To The Moon

My Investing Muse (18May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies META is preparing to cut about 10% of staff on May 20, nearly 8,000 people, per YF. - X user Unusual Whales 4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not. - X user George Pu Tech layoffs in 2026 so far: Jan - 27,223 Feb - 24,631 Mar - 49,452 Apr - 18,385 May - 9,249 128,940 people in five months. March 2026 was the worst month for tech layoffs in over a year. My thoughts Recent talks between the United States and China appeared to improve short-term stability, but they did not produce a clear resolution to the key issues between both sides.

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace

My Investing Muse (11May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Klarna was forced to rehire staff after an AI implementation failure. What are the lessons that we can learn? What do we need to navigate with confidence in the AI ocean. How can we avoid these mistakes during our AI deployment? We are seeing a downward trend in job creation. We are expecting more news of layoffs, and some of them, like Amazon, will be massive. Vibe Coding There is mixed feedback about vibe coding. Some developers have admitted defeat when some point to an undesirable outcome. Are there more successes or failures in this domain? Are we jumping too fast into a new solution without a strong, proven track record? Is this a corporate FOMO? US Farmers Are we heading to a “man-made” famine? More importantly, is Am

Market Outlook of S&P500 (11May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.40, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcomi

Key Outlook for 2026: The world faces a high-impact year marked by the likely onset of a strong El Niño event and a significantly elevated risk of a mega earthquake in Japan. These factors combine to create an unprecedented environment for concurrent climate and tectonic disasters with far-reaching implications for societies and economies worldwide. Japan was hit by a 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 02May2026 as I was preparing this article Climate Conditions: Transition to El Niño is highly probable by mid-2026, with a 1-in-4 chance of reaching “Super El Niño” strength by year-end. Global land and sea temperatures are forecast to be above normal nearly everywhere. Regional Weather Impacts: Severe drought and heat: Australia, Indonesia, Central America, Caribbean, northern South America, south

My Investing Muse (04May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue droppe

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 04May2026) International Market Closures China will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country observes Labor Day celebrations. This holiday may impact trading volumes and activity in Asian markets during these days. Key U.S. Economic Indicators The S&P Global Services PMI for April is projected to be 51.3, indicating an expansionary trend in the global services sector. New home sales data for March will be released, offering valuable insight into the current health of the real estate market. Several labour market indicators are scheduled for release in the coming week. JOLTS job openings for March will be published, with the previous figure at 6.882 million. This data will serve as an important reference for the

good summary by my Substack friend Tiger Capital Research. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$  

My Investing Muse (27Apr26) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta is laying off 8,000 employees, 10% of its entire global workforce starting May 20, with a second, larger wave planned for the second half of the year. And this morning, Microsoft made a move that is in some ways even more significant. For the first time in its 51-year history, Microsoft is offering voluntary retirement buyouts to roughly 7% of its U.S. workforce, approximately 8,750 employees whose combined age and years of service total at least 70. - X user StockMarket News In the week of April 20-25, 2026, a fresh wave of corporate layoffs—largely AI-driven—hit major firms, continuing 2026’s trend of efficiency-focused cuts: Meta announced plans to lay off ~8,000 employees (10% of workforce) starting May 20, while scra

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Apr26) @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Apr26) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.39, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to turn upwards, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the co

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026) Retail Sales Data The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook. Crude Oil Inventories Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand. Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207

Quick analysis of S&P500 S&P500 closed the day with 6886.24, a gain of 1.02%. Analysts have claimed that the Gulf War losses were wiped out. Let us look at some of the technicals. MACD is on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the 50- and 200-day moving average (MA) lines on the daily interval. This implies bullish in both the short and long term. The 3 exponential moving average (EMA) lines are on the up trend. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in the selling region even though there is increasing buying momentum. What is concerning is the volume. Volume is the momentum of the trade that is not supported, meaning that the current run may not last. Let us exercise caution and do our due diligence. @TigerStars

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Apr2026) JD Vance says the US delegation will return to America WITHOUT a deal with Iran, but that this outcome is MUCH worse for Iran than the US. “We've been at it for 21 HOURS. We've had substantive discussions...but the bad news is, we have NOT reached an agreement.” “That's bad news for Iran MUCH more than it is bad news for the USA.” - X user Nick Sortor US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called Wall Street leaders to an ‘urgent meeting’ on concerns that the latest AI model from Anthropic will ‘usher in an era of greater cyber risk’, according to Bloomberg report. OpenAI is pausing its Stargate project in the UK due to high electricity cost + regulatory environment - X user Nik Nearly half of the plan

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Apr2026) Existing Home Sales Existing home sales for March are projected to reach 4.05 million units. This figure serves as a reliable indicator of the overall health of the American real estate market, reflecting both buyer demand and market activity. Home Builder Confidence The home builder confidence index is expected to decrease to 37, down from 38 in the previous month. This index is an important gauge for the residential and real estate industry, providing insight into the sentiment of builders regarding current and future market conditions. Producer Price Index (PPI) One of the most closely watched macroeconomic reports in the upcoming week is the core Producer Price Index (PPI) for March. The PPI measures inflation affecting producers,

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The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

My Investing Muse (18May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies META is preparing to cut about 10% of staff on May 20, nearly 8,000 people, per YF. - X user Unusual Whales 4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not. - X user George Pu Tech layoffs in 2026 so far: Jan - 27,223 Feb - 24,631 Mar - 49,452 Apr - 18,385 May - 9,249 128,940 people in five months. March 2026 was the worst month for tech layoffs in over a year. My thoughts Recent talks between the United States and China appeared to improve short-term stability, but they did not produce a clear resolution to the key issues between both sides.

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace

My Investing Muse (11May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Klarna was forced to rehire staff after an AI implementation failure. What are the lessons that we can learn? What do we need to navigate with confidence in the AI ocean. How can we avoid these mistakes during our AI deployment? We are seeing a downward trend in job creation. We are expecting more news of layoffs, and some of them, like Amazon, will be massive. Vibe Coding There is mixed feedback about vibe coding. Some developers have admitted defeat when some point to an undesirable outcome. Are there more successes or failures in this domain? Are we jumping too fast into a new solution without a strong, proven track record? Is this a corporate FOMO? US Farmers Are we heading to a “man-made” famine? More importantly, is Am

Key Outlook for 2026: The world faces a high-impact year marked by the likely onset of a strong El Niño event and a significantly elevated risk of a mega earthquake in Japan. These factors combine to create an unprecedented environment for concurrent climate and tectonic disasters with far-reaching implications for societies and economies worldwide. Japan was hit by a 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 02May2026 as I was preparing this article Climate Conditions: Transition to El Niño is highly probable by mid-2026, with a 1-in-4 chance of reaching “Super El Niño” strength by year-end. Global land and sea temperatures are forecast to be above normal nearly everywhere. Regional Weather Impacts: Severe drought and heat: Australia, Indonesia, Central America, Caribbean, northern South America, south

My Investing Muse (04May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue droppe

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the co

Market Outlook of S&P500 (11May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.40, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcomi

My Investing Muse (27Apr26) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta is laying off 8,000 employees, 10% of its entire global workforce starting May 20, with a second, larger wave planned for the second half of the year. And this morning, Microsoft made a move that is in some ways even more significant. For the first time in its 51-year history, Microsoft is offering voluntary retirement buyouts to roughly 7% of its U.S. workforce, approximately 8,750 employees whose combined age and years of service total at least 70. - X user StockMarket News In the week of April 20-25, 2026, a fresh wave of corporate layoffs—largely AI-driven—hit major firms, continuing 2026’s trend of efficiency-focused cuts: Meta announced plans to lay off ~8,000 employees (10% of workforce) starting May 20, while scra

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026) Retail Sales Data The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook. Crude Oil Inventories Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand. Initial Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 04May2026) International Market Closures China will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country observes Labor Day celebrations. This holiday may impact trading volumes and activity in Asian markets during these days. Key U.S. Economic Indicators The S&P Global Services PMI for April is projected to be 51.3, indicating an expansionary trend in the global services sector. New home sales data for March will be released, offering valuable insight into the current health of the real estate market. Several labour market indicators are scheduled for release in the coming week. JOLTS job openings for March will be published, with the previous figure at 6.882 million. This data will serve as an important reference for the

As the US-Iran war goes into its 6th week of fighting, we have to be mentally prepared for a worsening of the situation, not unless US stick to its peaceful retreat and not execute another foolish stunt. While the world wait for US to exhibit proof of sincerity, it marches on as it is “business as usual”. Is it really so, when everyone is sucked into this black hole - willingly or otherwise ? Below was US reports released for the week ending 02 Apr 2026. This will be a “last” look at the US economy before quarterly earnings season “takeover”. 31 Mar 2026 - Jobs opening & labour turnover surveys (February). 31 Mar 2026 - US Consumer confidence (March). 01 Apr 2026 - ADP non-farm payroll (March). 01 Apr 2026 - US Retail sales (February). 02 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & contin

The start of the Iran conflict on February 28, 2026, has significantly altered the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ landscape. While historical patterns suggest that geopolitical shocks often lead to short-term volatility rather than long-term bear markets, the specific "transmission channels"—primarily oil prices and inflation—are dictating clear winners and losers across sectors. Sectors Likely to Benefit Energy: This is the most direct beneficiary. Brent crude has surged above $107 per barrel, driving a 21.7% gain in the sector since February. Investors are utilizing the "inflation playbook," as higher prices boost margins for oil producers and oilfield services. Defense & Aerospace: Heightened geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased military

The week beginning 30 Mar 2026 marks the closing of Q1 2026 after Tuesday. US market sentiments this week should remain ‘sensitive’ due to the dual pressure of: Cooling technology sector. Persistent inflationary shocks, consequent to the US-Iran conflict, as it enters its 5th week. Investors are entering the week with a "risk-off" posture as US 10-year Treasury yield’s surge to 4.428% (see above) from 2.97% (on 27 Feb 2026), a month ago. While brent oil price has risen to an elevated $112.57 from $71.32 /barrel (on 27 Feb 2026) (see below). This effectively shifts US economy’s narrative from a "soft landing" toward fears of a pronounced stagflationary environment. US market is likely to remain in a defensive "wait-and-see" mode. As of 27 Mar 2026 endday This atmosphere of uncertainty will

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Apr26) @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 30Mar2026) The upcoming period features several significant economic developments and meetings that may introduce volatility into financial markets. Notably, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, and his remarks could influence market movements. Labor Market Data Job openings are forecasted at 7.0 million, marking an improvement from the previous figure of 6.9 million. This metric is particularly important given the recent wave of retrenchments and layoffs. Initial jobless claims for March are reported at 210,000, and this statistic will serve as a reference point for the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision. Additional employment data includes the US employment report, which stands at 45,000 for March. The une

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26) Consumer sentiment Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook. Growth and demand indicators Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%. Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption. Federal Reserve focus FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%. FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions. Leadership transition: Even

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112 Relief rally: Major U.S. indexes gained 3–4% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak. Resurgent oil: U.S. crude climbed to ~$112/barrel Friday—highest since mid-2022—amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions. Golden rebound: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ recovered March losses, rising nearly 4% to trade around $4,700 on last friday. Yields reverse course: Treasury yields slipped after four weeks of gains that pushed 10-year rates to eight-month highs. March decline: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell ~5% in March for back-to-back monthly losses;

Stocks down. Bonds down. Gold down. March 2026 was the month the playbook stopped working.March delivered something rarely seen: a true indiscriminate selloff. Traditional safe havens and risk assets fell together, leaving investors with almost nowhere to shelter. The numbers were stark — $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed Q1 down 7.11%, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ off 4.63% — but the index figures only tell part of the story.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ briefly touched $4,100, then reversed hard. Silver cratered 27% in a single session on January 30th. The assets you'd normally rotate into when equities wobble... wobbled right along with them.So what actually happened?The Month