Market watch: AI, Alibaba and Fed risk
Today’s big theme is risk management before Nvidia earnings. Asian markets are subdued, while oil remains elevated as investors await further Iran-related developments. Nvidia is the key event this week, with the market expecting around US$92bn quarterly revenue, so any guidance surprise could move the entire AI complex.
Alibaba is the standout mover: its HK$80bn share placement to fund AI triggered a sharp sell-off, with shares falling as much as 10%. The long-term AI investment story remains interesting, but dilution and the huge capex burden make this a “wait for stabilisation” trade rather than blindly buying the dip.
Stocks on my watchlist: NVDA, MRVL, MU, BABA and TCEHY.
My trading plan: I would not chase AI stocks ahead of Nvidia. Instead, keep cash ready for a post-earnings volatility spike. A strong Nvidia beat plus constructive guidance could offer a momentum entry in semis. A disappointment could create better risk/reward opportunities in quality AI infrastructure names. For Alibaba, I would wait for selling pressure to exhaust before considering an entry.
The other major catalyst is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech later this week. Any hawkish shift could pressure high-valuation tech stocks.
My pick: wait for volatility, then buy strength rather than guessing the bottom.
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- Phoebezzz·08-24 18:03Thanks for sharing, may I know that do you think Alibaba’s current weakness is mainly a dilution issue, or could the heavy AI capex become a longer-term concern for margins and free cash flow?LikeReport
- chimey·08-24 16:02I care more about the IV crush after earnings than the direction itself. Nvidia can rip, but if guidance is only in line the whole AI trade probably gets messy fastLikeReport