Will the Bullish Trend Continue? & Small Bets, Big Wins in Earnings Season
That's not an easy question to answer. But I checked the two perfectly timed insider large orders — $MU 20260618 400.0 CALL$ and $TSM 20260618 370.0 CALL$ — and neither has been closed. That suggests the trend could continue into earnings season.
What's different between Q2 and Q1? Aside from the war, Anthropic announced $30B+ annualized revenue. Unlike OpenAI's verbal bragging, this sharp growth gives the AI sector a real shot in the arm. It won't lift all tech stocks, but it does keep the narrative alive that AI investment can generate strong returns.
Anthropic's rapid rise is bad news for the software sector $IGV$, which is trending as weakly as Chinese tech stocks. Software names are great for selling into strength — easier said than done. But earnings season offers a good window. For most software companies, buying puts for a post-earnings crash is a reasonable small-bet play. If picking put strikes feels tricky, a bear call spread works too.
The S&P jumped to 680, signaling that the previous sell-put strategy is back on the table. If tail risk is a concern, adding a long put as a spread hedge makes sense.
$NVDA$
Whether NVDA can bounce back into the 180–190 range remains to be seen. The first step is holding 180. Selling the 170 put is worth considering: $NVDA 20260417 170.0 PUT$ .
$TSLA$
Tesla is in an awkward spot — full-on bear mode. The broader market rally didn't lift it. Probably because the fundamentals are that weak: deliveries missed expectations, and inventory is piling up. Some analysts are comparing the peak 2022 forecast (1.366M units) to current numbers (358K) and arguing the stock is still overvalued.
For now, watch if it can stabilize in the 330–340 range. This week's institutional bear call spread: sell 377.5 call $TSLA 20260410 377.5 CALL$ , buy 392.5 call $TSLA 20260410 392.5 CALL$ . Expect them to sell calls at 370 or 372.5 next week.
$INTC$
Intel is kicking off Q2 earnings season. Expect the same pattern as last quarter: run-up into print, then a post-earnings gap down. The stock is likely headed to 60–65. There are large orders at $INTC 20260424 60.0 CALL$ and $INTC 20260515 65.0 CALL$ .
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