The Seagate print reinforces why the storage complex remains one of the cleanest AI infrastructure trades, but it also sharpens the distinction between fundamental winners and momentum excess ahead of SanDisk and Western Digital. What Seagate’s Beat Really Signals Seagate Technology beating on both EPS and revenue confirms three important trends: 1. AI demand is real and broad-based, not confined to GPUs. Training and inference workloads are driving sustained demand for high-capacity, nearline storage. 2. Pricing power has returned, particularly in enterprise HDDs, as supply discipline meets structurally higher demand. 3. Operating leverage is kicking in. Storage is a brutal business during downturns, but margins expand rapidly when utilisation tightens. This sets a constructive backdrop f
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Breakout to Record High Confirms Bullish Momentum
The S&P 500 (SPX) has advanced to a new all-time high, confirming that the bullish sequence from the November 21, 2025 low remains intact. This breakout favors more upside in the near term. The rally from that low is unfolding in a clear five-wave structure, consistent with Elliott Wave analysis. Wave ((i)) ended at 6986.33, marking the first leg of strength. The pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a zigzag correction. Within this phase, wave (a) ended at 6885.74, wave (b) rallied to 6979.34, and wave (c) declined to 6788.03. This completed wave ((ii)) at a higher degree. From there, the index resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Wave (i) advanced to 6934.75, while wave (ii) pulled back to 6895.5. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 6988.82. A short-term pullback in wave (iv) is expected, but b
ASML's Bookings Explosion: A Wake-Up Call for the Entire Semi Equipment Sector Global lithography leader $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ has released its latest Q4 earnings, sending the stock soaring in pre-market trading. Let's look under the hood to see the true quality of this report. Three Things to Watch Net Bookings Explode: The Memory Sector Begins an Epic Expansion Wave ASML delivered a blowout number for Q4 net bookings at €13.16 billion. This represents an 86% year-over-year increase and a staggering 144% quarter-over-quarter jump, obliterating the market consensus of just €6.795 billion. Specifically, EUV bookings came in at €7.4 billion, up 147% year-over-year. The total backlog at the end of the quar
I see the new Monday/Wednesday options mainly as short-term tactical tools, not something to trade aggressively. The extra expiries allow tighter positioning around specific catalysts like macro headlines or post-earnings moves, without overpaying for time value. I’d mostly use them in defined-risk spreads rather than straight long options. From the eligible names, I’m most interested in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ . Both tend to show strong short-term momentum and active Gamma behavior, which fits Mon/Wed expiries well. NVDA often reacts quickly to AI-related news, while META works nicely for short-term volatility or quick Nasdaq hedges. Between the two, Wednesday expiries suit my
I read Pelosi’s trade as risk management, not a tech bearish call. Trimming $Apple(AAPL)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ after a strong run while rolling exposure into LEAP calls is a smart way to lock in gains and stay positioned for long-term upside with less capital at risk. It’s about efficiency and optionality, not exiting tech. For retail investors, the lesson isn’t to copy congressional trades, but to understand the thinking behind them. Most retail traders can’t size or structure trades the same way, so blindly following disclosures rarely works. What does help is learning when to take profits and how to maintain exposure without overcommitting capital. $UnitedHealt
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Historically, breaking all-time highs has often preceded further gains rather than immediate reversals. Studies of periods following new record closes show the index posting positive returns in the large majority of cases over subsequent 3–12 months and longer horizons, with average forward gains in the double digits in some analyses (e.g., positive in 13 of 14 observed instances in one review, averaging ~14%). Bull markets can persist for years once momentum builds, supported by compounding earnings growth, especially in a tech/AI-led environment. Supportive factors for further upside: Continued strong corporate earnings growth (particularly in Magnificent 7/tech sectors driving recent rallies). Stable or declining rates post-
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ ASML's Q4 2025 results align closely with the details provided. The company reported Q4 net sales of €9.7 billion (record), gross margin of 52.2%, and net income of €2.8 billion. Full-year 2025 net sales reached €32.7 billion (up ~16% YoY implied) with a 52.8% gross margin and €9.6 billion net income. Net bookings in Q4 hit a record €13.2 billion (nearly double consensus expectations around €6.3 billion), including €7.4 billion from EUV systems; the year-end backlog stood at €38.8 billion (with ~€25.5 billion EUV). Revenue in Q4 included two High-NA EUV systems. 2026 growth appears locked in based on guidance and CEO commentary. ASML guided 2026 total net sales to €34–39 billion (roughly 4–19% growth from 2025's €32.7 billi
🔥📊🧠 $SPX Above 7,000: Liquidity Regime Confirmed, $RUT Signal Active, Flow and Positioning Still Supportive 🧠📊🔥
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ 28Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 29Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿 🧠 Cross-Asset Regime and Liquidity Signal I’m tracking a clear two-phase market regime driven by liquidity expansion, risk appetite, and flow rotation. Extended $RUT win streaks historically create a short-term momentum tailwind for $SPX, producing +1.49% one-month forward returns versus +0.83% under normal conditions. Current price action confirms risk-on positioning, capital migration, and large-cap flow reinforcement. 💧 Small-Cap Momentum, Flow Persistence, and Relative
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ ⚡📊🧠 Tesla Earnings Day, Structure Tightens as Volatility Nears Release ⚡📊🧠 🧠 Market Context and Regime Setup I’m treating today as a regime-defining event for $TSLA. Price, volatility, liquidity, and narrative timing are converging into a high-tension compression zone. This is the type of setup where chop resolves into trend, where the market stops negotiating and starts committing. 📈 Technical Structure and Price Behaviour I’m tracking a constructive double bottom forming near $431, signalling responsive demand after the prior drawdown from the $490–$500 supply zone.
$TSLA earnings tonight key points: Bottom line: I expect the stock to be flat to up on earnings. In the end, investors who believe in Tesla's view will be unchanged after earnings. ➡️When the numbers hit the first two factors that investors will be focused on is ASP's in a post tax credit world and gross margins. ➡️ASP in Sep were $41.8K ➡️Auto margins ex credits are expected to be 13.6%. ➡️That compares to 15.4% in Sep, 15% in June and 12.5% in March. I expect margins will end 2025 closer to 15%. The meat that investors are looking for will come on the earnings call. ➡️How many cities will roll out this year for Robotaxi without a safety driver. Elon had said they would add 6-8 cities previously. ➡️There is little he will say on Optimus or FSD in Europe in China beyond what he s
From a trend perspective, $16.5 needs to hold. The secondary indicators are not favourable and the likelihood of a reversal in trend is high. The volume is also low, indicating that the speculators have moved on. In the short term, if there’s no further news to excite the market, CRML might indeed be consolidating or even correct its pricing. On the commercial front, the company has completed all its off take deals (100%), so there’s no more deals to make on this front. The only progress it could show is from its continued exploration success and pilot plant development. The surprise (good or bad but beyond its control) for this company is always Trump and its government’s interest in either Greenland 🇬🇱 or the miner itself. Need another week or so to see the trend flow…
$CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION(CRML)$ What's happening now? Will we be seeing above 20 again? Or will it go down all the way back to where it came from? Please share your thoughts
🌟🌟🌟A wild high stakes earnings week is unfolding this week. Here is my prediction for 4 of the Mag 7 post earnings: Apple - C: Slight Dip. This is because of investor anxiety over profit margins and a lack of clear monetisation AI strategy. Concerns about a potential slowdown in iPhone demand in key markets like China. Tesla - B Slight Gain: Despite declining vehicle sales & margin pressures, TSLA found support in investor optimism about future ventures like Robotaxi business & AI initiatives. Energy storage division is a bright spot with higher profit margins. Microsoft - C: Slight Dip. MSFT is weighed down by investor unease regarding rising capital expenditure needed to build AI & Cloud infrastructure at large scale. Meta - C Slight Dip: This reflect
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ⚡🚀 $TSLA EARNINGS BEAT, VOLUME EXPLOSION, FLOW IGNITION 🚀⚡ Tesla just delivered a clean earnings beat and the tape reacted instantly. This is the kind of print that flips momentum, triggers flow, and wakes up volatility. 🟢 EPS $0.50 vs $0.45 expected 🟢 Revenue $24.9B vs ~$24.7B expected 📈 After-hours surge toward ~$446 🔥 Volume expansion, gamma unwind, positioning squeeze This move is not just fundamentals, it is liquidity rotation, derivatives pressure, and sentiment regime shift. Market makers are adjusting exposure, options flow is re-pricing risk, and price is responding wi
SoFi Hitting $30? - Bull Put Spread -> "Tug-Of-War" Phase
With $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ coming up on 30 Jan Pre-market, will we see it creating another exceptional run after its earnings? SoFi is heading into its Q4 2025 earnings report (scheduled for January 30, 2026) in a bit of a "tug-of-war" phase. While the company has fundamentally transformed into a profitable bank, the stock's recent performance and valuation suggest that the market is demanding perfection. Here is the breakdown of whether we’re looking at another "exceptional rally" or "heavy volatility." The Bull Case: Why an Exceptional Rally is Possible SoFi has a habit of "sandbagging"—providing conservative guidance and then blowing past it. For an exceptional rally to occur, they likely need to hit these three notes: EPS "Super-Beat"
My stock in focus today is Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, as the market is shifting from EV delivery metrics toward its AI-led future. Elon Musk emphasized that Tesla’s long-term value lies in autonomous driving, robotics, and AI, even suggesting a potential in-house chip fab—reinforcing Tesla’s positioning as a vertically integrated AI company, not just an automaker. Tesla disclosed 1.1 million FSD subscribers out of 8.9 million vehicles, a ~12% penetration rate. Musk said FSD is already running fully unsupervised in Austin, with Robotaxi services targeted for 1H 2026 across multiple U.S. cities. This pivot is backed by aggressive investment, with 2026 capex exp
🚘🤖⚡ Tesla’s Great Pivot, From EV Cycles to AI, Autonomy, Energy, and Robotics at Scale
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 28Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 29Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿 $TSLA Q4 FY2025 Earnings This earnings cycle confirmed Tesla is no longer reporting as a car company. It is transitioning into an autonomy, AI, robotics, and energy platform, with automotive now serving as the cash engine funding the next S-curve. 🧠 Strategic Reframe, The Shift to “Amazing Abundance” Tesla formally reframed its mission toward “amazing abundance,” signalling a long-term objective centred on automation, robotics, AI-driven productivity, and falling m
🌟🌟🌟Hong Kong IPO market is on fire with 4 upcoming IPOs. I like $HANSCNC(03200)$best as Han's CNC is China's largest PCB production equipment manufacturer with 10.1% market share. PCB equipment is essential for: Servers & data centers, EVs, mobile phones, semiconductors and consumer electronics. This is a structural growth industry, not a cyclical one. Han's CNC attracted USD 3.1 billion worth of big institutions such as GIC. This is a vote of confidence. If you want the IPO with the strongest combination of growth, scale, industry positionin
Bernstein, a global financial powerhouse, has identified $AT&T Inc(T)$ as a "Top Pick" within the telecommunications sector. The firm’s optimistic stance is rooted in AT&T’s successful execution of its "convergence strategy"—the bundling of wireless and fiber services. Bernstein highlights that approximately 41% of AT&T’s fiber customers now also subscribe to its wireless services. This synergy is a critical value driver, as bundled customers typically exhibit significantly lower churn rates and higher lifetime value compared to single-product users. The Plus Points. Furthermore, Bernstein points to the company's aggressive fiber expansion, which has already reached over 31 million locations, with a long-term goal of 60 million by 2030. T