To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 17Aug2026)

Federal Reserve Focus

The FOMC meeting minutes will be released this week and will be closely watched for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors will look for guidance on how policymakers are assessing inflation, employment conditions, and the likely path of interest rates.

Key Economic Indicators

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: The August reading will be released this week. The previous figure stood at 41.4, indicating contraction in the sector.

Initial Jobless Claims: The latest claims data will also be announced, following a previous reading of 209,000. This will be an important labour-market indicator as the Federal Reserve balances inflation control with employment conditions.

Crude Oil Inventories: Inventory data will provide insight into how oil producers and markets are assessing demand. A larger-than-expected drawdown would generally be interpreted as bullish for oil prices.

S&P Global PMIs: The August Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will be released this week. Together, these indicators offer a broad view of activity across goods and services. Based on the previous month’s data, the market will be watching whether both sectors continue to show signs of expansion.

Earnings Calendar (17Aug2026)

Next week’s earnings calendar includes Home Depot, Baidu, Klarna, Walmart and Alibaba. This section focuses on Klarna, given its relevance to consumer finance, digital payments and credit risk. Klarna offers Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services, a reference for consumer debt.

Business and Credit Relevance

Klarna is a digital bank and payments provider offering pay-in-full, buy-now-pay-later, longer-term financing, banking products and merchant tools across major international markets. Its credit relevance lies in its consumer financing model: it extends payment terms, manages repayment risk and depends on customer credit quality, funding costs and merchant transaction volumes.

For credit assessment, the key areas to monitor are underwriting discipline, loan performance, funding resilience, profitability and the company’s ability to scale responsibly. (Summary by Grok)

Market View of Klarna

• Technical analysis: Strong buy

• Analyst sentiment: Buy

• Price target: $24.55, implying potential upside of 18.09%

Profitability and Valuation

Despite positive market signals, Klarna remains unprofitable, with a P/E ratio of -32.4 and EPS of -0.53. This makes earnings quality, margin improvement and the path to sustainable profitability important areas to watch.

Financial Performance: 2022–2025

Klarna’s financial year ends on 31 December. Over the 2022–2025 period, total revenue increased from $1.9 billion to $3.5 billion, while gross profit rose from $0.8 billion to $1.9 billion. Despite this growth, earnings per share remained negative throughout the period. Net losses narrowed, improving from a $1.0 billion loss in 2022 to a $0.24 billion loss in 2025.

Balance Sheet Trends

Between 2023 and 2025, total assets grew from $13.7 billion to $18.7 billion. Total liabilities also increased, rising from $11.5 billion to $16.1 billion, while total debt expanded from $0.47 billion to $1.42 billion. Working capital remained relatively stable, fluctuating between $1.3 billion and $1.34 billion over the three years.

Cash Flow and Liquidity

Cash flow performance weakened over the period. Operating cash flow was positive at $0.33 billion in 2022 but turned negative by more than $1.0 billion in 2025. Free cash flow followed a similar trend, moving from a positive $0.23 billion in 2022 to a negative figure of more than $1.0 billion in 2025. This deterioration is a concern, although Klarna’s ending cash position increased from $1.69 billion in 2022 to $3.8 billion in 2025. Financing cash flow also rose steadily, reaching $0.98 billion in 2025.

Klarna’s top Q2 2026 news (April–June)

In early April, Klarna closed a $1.7 billion Significant Risk Transfer deal (its largest) covering euro-denominated loans, freeing capital to support over $40 billion in lending capacity.

On May 14, it reported strong Q1 results (revenue $1.012 billion, +44% YoY; GMV $33.7 billion, +33%; adjusted operating profit $68 million) and issued Q2 guidance of $960 million–$1 billion revenue, $35.5–$36.5 billion GMV, and $30–$50 million adjusted operating income, citing seasonality. Shares rose on the profitability inflexion.

In May, it launched an AI-powered Shopping Search app inside ChatGPT for real-time product discovery across millions of listings, and partnered with Arrive for parking payments in 15 markets.

June saw a high-yield savings account launch (turning everyday spend into savings), a partnership with Bolt for “pay in full” on rides/scooters, and celebrations of five years in France, alongside other merchant integrations.

Klarna upcoming earnings

Analyst estimates have moved closer to the company’s outlook:

• Revenue: Approximately $996 million (average of ~15 analysts; range roughly $980M–$1.03B). (Source: beta.finance.yahoo.com)

• EPS: Consensus loss of roughly –$0.04 to –$0.07 per share (narrower than the year-ago loss of about –$0.14). (Source: Tipranks)

Given the above performance, I prefer to monitor Klarna for this season.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (17Aug2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on an uptrend.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

This shows a bullish trend.

Chaikin Money Flow

CMF index shows a score of -0.06. This implies more selling momentum than buying momentum.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Strong Buy” rating with 19 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and zero indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “65”, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Greed”. The market continues to reflect a sentiment of “Greed” since the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bullish for the new week. Let us note that there is increasing selling momentum and this could affect the bullish run.

News and my thoughts from the past week (17Aug2026)

OpenAI lost its chief revenue officer, its COO, its product chief, its VP, its head of marketing, its head of ethics, its head of safety, and its chief futurist in the span of a few months. The CRO, Denise Dresser, left after eight months and walked away from what would've been a huge IPO payout. OpenAI is valued at $852 billion and filed its IPO paperwork in June. Investors told CNBC they were surprised by Dresser's exit. - X user Hedgie

Fed official Hammack calls to immediately raise interest rates. - X user Watcher Guru

Jamie Dimon warns America could lose its reserve currency status within 25 years.

My Investing Muse (17Aug2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Summary of top layoff news (10–16 August 2026):Imperial Brands planned thousands of job cuts in the US and Europe for cost savings, with US notifications starting around 19 August (starting with HR/finance roles). Oracle prepared a new round of layoffs (some teams facing double-digit cuts) by early September to fund AI infrastructure after earlier large reductions. Rapid7 announced a ~12% workforce cut (roughly 300 jobs) to refocus on its core cybersecurity platform. Tyson Foods filed notice to close its Eagle Mountain, Utah plant, affecting 723 workers, as part of broader beef operations restructuring amid a severe cattle shortage (also impacting Illinois and Washington sites). FedEx cut about 173 jobs and closed facilities in Southern California under its Network 2.0 efficiency overhaul. Additional WARN notices and smaller tech cuts (e.g., VideoAmp, Bitwise) were reported amid ongoing AI-driven and economic pressures. - Compiled by X

Kroger has closed at least three dozen stores since announcing plans to shutter 60 locations that were not "delivering sustainable results" by the end of 2026 - MacroEdge

Amazon is building a natural gas plant in Pecos County, Texas, to power an AI data center. Its permits allow 33 million tons of carbon dioxide a year, which would make it the single largest source of climate pollution in the country. For comparison, the dirtiest plant operating in America today emits about 16 million tons, so Amazon's is permitted for roughly double that. Amazon co-founded The Climate Pledge in 2019 and promised net-zero emissions by 2040. - X user Hedgie

Are we running into physical bottlenecks for AI?

Seismic and Volcanic Activity

• Indonesia: Mw 7.7 quake off Flores (15 Aug) killed 47–53+, with aftershocks (incl. ~M6.1) and small tsunamis; separate strong quake in North Sumatra same day.

• Spain: M5.2 near Granada (15 Aug) caused building/vehicle damage, no deaths.

• California: M3.8 near San Leandro (13 Aug), widely felt.

• Etna: Eruptive activity (ash, lava) through mid-August; decreasing by 16 Aug. High confidence on events; death tolls still updating.

Extreme Weather and Wildfires

Severe heat, drought and fire weather driving major wildfires across western Europe, US Pacific Northwest and Canada. Climate attribution links conditions to warming.

Infrastructure, Energy and Economic Impact

Record-low river levels (Danube, Po, Rhine) disrupt transport, irrigation and cooling. Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant at ~25% capacity; barges sunk and riverbed sill under construction (15 Aug) to maintain cooling. High confidence.

Market and Geopolitical Context

Hormuz constraints from Iran-related tensions keep oil supply tight and prices elevated. USS Abraham Lincoln logged 260+ days deployed (record consecutive sea time, crew welfare concerns). S&P 500 hit record 7,798.99 (13 Aug).

NVIDIA partnerships aim to mobilize >$500B third-party capital for AI infrastructure. High confidence on these.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Klarna Group plc(KLAR)$