To The Moon

My Investing Muse (26Oct2026)

Waiting for the AI bank run

An “AI bank run” is a possible risk, not a reported event [scenario]. In a bank run, withdrawals outpace repayment. Here, lenders and investors could withdraw funding faster than AI projects can replace it or renew debt. The risk is in credit markets, not bank queues. Rising lower-rated data-centre financing makes this scenario relevant.

Cybersecurity and AI oversight. [fact] Last week brought an urgent CISA patch alert, a PyTorch supply-chain flaw and a critical GitLab bug. Claims that OpenAI lacks resources to address concerns are unverified. Can oversight keep pace with more autonomous AI? Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 IPO in September [fact]; a listing remains a future possibility. Listings require disclosure, while regulators separately oversee AI safety. Both matter.

US election. [fact] Election Day is 3 November. Results start that night; close races may take longer. By 20 October, 12.6 million votes were cast, including 8.35 million mail ballots (Axios); a record is unverified. Campaigning continues for undecided voters. [forecast] The economy, outlook and war are key issues, seemingly most challenging for incumbents. The next Congress will shape 2027 fiscal, energy and technology-policy expectations.

Gulf shipping and energy. [fact] Iranian attacks continue in and near Hormuz, with at least ten vessel attacks recently. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia are related but separate. Hormuz disruption directly affects oil supply; the Houthi campaign has different regional effects. Both can raise energy and shipping costs, inflation and rates, affecting asset values.

Weather and earthquakes. [fact] Typhoon Champi affected Taiwan and is heading towards Japan; Japan’s weather agency classed it as a severe tropical storm on 24 October. No unverified casualty count is included. [forecast] US risks include south-east coastal storms and west-coast atmospheric rivers—concentrated moisture bringing heavy rain. These affect insurers, farming and energy demand, but forecasts are not investment signals. Tibet’s 22 October Nagqu earthquake is confirmed; assessments continue. It is included for completeness, not market impact.

Markets and AI funding. [fact] From 16 to 23 October, the S&P 500 fell 0.47% and Nasdaq 0.71% amid AI-financing concerns (Yahoo Finance closes). This does not prove widespread forced selling. Transformer, power and water shortages, plus local opposition, can delay data centres, raise costs and postpone revenue despite demand. Some major listings reportedly stalled financially; cheaper Chinese models add competition. Investors need evidence of results and a route to profit. Anthropic records some partner revenue gross; OpenAI reports its net share. Compare revenue, cash losses, commitments and profitability consistently. Some overdue car, mortgage and card payments show stress, but the New York Fed’s overall Q2 measures improved slightly.

Job cuts. [fact] Reported cuts: American Express about 3,500; Barclays 5,000; eBay roughly 9%; Netflix about 1,000. Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff. Cost savings are visible; extra revenue from AI efficiencies remains a forecast.

European disruption. [fact] The US Embassy confirmed violence, looting and local curfews in parts of France; Italy deployed military personnel. Riots in more than twenty countries are unverified, as are possible protests next week, including Germany. Lasting disruption could hurt retail, travel and insurance earnings and raise pressure for security spending, subsidies and tariffs.

Closing view. I favour hedging risk, taking some profits and avoiding borrowing to invest. [forecast] My concern is concentrated AI exposure and oil-driven inflation, not equities broadly. Normal Gulf shipping, better credit conditions or AI revenue turning into cash would reduce my caution. Protection costs money: hedges can reduce gains, and profit-taking may trigger taxes. Position size matters more than forecast confidence.

Stay informed and keep potential losses affordable. I wish everyone a safe investing week.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Keep your long-term plan: spend within your means, invest only what you can afford to lose and avoid borrowing, especially as rates and price swings rise. Keep a watchlist, seek quality at fair prices and spread investments across sectors and countries. Control position sizes, review and rebalance regularly; do not let weekly headlines dictate strategy.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

Disclaimer: For information and education only—not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Third-party figures are believed reliable but not guaranteed. Do your own due diligence and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate.

@TigerStars

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