To The Moon

My Journey SoFi.

Readers who have been reading my posts for a while will know that I am holding US digital bank $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ for sometime now.

And, I have the posts to prove it too : (ha, ha, ha)

• 01 May 2026 - SoFi Tumbles Despite 2x Earnings. Why ?

• 09 Feb 2026 - SoFi - Strong Q4 is a BUY despite pullback now.

• 18 Dec 2025 - SoFi Dips: Buy the Growth, Ignore the Noise.

Mid Year Review.

Unfortunately, the banking stock has been suffering from malaise since the start of 2026.

It has been one of 2026’s most punished fintechs.

Its shares are currently down -36.56% YTD (as of 17 Jun 2026), even though its underlying business posted record numbers. (see below)

According to 24/7 Wall Street,

• They believe recent selloff has overshot the basic fundamentals.

• The “fair” price target for SoFi is $19.10 /share.

• This translates to an +9.64% upside from the $17.42 close.

• The recommendation is “Buy”, with high confidence at 90%.

Brutal H1 2026.

SoFi entered 2026 near $26.44 and slid as low as $14.23 on its 52-week low before stabilizing.

As of 17 Jun 2026, shares are:

• Up +10.88% over the past month.

• Up +13.41% over the past year.

• But it still sits -36% below its peak of $32.73.

The disconnect with fundamentals is striking.

Q1 2026 Earnings.

• Revenue of $1.10 billion beat estimates by +4.87%. (see below)

• EPS of $0.12 matched market consensus. (see below)

• GAAP net income jumped +134.45% YoY to $166.73 million.

• Loan originations hit a record $12.18 billion, up +68% YoY.

• Deposits reached $40.24 billion.

Case for SoFI’s $24 Per Share.

The bull thesis writes itself if investors trust management’s guidance.

So far, the management has delivered what it promises quarter-on-quarter. Really, is/are there any reason/s to doubt ?

For FY 2026, SoFi has guided :

• An adjusted revenue to $4.655 billion (about +30% growth).

• An adjusted EBITDA near $1.6 billion at a +34% margin.

• This, plus a medium-term framework calling for (a) +30% revenue CAGR and (b) 38% - 42% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2028.

Other favourable catalysts stacking up includes:

• The SoFiUSD stablecoin with Mastercard settlement. (see above)

• Crypto trading rollout.

• Big Business Banking, and a Loan Platform Business that added $3.6 billion in new commitments last quarter.

What CEO Says:

SoFi’s CEO Anthony Noto has said the strategy is “delivering a winning combination of growth and returns”.

And SoFi’s bull case price is $24.73, that’s a +37.77% return (based on 17 Jun 2026’s closing price), deemed achievable especially if the multiple rerates on Financial Services revenue growth (currently +41% YoY).

What CEO Did:

To prove he means what he has said, Noto has been buying SoFI’s shares regularly and the pattern is hard to ignore.

• Noto’s first buy in 2026 was on 02 Mar 2026, when he acquired 56,000 shares at a weighted average of $17.88, spending over $1 million in a single trade. 

• 2 weeks later, on 17 Mar 2026, he added 28,900 shares at $17.32 for another $500,500.

• On 8 May 2026, his third purchase were 15,878 shares at average $15.73, amounting to $249,760 in total.

• On 11 May 2026 (3 days on), he further added 15,545 shares at $16.00, totalling $248,720.

• Incidentally, the May 2026 purchases of the stock near its 2026 lows.

• According to a Form 4 filed with the SEC, on 16 Jun 2026, Noto has picked up another 13,888 shares at a weighted average price of $18.06. 

In total, Noto has purchased 130,211 shares in 2026 (so far) at a blended average price of about $17.29.

He now holds approximately 11.96 million SoFi shares directly.

The purchase adds roughly $250,800 to a 2026 insider buying total that now sits at approx. $2.25 million across 5 separate transactions, all open-market purchases, no awards.

SoFi’s Falling Catalyst.

According to the media, SoFi’s recent fall is due to bears point to real issues.

(1) The CHYM exit.

The Technology Platform segment fell -27% YoY after its large client (Chime Financials) departed in February 2026, enabled accounts dropped -16% YoY, and net interest margin compressed by 63 basis points.

However, Chime paid $18 million contract termination fee directly to SoFi's Galileo segment, cushioning loss of revenue impact, no - not to mention another $17 million to prep and migrate Chime’s data to the rightful owner and miscellaneous charges.

Credit metrics are softening too, with personal loan charge-offs ticking up to +3.03%.

(2) Muddy Waters - return of the Short Seller.

In late April 2026, Muddy Waters (an activist short-seller investment management firm and hedge fund) released a short seller report on SoFi, alleging accounting issues and mis management of a large JPMorgan loan.

It accused SoFi of using "Enron-esque" accounting and improper loan management to inflate earnings and conceal debt.

This allegedly resulted in a $312 million misstatement.

For investors, the key issue is how the accusations levied against SoFi's management is going to be addressed by regulators, auditors, and the courts.

The outcome will definitely influence how market views SoFi's governance, disclosure quality, and ability to focus on execution while dealing with an elevated level of public scrutiny.

Well, since the scathing report was out in mid-March 2026, there is zero reactions so far.

Suffice to say, if by end June 2026 inactivity remains, it is safe to assume that Muddy Waters proved to be nothing but a scam reporter, out to make a quick buck.

(3) Fed’s Interest rate.

On 17 Jun 2026, the June 2026 FOMC meeting wrapped up, under the stewardship of new Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

For June 2026, US Federal reserves is keeping interest rate unchanged (3.5%-3.75%) since December 2025.

What’ s more, as Warsh delivered his maiden (hawkish) speech, US market fell in tandem as he mentioned “price stability” on about a dozen occasions, enabling market to assume that there will be at least one interest rate hike in 2026.

This does not bode well for SoFi whose humble beginnings centred on loans when the company benefitted from previously low interest rates and a strong consumer environment.

With inflation rising to a 3-year high and interest rates not only remaining stubbornly elevated, but now with a firm possibility of it being hike, any financial institutions engaged in lending will be concerned.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

I think SoFi has all the makings of a misunderstood stock.

Being a smaller outfit at the moment, I feel and think it has more upside potential than many think.

The risk-reward dynamics look extremely attractive now,

Does a Buy opportunity exists ?

So, is it time for a buy-in ?

For that, I look at SoFi’s technical indicators of (a) Simple moving averages, (b) MACD and (c) RSI for directions as usual. (see below)

(1) Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

On 17 Jun 2026, SoFi ended the day at $14.72 per share; lower than its SMA of 20-day ($16.74), 50-day ($16.91) and 200-day ($22.74).

It signals a strong downtrend with bearish trajectory across all timeframes.

With the “death cross” still in formation, SoFi is still “trapped” in a classic bearish signal that often leads to weaker follow-through on rallies.

(2) MACD.

The good news coming out of the MACD readings are a ‘possible’ bullish moment is emerging.

The MACD line (0.14) is above both the Signal line (0.03) and Zero line, hinting a positive momentum and a potential trend reversal from SoFi’s SMAs bearish trend.

Lastly, the positive Divergence (0.11), suggests buying pressure is strengthening despite stock price below the SMAs. This is an early sign that the downtrend may be exhausting.

(3) RSI.

With the 14-day RSI coming in at 54.87, SoFi is in neutral territory with slight bullish momentum.

It is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting the stock is in a consolidation phase with potential to move upward.

Parting Thoughts.

After all the research, I still cannot understand why US market is punishing SoFi, when the fintech bank is (a) reporting record-breaking earnings and (b) its CEO is spending millions in shares buyback out of his own pocket.

What is true ?

(1) Regular investors are panicking over temporary bad news, OR (2) the market actually sees deep, hidden risks that the company's strong numbers are hiding. Your thoughts ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• Do you think SoFi is structurally sound as a fintech digital bank ?

• Do you think SoFi will be able to return to its sweet spot of $32 by the time Q2 2026 earnings come around?

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