The S&P 500’s Seasonal Rally Is Back on Track. But Has Q4 Upside Been Pulled Forward?
Tips and Takeaways from this week’s charts:
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The equal-weighted $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is following the seasonal script.
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Election cycle seasonality is very bullish for Q4 and 2027.
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(but a key question: have we already brought some of this forward?)
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Semis are slipping, and continue to trade at a significant premium.
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Macro headwinds loom in 2027, effective borrowing costs set to rise.
See below for the full set of charts and details behind these points + the [new] market outlook section at the end for my latest assessment.
1. Technical Check:
After a sizeable selloff, the equal-weighted S&P500 is ticking up off the lows —breadth is also ticking up after a hefty reset.
The headline cap-weighted S&P500 is also looking to be shaking-off its period of relative stagnation; likewise ticking up and even notching-up a new all-time-high.
2. Seasonality -did- work after all?
Here’s an interesting angle —if you look at the headline S&P500 index we didn’t really get a seasonal slump as many expected…
But if you look at the Equal-Weighted S&P500 it followed the seasonal script very closely: rebounding off the lows almost exactly in line with the typical seasonal pattern for the S&P500.
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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