KOSPI Hits Circuit-Breaker! JPMorgan Targets 10,000: SK Hynix and Samsung are Better Choices?
$KOSPI$ surged more than 5% intraday today, triggering a circuit breaker.
SK Hynix jumped +12% to above ₩1.89M, +185% YTD. Samsung rose +6%, crossing the $1 trillion market cap threshold, +139% YTD.
JPMorgan's latest strategy report names Korea its top pick in Asia-Pacific, raising the KOSPI target to 9,000 (base) / 10,000 (bull).
KOSPI has hit 77 all-time highs this year. Korea's MSCI EM weight has risen to >21%, nearly matching China at 22%.
AI arms race: Global AI compute expansion is bottlenecked at HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). SK Hynix is the world's dominant HBM4 supplier — full-year capacity is sold out, customers are already pre-booking 2027 supply. Samsung HBM is equally constrained.
Historic earnings: Samsung Q1 2026 operating profit: ₩57.2 trillion, +750% YoY — one quarter exceeding all of last year. SK Hynix net profit +400% YoY. JPMorgan forecasts storage sector 2026 EPS at roughly 5x the 2025 level.
"Korea discount" unwinding: Korea's government launched a Corporate Value-Up program — mandatory treasury stock cancellations, dividend tax incentives, removal of foreign investment restrictions. The structural valuation discount is being systematically closed.
Apple + Physical AI: Apple is reportedly in talks for Samsung's US fab to manufacture Apple main processors. NVIDIA's robotics and autonomous driving expansion has Samsung and Hynix deeply embedded as hardware suppliers.
Why JPMorgan Says "Far From Peak"?
Storage stocks are already 50% of KOSPI's weight and contributed ~70% of YTD gains. Sounds dangerously concentrated? JPMorgan disagrees:
HBM TAM is accelerating: 2026E $65.7B → 2027E $109.9B → 2028E $185.7B (YoY +69%). Supply is locked in multi-quarter pricing agreements. The volume + price expansion story extends through 2027-2028.
AI monetization bottleneck clearing: Global token consumption growth jumped from 10x to >15x YoY, driven by agentic AI adoption. Upstream hardware pricing power continues to strengthen.
Valuations remain cheap: Samsung trades at a forward P/E of 6.1, SK Hynix at 5.6 — significant discount to US semiconductor peers.
What Are the Risks?
Concentration cuts both ways: storage at 50% of KOSPI means any HBM demand miss hits the entire index.
Tech sector EPS has been revised +278.5% over six months — expectations are already rich. Any quarterly miss triggers outsized volatility.
Geopolitical exposure: Korea's export structure is deeply tied to both the US and China, making trade policy and supply chain realignment an ongoing variable.
How to Get Exposure?
-2x leverage: $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ , $CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07747)$
- ETF: $iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$ (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF — Samsung + Hynix ~40% combined weight)
Have You Participated in the Korea Rally?
SK Hynix +185%, Samsung +139% YTD — at forward P/E of 5-6x, do you think these are still cheap for where we are in the AI cycle, or has the EPS outlook already been fully priced in?
JPMorgan targets KOSPI 10,000 from the current ~8,000 — a 25% move. Do you prefer direct Korean equity/ETF exposure, or playing the HBM cycle through $Micron Technology(MU)$/ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$?
HBM supply constraints are forecast to last through 2027-2028. What's your biggest concern — an unexpected slowdown in AI capex, or something else?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
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SK Hynix jumped +12% to above ₩1.89M, +185% YTD. Samsung rose +6%, crossing the $1 trillion market cap threshold, +139% YTD.
JPMorgan's latest strategy report names Korea its top pick in Asia-Pacific, raising the KOSPI target to 9,000 (base) / 10,000 (bull).
Personally, I prefer a mix of direct semiconductor exposure & $iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)exposure. SK Hynix has the strongest HBM positioning, but Korea as a whole may still be in the early stages of rerating compared with expensive US AI names.
My biggest concern is not AI demand slowing, but expectations getting too far ahead. If capacity expands too aggressively into 2027-2028, the market could start pricing in oversupply risks. But for now, earnings momentum and pricing power still look very strong.
@TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Performance: 7747.HK recently recorded a 25% daily surge. It also has a high expense ratio of 1.6%.
This product is not suitable to buy and hold long term. Due to volatility drag, holding it even during a sideways market can result in losses even if the stock price does not change.
A 10% drop in the underlying stock means a 20% wipeout. It is important to be right about the direction and timing.
7747.HK is the ultimate tool to bet on the sheer scale of Samsung's big comeback.
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars
These are not investments for the faint hearted. They are tactical lightning rods for capturing the absolute peak of the HBM mania in real time.
Both products are hitting record high as the memory chip market breaks its historical cyclical patterns.
SK Hynix is the world's HBM King. 7709.HK surged 17% in a single day as storage demand reached an earnings realisation phase. With AUM of over HKD40 billion, it is now the world's largest leveraged product targeting a single stock.
It is not suitable to buy and hold due to its leveraged nature.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
Historic earnings: Samsung Q1 2026 operating profit: ₩57.2 trillion, +750% YoY — one quarter exceeding all of last year. SK Hynix net profit +400% YoY. JPMorgan forecasts storage sector 2026 EPS at roughly 5x the 2025 level.