "climb a wall of worry" early in the year, the banking sector has been the primary casualty of a rapidly shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. The Proof. US bank stocks (among America's largest institutions) have endured sharp year-to-date declines through 20 Mar 2026. It underscores the sector strains from credit pressures and geopolitical shocks and the $KBW Bank Index(BKX)$ is proof. (see below) On 02 Jan 2026, the Nasdaq Bank index opened at $167.06 /share. To date, BKX has fallen by -10.53% (as o
Bet your bottom dollar on JPM & BAC ?

Q2 Won't Be "Straight Line Up". Look At Quality Growth And Energy Sector Strength

The disappointment of 2026 Q1 was largely driven by a "perfect storm" of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, a spike in Brent crude above $100/barrel, and a shift toward a "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative. However, as we enter the first full week of April, the tone is shifting from panic to a "pensive" recovery. Q2 Market Outlook & Sentiment The consensus for Q2 is cautiously bullish. While Q1 felt like "catching a falling knife," analysts see strong support levels forming. The "TACO" Trade: Markets are increasingly pricing in a pivot by the administration (the "Trump Always Comes Off" trade) to prevent an equity meltdown. Earnings Growth: S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 19.1% in Q2, with 9 out of 11 sectors expected to show year-over-year growth. Sentimen
Q2 Won't Be "Straight Line Up". Look At Quality Growth And Energy Sector Strength
avatarTBI
04-06

[1-M] SPY, IWM Outlook

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[1-M] SPY, IWM Outlook
avatarkoolgal
04-01
How I Survive the Brutal Q1 Shakedown & My April 2026 Strategy  🌟🌟🌟As of April 1 2026, the market is catching its breath after a tough first quarter.  The S&P500 has tumbled to 6,300, erasing its early year euphoria and marking a significant retreat from February highs.  While March felt like a non stop horror movie for me, holding a diversified "bunker" of ETFs has been the difference between a total wipeout and a portfolio that is still remarkably in the green. The Hormuz Game: Did Trump Really Blink? I notice a shifting rhetoric from Trump.  While he has set an April 6 deadline to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened, he has simultaneously pivoted to an "America First" stance on security. Trump has publicly told NAT