Hardware-Software Seesaw, SPY Always Rises

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

The subtitle of this article is: "We are all just pieces in Wall Street's game." To sum up the recent market action: squeeze the shorts to kill the bears, then nurture the bulls; then crash the market to kill the bulls and feed the bears — and so the cycle continues, giving SPY fresh momentum every time.

The SPY block trade worth noting is this August 31-expiry 785 call $SPY 20260831 785.0 CALL$, opening 33,000 contracts — this is a roll, and the pre-roll position was the August 14-expiry 750 call $SPY 20260814 750.0 CALL$.

In any case, even though we don't know which sector will lead the charge, SPY is going up regardless. So don't overthink it — just lay back and sell puts on SPY $SPY 20260831 770.0 PUT$ .

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$

The bullish catalysts stabilizing the market in August have all had a "four ounces moving a thousand pounds" effect — for example, pushing SNDK higher to lift the storage sector, or Silver Lake's acquisition of WDAY lifting IGV. But the pattern remains one of rotation: once memory stocks finish their rebound, IGV will likely bottom out, and then the trend reverses again — IGV rises while memory stocks fall.

Speaking of which, if SNDK is expected to challenge its previous highs, one could consider a Sell Put + Buy Call combo to place a bet — for example, selling an OTM put to offset the cost of buying an OTM call: $SNDK 20260821 1420.0 PUT$ $SNDK 20260821 2350.0 CALL$

$SpaceX(SPCX)$

The unanswered question for SPCX this week is whether it can break above 150. The probability of a leveraged rally is hard to estimate, but the probability of a Sell Put winning by just sitting back is quite high: $SPCX 20260925 95.0 PUT$.

At this level, shorts have already started to appear — choosing to Sell Call 185 $SPCX 20280121 185.0 CALL$+ Buy Put 125 $SPCX 20280121 125.0 PUT$. In a sense, this block trade isn't necessarily wrong. It just doesn't offer much reference for timing the short.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$

Hynix's rally this round can be described as brutal — and it's also expected to return to its previous highs.

For those holding the underlying stock and feeling uncomfortable with the high levels, a Sell Call + Buy Put combo is quite suitable. For example, there was a block trade selling the 220 call and buying the 120 put $SKHY 20270115 220.0 CALL$ $SKHY 20270115 120.0 PUT$. If the stock rises above 220 next year, it gets sold at 220, with the Sell Call covering the cost of the Buy Put. If the stock falls, the gains from the Sell Call and Buy Put can offset the losses on the underlying position.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

NVIDIA's recent strength is likely tied to rising GPU rental prices. We'll know whether this logic holds once compute futures go live in October. It's unclear whether NVIDIA being linked to futures will be a good or bad thing. In any case, institutions believe NVIDIA won't exceed its previous high this week — Sell Call 230, Buy Call 237.5 $NVDA 20260821 230.0 CALL$  $NVDA 20260821 237.5 CALL$ .

Ahead of earnings, the stock is still expected to hold above 210, making Sell Put a viable strategy.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • vuvence IX
    ·10:01
    nah looks like it is about to go soutg
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