To The Moon

With the February PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data scheduled for release on April 9 and the March CPI (Consumer Price Index) following on April 10, the market is entering a high-stakes 48-hour window that will likely dictate the narrative for the rest of Q2 2026. As of today, April 8, the anticipation of these back-to-back reports is the primary driver of current volatility. Here is how these releases are expected to shape market movements. Immediate Impact: The "Inflation One-Two Punch" The timing of these releases is unique, as they cover two different reference months (February and March) in consecutive days. This creates a high probability of a "re-pricing" event. Scenario A: Hotter-than-Expected Data If either report shows inflation sticking above the 3% mark (current fore

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea