To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  🚀📈🐂 July Strength, Gamma Walls & Why History Still Favors the Bulls 🐂📈🚀

July has earned its reputation as one of the market’s most reliable months, and history suggests the seasonal tailwind remains firmly behind the bulls.

📊 According to Bloomberg Intelligence, since 1993:

✅ Average July return: +1.42%

✅ Positive 65.6% of the time, almost 2 out of every 3 years.

Even more compelling, when the S&P 500 entered July already sitting on gains of 10%+ at the halfway mark, history became remarkably consistent.

📈 Every previous occurrence saw the $SPX finish the year higher.

📈 The average full-year gain in those years reached an impressive +28%.

Does history guarantee another rally? Absolutely not. Markets never repeat perfectly. However, seasonality provides probabilities rather than certainties, and right now those probabilities continue to lean in favour of the bulls.

Adding another interesting twist to 2026…

🟢 Russell 2000 / Small Caps YTD: +20.6%

🟢 S&P 500 YTD: +9.9%

I’m watching this closely because improving participation beyond the mega-cap technology names is generally considered a healthier sign for the broader market. A rally supported by expanding market breadth often proves more durable than one driven by only a handful of stocks.

🎯 From a market structure perspective, options positioning also remains constructive.

📌 The $7,550 strike is currently the Max Value Concentration (MVC) on $SPX, holding the largest concentration of positive Gamma Exposure.

📌 Meanwhile, the $7,500 strike continues acting as an important support zone, with substantial positive Delta positioning helping establish a strong base beneath current prices.

As long as dealers remain comfortably long Gamma around these levels, volatility can stay relatively contained. However, I’m watching closely for any meaningful shifts in positioning, as changes in Gamma exposure often precede changes in market behaviour.

History isn’t a crystal ball, but it does provide valuable context. Between favourable July seasonality, strong first-half momentum, broadening market participation and supportive options positioning, the statistical backdrop continues to favour the bulls.

The biggest mistake investors often make is fighting strong trends simply because prices have already risen. Momentum has a habit of lasting longer than most expect.

❓Here’s a question to think about:

If July’s historical strength plays out once again, will leadership remain with small caps, or will the mega-cap technology stocks reclaim the spotlight during earnings season?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀