Shyon
08-20 09:39

I’m staying cautious on long-duration bonds for now. A 30-year yield above 5.3% is attractive, but oil prices, inflation concerns, weaker foreign demand and heavy Treasury supply could keep long-term yields elevated. I’d rather wait for more clarity from the Fed minutes and the Iran situation before locking in rates.

For my portfolio, higher yields also mean pressure on high-duration growth and AI stocks because future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. However, I don’t see this as a reason to abandon AI or semiconductors. I’d continue DCA selectively and keep some cash ready for further pullbacks.

For now, I prefer short-duration bonds or cash, while watching for signs that yields have peaked. If the 30-year moves significantly higher but inflation starts cooling, I’d be more comfortable gradually adding long-duration exposure.

@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @WallStreet_Tiger

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment（2）

  • Top
  • Latest
  • Juliaaa11
    ·08-20 18:02
    TOP
    Supply pressure is still the cleaner catalyst here. Next refunding announcement probably matters more near term than Iran, and long end can stay sticky even if inflation cools a bit
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • Shyon: 
      Thanks for leaving your comment
      08-20 23:27
      Reply
      Report