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阿德里亚诺89
2021-08-22

Hao

A "flash economic recession" is likely to come, what does this mean for US stocks

华尔街顶尖投行——美国银行(Bank of America)策略师表示，今年晚些时候，有几个指标显示美国将出现“快闪式经济衰退”(flash recession)。最近，由于新冠疫情德尔塔变种株抑制

A "flash economic recession" is likely to come, what does this mean for US stocks

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阿德里亚诺89
·2021-08-22
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Bank of America strategists warned in a report released on Friday (August 20) that the recent outlook for the U.S. economy is bleak and a \"flash recession\" may occur this year.</p><p>The so-called \"flash economic recession\" refers to a short and sudden decline in economic output. A standard economic recession refers to at least two consecutive quarters of decline in economic activity.</p><p>Bank of America pointed to three reasons why investors appear to be concerned about economic growth.</p><p>First, the U.S. bond yield curve (that is, the difference between long-term and short-term bond yields) has declined. Since the end of the first quarter, the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury Bond has fallen from 1.59 percentage points to 1.02 percentage points. This means that investors believe that even if inflation remains high, economic demand will continue to weaken in the future.</p><p>Second, commodity prices that respond to economic demand have been falling, with crude oil and copper falling 16% and 13% respectively from their 2021 highs.</p><p>Third, small-cap stocks, whose earnings are more sensitive to changes in economic demand, have been hit. The Russell 2000 is down nearly 8% from its all-time high set in mid-March.</p><p>Bank of America strategists believe that if economic demand really weakens from now on, manufacturing may be particularly affected.</p><p>The ISM index, which measures manufacturing activity, showed that manufacturing activity grew nearly 50% year-over-year earlier this year, the highest pace since 2011. Since then, that growth has slowed to around 10% and could turn negative by October, wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. This decline may coincide with a decline or negative growth in overall economic output.</p><p>Any decline in manufacturing activity would be negative for U.S. stocks, according to Bank of America data.</p><p>Year-over-year changes in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index are closely related to year-over-year changes in the S&P 500. Bank of America strategists believe the S&P 500 will fall sharply if manufacturing activity contracts. Hartnett wrote that Bank of America's view is that stocks will see negative returns in the second half of the year.</p><p>Investors are mainly worried about the threat of stagflation, that is, weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation.</p><p>This year, as states and countries reopened, trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus boosted demand and inflation increased. Now, supply chain constraints are worsening as the Delta variant forces ports and factory closures around the world, leading to supply shortages that ultimately raise costs.</p><p>\"Inflation is now triggering stagflation,\" notes Hartnett.Investors need to keep watching the trajectory of the Delta variant.</p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A \"flash economic recession\" is likely to come, what does this mean for US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA \"flash economic recession\" is likely to come, what does this mean for US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Top investment banks on Wall Street-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Several indicators point to a \"flash recession\" in the U.S. later this year, according to strategists at Bank of America.</p><p>Recently, U.S. economic growth data has been lower than expected as the COVID-19 pandemic Delta variant has dampened global supply chains and demand. Bank of America strategists warned in a report released on Friday (August 20) that the recent outlook for the U.S. economy is bleak and a \"flash recession\" may occur this year.</p><p>The so-called \"flash economic recession\" refers to a short and sudden decline in economic output. A standard economic recession refers to at least two consecutive quarters of decline in economic activity.</p><p>Bank of America pointed to three reasons why investors appear to be concerned about economic growth.</p><p>First, the U.S. bond yield curve (that is, the difference between long-term and short-term bond yields) has declined. Since the end of the first quarter, the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury Bond has fallen from 1.59 percentage points to 1.02 percentage points. This means that investors believe that even if inflation remains high, economic demand will continue to weaken in the future.</p><p>Second, commodity prices that respond to economic demand have been falling, with crude oil and copper falling 16% and 13% respectively from their 2021 highs.</p><p>Third, small-cap stocks, whose earnings are more sensitive to changes in economic demand, have been hit. The Russell 2000 is down nearly 8% from its all-time high set in mid-March.</p><p>Bank of America strategists believe that if economic demand really weakens from now on, manufacturing may be particularly affected.</p><p>The ISM index, which measures manufacturing activity, showed that manufacturing activity grew nearly 50% year-over-year earlier this year, the highest pace since 2011. Since then, that growth has slowed to around 10% and could turn negative by October, wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. This decline may coincide with a decline or negative growth in overall economic output.</p><p>Any decline in manufacturing activity would be negative for U.S. stocks, according to Bank of America data.</p><p>Year-over-year changes in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index are closely related to year-over-year changes in the S&P 500. Bank of America strategists believe the S&P 500 will fall sharply if manufacturing activity contracts. Hartnett wrote that Bank of America's view is that stocks will see negative returns in the second half of the year.</p><p>Investors are mainly worried about the threat of stagflation, that is, weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation.</p><p>This year, as states and countries reopened, trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus boosted demand and inflation increased. Now, supply chain constraints are worsening as the Delta variant forces ports and factory closures around the world, leading to supply shortages that ultimately raise costs.</p><p>\"Inflation is now triggering stagflation,\" notes Hartnett.Investors need to keep watching the trajectory of the Delta variant.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/usstock/2108/5285590.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191be57ba80120d79dfd381a21a20519","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/usstock/2108/5285590.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161741771","content_text":"华尔街顶尖投行——美国银行(Bank of America)策略师表示，今年晚些时候，有几个指标显示美国将出现“快闪式经济衰退”(flash recession)。\n最近，由于新冠疫情德尔塔变种株抑制了全球供应链和需求，美国经济增长数据一直低于预期。美国银行策略师在周五(8月20日)发布的一份报告中警告称，近期美国经济前景黯淡，今年可能会出现“快闪式经济衰退”。\n所谓“快闪式经济衰退”，是指经济产出出现短暂、突然的下降。而标准的经济衰退，是指经济活动连续至少两个季度下降。\n美国银行指出了投资者似乎对经济增长感到担忧的三个原因。\n首先，美债收益率曲线(即长期和短期债券收益率之差)已经下降。自第一季度结束以来，10年期和2年期美国国债的收益率差已从1.59个百分点降至1.02个百分点。这意味着投资者认为，即使通胀居高不下，未来的经济需求仍将不断减弱。\n其次，对经济需求做出反应的大宗商品价格一直在下跌，原油和铜的价格从2021年的高点分别下跌了16%和13%。\n第三，收益对经济需求变化更敏感的小盘股受到了冲击。罗素2000指数较3月中旬创下的历史高点下跌了近8%。\n美银策略师们认为，如果经济需求真的从现在开始减弱，制造业可能会受到特别的影响。\n衡量制造业活动的ISM指数显示，制造业活动今年早些时候同比增长近50%，为2011年以来的最高增速。美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett写道，自那以来，这一增速已放缓至10%左右，到10月份可能转为负增长。这种下降可能与整体经济产出的下降或负增长相一致。\n美国银行的数据显示，制造业活动的任何下降都将对美国股市不利。\nISM采购经理人指数的同比变动与标普500指数的同比变动密切相关。美银策略师们认为，如果制造业活动收缩，标普500指数将大幅下跌。Hartnett写道，美银的观点是，今年下半年股市将出现负回报。\n投资者主要担心的是滞胀的威胁，即经济增长疲软伴高通胀。\n今年，随着各州各国重新开放，数万亿美元的财政刺激提振了需求，通货膨胀加剧。现在，随着德尔塔变种迫使全球港口和工厂关闭，导致供应短缺，最终使成本上升，供应链受限的情况正在恶化。\nHartnett指出：“通货膨胀现在正在引发滞胀。”投资者需要继续观察德尔塔变种的发展轨迹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3087,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5609519,"commentId":"5609519","gmtCreate":1629643922225,"gmtModify":1663232740039,"authorId":4089935716745030,"author":{"id":4089935716745030,"idStr":"4089935716745030","authorId":4089935716745030,"name":"阿德里亚诺89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aff0569ac57d7d0ff8264056b3cbd15","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.08.30","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832254629,"objectIdStr":"832254629","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Hao","text":"Hao","html":"Hao","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}