Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance mean investors need to absorb more duration, while inflation uncertainty makes them demand higher compensation for holding 10Y and 30Y bonds. That can push long yields higher even if the Fed eventually pauses.
So I am watching Treasury supply, auction demand and the term premium closely. If those pressures persist, a Fed pause may bring limited relief to long yields, keeping valuation pressure on equities, especially long-duration growth stocks.
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