INVESTING PREVIEW (12Oct2026) III. News and My Investing Muse Energy is driving inflation. Brent crude averaged about $114 in September, while petrol and diesel reached record monthly prices. Core inflation is still easing, but the Fed cannot solve an oil shock with higher interest rates. Car buyers are feeling the pressure. A quarter of new-car loans now run longer than 84 months. The average amount financed is $44,664, with a monthly payment of $787. I’ll be listening for signs that banks are seeing more household stress. A small insurer is flashing a warning. South Carolina is moving to take control of Atlantic Coast Life Insurance after concerns about risky, hard-to-sell investments. The company is not large enough to threaten the wider system, but the case shows how higher rates can e

INVESTING PREVIEW (12Oct02026) II. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 reached a record 7,819 on October 6, breaking above its August high after two quiet months. Still, momentum is weaker than it was in July. The RSI, a measure of market strength, has fallen to 55 from 75. The VIX is also low at 14.8, which suggests investors may be too relaxed ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report. I’m watching three levels: 7,800, 7,700 and 7,550–7,575. Holding above 7,800 would support the breakout. A drop below 7,550 on a Friday close could open the way to 7,350. The trend is still up, but I do not want to chase it before the inflation data. Michael Burry warns that investors are in denial. That may be true, but the market is still at record highs and the trend remains positive. I’m taking

My Investing Muse — Week of October 12, 2026 Three weeks before the midterms, markets have a lot to digest. This week, I’m focusing on what the key numbers mean—and what I plan to do about them. I. Economic and Earnings Calendar Monday is Columbus Day. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open. Big banks start reporting Tuesday, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. UnitedHealth also reports. Wednesday is the key day. September inflation data arrives at 8:30 a.m., alongside results from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. Economists expect headline inflation of 3.6–3.7% and core inflation of 2.4%. The Fed still expects another rate increase this year, but markets see only a small chance of one on October 28. If core inflation runs hott

Despite being political opposites, both portfolios heavily favour AI, Big Tech, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure. Recent disclosures show overlapping exposure to many of the market’s strongest-performing sectors. Shared stock holdings: Pelosi vs Trump Comparison of major overlapping holdings appearing in recent portfolio disclosures and analyses for Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump. Key Similarities Heavy exposure to AI and semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA and Broadcom. Strong focus on cloud and software giants including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle. Both portfolios lean toward companies that benefit from long-term growth in digital infrastructure. Key Differences Pelosi’s disclosed portfolio has historically shown stronger concentration in high-growth technology and options trade

While Bitcoin often dominates the headlines, President Trump's crypto-related ventures have reportedly gained exposure to several established altcoins. Each plays a unique role in the blockchain ecosystem and is worth understanding. 🔹 Ethereum (ETH) – The leading smart contract platform powering DeFi, NFTs, stablecoins, and thousands of decentralised applications. 🔹 Solana (SOL) – A high-speed, low-cost blockchain that's become a hub for DeFi, gaming, payments, and growing institutional interest. 🔹 Chainlink (LINK) – The industry's leading oracle network, enabling smart contracts to securely access real-world data. 🔹 Aave (AAVE) – One of the largest decentralised lending protocols, allowing users to lend, borrow, and earn yield without traditional banks. 🔹 Avalanche (AVAX) – Built for spee

What stands out to me is Trump’s portfolio shift from software into AI hardware, semis, EDA tools, and banks. It reinforces the market narrative moving toward AI infrastructure and capex beneficiaries like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and $Synopsys(SNPS)$ . I get the logic, but I’m cautious about treating the disclosure itself as a signal. When capital flows and political visibility overlap, it can easily amplify short-term sentiment more than fundamentals. Still, it does highlight where attention and liquidity are concentrating right now. On the market side, I think AI-driven EPS growth can still support the $S&P

Noooo, but this can actually help

News and my thoughts from the past week (18May2026) As I predicted on All In, the inflation three-handle is back… the war isn’t ending… the chances of a rate cut are flipping to a rate increase…. our debt is surging FASTER… and Trump’s ratings are at an all-time low. valuations disconnecting from fundamentals to the point of making folks on CNBC telling retail to pump the breaks. The MAGA civil war rages on. A Golden age for the gilded, but the working class remains stalled and forgotten. - X use Jason FT Exclusive: Amazon employees are using an internal AI tool to automate non-essential tasks in a bid to show managers they are using the technology more frequently. The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said t

I think the biggest factor for trump is that he gets to be the one that spikes the shares he buys, having that exclusive first mover advantage works wonders (and common investors can only hope they catch on quickly enough). It might hint at what companies could be the next big hit (considering the white house gets about the freshest and juiciest information), since everyone wants to strike it rich on the next big player, so maybe Dell (and other hardware) is really the play to make?

🔥 The Pulse $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ The White House just dropped a bomb that Wall Street is still digesting: 3,642 trades in Q1 alone, totaling between $220M–$750M, with Trump aggressively rotating OUT of legacy software and INTO $NVDA, $AAPL, $AVGO, and broad S&P 500 exposure. Meanwhile, his Beijing trip ended hours ago with ZERO relief on AI-chip export controls—meaning US semiconductor leaders just got another layer of regulatory moat protection. This isn't a meme portfolio; it's a macro factor bet on AI infrastructure, commodities, and EM reflation. The question isn't whether to follow—it's how to position before the next disclosure

When news out, it could be too slow to follow portfolio rotation and likely get left behind when any changes down the road. Be aware of news lag and continue to trade on own picks.

I would be careful taking that disclosure at face value as a tradable signal. First, 3,642 trades in a quarter, ~58 per day, is not an “investment view” portfolio. It looks like either: delegated/algorithmic execution, structured products rolling, or liquidity/hedging flows. That means the signal-to-noise ratio is low. You are not seeing conviction positions, you are seeing activity. On the rotation itself, selling software and buying hardware (NVDA / SNDK / AVGO) is directionally consistent with what the market has already been doing: bottleneck has shifted to compute, memory, interconnect, AI capex is still accelerating, hardware is nearer-term monetisable than software promises. So the question is timing, not direction. If you follow it blindly now, you are likely late-cycle in position

Keep calm and look for favorable entry opportunities. Scrutinize and make your choices wisely as the market swings really wildly now. 

Trump busy with the Iran war and no role focus in his portfolios. But eventually he will beat the market once things setter down

I would not treat Trump’s portfolio as a signal. With thousands of trades, it reflects high turnover and mandate-driven execution, not conviction. The hardware tilt is directionally right but late. AI bottlenecks still sit in chips and networking, benefiting names like NVIDIA and Broadcom. However, much of that upside is already priced in. On Morgan Stanley SPX 8300 vs Shiller P/E ~42: earnings growth is real, but expectations are stretched. View: Not a full bubble yet Early excess forming Upside remains but fragile Focus on selectivity, not broad chasing.

I would not treat that portfolio as a directional signal. ~3,600 trades in a quarter points to high-turnover, mandate-driven execution, not conviction. At that frequency, you are seeing liquidity management, tax positioning, and model rebalancing. Trying to “follow” or “fade” it is essentially noise trading. The hardware tilt itself is not controversial. NVIDIA, Broadcom, and SanDisk sit at real AI bottlenecks, so earnings visibility is stronger than most software names today. But the key point is timing. That trade worked best 12–18 months ago when supply constraints were underpriced. Now, parts of hardware are priced for sustained scarcity and flawless demand. So: Do not follow the disclosure mechanically Do not reflexively fade it either Use it as confirmation of where capital is cluste

Trump’s “rotation” is not a clean signal. Disclosures are lagged, partial, and likely managed by advisors, so treating them as a trading edge is unreliable. The hardware tilt does reflect reality: AI bottlenecks sit in GPUs, memory, power, and networking. That is where pricing power is strongest today. Software monetisation is lagging as enterprises still test ROI. But following that blindly now is late-cycle behaviour. Much of hardware is already priced for near-perfect demand. On SPX 8300 vs Shiller P/E ~42: the EPS growth story is real, but expectations are stretched. At these valuations, markets need sustained high growth with minimal disruption. Base case: not an immediate bubble pop, but conditions are forming. Upside remains, downside risk is asymmetric. Selectivity matters more th

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