To The Moon

For years, the market has fallen into a classic textbook fallacy regarding $Nokia Oyj(NOK)$, stubbornly misclassifying it as a dinosaur mobile vendor bound to cyclical hardware shifts rather than recognizing its modern evolution.

In all honesty, Nokia is no longer a mobile phone company, nor is it a simple telecom service provider like $AT&T Inc(T)$ or $Verizon(VZ)$.

Instead, the company has pivoted and evolved into a core network infrastructure architect, focusing heavily on :

• Specialized fiber-optic technologies.

• High-end routing hardware.

• The exact AI-optimized systems necessary to connect modern data centers.

NOK's Q1 2026 financial results underscore this structural shift.

Its dedicated “Network Infrastructure” segment saw major momentum, with optical networks alone surging +20% YoY, helping drive a significant Q1 adjusted operating profit beat that landed roughly +11% ahead of consensus estimates.

The Bad - Legacy Drags & High Multiples.

Why does general market sentiment remain so hesitant?

A purely mathematical look at NOK's historical and current metrics explains the lag.

(1) Premium Valuations:

• On a trailing 12-month baseline, NOK's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio recently reached an elevated 87x, reflecting a massive surge in share price momentum where the stock gained +111.44% over a 6-month period (as of 18 Jun 2026).

• This is vastly higher than its 5-year historical average of 20.1x.

• For mathematical trading models, this jump over its usual baseline triggered immediate overvaluation warnings, pricing the stock well above its intrinsic fundamental baseline of $4.79, according to Gurufocus.

(2) Telecom Slowdown:

• NOK’s traditional mobile infrastructure is facing a cyclical slowdown.

• Telecommunication provider revenues declined by -2% YoY in Q1 2026.

• The massive "rip-and-replace" mandates across the EU and UK, that legally required telecom carriers to fully remove Huawei hardware out of their networks are entering their final phases.

• While NOK captured massive territory during this transition (splitting British Telecom’s 19,000-site overhaul 50/50 with Ericsson and expanding heavily with Vodafone), that initial heavy spending wave has crested.

(3) Cutthroat Telecom Margins:

• Back in late 2025, when AT&T shifted a massive portion of its future North American cellular network to Ericsson, it served as a stark reminder of how low-margin standard cell tower contracts can be. (see above)

The Good - AI Data-Transport Bottleneck.

The forward-looking investment thesis for NOK relies on a critical fact that the market has systematically underestimated: wide-area data transport.

While capital flows heavily into data center computing power (GPUs), the massive volume of data required to feed these clusters must be moved continuously across long distances.

NOK's internal modeling indicates that by 2034 (7½ years down the road) global wide-area network traffic will surge by +700% easily.

AI tools and autonomous software assistants will account for approx. +30% of all global data traffic.

Unlike AI model training that happens all in one place, using an AI tool happens in real time and requires immediate answers.

As a result, this creates an exponential demand for traffic routing between separate, distributed data hubs.

This is exactly where NOK’s Network Infrastructure segment excels and is uniquely positioned to handle this type of massive traffic through its 2 high-margin technology segments:

(1) Coherent Optical Transport:

• Moving terabytes of data across regional networks requires specialized fiber-optic physics.

• NOK's 1830 Photonic Service Switch platforms utilize custom optical engines (eg. the PSE-6s & the monolithic silicon ICE-D chip) capable of pushing speeds up to 1.2 Terabits per second per wavelength.

• Despite handling more data, the hardware cuts power consumption by up to -75%, matching existing primary operational constraint of modern data facilities.

• To cement this position, NOK announced a massive $30 million expansion of its advanced test and packaging operations in Allentown, Pennsylvania on 16 Jun 2026. (see above)

• Backed by a $10 million federal CHIPS Act tax credit, this facility will scale domestic production of these critical photonic chips by up to 10x by the end of Q3 2026.

(2) Data Center Interconnects (DCI) & Core Routing:

• In the core routing space, Nokia’s proprietary FP5 network processors compete directly against dominant Silicon Valley hardware.

• NOK builds (1) its automated switching networks and (2) core routing operating systems (eg. Service Router Linux) required to handle dense traffic inflows, using quantum-safe, 256-bit hardware encryption.

• Furthermore, in late May 2026, NOK launched its new AI Networking Innovation Lab in Sunnyvale, California, partnering with major infrastructure players like $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, Lenovo, and $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ to design and validate next-generation ultra-low latency AI networking architectures. (see above)

Price Target Revision.

Major global banks and financial institutions have increasingly recognized NOK’s transformation and revised their forecasts upward:

(1) $Bank of America(BAC)$.

• Explicitly stated that NOK should no longer be valued as a legacy mobile gear vendor, but rather as an optical transport & data center switching company.

• In simple English, the bank is saying the pipes and switches that connect AI servers together are becoming a bigger part of the NOK story.

(2) Northland Securities.

• Moved its NOK target from $13 to $20, calling out accelerating AI optical demand and a “sustainable multi‑year cycle” in communications tech, driven by AI data centre capex.

• Clearly indicating, this is not just a one‑quarter pop. It’s a thesis that AI data centers will need massive networking upgrades, and NOK is in the flow of that capex.

(3) CFRA Research.

• CFRA lifted NOK’s 12‑month target to $22 ; confident that NOK’s revenue & EPS growth through 2026–2027.

• This as AI‑driven data center and cloud networking demand ramps.

** Note for traders: When multiple shops independently reframe NOK as an AI optical &data center name, that often supports sustained re‑rating.

AI Future - The Way To Go.

Strategic Catalysts: Nvidia Partnership & 6G Architecture

NOK's technological shift was validated by its deep strategic alliance with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.

In October 2025, NVDA made a $1 billion investment in NOK, to help (a) speed up the development of AI-RAN and (b) transition of the wireless economy to 6G.

In return, NOK has pledged to use NVDA-powered AI RAN products to expand its own portfolio.

The collaboration centers on commercializing “Artificial Intelligence Radio Access Network” (AI-RAN) technologies, powered by NOK's anyRAN software and NVDA's AI Aerial platform. (see below)

Rather than upgrading networks via rigid, expensive hardware cycles, AI-RAN shifts the network to a software-defined layout.

Multi-purpose cloud platforms run both radio workloads and enterprise AI applications simultaneously on shared GPU infrastructure.

Progress Status.

Live testing with tier-one operators—including Orange, BT Group, T-Mobile US, and Vodafone—has proven that this layout vastly improves signal efficiency and power optimization, as reported back in 01 Mar 2026 on NOK’s webportal.

More importantly, it establishes the software-native foundation for the upcoming 6G wireless era, converting cell towers from static data pipes into distributed AI computing nodes.

Other Concurrent Projects.

Apart from the AI-RAN project, NOK has other implementations and projects concurrently.

Below is a high-level glimpse:

(1) Deepfield Genome Shield.

• On 09 Jun 2026, NOK officially launched Deepfield Genome Shield to the public.

• This is a high-margin, recurring software lines to offset cyclical hardware trends.

• Specifically, it is an automated, network-wide cybersecurity platform designed to block high-capacity, multi-terabit cyberattacks at the internet exchange level, using AI.

(2) Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Partnership.

• On 9 Jun 2026, it was announced that NOK and Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison (Indosat or IOH) will partner to modernize Indosat’s nationwide mobile network in Indonesia thru deployment of advanced 5G Radio Access Network (RAN) technologies.

• The project is expectd to take 3½ to complete.

• Separately, NOK is also partnering NVDA & Indosat to test AI-enhanced radio access networks (RAN) in the country. Field trials for the AI-RAN technology are expected to begin before the end of 2026.

(3) Other concurrent projects (at a glance).

Beyond its AI-RAN collaboration, Deepfield Genome shield and Indosat partnership, NOK is heavily focused on transitioning its infrastructure into (a) AI-native, (b) 6G-ready networks, and (c) branching into specialized software, IP networking, enterprise services, and localized AI hardware solutions.

• AI-Native 6G Architecture: NOK is actively co-defining the next generation of wireless networks. Rather than just making networks faster, Nokia's goal is to create platforms where AI is natively integrated into every layer.

• Network as Code Platform: Nokia has expanded its Network as Code platform, allowing global developers and telecommunications partners (like Google Cloud and Tata Communications) to deploy agentic AI & programmable APIs.

• AI Data Center Networking: Nokia is scaling up its IP networks to handle the deterministic, low-latency demands of modern AI factories and compute clusters, connecting AI workloads efficiently across the globe.

• Agentic AI and Autonomous Networks: Nokia is working to automate telecommunications operations up to level 4 autonomy. Their solutions, powered by software like AVA Energy Efficiency, use AI to intelligently manage power usage and optimize active and passive network components.

• Next-Generation Radio Infrastructure: Nokia recently rolled out its AirScale Doksuri Radios, which are built for premium performance, simplified deployment, and high energy efficiency.

• Expanded Industry Alliances: To build these advanced systems, Nokia has broadened its hardware ecosystem by partnering with providers like Red Hat, SuperMicro, and Quanta Cloud Technology in addition to Dell. They are also partnering with major global carriers, including Deutsche Telekom and TIM Brasil, to roll out AI-based tech.

Investor in Space Race ?

Another interesting venture is NOK’s participation as a strategic investor in ICEYE's Series F funding round, which valued the Finnish space-technology company at over €10 billion.

What is ICEYE ?

ICEYE is the world leader in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite technology, operating the largest constellation of its kind.

Unlike traditional optical satellites, SAR can capture high-resolution imagery and video through thick clouds, smoke, and complete darkness.

Capital raised will help ICEYE double its satellite manufacturing capacity from 50 satellites a year to 100 annually by 2028.

More importantly, the combination of Nokia’s 5G/AI network expertise with ICEYE’s satellite data aims to advance Europe's critical infrastructure, defense, and technological sovereignty.

This comes as EU finally wakes up to assuming responsibility for its own defense and self-interest, rather than be at the whims & fancy of its enstranged cousin.

Technical Analysis.

While it is great news that NOK is involved in many cutting-edge initiatives in the AI-age, what does all this means for individual investor ?

Is it time to re-look at NOK as a strategic investment ?

For that I defer to NOK’s technical analysis of (1) Simple moving average (SMA), (2) MACD and (3) RSI. Here’s what I have learnt. (see below)

As of 18 Jun 2026

(1) Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

On 18 Jun 2026, NOK ended the week at $13.49.

It is lower than its SMA of 20-day ($14.98) and higher than its 50-day SMA ($13.17) and 200-day SMA ($8.20).

This indicates NOK’s immediate trajectory is neutral with a short-term bearish bias, possibly a temporary pause or minor pullback.

Its mid to long term trajectory is within a strong, long-term bullish uptrend.

A strong "Golden Cross" formation has been sustained since 27 Oct 2025, confirming a macro bullish trend despite immediate short-term consolidation.

(2) MACD.

Both MACD line (0.14) and Signal line (0.47) are marginally above the Zero line.

However, with the MACD line lower than the Signal line, it suggests the stock's immediate trajectory is bearish, in-line with what NOK’s 20-day SMA exhibits.

With Divergence at -0.33; it means the MACD line is falling further below the Signal line, widening the gap.

(3) RSI.

With 14-day RSI at “45.32” - NOK is in the lower half of the neutral band of 30 - 70, indicating selling pressure has actively outpace buying pressure over the trailing 2 weeks.

This shifts the near term power dynamic to the bears.

Summary.

The rest of June 2026 should be able provide a “clearer” picture of whether investing in NOK will be for the long haul or it is time to be patient and wait until the SMA is aligned with the MACD and RSI.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

NOK represents a classic market-disconnect opportunity.

If we look at NOK through its legacy metrics: it appears to be an expensive, slow-growth hardware vendor tied to a matured 5G cycle.

However, looking at its modern operational footprint reveals a debt-contained engine sitting at the exact intersection of (a) the AI infrastructure super-cycle, (b) optical data routing, and (c) 6G software architecture.

Even with recent short-term market profit-taking pulling the stock into the mid-$13 to low-$14 range from its multi-month peak of $16.85.

NOK has shown massive relative strength.

Following the recent -20% US market pullback, NOK also fell in tandem with the stock resetting its technical base. (see below)

NOK - 02 Mar 2026 - 18 Jun 2026

A comparative closer look at NOK, reveals a ‘surprise’.

Since the start of the Middle East conflict on 28 Feb 2023, NOK has actually gain +63.32% in its stock price vs $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 3 months plus negative performance of -6.64%.

Needless to say, NOK has been on a tear, making the technical “bearish” indication acceptable to a certain extent, no ?

With institutional targets sitting firmly in the $20 - $22 range, this represents an estimated +40% to +50% potential upside.

Nokia deserves a serious 2nd look for investors seeking a well-capitalized, lower-volatility play on global AI data infrastructure. Agree ?

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