To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$  $BlackSky Technology Inc.(BKSY)$  🚀📈🛰️ SpaceX IPO Shockwave: USD 1.75 Trillion Valuation Targets Largest Listing in History as Starlink Economics and Launch Dominance Collide with Extreme Multiple Risk 🛰️📈🚀

SpaceX has confidentially filed its draft IPO registration with the SEC, confirming internal alignment for a potential June listing under the codename Project Apex. I’m seeing clear evidence of institutional-scale preparation, with a 21-bank underwriting syndicate already engaged and April investor briefings scheduled to frame the equity story.

Bloomberg indicates the raise could exceed USD 75 billion at a valuation north of USD 1.75 trillion. I’m framing this as a category-defining event that would eclipse Saudi Aramco’s USD 29 billion debut and reset capital formation benchmarks globally.

I’m anchoring the valuation debate on three structural drivers.

First, Starlink is no longer a speculative asset. I’m looking at over 9 million subscribers translating into high-margin, recurring cash flow with embedded operating leverage. 2025 group revenue near USD 15 billion looks achievable, with Starlink carrying the majority of earnings power through global expansion and defence-linked Starshield contracts already tied into Pentagon budget frameworks.

Second, launch economics remain structurally unmatched. Falcon 9’s recovery rate exceeding 90% across hundreds of missions has permanently altered cost curves. I’m viewing this as the foundation of SpaceX’s pricing power across both commercial and national security payloads, while simultaneously funding Starship’s heavy-lift ambitions without relying on external capital markets.

Third, vertical integration is the moat. I’m seeing a fully closed-loop system spanning manufacturing, launch, satellite deployment, and ground infrastructure. That level of control is something fragmented competitors simply cannot replicate at scale.

I’m not ignoring valuation tension. At over 100× forward sales, this sits well beyond traditional aerospace or infrastructure comps. I’m interpreting that premium as a direct market bet on exponential scaling, not linear growth. The integration with xAI introduces an orbital compute narrative, but it also raises legitimate questions around capital allocation discipline and leadership bandwidth.

Execution risk remains real and measurable. I’m tracking Starship development timelines, regulatory friction across global spectrum allocation, and the capital intensity required to sustain deep-space ambitions. Competitive pressure from Amazon’s Kuiper constellation also cannot be dismissed as trivial.

What offsets this is momentum. I’m seeing accelerating launch cadence, expanding government backlog, and a structural global shift toward space-based infrastructure that is still in its early innings.

This filing does more than signal an IPO. I’m viewing it as a repricing mechanism for the entire commercial space sector, effectively opening a public-market gateway into a vertically integrated aerospace and connectivity platform that has, until now, been restricted to private capital.

The timeline matters. June positioning, Nasdaq rule flexibility around large-cap inclusion, and dual-class structures preserving founder control all point to a highly engineered market entry.

I’m left with one core question driving the investment case. Does the market reward dominance and inevitability, or does it demand proof of profitability at scale before accepting a USD 1.75 trillion valuation?

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