To The Moon

Economic Calendar (05Oct2026)

caption...Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com)

After last week’s triple-feature (RBA, PCE, payrolls), this week is deliberately quiet — which makes each item carry more weight, and leaves the tape more exposed to headlines than to data. China is on Golden Week holiday Monday to Wednesday, thinning Asia liquidity.

1. FOMC minutes (Wednesday 7 October, 2:00 pm ET). The one genuine event of the week: the record of the meeting that delivered the first rate rise in three years (to 3.75–4.00%). After Friday’s soft payrolls (+29K — see below), the minutes tell us how much of the decision was inflation-fighting conviction versus insurance. Watch the language on oil pass-through and on how many participants wanted to signal another rise in October. [Investing.com calendar screenshot supplied by Benson]

2. Services side of the economy (Monday 5 October). ISM non-manufacturing PMI for September (forecast 55.7, previous 55.4) and S&P Global services PMI (forecast 58.7). The ISM prices-paid sub-index (previous 72.6) is the number to watch — services inflation is where tariff and wage pressure show up last and leave slowest.

3. The long end gets tested (Thursday 8 and Friday 9 October). A 10-year note auction (previous 4.834%) on Thursday and a 30-year bond auction (previous 5.308%) on Friday, with weekly jobless claims (previous 197K) Thursday as well. With the 30-year yield having run to ~5.5%, these auctions are now events in themselves: a weak tail at either would say the bond market’s inflation premium is still building; strong demand would suggest buyers are finally being paid enough to show up.

Also on the radar: crude inventories Wednesday (previous +0.922M barrels) with Brent having slipped back under US$100; China returns Thursday.

Earnings Calendar (05Oct2026)

Earnings calendar for the week (source: Wall Street Bets weekly thread)

This week’s teaching case: Delta Air Lines, reporting September-quarter results on Friday 9 October before the open. Data compiled by Kimi from the Yahoo Finance plugin and public sources. After three weeks of cyclicals and megacaps, Delta is a useful change of specimen: a mature, capital-heavy, commodity-exposed business where the skill is reading costs and cash, not stories.

Valuation and sentiment. Closed Friday at US$84.09 (+48.5% over twelve months), market cap ~US$55.3B.

· Trailing P/E 13.9x, forward 10.3x — a normal airline multiple; unlike Micron, nobody is pricing a miracle here.

· 24 analysts, consensus strong buy, mean target US$102.23 (~22% implied upside).

· Management’s FY2026 guidance: EPS US$6.50–7.50 versus trailing US$6.03 — they are promising a better second half. Yahoo Finance plugin data; guidance via MarketBeat (https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/delta-air-lines-nysedal-releases-q3-2026-earnings-guidance-2026-07-10/)

The demand backdrop — two currents.

· Mix: premium and corporate travel carry the revenue while price-sensitive leisure softens — worth watching as September’s payrolls (+29K) suggest the labour market is cooling. Airlines feel that turn early; Delta has built itself to earn from the front of the cabin.

· Fuel: jet fuel is the largest variable cost; Brent has ranged ~US$92–102 on the Iran conflict, and the Exxon outage tightened supply further. Delta owns a refinery (Monroe Energy), which cushions but does not remove the exposure. Qualifying an airline means qualifying two businesses: an airline, and a fuel hedge with seats attached.

Revenue growth and profitability — the four-year picture (December fiscal year):

Two lessons here. Revenue has grown every year since the pandemic hole — the demand story is working. But net income swings around that steady top line: 1.3, 4.6, 3.5, 5.0. In a high-fixed-cost, fuel-exposed business, small changes in revenue or fuel land as large changes in profit. That operating leverage is why airlines trade at 10–14x rather than 25x — the market charges for the swings in advance. Yahoo Finance plugin data; FY2025 adjusted figures via Delta IR (https://ir.delta.com/news/news-details/2026/Delta-Air-Lines-Announces-June-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx)

Balance sheet — the repair story. Assets US$81.3B, liabilities US$60.5B, equity US$20.9B.

· Total debt: US$30.6B (end-2022) → 27.3 → 22.8 → US$20.3B (end-2025) — four years of steady paydown.

· Debt-to-equity improved from a pandemic-era 4.7x to ~0.97x; Q1 2026 alone cut adjusted net debt a further US$3.3B year on year.

· In a 4%-and-rising rate world, a shrinking debt pile is the difference between surviving the next downturn and diluting you through it. The trend is verifiable rather than promised. Delta Q1 2026 release (https://ir.delta.com/news/news-details/2026/Delta-Air-Lines-Announces-March-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx)

Cash flow.

· FY2025: operating cash flow US$8.3B, capex US$4.5B, free cash flow US$3.8B — FCF positive and growing three straight years (0.0 → 1.1 → 2.9 → 3.8).

· At US$55.3B, the stock trades near 20x trailing FCF — not cheap for an airline, defensible if paydown continues and fuel cooperates.

· The contrast with last week: Micron turns enormous profits into modest cash because it is building; Delta turns modest profits into real cash because it is repairing.

Recent news (compiled by Kimi).

· Q2 revenue +18.7% y/y to US$17.67B; adjusted EPS US$1.56 beat US$1.49 estimates; dividend raised to US$0.215 from US$0.19; Q3 guided at EPS US$2.00–2.50.

· The soft spot: Q1 showed a GAAP net loss of US$289M on mark-to-market moves, not operations — always read past Delta’s GAAP headline. Delta Q1 2026 release (https://ir.delta.com/news/news-details/2026/Delta-Air-Lines-Announces-March-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx), MarketBeat (https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/delta-air-lines-nysedal-releases-q3-2026-earnings-guidance-2026-07-10/)

The forecast. Consensus for Friday: EPS ~US$2.37 (guide US$2.00–2.50) on revenue ~US$14.4–14.5B — the consensus sits in the top half of the guided range, so expectations are not humble. Watch: premium-versus-leisure mix, non-fuel unit costs, any update on the FY2026 EPS path (reiteration matters more than the quarter), and fuel commentary. This is not financial advice; it is one company’s file, opened so we can practise reading it. Please do your own due diligence before acting on anything here.

CNBC via Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/cnbc/posts/1420611196606936/)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Oct2026)

Technicals as of Friday 2 October close, pulled via Yahoo Finance data:

· Close: 7,722.72 — 1.2% below the 52-week high of 7,816.70, and +12.6% year to date

· Moving averages: price above the MA50 (7,658) and MA200 (7,226); MA50 above MA200 — the trend structure is intact

· MACD: 10.98, marginally below signal 11.12 — momentum has stalled at the highs, though the histogram is improving (−0.14 from −3.02)

· RSI(14): 54.8 — neutral

· Chaikin Money Flow (20): −0.053 — has slipped negative; money trickling out at the highs

· Stochastic: %K 78.3 above %D 62.9 — recovering

· Overall ten-rule gauge: 7 buy / 3 sell — still constructive, but last week’s clean sweep is gone: MACD cross, money flow and 20-day momentum have all turned.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index closed the week at 31 (fear), down from 37 a week earlier. ⚠️ Via the finhacker.cz mirror of CNN’s series — grab the CNN-direct screenshot before publishing.

One way to read the week just past: cooler PCE (core 3.0% y/y) and a weak payrolls print took the immediate heat out of the October-hike story — yet the index fell slightly and fear rose. That tells us the marginal buyer is less worried about rates than about growth. With a thin calendar ahead, the market will trade on auctions, minutes and headlines — Iran/Hormuz remains the swing headline, and Delta on Friday is the first big read on whether the consumer slowdown has reached the airlines.

Weekly Outlook: NEUTRAL, leaning cautious (working posture, subject to Benson’s confirmation). The uptrend is unbroken, but the internals have cooled at exactly the moment the labour data cracked. A weekly close below the MA50 (~7,658) would argue for genuine defensiveness; a recovery of money flow (CMF back above zero) with a calm FOMC minutes reading would restore last week’s constructive footing.

News and my thoughts from the past week (05Oct2026)

The fuel cluster (📷 1–4):

1. 📷 Diesel will “not return to normal for a year.” Energy executives in the Dallas Fed survey expect high fuel costs to persist — with pump signs already showing diesel above US$8/gallon in places and petrol above US$6. This is no longer a spike; it is being budgeted as a condition. - Financial Times

Diesel above US$8/gallon at the pump (FT, via Benson)

2. 📷 China’s refiners suspend October fuel exports; PetroChina cancels cargoes. The world’s swing supplier of refined products is keeping its fuel at home. - Reuters, 1 October

China refiners suspend October fuel exports (Reuters, via Benson)

3. 📷 India’s MRPL cancels three export tenders (diesel, jet fuel, reformate) after a refinery fire. - hydrocarbonprocessing.com, 30 September

MRPL cancels export tenders after refinery fire (hydrocarbonprocessing.com, via Benson)

4. 📷 The UK holds just 42 days of diesel imports in stock — against 677 in the US, 1,025 in Japan and 1,382 in Canada. Australia sits at 31. Resilience is unevenly distributed, and the UK and Australia are at the thin end. - Sky/Jodi, July 2026 data

Days of diesel import cover by country (Sky/Jodi, via Benson)

The long-end cluster (📷 5–7):

5. 📷 The US 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.62% this week, pressing new highs for the cycle. - chart via Benson

US 30-year Treasury yield (chart via Benson)

6. 📷 The UK 30-year gilt yield is at 5.96% — a level unthinkable five years ago, and a reminder that the long-end repricing is global, not American. - TradingView chart via Benson

UK 30-year gilt yield at 5.958% (TradingView, via Benson)

7. 📷 Cayman Islands hedge funds are buying US T-bills faster than ever — record holdings, ~US$225bn to July. Fast money is parking at the short end while the long end sells off; that is a positioning statement about where confidence ends. - Bloomberg

Cayman hedge funds’ record T-bill buying (Bloomberg, via Benson)

The AI scrutiny and financing cluster (📷 8–11):

8. 📷 Amazon is looking to offload ~US$8bn of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special-purpose vehicle and lease them back — an asset-light manoeuvre to shield the balance sheet. When the biggest buyer of AI hardware starts financial engineering around it, the capex cycle is maturing. - FT, via screenshot

Amazon’s ~US$8bn Nvidia-chip SPV lease-back (FT, via Benson)

9. 📷 The 50 largest US data-centre projects — US$396bn of value — are delayed, mostly on power, permits and equipment, with Apple’s Waukee campus pushed ~5 years. The build-out is real; so is the grid. - project-tracking infographic via X (⚠️ treat as directional, not audited)

50 largest US data-centre projects delayed (infographic via X, via Benson)

10. 📷 The FTC is investigating OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies over product risks. Regulation is arriving while the capex is still being spent. - CNBC

FTC investigates AI companies over product risks (CNBC, via Benson)

11. 📷 New Mexico wants Meta to pay US$40bn after its data-privacy trial loss. AI-era liability is finding its price tags. - Yahoo Finance

New Mexico vs Meta, US$40bn (Yahoo Finance, via Benson)

The household cluster (📷 12–14):

12. 📷 US electricity prices have hit US$0.20/kWh, a record, after a steep four-year climb — data centres included among the causes. - Koyfin

US electricity prices at a record US$0.20/kWh (Koyfin, via Benson)

13. 📷 McDonald’s prices are up 67–199% since 2014 — the chart is two years dated (2014 vs 2024 prices), but as a picture of what “transitory” felt like at the drive-through, it explains today’s consumer mood. - via X

McDonald’s prices 2014 vs 2024 (dated chart, via X/Benson)

14. 📷 Apple’s new CEO is reportedly planning layoffs to reshape the company. The lay-off ledger now includes the largest company on earth. - Yahoo Finance

Apple’s new CEO reportedly planning layoffs (Yahoo Finance, via Benson)

Verified by Kimi:

15. The RBA did it. As expected by all four majors, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate 25 bp to 4.60% on Tuesday — the fourth rise of 2026, the highest since 2011. The statement’s reasons are the year’s story in miniature: the Middle East conflict has broadened, energy prices are “much higher than assumed”, and AI-related demand is driving up global prices for technology goods. The AI boom is now literally in a central bank’s inflation statement. RBA media release, 29 September (https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html)

16. The labour market cracked. September payrolls came in at +29,000 against ~+84–90K expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; and the revisions were the uglier news — July revised from +21K to −10K, August from +162K to +133K. Equities rallied on the print (bad news as good news — October-hike odds eased), which is itself a statement about what the market currently fears most. Yahoo Finance/BLS, 2 October (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/september-2026-jobs-report-payrolls-123334753.html)

17. PCE offered the cooler counterweight. August core PCE printed 3.0% year on year and 0.2% month on month, down from 3.3% and a tenth cooler than consensus; real consumer spending rose a healthy 0.6%. Disinflation without collapse — the soft-landing case’s best evidence this month. BEA, 30 September (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026)

18. Micron blew through its own bar. FQ4 revenue of US$54.2B versus ~US$51B expected, adjusted EPS US$33.42 versus ~US$31.6, and next-quarter guidance of US$61.5B ± 1.5B against US$57B expected, with data-centre revenue up eleven-fold. Micron IR (https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-Inc--Reports-Record-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2026-Results/default.aspx), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html)

19. Nike reported Thursday. ⚠️ Result not yet verified at drafting time — Benson, if you want this in the letter, say so and I will pull the print (FQ1 2027: consensus was EPS US$0.44 on ~US$11.3B revenue).

My Investing Muse (05Oct2026)

Severe weather and economic disruption. A series of storms has caused flooding and other disruptions across major Asian cities, while another powerful system is approaching Japan. Spain and France have also experienced flooding, and severe weather has affected parts of the Americas. Reports from several countries include hail, damaging winds and a small tornado, while flooding has also been reported in Johor, Malaysia. These events are likely to affect lives, livelihoods, supply chains, economies and other sectors, and the storm season is far from over. As the world prepares for El Niño to peak toward year-end, further impacts and more severe weather systems may develop. Countries still have time to strengthen their preparedness.

AI hardware and depreciation. A growing concern is how AI companies classify their hardware and propose depreciating it over periods comparable with long-lived assets such as aircraft. AI hardware generally has a much shorter useful life. Extending depreciation schedules may reduce reported costs and increase profits, but it may not reflect the equipment’s practical lifespan. Although the hardware can remain operational beyond that period, rising computational demands and energy consumption can create a mismatch between its continuing use and its accounting treatment.

US affordability and food supply. Attention is also turning to the coming US midterm elections, as the current administration highlights its achievements. At the same time, reports of fast-food chain closures point to fewer affordable dining options. With grocery prices rising, many households are being squeezed from both directions, revealing a widening gap between consumption needs and affordability. If consumers continue to run out of options while a record number of American farms declare bankruptcy, the United States may need to reassess its procurement and food-supply chains.

Market outlook and risk. Artificial intelligence remains a major driver of economic growth, placing substantial weight on the sector. AI companies may therefore contribute significantly to both market gains and market declines. In light of this concentration, some hedging may be prudent.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us close with the principles that keep us steady regardless of what the week brings. Spend within our means. Invest only what we can afford to lose. Avoid leverage, especially with rates rising and volatility returning. Keep a watchlist, buy quality at sensible prices, diversify across sectors and geographies, and let position sizing — not conviction — carry the risk. Review, rebalance, and never let a single week’s headlines rewrite a long-term plan.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$