To The Moon

Anthropic could be preparing one of the biggest technology IPOs in history, but its latest filing confusion has already given investors something to think about.

According to Reuters, Anthropic briefly circulated IPO details to banks showing plans to sell approximately 867 million shares at US$70–US$80 each. At the top of that range, the offering could have raised around US$69.3 billion.

However, the company subsequently withdrew the information, saying the pricing details were inaccurate and that an updated filing would follow. Anthropic has not confirmed that the US$70–US$80 price range or the nearly US$70 billion fundraising target represents its final plan.

The important question is not simply how much money Anthropic can raise. It is whether public-market investors are prepared to pay a premium for an AI company that still requires enormous investment to grow.

1. Anthropic has become a major force in the AI industry

Founded in 2021 by former OpenAI executives, Anthropic has quickly established itself as a major player through its Claude family of AI models.

Its growth has attracted support from some of the world’s largest technology companies, including Google, Amazon and Nvidia.

The company’s financial performance is also attracting attention. Recent disclosures showed revenue of almost US$17 billion for the three months ended September 30. However, rapid revenue growth does not automatically translate into sustainable profits.

Anthropic also faces substantial infrastructure costs. Its disclosed computing commitments are enormous, highlighting how much capital and computing capacity will be needed to support its expansion.

This is the central investment question: Can Anthropic turn strong demand for Claude into lasting profits while managing the cost of developing increasingly powerful AI models?

2. The technology giants are both investors and competitors

One particularly interesting detail in the withdrawn filing was the proposed US$26 billion private placement involving major technology companies.

The companies named included Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC.

This highlights how closely connected the AI industry has become. These companies may benefit from Anthropic’s growth through demand for chips, memory, cloud computing and other infrastructure.

However, there is another side to this relationship.

Some of these companies are also developing their own AI models and services. They can be Anthropic’s suppliers, investors, business partners and competitors at the same time.

That creates opportunities, but it also raises questions about how much of Anthropic’s future growth depends on a relatively small group of powerful technology partners.

3. A huge IPO does not automatically mean an attractive investment

Investors should be careful not to confuse a large fundraising target with a good investment opportunity.

A high-profile IPO can generate enormous attention, particularly when the company operates in one of the market’s most exciting industries. But the final valuation will matter.

If Anthropic lists at an extremely high valuation, investors will need to consider whether future revenue and profits can justify that price.

There are several risks worth watching:

• Valuation risk: Strong AI demand may already be reflected in an ambitious IPO valuation.

• Infrastructure costs: Developing and operating advanced AI models requires enormous computing resources.

• Competition: OpenAI, Google and other technology companies are investing heavily in their own AI platforms.

• Profitability: Revenue growth needs to translate into improving margins and sustainable cash flow.

• Market sentiment: Recent volatility in AI-related stocks shows that investors are becoming more selective about expensive AI investments.

4. What could Anthropic’s IPO mean for other AI stocks?

A successful listing could provide another boost to confidence in the AI industry.

Chipmakers, cloud providers, memory manufacturers and data-centre infrastructure companies could all benefit if Anthropic’s public debut demonstrates that investors remain willing to fund large-scale AI expansion.

Companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Micron are particularly relevant because they are exposed to different parts of the AI infrastructure supply chain.

However, the opposite scenario is also possible.

If investors question Anthropic’s valuation or its ability to generate profits, the IPO could highlight the gap between the enormous capital being invested in AI and the financial returns that companies still need to deliver.

That would be an important signal for the wider AI trade.

My View

Anthropic’s potential IPO is a major event to watch, but I would not judge its investment appeal by the nearly US$70 billion headline alone.

The most important details will be the final share price, valuation, revenue growth, operating losses, computing commitments and path towards profitability.

The withdrawal of the initial pricing details also reminds investors that the proposed figures are not final. Until the updated filing arrives, there is no confirmed basis for valuing the offering at those terms.

AI may remain one of the biggest long-term investment themes, but not every company will necessarily deliver returns that justify its valuation.

For discussion purposes only, not financial advice.