To The Moon

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

Deep retracements lead to extended waves. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just retraced 78.6% of the decline. Bulls see strength. I see a B-Wave loading the SPRING. The deeper B goes — the longer C tends to run. Primary targets: 110% → primary 127.2% → high probability 161.8% → extension in play The channel is drawn. The count is set. A 161.8% C-Wave would MIRROR the 2025 extension. History doesn’t repeat. It extends. And every time $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom — It gets REJECTED. 2011. 2014. 2018. 2022. 2025. Five touches. Five rejections. Zero exceptions. You know what follows every single one? Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM. 2026 ju

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 April 2026 Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has rebounded to a key overhead resistance zone. Semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ meanwhile are already out to new all-time highs. Tech stocks have seen a reset comparable to that of April 2025. The tech sector is driving overall profit margins to record highs. Tech stock valuations are still elevated (raising some questions). Overall, it’s been a textbook rally from oversold conditions. The next steps will be key as overhead resistance looms (with risk shadows lingering in the background vs tech strength stirring). 1. Technical Check bouncing from oversold condit

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just ripped higher over the past two weeks. That move was fueled by optimism around a US and Iran ceasefire and the possibility of broader de-escalation. Once again, the market reminded us how fast it can recover when sentiment shifts. But I'm not trusting this move blindly. There are a few technical concerns that need to be respected before anyone gets comfortable chasing this bounce. The Monthly BX Is Still Dark Red Even after this rally, the Monthly BX has not flipped. It's still dark red. That matters more than most people realize. When macro buying pressure isn't there, rallies can turn into traps. In real bull cycles, dips lead to breakouts. In weaker conditions, bounces lead to rejection. That's the structural differ

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Shorted $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ , sold covered put, collecting premium. Ceasefire news hits, SQQQ tanks (TQQQ rockets), hitting strike 😎. - *Assignment = win*: Happy to be assigned, closing profitable short - *Premium pocketed*: Extra cash for the win - *Play complete*: SQQQ short + put sale = 💵

My take: the trend is still bullish, but more fragile than it looks. Earnings don't need to be perfect-but they do need to justify current valuations. Otherwise, we could see a short-term correction before any further upside.

S&P 500 HITS ANOTHER RECORD AS EARNINGS LOOM: ARE WE READY FOR 6900 OR A DANGEROUS DIVERGENCE? The S&P 500 ETF just notched its second straight record close, grinding up a modest 0.58% to $679.91. Geopolitical fears are temporarily taking a back seat, providing a deceptively calm backdrop that is giving the bulls enough breathing room to bid the market higher. But as we stare down the barrel of next week's highly anticipated earnings season kickoff, the surface-level green is hiding some serious internal turbulence. Here is why this record high is more fragile than it looks, what the smart money is doing under the hood, and how you should position for the push toward the S&P 500 6900 level.  1. THE TALE OF TWO TECH MARKETS    Retail traders look at the index maki

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The S&P 500 ETF climbed a steady 0.58% to $679.91 today, notching its second consecutive all-time high as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided a supportive tailwind and kept risk appetite alive ahead of next week's earnings season kickoff. 😤 Storage plays, AI cloud infrastructure, and semiconductor names continue to power the index's breakout momentum, but internal divergence is widening fast — strong inflows into AMZN, SNDK, and CRWD highlight selective buying in high-conviction AI themes, while MSFT and ORCL lagged noticeably on capex and valuation concerns. This setup raises the big question: Can the first full week of earnings become the next upside catalyst that pushes the S&P through the psycho

You know we are going to drop at resistance.

Will see the drop soon 

Volatility is good for opportunities, especially when sustained by short and mid term positive base trend. This gives you sustained moderate growth to long term assets and chances for quick take profit strategies on the more volatile tickets. One to follow is APLD, some interesting +/- 10% for a few days. Sandisk superstar is a golden ticket for whose who entered early - good on them. Interesting times.

It seems that things are coming alive for much these days!

We just had 7 straight green days. $VIX broke below 20 for the first time since the Iran escalation. Friday pre-market is green again. On the surface, things look pretty good. But here's the thing – Wall Street is not agreeing on what comes next. Citadel says we're in an "asymmetric upside" setup. They think net positioning is light enough that any good news will hit harder than usual. Goldman is warning that everyone expecting 11% earnings growth in Q2 is being too optimistic – they see margins getting crushed and growth slowing to 7% in the second half of the year. And Morningstar says growth stocks are 21% below fair value, which is rare, but also says Q2 rallies stay capped unless Iran publicly signals they want to negotiate. So who's right? I put together a full breakdown of the Q2 ou

Breaking: The CBOE Volatility Index $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closed below 20 on Thursday, signaling a notable compression in market volatility expectations. As of this writing, major U.S. equity indices have extended their winning streak to seven consecutive sessions, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ futures pointing higher again in pre-market trading Friday. According to $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ late-March data, years with gains exceeding 20% have outnumbered down years since 1980. Digging deeper: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ averages a 14% intra-year drawdown annually.

Earnings week is likely the next directional catalyst, but the outcome hinges on guidance, not just beats. Base case (most probable): The market is already pricing strong AI + infra demand. If companies like Amazon and storage names confirm capex expansion + sustained AI workloads, you get a push toward 6900. However, upside may be grindy, not explosive, because positioning is no longer light. Bull case: If hyperscalers (esp. Amazon) signal accelerating AI spend and no optimisation slowdown, while semis reinforce the memory upcycle narrative, the S&P can break and hold above 6900 with breadth catching up. Bear case (key risk): Any hint of: AI spend normalisation Margin pressure from infra buildout Weak forward guidance …will trigger rotation and profit-taking, especially with divergenc

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$'s push into record territory has set a high bar for the coming weeks. As we transition into mid-April 2026, the market is navigating a delicate balance between "earnings euphoria" and "macro reality." Here is an analysis of the catalysts that could determine if the bullish momentum sustains through next week. Earnings as a Catalyst: The Quality over Quantity Phase While the broad index has performed well, the earnings season is expected to be a major differentiator. Double-Digit Expectations: The S&P 500 is projected to report a year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2% for Q1 2026. If realized, this would be the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, providing a fundamental "floor" for the current rally. Finan

Earnings Season as an Upside Catalyst ​The first week of earnings is highly likely to serve as the next primary catalyst for the rally. Consensus estimates project a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth for Q1 2026, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion. Given that actual results typically outperform initial estimates by 300 to 500 basis points, the market is positioned for a "beat and raise" cycle. While "internal divergence" persists, with AI-heavy names like AMZN and SNDK leading, the broader index will benefit from a robust outlook in the Financials and Technology sectors, which carry heavy index weighting and report early in the cycle.   ​Breaking Through the 6900 Level ​The S&P 500 is fundamentally and technically primed to break through the 69

Short answer: reasonable to start scaling in, but not an all-in entry. --- What is supportive now Risk premium reset (ceasefire) → tail risk removed 6,700 holding as support → constructive technical base Earnings catalyst → can justify current valuations if beats hold --- What is risky Rally is headline-driven, not purely fundamentals Two-week window = binary risk (deal vs breakdown) Tech already extended → prone to earnings volatility / IV crush --- How to approach entry (practical) Best approach: staggered entry Add 30–40% now near 6,700–6,780 Add more if: Earnings confirm strength, or Pullback to ~6,600–6,650 --- Key signals to watch Forward guidance (more important than beats) Semis / AI capex commentary Whether dips are bought aggressively (institutional support) --- Simple framework

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just ripped higher over the past two weeks. That move was fueled by optimism around a US and Iran ceasefire and the possibility of broader de-escalation. Once again, the market reminded us how fast it can recover when sentiment shifts. But I'm not trusting this move blindly. There are a few technical concerns that need to be respected before anyone gets comfortable chasing this bounce. The Monthly BX Is Still Dark Red Even after this rally, the Monthly BX has not flipped. It's still dark red. That matters more than most people realize. When macro buying pressure isn't there, rallies can turn into traps. In real bull cycles, dips lead to breakouts. In weaker conditions, bounces lead to rejection. That's the structural differ

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The S&P 500 ETF climbed a steady 0.58% to $679.91 today, notching its second consecutive all-time high as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided a supportive tailwind and kept risk appetite alive ahead of next week's earnings season kickoff. 😤 Storage plays, AI cloud infrastructure, and semiconductor names continue to power the index's breakout momentum, but internal divergence is widening fast — strong inflows into AMZN, SNDK, and CRWD highlight selective buying in high-conviction AI themes, while MSFT and ORCL lagged noticeably on capex and valuation concerns. This setup raises the big question: Can the first full week of earnings become the next upside catalyst that pushes the S&P through the psycho

Deep retracements lead to extended waves. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just retraced 78.6% of the decline. Bulls see strength. I see a B-Wave loading the SPRING. The deeper B goes — the longer C tends to run. Primary targets: 110% → primary 127.2% → high probability 161.8% → extension in play The channel is drawn. The count is set. A 161.8% C-Wave would MIRROR the 2025 extension. History doesn’t repeat. It extends. And every time $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom — It gets REJECTED. 2011. 2014. 2018. 2022. 2025. Five touches. Five rejections. Zero exceptions. You know what follows every single one? Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM. 2026 ju

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 April 2026 Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has rebounded to a key overhead resistance zone. Semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ meanwhile are already out to new all-time highs. Tech stocks have seen a reset comparable to that of April 2025. The tech sector is driving overall profit margins to record highs. Tech stock valuations are still elevated (raising some questions). Overall, it’s been a textbook rally from oversold conditions. The next steps will be key as overhead resistance looms (with risk shadows lingering in the background vs tech strength stirring). 1. Technical Check bouncing from oversold condit

S&P 500 HITS ANOTHER RECORD AS EARNINGS LOOM: ARE WE READY FOR 6900 OR A DANGEROUS DIVERGENCE? The S&P 500 ETF just notched its second straight record close, grinding up a modest 0.58% to $679.91. Geopolitical fears are temporarily taking a back seat, providing a deceptively calm backdrop that is giving the bulls enough breathing room to bid the market higher. But as we stare down the barrel of next week's highly anticipated earnings season kickoff, the surface-level green is hiding some serious internal turbulence. Here is why this record high is more fragile than it looks, what the smart money is doing under the hood, and how you should position for the push toward the S&P 500 6900 level.  1. THE TALE OF TWO TECH MARKETS    Retail traders look at the index maki

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-

Breaking: The CBOE Volatility Index $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closed below 20 on Thursday, signaling a notable compression in market volatility expectations. As of this writing, major U.S. equity indices have extended their winning streak to seven consecutive sessions, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ futures pointing higher again in pre-market trading Friday. According to $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ late-March data, years with gains exceeding 20% have outnumbered down years since 1980. Digging deeper: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ averages a 14% intra-year drawdown annually.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$'s push into record territory has set a high bar for the coming weeks. As we transition into mid-April 2026, the market is navigating a delicate balance between "earnings euphoria" and "macro reality." Here is an analysis of the catalysts that could determine if the bullish momentum sustains through next week. Earnings as a Catalyst: The Quality over Quantity Phase While the broad index has performed well, the earnings season is expected to be a major differentiator. Double-Digit Expectations: The S&P 500 is projected to report a year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2% for Q1 2026. If realized, this would be the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, providing a fundamental "floor" for the current rally. Finan

We just had 7 straight green days. $VIX broke below 20 for the first time since the Iran escalation. Friday pre-market is green again. On the surface, things look pretty good. But here's the thing – Wall Street is not agreeing on what comes next. Citadel says we're in an "asymmetric upside" setup. They think net positioning is light enough that any good news will hit harder than usual. Goldman is warning that everyone expecting 11% earnings growth in Q2 is being too optimistic – they see margins getting crushed and growth slowing to 7% in the second half of the year. And Morningstar says growth stocks are 21% below fair value, which is rare, but also says Q2 rallies stay capped unless Iran publicly signals they want to negotiate. So who's right? I put together a full breakdown of the Q2 ou

Shorted $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ , sold covered put, collecting premium. Ceasefire news hits, SQQQ tanks (TQQQ rockets), hitting strike 😎. - *Assignment = win*: Happy to be assigned, closing profitable short - *Premium pocketed*: Extra cash for the win - *Play complete*: SQQQ short + put sale = 💵

Bbgghbbnnnnnbvc g hhvghhjjmmmksk. Dhdnd ss udh d 

The announcement of a two-week ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered one of the most violent "risk-on" shifts in recent market history. After the latest TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)—a term traders have coined for the President's tendency to pull back from peak escalation when market pain becomes extreme—investors are frantically unwinding hedges and short positions. As we look toward the end of this week, the reaction is expected to transition from "shock and awe" euphoria to a more calculated assessment of the ceasefire's durability. Equities: The "Squeezy" Macro Tape The initial jump was driven by a massive short squeeze, with the S&P 500 erasing a month’s worth of war losses in a single session. For the rest of the week: Momentum vs. Resistance: Analy

Earnings Season as an Upside Catalyst ​The first week of earnings is highly likely to serve as the next primary catalyst for the rally. Consensus estimates project a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth for Q1 2026, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion. Given that actual results typically outperform initial estimates by 300 to 500 basis points, the market is positioned for a "beat and raise" cycle. While "internal divergence" persists, with AI-heavy names like AMZN and SNDK leading, the broader index will benefit from a robust outlook in the Financials and Technology sectors, which carry heavy index weighting and report early in the cycle.   ​Breaking Through the 6900 Level ​The S&P 500 is fundamentally and technically primed to break through the 69

My take: the trend is still bullish, but more fragile than it looks. Earnings don't need to be perfect-but they do need to justify current valuations. Otherwise, we could see a short-term correction before any further upside.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ S&P 500 may have closed above its 200-day MA, but one hurdle remains: The 20-week moving average with the $SPY currently on track for a 6th consecutive close below it 🚨📉 S&P 500 $SPY posts first close above the 200-day moving average in 14 trading days 📈🥳🫂 More than 82% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 5-day moving average, the strongest short-term market breadth since November 📈🥳🫂 Investors have been rotating to cash at one of the fastest paces in history 🚨🚨 Stock Market says goodbye to Extreme Fear for the first time in over a month 🥳📈🫂

Earnings week is likely the next directional catalyst, but the outcome hinges on guidance, not just beats. Base case (most probable): The market is already pricing strong AI + infra demand. If companies like Amazon and storage names confirm capex expansion + sustained AI workloads, you get a push toward 6900. However, upside may be grindy, not explosive, because positioning is no longer light. Bull case: If hyperscalers (esp. Amazon) signal accelerating AI spend and no optimisation slowdown, while semis reinforce the memory upcycle narrative, the S&P can break and hold above 6900 with breadth catching up. Bear case (key risk): Any hint of: AI spend normalisation Margin pressure from infra buildout Weak forward guidance …will trigger rotation and profit-taking, especially with divergenc

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $Dow Jones(.DJI)$  🚀📊⚖️ Post-Correction Playbook: Why $SPX Stabilises, $DJI Grinds, and $IXIC Leads the Rebound 📈🧠🔥 $SPX is settling into a statistical equilibrium zone following a 10% correction. After a reset of this magnitude: → Extremes fade → Return dispersion tightens → Forward expectations normalise There’s no immediate short-term edge, but this is where the market quietly rebuilds its base. Volatility compresses. Positioning rebalances. Probabilities begin to improve. Patience tends to outperform aggression in this phase. 🏛️ $DJI | The Consistency Trade $DJI continues to behave like a slow-burn rec

Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds (managing close to $100 billion), has historically been accessible only to institutional and ultra-high-net-worth investors. Its founder, Ray Dalio, is widely respected, and his book Principles is often regarded as essential reading among investors. In March 2025, Bridgewater partnered with State Street to launch the $SPDR BRIDGEWATER ALL WEATHER ETF(ALLW)$  — a retail-accessible version of its well-known All Weather strategy. ALLW currently manages approximately $1.2 billion in assets, with an expense ratio of 0.85%. Since its listing on March 6, 2025, the ETF has delivered a total return of 21.86% (including dividends). Strategy and Portfolio ALLW adopts Bridgewater’s

Volatility is good for opportunities, especially when sustained by short and mid term positive base trend. This gives you sustained moderate growth to long term assets and chances for quick take profit strategies on the more volatile tickets. One to follow is APLD, some interesting +/- 10% for a few days. Sandisk superstar is a golden ticket for whose who entered early - good on them. Interesting times.