To The Moon

I. Spending + Debt Issuance + Cash Flow Risks For this earnings report, Amazon faces the risk of upward revisions to capital expenditures or operating cash flow falling short of expectations. Competition for retail market share remains intense, which could further pressure retail margins. Amazon commands a significant share of the credit market, coupled with persistent oversupply from ongoing bond issuance — its credit performance is expected to lag behind the sector. Amazon is projected to add another $25–35 billion in debt by the end of 2026. Even the bond market is pricing in risks from Amazon's debt issuance and spending — this originates from the same valuation-killing dynamic seen with META and GOOGL. The make-or-break factor on the equity side is whether AWS growth can justify these

I. Core Perspective: Apple's Key Factor Is Not Capex, but Expectation Realization Unlike MSFT / META / GOOGL, Apple is not a story of heavy AI spending and compressed free cash flow — it is a cash cow by nature. Therefore, for this earnings report, the specific numbers are not the most critical factor. The key question is: Apple has already risen 16.88% this month — have the good news already been priced into the stock? The current price sits at approximately 32x FY27 P/E, approaching valuation peaks. That is the true variable that will determine post-earnings price direction. June quarter iPhone likely beat slightly, but September quarter gross margin guidance may be on the low side, with gross margins expected around 46.8% (consensus 47.4%). Services growth faces headwinds, with the App

When a stock drops sharply, the biggest risk is not failing to act immediately. It is rushing to buy puts, sell puts or keep adding to the position before properly assessing the market, your existing exposure and the risks involved. $Micron Technology(MU)$ rallied strongly earlier before reversing course. The stock has since experienced a significant pullback, falling by close to 30% from its recent high. The selling pressure has not been limited to MU. Semiconductor and memory stocks have also come under pressure as investors reassess AI-related investment, industry competition, capital expenditure and the valuations reached after the sector’s earlier rally. However, a sharp drop in share price does not necessarily mean that the com

rotation now. money in semis, AI, memory and photonis go into software, healthcare, financials and consumer. 

$VEEV 20280121 220.0 PUT$ sharing for rewardssssss

Amid soaring oil prices and a tech stock sell-off, $HSBC Holdings PLC(HSBC)$ maintains a bullish stance: Five reasons support continued gains in US stocks HSBC's bullish view on US stocks is based on five key assessments: global economic growth expectations have been significantly revised downwards, making better-than-expected data more likely in the future; corporate earnings have exceeded pessimistic expectations for several consecutive quarters, continuously validating fundamental resilience; US stock valuations are already lower than at the initial stages of geopolitical conflicts, providing ample safety margins; US Treasury yields have room to fall after a sharp rise, potentially providing support for the stock market; market funds have not l

[Love][Smile]Hi~Tigers Amid wild overnight swings on US equities, major corporates released a flood of critical updates across AI, semiconductors, cloud and aerospace sectors. Mixed signals have widened market divergence. 1. Double Positive Catalysts for OpenAI OpenAI’s CFO revealed the company’s annualized revenue in July surpassed total Q2 revenue, marking accelerating commercial traction for generative AI. In addition, Li Weng, co-founder of Thinking Machines, rejoins OpenAI. The return of top technical talent signals OpenAI’s ambition to reinforce its leading position in frontier AI model research. 2. Microsoft Cloud Eases Capex Fears $Microsoft(MSFT)$ delivered stronger-than-expected cloud growth in its quarterly results. The resilient cloud

The July FOMC confirmed no rate hike — that's good. The U.S. stock market really can't handle any more turbulence right now. It may seem "reasonable" that only South Korea and Japan are plummeting, but in reality, it's not reasonable at all. The 100,000-contract IGV weekly call position $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ was closed before Tuesday's close. Although IGV continued to rise today, for weekly options with less than five days to expiration, the trading discipline is exactly that — open on the day, close on the same day or the next. The noteworthy point is that I initially thought this trade was betting on upside from MSFT and META earnings, and that after closing it would at least roll into a new position. But the block trad

I. Fundamentals: Revenue and EPS Expected to Beat Consensus Q2 results are expected to beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with additional upside to EPS driven by the cost-cutting effect of a 10% headcount reduction in May and a 49% month-over-month decline in job postings during Q2. AI integration + external compute sales are emerging as new growth drivers. Based on rumors that Meta may reach a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic, the market has priced in an additional $5 billion in AI compute revenue expectations by 2027. The bull case is well-rounded (stable advertising + AI monetization + cost reduction + reasonable valuation). However, like Microsoft and Google, Meta is one of the heaviest capex spenders among tech giants — with both AI infrastructure and Reality Labs burning

I. Fundamentals: AI Execution Remains the Core Debate Microsoft reports Q4 FY26 results after the close on July 29. Market focus centers on three points: Azure growth following new capacity rollouts, the pressure of capital expenditures on margins and free cash flow, and M365 Copilot adoption rates along with broader AI monetization capability. Azure year-over-year growth is the key metric to monitor, with company guidance at 39–40%. FY26 Q4 capital expenditures (including leases) are expected to reach $42 billion, up 32% quarter-over-quarter and 74% year-over-year, compressing free cash flow from $25.5 billion last quarter to $14.4 billion. M365 Copilot added 5 million paid seats in FY26 Q3, bringing the total to 20 million, with AI annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $37 billion, up

The biggest difference between this week and last: negative sentiment toward memory chips is finally spreading widely. Last week was "buy the dip with full confidence"; but after CXMT's listing Monday, plus news of mass-produced Chinese DUV, fears of surging supply crushed an already fragile uptrend. For some names, a monthly pullback has turned into a quarterly one, and panic is fully setting in. Yet Tuesday's semiconductor crash didn't drag the broad market down—which, to me, isn't a good sign. Last week someone traded 70,000 contracts of the Aug 19 29 call$VIX 20260819 29.0 CALL$  . If the market won't correct even now, what is this VIX call betting on? Surely not a rate hike at Wednesday's FOMC?

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Visibility Improves, Valuation Attractive SK Hynix is signing more amended long-term agreements with hyperscale data center customers, covering both DDR5 and NAND. Contract terms exceed five years, with approximately 60–70% of expected volume/pricing already locked in, significantly boosting future earnings visibility — this serves as micro-level confirmation of the large-capex-backed memory storage thesis. This earnings report is expected to deliver unprecedented operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won. Yet, with such strong expectations, the stock has still plunged dramatically, indicating that near-term market sentiment has completely broken down. II. Volatility Estimates and Scenarios Monday's pre-market reference price was 154.57, with implied movement o

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A week of major pullback. SPY target remains the same as last week — looking at 710–720. Speaking of which, here's something interesting: software ETF saw a massive bullish (expiration-day) call order last Friday. This week's 88 call $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ opened 100,000 contracts — that's $20 million spent on weekly options. And it actually rose on Monday. So can we chase IGV? Naturally, no. Currently, semiconductors and software are seesawing — the reason is that sentiment has temporarily shifted toward the software sector, which has richer cash flows. Notably, IGV's top holding is Microsoft. There is broad consensus that this week's earnings wil

📊 Noteworthy Points Market Main Theme: Capex Concerns Have Not Yet Been Fully Priced In The AI narrative is still present, but the market has begun to question the monetization ability of massive capex, putting pressure on valuations. The widespread decline following last week's earnings reports from several tech giants suggests that the valuation-killing logic of "full expectations + capex concerns" has not yet run its course. Earnings from similar tech stocks this week (META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN) are likely to remain under pressure, with the prevailing direction still leaning toward Sell Call. Watch Whether Post-Earnings Pullback Stocks Break Below Forecast Ranges Tesla, Google, and INTC have already dropped significantly after earnings (TSLA 380→313, GOOGL 352→320, INTC 105→92). If they fa

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ In the current range-bound market, U.S.-listed SK Hynix has a key weapon that the Hong Kong-listed 7709 $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ lacks: options! The Hong Kong ticker can only trade the underlying stock for price differences, while U.S.-listed SKHY allows you to Sell Puts during high volatility, turning range-bound movement directly into cash flow. Indeed, we've seen many large Sell Put orders over the past two days. Why is now particularly suitable for Selling Puts? SK Hynix reports earnings on 7/29, and pre-earnings IV has been pushed very high, making premiums especially rich. In addition, while the memory sector may not rally much in the short term, its long

I haven't written an article in a long time, and choosing to pick up the pen today feels rather meaningful—Big Tech's valuations got collectively marked down on this day, because the nature of their business has changed, from asset-light to asset-heavy. Some may remember the HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence) concept that Goldman Sachs championed in the first half of the year. As it turns out, HALO just means "hard to die"—it doesn't mean "won't fall." When Big Tech collectively goes HALO, the broad market falls, and when the market falls, all stocks get dragged down with it. But on Thursday, semiconductor stocks—especially memory chips—held up remarkably well, because memory is the party being paid: it absorbs the cash flow coming from the HALO names. So when other stocks get marked do

I. Fundamentals: Two Engines Determine Valuation The core focus of this earnings report is whether the two main threads — Server CPU and Foundry — can deliver a turning point. 1. Server CPU: The Core Engine for Earnings Growth Although declining PC sales pose a headwind, Intel is offsetting this with stronger CPU pricing power and AI demand. More critically, Agentic AI is expected to significantly boost server CPU demand, with the GPU/CPU ratio projected to drop from 2× to 1.1–1.4×. Leveraging the strong stickiness of x86 in the enterprise sector, Intel is well-positioned to become a key beneficiary of enterprise-grade Agentic AI. Server CPU revenue is projected to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. 2. Foundry Business: A Turning Point Has Emerged Front-end manu

I. Fundamentals: Strong Deliveries Come at the Cost of Profit and Cash Flow Tesla's overall Q2 deliveries beat expectations, and the full-year delivery guidance was raised. However, gross margins and EPS are expected to come under pressure and trend lower, while capex has breached $25 billion and free cash flow has turned negative. The market's real focus is no longer on car sales, but rather on the execution of Robotaxi rollouts and the production ramp of Optimus. Whether Tesla can build a moat in physical AI is the true make-or-break factor for this valuation. Key Data: Deliveries (raised): 2026 raised from 1.57M → 1.67M units; 2027 from 1.82M → 1.86M units. Capex: 2026 expected at $26.8B, with FCF loss of approximately $11.4B, in line with company guidance. Robotaxi: Launched in Miami o

I. Fundamentals: Shine Fading Slightly, but the Giant Is Still Doubling Down Google's AI product Gemini has seen its reputation and rankings slip somewhat this year, but that hasn't dampened the market's long-term optimism toward the company: Buffett has placed a heavy bet on it and publicly voiced his support in a CNBC interview. Google is set to report earnings after Wednesday's close (7/22), and the results will carry significant weight for the broader market. Investors will be laser-focused on two main threads: capital expenditure and cloud revenue. However, one thing to keep in mind: expectations may already be fully priced in. Without a surprise, the post-earnings stock reaction is likely to be loud but shallow – though spillover effects could still ripple through the semiconductor s

Part 1: Market Recap July 16: S&P 500 closed at 7,533.77, up only +0.46% month-to-date in July. But during the same period, Micron (MU) plunged 26% in July, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) crashed 17.21%. The root of this semiconductor crash lies in the Korean stock market — as of today, the KOSPI index has plunged 19.53% in July. Part 2: The Three Early Warning Signs of the Crash 1️⃣ Option Warning Signs (Smart Money Was Already Moving) June 18 | DRAM saw a large bearish trade: buying the 8/21 expiry 60 Put$DRAM 20260821 60.0 PUT$  , with 50,000 contracts traded, notional value $21.75 million, still open. Same day | MU also saw a large bearish trade: buying the 6/18 expiry 990 Put

I. Spending + Debt Issuance + Cash Flow Risks For this earnings report, Amazon faces the risk of upward revisions to capital expenditures or operating cash flow falling short of expectations. Competition for retail market share remains intense, which could further pressure retail margins. Amazon commands a significant share of the credit market, coupled with persistent oversupply from ongoing bond issuance — its credit performance is expected to lag behind the sector. Amazon is projected to add another $25–35 billion in debt by the end of 2026. Even the bond market is pricing in risks from Amazon's debt issuance and spending — this originates from the same valuation-killing dynamic seen with META and GOOGL. The make-or-break factor on the equity side is whether AWS growth can justify these

I. Core Perspective: Apple's Key Factor Is Not Capex, but Expectation Realization Unlike MSFT / META / GOOGL, Apple is not a story of heavy AI spending and compressed free cash flow — it is a cash cow by nature. Therefore, for this earnings report, the specific numbers are not the most critical factor. The key question is: Apple has already risen 16.88% this month — have the good news already been priced into the stock? The current price sits at approximately 32x FY27 P/E, approaching valuation peaks. That is the true variable that will determine post-earnings price direction. June quarter iPhone likely beat slightly, but September quarter gross margin guidance may be on the low side, with gross margins expected around 46.8% (consensus 47.4%). Services growth faces headwinds, with the App

When a stock drops sharply, the biggest risk is not failing to act immediately. It is rushing to buy puts, sell puts or keep adding to the position before properly assessing the market, your existing exposure and the risks involved. $Micron Technology(MU)$ rallied strongly earlier before reversing course. The stock has since experienced a significant pullback, falling by close to 30% from its recent high. The selling pressure has not been limited to MU. Semiconductor and memory stocks have also come under pressure as investors reassess AI-related investment, industry competition, capital expenditure and the valuations reached after the sector’s earlier rally. However, a sharp drop in share price does not necessarily mean that the com

Amid soaring oil prices and a tech stock sell-off, $HSBC Holdings PLC(HSBC)$ maintains a bullish stance: Five reasons support continued gains in US stocks HSBC's bullish view on US stocks is based on five key assessments: global economic growth expectations have been significantly revised downwards, making better-than-expected data more likely in the future; corporate earnings have exceeded pessimistic expectations for several consecutive quarters, continuously validating fundamental resilience; US stock valuations are already lower than at the initial stages of geopolitical conflicts, providing ample safety margins; US Treasury yields have room to fall after a sharp rise, potentially providing support for the stock market; market funds have not l

[Love][Smile]Hi~Tigers Amid wild overnight swings on US equities, major corporates released a flood of critical updates across AI, semiconductors, cloud and aerospace sectors. Mixed signals have widened market divergence. 1. Double Positive Catalysts for OpenAI OpenAI’s CFO revealed the company’s annualized revenue in July surpassed total Q2 revenue, marking accelerating commercial traction for generative AI. In addition, Li Weng, co-founder of Thinking Machines, rejoins OpenAI. The return of top technical talent signals OpenAI’s ambition to reinforce its leading position in frontier AI model research. 2. Microsoft Cloud Eases Capex Fears $Microsoft(MSFT)$ delivered stronger-than-expected cloud growth in its quarterly results. The resilient cloud

I. Fundamentals: Revenue and EPS Expected to Beat Consensus Q2 results are expected to beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with additional upside to EPS driven by the cost-cutting effect of a 10% headcount reduction in May and a 49% month-over-month decline in job postings during Q2. AI integration + external compute sales are emerging as new growth drivers. Based on rumors that Meta may reach a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic, the market has priced in an additional $5 billion in AI compute revenue expectations by 2027. The bull case is well-rounded (stable advertising + AI monetization + cost reduction + reasonable valuation). However, like Microsoft and Google, Meta is one of the heaviest capex spenders among tech giants — with both AI infrastructure and Reality Labs burning

The July FOMC confirmed no rate hike — that's good. The U.S. stock market really can't handle any more turbulence right now. It may seem "reasonable" that only South Korea and Japan are plummeting, but in reality, it's not reasonable at all. The 100,000-contract IGV weekly call position $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ was closed before Tuesday's close. Although IGV continued to rise today, for weekly options with less than five days to expiration, the trading discipline is exactly that — open on the day, close on the same day or the next. The noteworthy point is that I initially thought this trade was betting on upside from MSFT and META earnings, and that after closing it would at least roll into a new position. But the block trad

I. Fundamentals: AI Execution Remains the Core Debate Microsoft reports Q4 FY26 results after the close on July 29. Market focus centers on three points: Azure growth following new capacity rollouts, the pressure of capital expenditures on margins and free cash flow, and M365 Copilot adoption rates along with broader AI monetization capability. Azure year-over-year growth is the key metric to monitor, with company guidance at 39–40%. FY26 Q4 capital expenditures (including leases) are expected to reach $42 billion, up 32% quarter-over-quarter and 74% year-over-year, compressing free cash flow from $25.5 billion last quarter to $14.4 billion. M365 Copilot added 5 million paid seats in FY26 Q3, bringing the total to 20 million, with AI annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $37 billion, up

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Visibility Improves, Valuation Attractive SK Hynix is signing more amended long-term agreements with hyperscale data center customers, covering both DDR5 and NAND. Contract terms exceed five years, with approximately 60–70% of expected volume/pricing already locked in, significantly boosting future earnings visibility — this serves as micro-level confirmation of the large-capex-backed memory storage thesis. This earnings report is expected to deliver unprecedented operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won. Yet, with such strong expectations, the stock has still plunged dramatically, indicating that near-term market sentiment has completely broken down. II. Volatility Estimates and Scenarios Monday's pre-market reference price was 154.57, with implied movement o

The biggest difference between this week and last: negative sentiment toward memory chips is finally spreading widely. Last week was "buy the dip with full confidence"; but after CXMT's listing Monday, plus news of mass-produced Chinese DUV, fears of surging supply crushed an already fragile uptrend. For some names, a monthly pullback has turned into a quarterly one, and panic is fully setting in. Yet Tuesday's semiconductor crash didn't drag the broad market down—which, to me, isn't a good sign. Last week someone traded 70,000 contracts of the Aug 19 29 call$VIX 20260819 29.0 CALL$  . If the market won't correct even now, what is this VIX call betting on? Surely not a rate hike at Wednesday's FOMC?

rotation now. money in semis, AI, memory and photonis go into software, healthcare, financials and consumer. 

$VEEV 20280121 220.0 PUT$ sharing for rewardssssss

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A week of major pullback. SPY target remains the same as last week — looking at 710–720. Speaking of which, here's something interesting: software ETF saw a massive bullish (expiration-day) call order last Friday. This week's 88 call $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ opened 100,000 contracts — that's $20 million spent on weekly options. And it actually rose on Monday. So can we chase IGV? Naturally, no. Currently, semiconductors and software are seesawing — the reason is that sentiment has temporarily shifted toward the software sector, which has richer cash flows. Notably, IGV's top holding is Microsoft. There is broad consensus that this week's earnings wil

📊 Noteworthy Points Market Main Theme: Capex Concerns Have Not Yet Been Fully Priced In The AI narrative is still present, but the market has begun to question the monetization ability of massive capex, putting pressure on valuations. The widespread decline following last week's earnings reports from several tech giants suggests that the valuation-killing logic of "full expectations + capex concerns" has not yet run its course. Earnings from similar tech stocks this week (META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN) are likely to remain under pressure, with the prevailing direction still leaning toward Sell Call. Watch Whether Post-Earnings Pullback Stocks Break Below Forecast Ranges Tesla, Google, and INTC have already dropped significantly after earnings (TSLA 380→313, GOOGL 352→320, INTC 105→92). If they fa

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ In the current range-bound market, U.S.-listed SK Hynix has a key weapon that the Hong Kong-listed 7709 $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ lacks: options! The Hong Kong ticker can only trade the underlying stock for price differences, while U.S.-listed SKHY allows you to Sell Puts during high volatility, turning range-bound movement directly into cash flow. Indeed, we've seen many large Sell Put orders over the past two days. Why is now particularly suitable for Selling Puts? SK Hynix reports earnings on 7/29, and pre-earnings IV has been pushed very high, making premiums especially rich. In addition, while the memory sector may not rally much in the short term, its long

I haven't written an article in a long time, and choosing to pick up the pen today feels rather meaningful—Big Tech's valuations got collectively marked down on this day, because the nature of their business has changed, from asset-light to asset-heavy. Some may remember the HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence) concept that Goldman Sachs championed in the first half of the year. As it turns out, HALO just means "hard to die"—it doesn't mean "won't fall." When Big Tech collectively goes HALO, the broad market falls, and when the market falls, all stocks get dragged down with it. But on Thursday, semiconductor stocks—especially memory chips—held up remarkably well, because memory is the party being paid: it absorbs the cash flow coming from the HALO names. So when other stocks get marked do

Part 1: Market Recap July 16: S&P 500 closed at 7,533.77, up only +0.46% month-to-date in July. But during the same period, Micron (MU) plunged 26% in July, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) crashed 17.21%. The root of this semiconductor crash lies in the Korean stock market — as of today, the KOSPI index has plunged 19.53% in July. Part 2: The Three Early Warning Signs of the Crash 1️⃣ Option Warning Signs (Smart Money Was Already Moving) June 18 | DRAM saw a large bearish trade: buying the 8/21 expiry 60 Put$DRAM 20260821 60.0 PUT$  , with 50,000 contracts traded, notional value $21.75 million, still open. Same day | MU also saw a large bearish trade: buying the 6/18 expiry 990 Put

I. Fundamentals: Two Engines Determine Valuation The core focus of this earnings report is whether the two main threads — Server CPU and Foundry — can deliver a turning point. 1. Server CPU: The Core Engine for Earnings Growth Although declining PC sales pose a headwind, Intel is offsetting this with stronger CPU pricing power and AI demand. More critically, Agentic AI is expected to significantly boost server CPU demand, with the GPU/CPU ratio projected to drop from 2× to 1.1–1.4×. Leveraging the strong stickiness of x86 in the enterprise sector, Intel is well-positioned to become a key beneficiary of enterprise-grade Agentic AI. Server CPU revenue is projected to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. 2. Foundry Business: A Turning Point Has Emerged Front-end manu

I. Fundamentals: Strong Deliveries Come at the Cost of Profit and Cash Flow Tesla's overall Q2 deliveries beat expectations, and the full-year delivery guidance was raised. However, gross margins and EPS are expected to come under pressure and trend lower, while capex has breached $25 billion and free cash flow has turned negative. The market's real focus is no longer on car sales, but rather on the execution of Robotaxi rollouts and the production ramp of Optimus. Whether Tesla can build a moat in physical AI is the true make-or-break factor for this valuation. Key Data: Deliveries (raised): 2026 raised from 1.57M → 1.67M units; 2027 from 1.82M → 1.86M units. Capex: 2026 expected at $26.8B, with FCF loss of approximately $11.4B, in line with company guidance. Robotaxi: Launched in Miami o

I. Fundamentals: Shine Fading Slightly, but the Giant Is Still Doubling Down Google's AI product Gemini has seen its reputation and rankings slip somewhat this year, but that hasn't dampened the market's long-term optimism toward the company: Buffett has placed a heavy bet on it and publicly voiced his support in a CNBC interview. Google is set to report earnings after Wednesday's close (7/22), and the results will carry significant weight for the broader market. Investors will be laser-focused on two main threads: capital expenditure and cloud revenue. However, one thing to keep in mind: expectations may already be fully priced in. Without a surprise, the post-earnings stock reaction is likely to be loud but shallow – though spillover effects could still ripple through the semiconductor s