To The Moon

A 3.8% drop alone would not be enough for me to change my view on Alphabet.

The key issue is whether the market believes AI capex is creating long-term value faster than it is consuming capital. If Alphabet can maintain strong growth in Search, Cloud, YouTube and AI services, a temporary increase in spending is easier to justify.

What matters more than the share issuance headline is:

Whether AI revenue growth accelerates.

Whether Google Cloud margins remain healthy.

Whether Gemini and AI-powered Search monetise successfully.

Whether capex growth eventually slows relative to revenue growth.

For a long-term investor, I would become increasingly interested if the pullback expanded into the 10-15% range from recent highs, assuming fundamentals remained intact. At that point, sentiment may be pricing in capex fears more than business deterioration.

Among the hyperscalers, Alphabet still arguably offers one of the strongest combinations of:

Dominant search franchise

Large cloud business

AI leadership

Net cash balance sheet

The risk is not that Google lacks AI capability. The risk is that the market starts treating AI as a capital-intensive utility business rather than a high-margin software platform.

So my stance would be: interested on a deeper correction, but not rushing after a single-day 3.8% decline. If AI spending continues to produce revenue growth, today's dilution concerns could look minor in hindsight. If returns on AI investment disappoint, even a larger pullback may not be enough.