To The Moon

October was a difficult month for technology investors. Concerns about excessive AI spending, stretched valuations and weaker confidence in the returns from data centre investments put pressure on technology shares.

However, November is bringing a different set of opportunities and risks for both US and Hong Kong markets.

I believe investors should pay particular attention to three developments: the US midterm elections, the Ant Group IPO story and NVIDIA’s performance.

Each represents a different part of the investment landscape, from political uncertainty and China’s financial technology sector to the global AI infrastructure boom.

1. US Midterm Elections: Could Political Uncertainty Become a Market Headwind?

The US midterm election results have delivered a significant political development, with Democrats securing majorities in both the House and Senate.

Markets initially reacted cautiously. AI-related shares faced selling pressure across Asian markets, US futures fell before recovering some losses, and Treasury yields declined.

For investors, the important question is what this means for technology companies.

A change in congressional control could bring greater scrutiny of AI regulation, data centre development and technology businesses. It could also complicate discussions around government spending and the federal budget.

However, I would not automatically interpret the election outcome as negative for the entire US stock market.

Corporate earnings, interest rates and economic growth will continue to matter more over the longer term.

My focus would be on whether technology stocks can regain momentum once the immediate political uncertainty settles.

2. Ant Group: Could China’s Fintech Sector Regain Investor Attention?

Ant Group remains an interesting name in China’s financial technology industry.

Its proposed record-breaking IPO was suspended in November 2020, becoming one of the most significant regulatory events in China’s technology sector.

The company operates Alipay and has a substantial position in digital payments and financial services.

Although investors should not assume a new listing is confirmed, any credible developments concerning Ant Group’s listing plans would be worth monitoring.

Why does this matter for Hong Kong?

Hong Kong has become an important destination for Chinese companies seeking international capital. A major fintech listing could potentially attract institutional interest and improve sentiment towards the broader Hong Kong IPO market.

I would also watch Alibaba (BABA), given its significant ownership interest in Ant Group.

However, a potential IPO would not automatically translate into higher Alibaba earnings or a stronger share price. Valuation, regulatory conditions and the structure of any listing would all matter.

3. NVIDIA: Is the AI Investment Cycle Still Intact?

NVIDIA remains one of the most important stocks to watch this November.

Its shares gained approximately 2.3% on Tuesday, helping support the Nasdaq as investors returned to selected AI-related stocks.

Despite recent volatility, the long-term demand for AI computing remains substantial.

Major technology companies continue investing in data centres, GPUs and supporting infrastructure. NVIDIA is well positioned to benefit from this spending.

However, there is a growing distinction between AI demand and AI profitability.

Investors are increasingly asking whether the enormous capital expenditure by hyperscalers will generate sufficient returns.

For NVIDIA, I would monitor three things:

• Data centre revenue growth and customer demand.

• The pace of new GPU deployments and supply availability.

• Whether major customers continue increasing AI infrastructure spending.

NVIDIA’s next earnings report on November 17 will be particularly important.

A strong result could restore confidence in semiconductor stocks, but even excellent earnings may not guarantee further share price gains if expectations are already too high.

4. Hong Kong vs US Markets: Where Are the Better Opportunities?

I think the two markets offer different investment opportunities.

The US market continues to offer exposure to global technology leaders, AI infrastructure and semiconductor innovation.

Hong Kong offers exposure to Chinese technology, financial services, consumer businesses and companies that may benefit from improving domestic confidence.

However, investors should not assume that a recovery in US technology stocks will automatically translate into a recovery in Chinese technology shares.

China’s regulatory environment, domestic economic conditions and capital flows create additional variables.

I would be selective in both markets rather than treating either as an obvious buying opportunity.

My November Investment Strategy

My preference is to remain selective and focus on companies with strong earnings visibility, competitive advantages and sustainable cash flow.

For the US market, NVIDIA remains a key stock on my watchlist. I would also monitor AMD as competition in AI semiconductors intensifies.

For Hong Kong, Alibaba is worth watching because of its exposure to cloud computing, AI development and its relationship with Ant Group.

I would avoid chasing sharp rallies and instead look for opportunities when market volatility creates more attractive valuations.

My Conclusion

November could become an important month for both markets, but I think the biggest investment opportunity will depend on whether market sentiment is supported by actual business performance.

The US elections will influence political and regulatory expectations. Ant Group represents the longer-term potential of China’s fintech and capital markets, while NVIDIA remains a key indicator of the health of the global AI investment cycle.

My biggest question is whether investors will continue paying premium valuations for AI growth or start demanding clearer evidence of profitability.

For now, I remain interested in technology and AI infrastructure, but I believe earnings quality and valuation discipline will matter more than market excitement.

For discussion purposes only.