Over the last 40 years, Wall Street has maintained a brutal tradition: giving every incoming Federal Reserve Chair a violent "Welcome to the Market" hazing ritual. ​Let’s look at the tape: ​1. Paul Volcker (Aug 1979) ​Backdrop: The U.S. was facing historically terrifying inflation. ​The Hazing: Volcker came in swinging with an iron-fisted, hawkish approach, hiking rates aggressively. From his start in August to November, the S&P 500 dropped ~10%. It was short-term pain, but he eventually slayed the inflation dragon. ​2. Alan Greenspan (Aug 1987) ​Backdrop: An extended bull market with stretched valuations and the rise of algorithmic trading. ​The Hazing: The most brutal baptism of fire in history. Just two months after he took the keys to the money printer, "Black Monday" hit. On Oct 1

What you are describing is a classic compression phase, not necessarily the end of the trend. When long-end yields spike to multi-decade highs, the immediate effect is mechanical. Discount rates rise, so long-duration assets, especially high-growth tech, get repriced down. That is why the Nasdaq Composite weakens even when fundamentals have not yet deteriorated. But the more important layer is positioning. If hedge funds are already deleveraging and short interest is rising, a fair amount of risk has already been taken out before the event. That changes the payoff structure around NVIDIA earnings. So where does the AI rally “breathe” if both yields stay high and NVDA disappoints? There are three realistic pressure valves: 1. Rotation within the AI stack If NVDA guidance underwhelms, capita

Expecting high volatility,  ponder "buy the rumour, sell the news".

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   U.S. - Iran War News An official statement from Centcom detailed that Iran's offensive against three U.S. warships utilized "multiple missiles, drones, and small boats," but confirmed that "no U.S. assets were struck." The statement further explained that U.S. forces "neutralized incoming threats and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for the attacks, including missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance nodes." The specific targets of the American strikes were not disclosed. The military command emphasized that it "does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces

This is no longer just an earnings story. It is a liquidity and duration problem colliding with a crowded narrative. When 30Y yields push toward cycle highs, three things happen simultaneously: Discount rates rise → long-duration assets like AI stocks compress Equity risk premium becomes less attractive → rotation out of high-multiple names Leverage gets unwound → hedge funds reduce gross exposure, especially in winners That is exactly what you are seeing: AI is not being abandoned, it is being de-risked. So where does the rally breathe if NVDA disappoints? 1. Earnings must shift from “hype” to “cash flow clarity” If NVDA shows not just demand but visible monetisation (margins, backlog quality, pricing power), it can offset yield pressure. Without that, multiples compress. 2. Rotation with

Hitting ATHs signalling to take some profits and sold some stocks in May. Ready to DCA on market pullback.

What do you guys think, I am just sharing to get coins 

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Analysts at TD Cowen think shares in Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) could jump as much as 139% to $400 per share in the next 12 months. The new forecast reflects a $5 per share bump, up from the analysts’ previous $395 price target. TD Cowen’s bullish update comes one day after the company announced it added $2 billion worth of Bitcoin over the previous week. “Strategy’s treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster-than-anticipated Bitcoin accumulation and accretive balance sheet actions driving higher BTC per share and improved financial flexibility,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.  

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Analysts at TD Cowen think shares in Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) could jump as much as 139% to $400 per share in the next 12 months. The new forecast reflects a $5 per share bump, up from the analysts’ previous $395 price target. TD Cowen’s bullish update comes one day after the company announced it added $2 billion worth of Bitcoin over the previous week. “Strategy’s treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster-than-anticipated Bitcoin accumulation and accretive balance sheet actions driving higher BTC per share and improved financial flexibility,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.  

In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character

nvda pull back to ma support. maybe add a little. bet on boomz. even if it goes down... unlikely go under 200. even if go under 200, won't you add?

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Strategy (MSTR) is the Monster Stock to Buy for Late 2026 For the points, this stock will rebound a couple of times to $230 in the next 3 months. 2026 has hardly brought any respite to the Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), formerly known as MicroStrategy, stock. Even though the stock is up nearly 10% this year, the performance has been rather flat over the last month. Even then, an analyst has raised its price target on the Strategy stock due to two reasons. Strategy's quarterly loss prompts possible strategy shift Founded as a software company in 1989, the Michael Saylor-led company turned to Bitcoin amid the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. It now holds 843,738 BTC on its balance sheet, consolidating i

Every year the same old phrase about selling in May and walking away, but blindly following a historical trend may not be the best idea this year. The reality of today's market is built on completely different engines than the past, and there are incredibly solid reasons why a sell in May isn't as likely or not to that extend this year. For a start, looking at corporate spending, the largest tech hyperscalers have collectively locked in nearly seven hundred billion dollars in infrastructure budgets for this year alone, and roughly three-quarters of that is tied directly to physical AI buildouts. This are massive, contracted physical infrastructure that doesn't just stop because the calendar turned to May.The race to AI supremacy is real. On top of that, look at the corporate receipts. Ear

In the May, I will hold. But will base on the reactions to the policies rolled by the new fed chair and reactions from Mr market. Afterall, nothing is certain, the market needs to down so that we can replenish our positions [Happy]

Buy the dip, the ai market still  growing at the expecially exceptionally speed

no trim. keep long term

🌟🌟🌟Sell in May and Go Away?  I don't think so.  Not when $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is reporting its latest quarterly report today!  The global markets are holding their breath to see if Jensen Huang can single handedly ignite another massive technology supercycle or send everyone running for safety. Adding rocket to the fuel is Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair.  He takes the wheel at a time where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent energy prices spiralling, resulting in high inflation. Add or Trim NVIDIA?  I vote ADD.  Why? 3 reasons: Blackwell & Rubin Supercycles.  Jensen said that NVIDIA has locked in at least USD 1 Trillion in orders for both chips, through to end of 2027. Big Tech Capex: Hyperscalers are ac

1. I have a long position in the market $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 2. Sell in May recommends selling $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ which is a consideration. 3. I have a long position in the market $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ which I will sell 4. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ may fall in share price this week due to underperformance

Powell was appointed by Trump during his first term as President. The entire world knows the greed of Trump and how he was pressuring Powell to reduce the interest rates to promote investment. However, Powell resisted this as an independent decision maker to reduce inflation economy despite open threats of his removal by Trump. The new appointee Marsh may not be able to dictates of Trump as he has only a casting vote to lower or increase interest rates. If the interest rates go down then AI and Cripto shares will bounce but if investors lose confidence in independence of Federal Reserve it could be counter productive. Gulf war is impacting the world as such the market will see-saw on daily basis.