Live Highlights: U.S. Stocks' Last Dance Before Q4 Risks Erupt and 3 Top Trades
Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger Futures to discuss shifts in the broader U.S. stock market. I covered the U.S. Dollar Index, including its historical patterns and outlook, and shared trading strategies for currencies, crude oil, and gold. If you missed the session, watch the replay here >> 美股指新一輪的上升浪終於開始了?標普的反彈目標位會達到多少? Below, I have summarized the key market insights and trading views by topic, so those who missed the session can quickly understand my current outlook. First, a brief introduction: Cheng Jun is a professional trader and guest lecturer at CME Group. He previously served as General Manager of Gold Hea
$Amazon (AMZN) Drops -4.57%: Profit-Taking Hits Cloud Giant, Support Battle Begins at $228
📊 Market Recap As of the latest close on October 23, 2026, 'AMZN' settled at $250.38, down -4.57% (-$11.99). The stock faced intense selling pressure after opening at $258.18, sliding from a high of $258.41 to a low of $248.00, with an amplitude of 3.97%. The close leaves the shares roughly 12.8% below the 52-week high of $287.20. 🚀 Key Drivers Broad Tech Selloff: Profit-taking intensified across mega-cap technology names, dragging high-multiple leaders like 'AMZN' lower despite a lack of company-specific negative headlines. Capital Flow Reversal: After four consecutive sessions of outflows, the stock logged a modest net inflow on October 21 before sellers returned, with large orders showing net selling pressure. Valuation Digestion: With a TTM P/E near 20 and a Forward P/E of 20.48, the m
$Cerebras Systems(CBRS) Plunged -7.66% to $108.94: AI Chip Star Drops to 52-Week Low as Bearish O...
📊 Market Recap As of October 23, 2026, 'CBRS' closed at $108.94, tumbling -7.66% with a change of -$9.04. The stock hit a fresh 52-week low of $107.90 during the session, now trading about 71.8% below its 52-week high of $386.34. Heavy derivative-driven selling and deteriorating momentum have pushed the AI chip maker into a deep technical breakdown, with near-term sentiment firmly bearish. 🚀 Key Drivers Bearish Options Flow: Repeated large put orders have pressured sentiment, including a $2.41 million in-the-money put targeting downside near $135 and an $8.59 million same-direction short put combo at $175/$170 strikes, signaling traders expect upside to stay limited. OpenAI Partnership Uncertainty: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently called Cerebras a "close partner," but earlier reports that O
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Drops -4.52% to $412.35: AI Giant Testing $410 Support, $433 Resistan...
📊 Market Recap As of the latest close on October 23, 2026, 'TSM' settled at $412.35, down -4.52% with a decline of $19.54. The stock opened at $419.39, reached a high of $421.91, and slid to a low of $410.22, finishing near the day's bottom. The closing price now sits about 15.4% below its 52-week high of $487.47, indicating that the upward momentum from the AI semiconductor boom has faced a sharp cooling-off period. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Sentiment Consolidation: After a prolonged rally driven by AI chip demand, 'TSM' is undergoing a high-level correction as investors lock in profits amid valuation concerns. Capital Outflow Pressure: The 5-day capital flow data shows consistent net outflows on multiple sessions, including -$65.94 million on October 15 and -$18.16 million on October 16, reflecti
$Marvell Technology (MRVL) Plunged -8.70%: AI Data Center Darling Retreats to $223, Is the $196 S...
📊 Market Recap As of October 23, 2026 (ET), 'MRVL' closed at $223.47, tumbling -8.70% with a trading volume of 24.76 million shares and a volume ratio of 1.31. The closing price sits 32.3% below its 52-week high of $329.88, while still holding far above the 52-week low of $70.69. The sharp decline pushed the 6-day RSI into oversold territory, suggesting intense short-term selling pressure. 🚀 Key Drivers Analyst Skepticism After Investor Day: Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating and a $270 target after Marvell's Investor Day, stating that valuations had priced in most of the optimism despite management's long-term target exceeding Wall Street consensus. Capital Outflow Signals: Five-day capital flow data shows mixed movements, with a net outflow of $38.00 million on October 16 and $12.
$QQQ Drops -2.86% to $704.47: Nasdaq 100 ETF Tests $690 Support After Profit-Taking
📊 Market Recap As of the close on October 23, 2026, 'QQQ' (Nasdaq 100 ETF) settled at $704.47, down -2.86% (-$20.73) for the session. The ETF traded in a range of $701.90 to $715.43, closing roughly 7.7% below its 52-week high of $762.86 but still well above its 52-week low of $555.60. The sharp decline follows a failed attempt to hold above the $725 level, with after-hours price slipping further to $703.34. 🚀 Key Drivers Profit-taking in megacap tech: Heavy selling pressure hit large-cap technology names, dragging the Nasdaq 100 lower as investors locked in recent gains. Elevated volume and turnover: Volume ratio came in at 1.46 with turnover of 9.36%, indicating aggressive distribution rather than passive drift. Capital outflow acceleration: Five-day capital flow data showed outflows on
The $SPX Is Near All-Time Highs. High-Beta Momentum Is Down 41%
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is just ~1% below its highs, yet Goldman’s High Beta Momentum basket has plunged 41%. Meanwhile, semiconductors have fallen 26% relative to the $SPX from their relative highs. Over the past 20+ years, only three episodes went meaningfully deeper: 2008 financial crisis 2022 bear market Liberation Day sell-off 👇 Watch $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This is a massive divergence beneath the surface. The headline index looks resilient, but high-beta momentum and semiconductors tell a very different story. When leadership deteriorates this sharply while t
Gold is Currently in a Phase of Fluctuating Downward Movement
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Due to the intraday oversold conditions, gold is likely to attempt an upward correction during the early U.S. trading session, with targets in the 4140–4145 range. It has currently reached a high of around 4141.8. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ However, since the overall bearish trend has not yet reversed and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains at its intraday high of 101.73, gold is likely to fail to sustain its rebound at this resistance zone. It will then test the lows again and is likely to break below 4,106, moving directly toward the 4,100 psychological level or even t
$Amazon (AMZN) Consolidates Near $262: AI and AWS Momentum Build, $270 Breakout in Focus
📊 Market Recap As of October 22, 2026, 'AMZN' closed at $262.37, down -0.10% on the day. The stock remains roughly 8.6% below its 52-week high of $287.20, while holding well above its 52-week low of $196.00. Price action is consolidating in a tight range, with resistance near $270.4 and support around $236.3. 🚀 Key Drivers AWS and AI Demand: Continued enterprise cloud adoption and AI workload expansion support Amazon's long-term growth narrative. Analyst Sentiment: Morgan Stanley recently raised its Amazon price target from $335 to $350, reinforcing bullish institutional views. Broader Market Uptrend: The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.00% on October 21, reflecting improving risk appetite for large-cap technology names. 🎯 Price Outlook Short-Term Upside/Downside Probability Direction Probabilit
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA) +1.54% Near 52-Week High: Cancer Vaccine Momentum Builds, $254 Breakout in F...
📊 Market Recap As of the close on October 22, 2026, 'MRNA' finished at $245.81, up +1.54% or $3.73 on the day. The stock is trading within 3.4% of its 52-week high of $254.48, set during the same session, reflecting sustained momentum behind its mRNA cancer vaccine pipeline narrative. With a market capitalization near $98.14 billion, 'MRNA' has become one of the most closely watched large-cap biotech turnaround stories of the year. 🚀 Key Drivers Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough: Positive Phase III data for Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine combined with Keytruda has reshaped the company's oncology narrative, driving a more than 650% surge in the stock year-to-date. NIH Partnership Catalyst: News that the National Institutes of Health is joining a public-private partnership to accelerate cancer vacc
VIX: The Black Trendline Over the Last 18-month has been Effectively Broken
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Let me be as simple and clear as possible: IF by today's close, $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is higher than 18.50, then bears will have a wild run for a few days. 2 $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$=18.75 > 18.50. The black trendline over the last 18-month has been effectively broken. The next two targets are (1) 21-25 gap--which I strongly believe market would get there by the end of October. (2) 34-36 gap--that would take some extra efforts from geo-political front
Stop the Panic: AI’s 10-Year Buildout Is Only 2–3 Years In—So Why Is the Market So Indecisive?
Money yet again flowing into defensives and homebuilders and out of the AI infrastructure trade as risk appetite switches by the day. This has to be the most indecisive market ever? What more evidence can the market want at the moment? $SpaceX(SPCX)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ single-handedly reminded (yes reminded...nothing changed from before) of the insatiable demands. Yet still by day 3 sentiment looking more positive here we are again. We're in a period where it seems like the market and investors are unsure what to bet on. Either it's the claims and posted financials from the biggest, most AI centric companies in the world and their management... or claims and "research" from
Put-Write Trades on Bloom Energy Earnings: Nov 20 110–150 Strikes Eyed Amid Market Bloodbath
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you! 1 Anyone taking an optionselling trade on $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ to play earnings today, amidst this market bloodbath? Was 👀 put-write trades on the Nov 20 expiration, strikes in the 110-150 range. 150 is volume point-of-control, and there looks to be a decent volume support cluster in that range.
Alright we are in the extreme fear category BUT no real panic yet. There's still lots of pressure on Semiconductor and AI related stocks. I think we see one more flush before FOMC next Wednesday before we start to carve out a bottom. The fact that $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ broke under last Friday's lows is not a good sign for tech. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ under 700 we can see 693,685 next. $SPX to 7500 in play if it breaks under 7620 as well. Tread lightly and make sure you're not going all in BEFORE FOMC. That's how you get cooked. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ can drop to 500 on the next leg lower, this is most likely where a
ONDS, META, FIX, BE& AMD: It's the Time to Wake Up🤣
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ on bounce watch 👀 2 Someone check on Leopold 😬 $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ DUMPING ON A DOUBLE BEAT + RAISE 🩸 Q3 Adj. EPS: $0.94 vs $0.68 est ✅ Q3 Sales: $1.236B vs $1.053B est ✅ Raised FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance ✅ Raised FY2026 Sales Guidance ✅ 🟥 -6.88% in after-hours 3 $Comfort Systems USA(FIX)$ EARNINGS DOUBLE BEAT & DUMPING🩸 Q3 EPS: $13.91 vs $12.50 est ✅ Q3 Sales: $3.766B vs $3.401B est ✅ 4 Three oversold readings. Three explosive rebounds. $Ondas Holdings Inc.(
$Oracle (ORCL) Slipped -2.78%: AI Cloud Giant Pulls Back, Is $120 the Last Line of Defense Before...
📊 Market Recap As of the close on October 23, 2026 (US Eastern Time), 'ORCL' settled at $125.54, down -2.78% for the session. The stock is now trading roughly 56.3% below its 52-week high of $287.19 but remains about 9.6% above its 52-week low of $114.50. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Cloud Growth Narrative: Oracle remains a key beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, with recent energy service agreements highlighting its aggressive data center expansion in power-constrained regions. Profit-Taking After Premium Run: The stock is consolidating after a strong prior uptrend, with capital flow data showing sustained large-order outflows over the past week as investors lock in gains. Macro Pressure on High-Multiple Tech: Rising rate expectations and rotation away from expensive software names are wei
$Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Slumps -5.20%: AI Server Leader Tests $32 Support After Failed...
📊 Market Recap As of the latest US Eastern Time close, 'SMCI' settled at $33.72, down -5.20% on the day, with a turnover of 43.80 million shares and a volume ratio of 0.92. The stock remains about 38.2% below its 52-week high of $54.53, while holding roughly 73.1% above its 52-week low of $19.48. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Server Sentiment Shift: Profit-taking pressure hit AI hardware names, with 'SMCI' underperforming after a failed attempt to sustain momentum above the $35 level. Capital Outflow Signal: Five-day capital flow data shows consistent net outflows, including -1,785.06 on the most recent heavy distribution day, indicating institutional caution near-term. Valuation Reset in Focus: With a forward P/E near 7.74, the market appears to be repricing execution risk for AI server makers despite
📊 Market Recap As of the latest close on October 23, 2026, 'AAOI' (Applied Optoelectronics Inc.) tumbled -11.96% to $68.07, with an intraday range of $66.28 - $73.15. The stock sits roughly 71% below its 52-week high of $233.67, though still well above its 52-week low of $18.50. The sharp sell-off came on elevated turnover of 16.58% and a volume ratio of 1.16, reflecting intense distribution pressure after the prior session's close at $77.32. 🚀 Key Drivers Momentum Collapse: The stock gapped lower from a pre-market level of $72.54 and accelerated through the $70 psychological handle, triggering aggressive technical selling. Capital Outflow Signal: One-day capital flow shows total outflow of $321 million versus inflow of $310 million, with large orders selling $42.41 million against buying
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR) Drops -2.74% to $196.19: AI Defense Leader Consolidates Below $...
📊 Market Recap As of October 23, 2026, 'PLTR' closed at $196.19, down -2.74% on the day. The stock remains approximately 7.9% below its 52-week high of $212.94, showing a clear consolidation phase after failing to hold the $200 psychological level. 🚀 Key Drivers Profit-Taking Pressure: After a strong run toward $207 earlier in the week, large-order selling outweighed buying ($183M vs $161M), triggering a pullback toward the $194-$196 zone. Elevated Valuation Scrutiny: With a TTM P/E of 167.79 and P/S of 76.40, investors are increasingly sensitive to any growth slowdown, amplifying intraday volatility. Institutional Inaction: Major holders like BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street showed zero net share changes, reducing short-term buying catalysts. 🎯 Price Outlook Short-Term Upside/Downsid
$Nebius Group N.V.(NBIS) Plunged -7.23%: AI Infrastructure Stock Crashes Through $160 Pivot, $155...
📊 Market Recap As of October 23, 2026, 'NBIS' closed at $159.17, down -7.23% on the day with a turnover rate of 9.52%. The stock is now trading approximately 46.9% below its 52-week high of $299.86, while remaining about 116.5% above its 52-week low of $73.52. After-hours trading showed further weakness at $156.25. 🚀 Key Drivers Heavy Capital Outflow: Five-day capital flow data shows persistent net outflows, with October 21 recording -$44.51 million and October 16 showing -$108.66 million, indicating sustained institutional distribution. Valuation Reset Pressure: With a TTM P/E of 968.99 and Forward PE of -79.06, the AI infrastructure premium is undergoing a sharp repricing as growth expectations collide with technical breakdown. Short Interest Normalization: Short volume ratio declined fr