[Earnings Recap] SpaceX Surges 8% on AI Boom. Could a Tesla Merger Be Next?
SpaceX surged more than 8% after hours as revenue jumped 161% and its AI business overtook Starlink. Elon Musk also raised the possibility of a merger with Tesla, adding to the excitement.
Netflix fell nearly 6% on weaker advertising guidance, while GM slid despite a $20 billion buyback plan. 3M stood out as a winner, gaining nearly 5% after raising its outlook.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ gained more than 8% in late after-hours trading
SpaceX operates rocket-launch services, the Starlink satellite network and a fast-growing AI computing business.
Third-quarter revenue surged 161% to $14.58 billion, easily beating Wall Street's $12.72 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS reached 45 cents, compared with expectations of 13 cents. Net income swung to $4.4 billion from a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier.
Its Super Intelligence division generated $7.56 billion in revenue, up roughly 830% from a year ago. Much of that growth came from selling computing capacity to AI developers, including Google and Anthropic.
Management expects first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion, but the expansion comes at a price: fourth-quarter capital spending is projected at $35 billion to $40 billion.
Shares gained more than 8% in late after-hours trading. Investors welcomed the AI growth, while Musk's comments about a possible Tesla merger added another catalyst. Both companies have formed independent committees, but no deal has been agreed.
$Netflix(NFLX)$ fell nearly 6% after hours.
Netflix is a global streaming platform that makes money from subscriptions and advertising.
Third-quarter revenue rose 11.8% to $12.87 billion, in line with expectations. EPS of 87 cents beat the 82-cent consensus, with net income climbing 44%.
But Netflix cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast to $2.7 billion, down from roughly $3 billion. It also guided for fourth-quarter EPS of 67 cents, below analysts' 73-cent estimate.
Shares fell nearly 6% after hours. Advertising products have rolled out more slowly than planned, and revenue growth has slowed to its weakest pace in almost three years.
$3M(MMM)$ gained nearly 5%
3M manufactures industrial materials, adhesives, safety products and consumer brands such as Post-it and Scotch.
Third-quarter sales were about $6.6 billion, slightly below the $6.61 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of $2.50 topped the $2.38 consensus.
Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $9.10–$9.15, up from $8.80–$8.95. It also expanded its relationship with Amazon to supply optical connectivity products for data centers.
The stock gained nearly 5%. Improving margins and a stronger earnings outlook helped, but the Amazon deal also highlighted 3M's growing exposure to AI infrastructure spending.
$General Motors(GM)$ declined about 7%
General Motors makes Chevrolet, Cadillac and GMC vehicles, with pickup trucks and SUVs driving much of its profit.
Third-quarter revenue reached $50 billion, above the roughly $48.7 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $3.70 beat expectations of $3.63, supported by strong sales of high-margin trucks.
GM announced a new $20 billion share-repurchase authorization and narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.75–$13.75. The midpoint, however, fell below Wall Street's $13.41 estimate.
Shares declined about 7%. Rising commodity and logistics costs, along with fewer expected pickup deliveries during model changeovers, overshadowed the earnings beat and buyback.
Discussion
If you could own just one Elon Musk stock for the next year, which would you pick: $SpaceX(SPCX)$ or $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? And why?
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SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. Its Q3 revenue surged 161% to $14.58 billion, while its AI division generated $7.56 billion, overtaking Starlink as its largest revenue segment. This creates growth engines across AI computing, satellite connectivity and space infrastructure.
Tesla has enormous potential in robotaxis, autonomous driving and Optimus robots. However, its future valuation depends on turning ambitious promises into sustainable profits.
SpaceX's biggest risk is execution. Its AI infrastructure expansion requires enormous capital spending, and today's growth may already be reflected in its valuation.
My bottom line: SpaceX offers stronger momentum, while Tesla is a speculative bet on future breakthroughs. I would choose SpaceX for growth, but only at a reasonable entry price. A potential merger is a catalyst, not an investment thesis.
@Tiger_Earnings [财迷]
The potential $SpaceX(SPCX)$ merger is worth watching, but without confirmed terms, I would not invest based on speculation alone. SpaceX’s rapid expansion also comes with substantial capital expenditure, making cash flow and execution important factors.
As a long-term Tesla investor, I remain bullish on its potential but will stay disciplined about valuation. For me, the real opportunity lies in sustainable growth and execution, not just exciting announcements. I would rather accumulate patiently on pullbacks than chase a rally driven by hype.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_Earnings
Tesla still has significant upside if autonomy and robotaxi execution accelerate, but expectations are already extremely high and its core automotive business faces intense competition. Over a one-year horizon, that makes execution risk particularly important.
SpaceX appeals to me because it has multiple growth engines. Starlink, aerospace and the rapidly expanding AI business provide greater diversification, while rising global demand for connectivity, space infrastructure and AI compute could support further earnings growth.
The key risk is valuation. Exceptional growth does not automatically make a stock attractive at any price. I would want to see revenue growth translate into sustainable margins and cash flow.
Between the two, though, I prefer SpaceX’s broader growth story and diversification. My pick: $SpaceX(SPCX)$.
我的理由不是Tesla的想象空间一定比SpaceX大，而是投资首先需要能够验证的信息。
**第一，业务增长要区分收入与现金流。** Starlink的卫星互联网业务具备长期潜力，AI算力也可能带来新增长，但巨额资本开支意味着营收快速增长未必能同步转化为自由现金流。尤其是帖子中关于SpaceX上市、SPCX交易代码和AI业务财报的数据，我认为必须先通过官方披露及交易所信息核实，不能直接作为投资依据。
**第二，Tesla的增长逻辑相对容易跟踪。** 汽车交付量、单车利润率、储能业务收入和自由现金流都有公开财报可以验证。至于FSD和Optimus，我会将其视为潜在增长机会，而不是提前按照全面商业化成功来估值。
**第三，合并传闻不一定意味着股东受益。** 即使两家公司未来真的讨论整合，交易估值、股权稀释、资金需求及治理安排，都可能改变最终投资回报。
这轮财报季还有一个很值得思考的现象：有些公司EPS超预期却下跌，有些公司营收略低于预期却上涨。说明市场真正交易的是未来盈利预期的变化，而不只是过去一个季度的成绩。
**我的核心观点：马斯克的商业版图值得长期关注，但投资不能只看故事有多宏大，还要看股东最终能分到多少现金流。**
所以我选TSLA，同时保持耐心，不会因为合并传闻或盘后暴涨就追高。🐯
原因有3个：
1）业务机会更多元：火箭发射、星链卫星网络和AI计算业务，都可能成为未来增长动力。
2）AI发展潜力：如果AI计算业务持续增长，SpaceX未来的收入来源可能更加多元化。
3）长期想象空间大：如果相关业务成功扩张，未来可能有更多成长机会。
但要注意：
AI业务增长快，不代表未来一定赚钱。
巨额资本开支可能带来资金压力。
与Tesla合并目前只是可能性，不能当成已经确定的利好。
如果估值太高，即使公司很好，买入后也可能亏钱。
我的最终看法
追求成熟业务，考虑Tesla；追求更高成长潜力、也能承担更大风险，才考虑SpaceX。
如果是新手，我不会因为SpaceX盘后上涨8%就急着买入，而会先了解它的真实估值、现金流和上市交易情况。
记住：成长潜力越大，不代表投资风险越小。
原因很简单：
Tesla（TSLA）
电动车是目前的核心业务，还有自动驾驶和机器人等发展机会。
投资者比较容易通过财报了解它的收入和盈利。
风险：竞争激烈，利润可能下降，未来增长也可能不如预期。
SpaceX（SPCX）
火箭、星链和AI业务都有发展潜力。
如果AI业务持续增长，未来可能有很大的发展空间。
风险：资本开支庞大，而且与Tesla合并目前仍未确定，不能把传闻当成事实。
我的投资看法
Tesla相对容易分析；SpaceX的潜在增长机会吸引人，但不确定性也更高。
不过，最重要的是买入价格。如果Tesla估值太高，而SpaceX估值合理，我也会重新考虑。
另外，以上是根据你提供的资料进行分析，并不代表已经核实最新财报或交易情况。
你比较想要哪一种？
稳健型：优先考虑风险和盈利。
成长型：愿意承担较大风险，追求更高回报。