This rebound does not yet qualify as a durable risk-on turn. It has many hallmarks of a positioning reset, not renewed conviction. The scale of the bounce in the S&P 500 looks impressive on the surface, but the underlying signals are less convincing. Elevated implied volatility, below-average participation, and the sharp move in Goldman’s short-bias basket all point to short covering and mechanical flows, rather than long-only re-engagement. When rallies are led by what investors were forced to buy back, rather than what they want to own, follow-through tends to be fragile. The AI angle matters here. The market is increasingly questioning winner-takes-most dynamics, especially in software, where pricing power, differentiation, and customer lock-in are far less assured than in AI infras

Honestly,  I personally feel this could be an classic case of dead cat bounce driven & heavily influenced by short covering—traders exiting bearish bets rather than new long-term buyers. Secondly, this is reminiscent of low convictions: Trading volume during the rebound was approximately 13% below the five-day average, indicating a lack of broad market participation. Thirdly,  trump is causing a whole lot of confusion: implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting investors are still pricing in significant future price swings. Finally, this  requires observing if the price eventually drops below its recent lows. Follow-through in the coming days will be critical in deciding if this move represents seller exhaustion or merely a temporary reprieve aka dead 🐈 syndrome.

Hmmmm, so the question posed is, is Ai a dead cat bounce. I have actually experienced a dead cat bounce. it was way back in the share market crash in 1987. By all means look that up. The initial crash was insane. Black Friday I think we called it. in one day if I recall correctly the market dropped 25%. It was a wee while ago, So the details are sketchy. but I was fine, until I wasn't. I'd sold my biggest stake in a couple of companies a few days prior to the crash. So about 50% of my portfolio was liquid. Come Monday stocks recovered and I pulled the trigger on the new stocks I wanted to buy. From memory I think the market recovered about 5% to 10%. On Tuesday, the market dropped about 50%. That my tiger friends Is a dead cat bounce! From there it just kept getting worse. And it did

The recent $1 trillion rebound in US equities, led by the S&P 500's impressive single-day gain, has certainly caught attention. However, as you've pointed out, the underlying confidence in the market remains fragile. The elevated implied volatility, below-average trading volume, and the significant jump in Goldman's short-bias basket suggest that the rally might be driven more by short covering than genuine investor conviction. The term "dead cat bounce" refers to a brief, false rally in a declining market, often driven by short covering or other technical factors rather than fundamental changes in the market's outlook. Given the current circumstances, it's possible that the recent rebound could be a dead cat bounce, especially if the underlying concerns about the US outlook and the im

We have seen another day of rebounce from the AI, so is this a dead-cat bounce or real turn? Can Cisco earnings change the way narratives played out? $Cisco(CSCO)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, before the market opens. After years of being viewed as a "legacy" networking giant, Cisco has rebranded itself as a pivotal AI infrastructure play. Investors are increasingly bullish, with the stock recently trading near $85 and some analysts, like Evercore ISI, pushing price targets as high as $175. The Numbers to Beat (Consensus Estimates) Revenue: ~$15.11 billion (up ~8.1% year-over-year). Non-GAAP EPS: ~$1.02 (up ~8.5% year-over-year). Guidance (Q2 Range): Revenue of $15.0B – $15.2B; EPS of $1.01 –

Dow Breaks 50k While Tech Bleeds: Will the NFP & CPI Validate the Bull's New Leaders? The past week in the equity markets was one of the most tumultuous in recent memory—a paradox of historic milestones and systemic frailty. On Friday, the $DJIA(.DJI)$   crossed the 50,000 threshold for the first time, a landmark celebrated by the Trump administration on social media as a testament to economic strength. Yet, this "achievement" arrived amidst a persistent and broad-based sell-off across multiple asset classes. Despite a sharp Friday rebound where the $S&P 500(.SPX)$   and $

The breakout is undeniably powerful, but whether it fuels an immediate follow-through gap higher depends on who is doing the buying next. What we are seeing now looks like a classic late-cycle momentum chase. A large portion of the move is driven by sidelined capital capitulating, CTAs and trend followers flipping long, and systematic exposure rebuilding after the recent drawdown. That dynamic can still push indices higher in the near term, especially when positioning rather than fundamentals is the marginal driver. That said, history suggests that breakouts to psychological milestones often invite short-term consolidation rather than a straight vertical continuation. With a substantial portion of annual returns already front-loaded, upside from here is likely to be more selective and narr

$JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPI)$   When the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time in history, it wasn’t just another headline. It was a psychological milestone — the kind that forces sidelined capital back into the market and makes bears rethink their conviction. On Friday alone, markets surged hard: • Dow Jones: +2.47% to 50,115 • S&P 500: +1.97% to 6,932 • Nasdaq: +2.18% to 23,031 This wasn’t a slow grind higher. This was broad-based, aggressiv

$JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPI)$   Jepi sell call on dow etf 

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$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ U.S. stocks exploded to dazzling new heights, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average blasting above 50,000 for the first time ever in a session that left traders buzzing. On that electrifying Friday, the Dow soared 2.47% to close at 50,115, the S&P 500 charged 1.97% to 6,932, and the Nasdaq powered 2.18% higher to 23,031. This surge caps a year of relentless momentum, flipping April's brutal sell-off into record-shattering rebounds as QT liquidity floods and soft inflation data unlocked Fed easing vibes. But as sidelined cash piles in and trend chasers flip bullish, the big debate rages: Does this historic breakout unleash another gap higher this week, or is it time for consolidation after a year's gains crammed into just 15 e

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 09Feb2026) Retail Sales Retail sales data for December is scheduled for release, with the forecast indicating moderate growth at 0.4%. This suggests steady consumer spending as the year closes. Labour Market Indicators Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% increase, reflecting wage growth. The non-farm payrolls for January are forecasted at 70,000, highlighting a moderate pace of job creation. The unemployment rate for January is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month at 4.4%, signalling some stability in the labour market. Energy and Bond Markets Crude oil inventories previously saw a significant drawdown of over 3.4 million barrels. On the fixed income side, both the 10-year note and the 30-year bon

The Dow cracking 50,000 is a big flex, and the market's vibes are definitely bullish right now. When the Dow jumps 2.47% to 50,115 and the S&P & Nasdaq follow suit, it shows strong momentum behind the breakout. Historically, a milestone like this can fuel another gap higher if the fundamentals and investor sentiment stay solid. Traders who bought the dip in the recent selloff are positioning themselves for the next push, hoping the rally keeps rolling instead of stalling into a consolidation phase. The real question is whether this surge is backed by earnings or just hype. If the economic data and corporate results stay strong, we could see US stocks gap higher this week. But if the market's just riding a short‑term hype wave, expect some pullback after the initial rush.

it will edge higher as the US devalues. As simple as that. 

Didn't buy during the selloff but bought before the drop. [Facepalm]  

This looks less like a clean regime shift and more like a classic relief rally layered on fragile foundations. Equities: The breadth and magnitude of the rebound point to forced positioning rather than fresh conviction. CTA de-risking, short covering and options gamma effects likely amplified the move, especially in Big Tech. That explains the speed. It does not yet explain durability. A true risk-on reversal typically follows stabilising macro signals, not precedes them. Precious metals: Gold and silver rallying alongside equities is telling. In a healthy risk-on phase, gold usually lags. Here, gold strength suggests continued demand for protection against policy uncertainty and liquidity stress. Silver’s outsized move looks more like a volatility snapback after capitulation, not a clean