To The Moon

Anthropic is preparing for one of the biggest technology IPOs in history. The company behind Claude AI has set an indicative price range of $70–$78 per share, with its planned Nasdaq ticker symbol ANT.

The proposed valuation is attracting attention because earlier expectations had reportedly reached $2 trillion. After the recent sell-off in technology and AI stocks, the lower price range may look more attractive. But does that make Anthropic a bargain?

I think investors need to look beyond the headline valuation.

1. Extraordinary revenue growth

Anthropic’s growth figures are impressive.

Third-quarter 2026 revenue reached approximately $17 billion, compared with $1.4 billion in the same quarter last year. That represents more than 12 times year-on-year growth.

Even more striking, its October revenue run rate reportedly reached $81 billion.

This suggests that businesses are increasingly willing to pay for AI tools that can improve productivity, automate work and support software development.

Unlike companies relying mainly on future AI demand, Anthropic already has a growing commercial business. That is an important advantage.

2. Is the IPO valuation really attractive?

The proposed IPO price is $70–$78 per share, with 825 million shares included in the offering.

At the midpoint, the valuation is approximately $1 trillion using the basic share count. On a fully diluted basis, including additional shares and securities, estimates are closer to $1.3–$1.4 trillion.

That distinction matters.

The company is being valued at roughly 12–13 times its annualised October revenue run rate. Compared with some established technology companies, this may appear reasonable given Anthropic’s growth.

However, investors should remember that an annualised revenue run rate is not the same as guaranteed future revenue. Growth could slow, competition could intensify, and customers may become more price-sensitive.

3. Profitability is improving, but costs remain enormous

One encouraging development is the improvement in Anthropic’s adjusted operating performance.

The company reported approximately $2.5 billion in adjusted operating profit for the third quarter, representing a margin of around 15%.

Its longer-term target is a 35% margin.

However, adjusted figures should not be confused with GAAP earnings. Large non-cash accounting adjustments linked to convertible securities make the reported financial results more complicated.

There is another major concern: infrastructure commitments.

Anthropic disclosed approximately $900.9 billion in aggregate committed spending, much of it related to computing capacity and infrastructure. Around $70.7 billion is expected to be incurred in the 12 months following September 2026.

These commitments are enormous. Even with strong revenue growth, the company must prove that its infrastructure spending can generate sustainable returns.

4. The IPO could affect the wider AI market

Anthropic’s IPO will not only be important for its own investors.

Major technology companies, including $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ,$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ,$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ , AMD, Broadcom and TSMC, are connected to the AI ecosystem and some are participating in a separate $26 billion strategic investment.

A successful listing could strengthen confidence in AI infrastructure spending and benefit companies supplying chips, memory, networking equipment and cloud services.

However, a disappointing debut could have the opposite effect. It could encourage investors to question whether AI valuations have moved too far ahead of actual returns.

5. My investment approach

I would be interested in Anthropic, but I would not automatically buy at the IPO price.

There are three things I would watch:

• IPO demand: Strong institutional and retail demand could support the initial listing, but enthusiasm alone does not guarantee long-term performance.

• Revenue quality: I want to see recurring customer demand and continued growth, rather than relying only on an impressive annualised run rate.

• Profitability and spending: The company needs to demonstrate that computing costs and infrastructure commitments can be managed as revenue expands.

I would also watch how ANT trades during its first few sessions. IPOs can experience considerable volatility as early investors take profits and the market establishes a fair price.

Final thoughts

Anthropic has something many young technology companies do not: substantial revenue, rapid customer adoption and improving adjusted operating margins.

But a great company is not automatically a great investment at any price.

The $1 trillion valuation may look reasonable when compared with its growth, yet the enormous infrastructure commitments and uncertain long-term economics cannot be ignored.

For me, the most important question is not whether Claude can continue growing. It is whether Anthropic can turn that growth into sustainable cash flow.

I would rather wait for the market to establish a trading range than chase the excitement of the first day.

For discussion purposes only.